The 2014 World Cup Group of Death

By Blaidd Drwg

Much has been written about the U.S. being in the “group of death” in the upcoming World Cup, but I happened to be reading a WC preview and realized that it isn’t so much a group of death as the U.S is in a group with two good teams and two middle of the road teams and they are not one of the good ones.  Sure Germany is pretty much going through to the knockout round, but is Portugal, give their history of fading in international competitions, really a shoe it, leaving the U.S. out of the knockout stage? Is this group any more the “group of death” than Group B with Spain, Chile (who are better than you think), The Netherlands and Australia.

It got me thinking, which group is actually the group you don’t want to be playing in?

Let’s take a look at the groups. The SPI ranking is the ESPN ranking and the odds are the percentage of times a team advanced in their simulation.

Group A

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Brasil 4 1 99%
Mexico 19 25 44%
Croatia 20 30 34%
Cameroon 50 38 23%
Average Rank 23.25 23.5  

 

Obviously, Brasil is making it to the knockout stage and if they don’t the entire country is going to burn, so you really won’t have to worry about the rest of the tournament. The other spot is really between Mexico and Croatia, and that one could go either way. Cameroon has a chance, albeit a small one to sneak in. A tough group with 1 powerhouse and 2 middle of the road teams and 1 team happy to be there. Hardly a group of death, well, unless you are Cameroon or the team that finishes third.

Group B

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Spain 1 3 85%
Chile 13 5 71%
Netherlands 15 10 38%
Australia 59 40 7%
Average Rank 22 14.5  

 

Spain should have no problem going through and Australia is happy to be there. It is going to be a tough battle between Netherlands and Chile for that second spot. ESPN likes Chile, I like Netherlands here, but don’t be surprised if it comes down to the Chile-Netherlands game on 6/23 and the final is something like 4-3. This group as a whole is going to light up the scoreboard. A candidate, just not a strong one for the group of death moniker.

Group C

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Colombia 5 6 85%
Ivory Coast 21 16 48%
Greece 10 27 46%
Japan 47 36 22%
Average Rank 20.75 21.25  

 

Here is a group that there is really no clear favorite. Colombia is good, but is by no means a team that I think is a shoe-in for a spot. Japan is not as bad as people think and they could give the other teams in this group a run for their money. Ivory Coast is inconsistent and Greece is old, so who knows how they will hold up in the Brasilan sun. If you want to know who is going to advance in this group, you might as well pick names out of a hat.

Group D

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Uruguay 6 8 60%
England 11 9 56%
Italy 9 12 46%
Costa Rica 34 24 38%
Average Rank 15 13.25  

 

This is far and away the most balanced group in the tournament. Any two teams have a legitimate shot at advancing, especially given the complete inconsistency of both England and Italy on the international stage in recent years. Any one of these 4 teams could conceivably get through to the knockout round and don’t be surprised if it ends up being Uruguay and Costa Rica. I could probably make an argument that this qualifies for a group of death if this was 20 years ago, but England and Italy are playing more on reputation right now than actual skill.

Group E

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
France 17 7 77%
Ecuador 26 11 62%
Switzerland 6 22 38%
Honduras 33 33 23%
Average Rank 20.5 18.25  

 

Another balanced group due to the horribly overrated France who are going to be missing their 2 best players for the World Cup. Again, any of these 4 teams could make it through and the Swiss are young and aggressive and, if they beat France, will probably advance with Ecuador. Probably the toughest group to be in.

Group F

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Argentina 5 2 93%
Bosnia 21 15 48%
Nigeria 44 28 37%
Iran 43 39 22%
Average Rank 28.25 18.25  

 

ESPN likes the teams more than the FIFA rankings do in this group. Argentina is arguably the best team in the world, so it would take an act of God for them not to make it through. Iran is just happy to be there. Bosnia and Nigeria, in just about any group would probably be a good bet to move through to the knockout stage, but they are going to be competing against each other to survive this group. Both of those teams are better than you think and whoever makes it through has a good chance to possibly win a game or two in the knockout round. You definitely have 3 teams who would be close to locks to make it if you could have that.

Group G

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Germany 2 4 87%
Portugal 4 14 47%
USA 13 21 35%
Ghana 37 26 31%
Average Rank 14 16.25  

 

What you have here is Germany who just needs to show up to advance. Portugal doesn’t seem like they ever show up for these international tournaments – they are almost as talented as Germany but play so inconsistently that they aren’t a great bet to even make it out of the group stage. The other two teams, USA and Ghana are both plagued by inconsistency also, so who knows. It is a case where any one of the non-German teams can make a case to get through, but I don’t think that in most of these groups, any of those teams would be the second best team there. A tough group if you are not Germany, but not quite a group of death.

Group H

Team FIFA Rank SPI Rank SPI Odds
Belgium 11 13 73%
Russia 19 17 68%
South Korea 57 31 43%
Algeria 22 69 16%
Average Rank 27.25 32.25  

 

This group is probably the worst in the tournament. Belgium probably finishes at best second in any other group and I don’t think that any of the other teams would get through in any other group. This is where you probably would want to play if you were a team like the US – getting through wouldn’t be much of an issue.

For what it is worth, I think Group E is really the group of death in this tournament and I think that Brasil beats Argentina 4-2 in an insane final.

Beer of the Week: Big Time Whiny the Complainer

By Iron Chef Leftovers

One of the beers that I usually wait for every year is Big Time Brewing’s Imperial IPA, Whiny the Complainer (take a guess what that it a play on words referring to). They were one of the first Seattle breweries to put out a Pliny clone and it usually sells out quickly despite being a big beer, mostly because it is brewed once a year in a relatively small batch. The nice thing is that it is also available in 22 oz. bottles at the tap room upon release for $15. This year, the alcohol was dialed back a bit to 9.4% ABV (it is usually over 10%). This review is for the bottled version of the beer.

From the Big Time website:

A triple IPA that has more of everything. Alcohol and hops dominate the flavor of this intense bitter treat. Hops include Cascade, Magnum, Columbus, Simcoe, Amarillo, Cetennial, Nelson Sauvin.  OG 22 ( Plato1.088),  9. alcohol by volume. Brew # 2,300.

indexThe beer pours hazy orange brown in color with a significant amount of citrus peel on the nose with hints of grain and just a touch of spice hiding in the background. The beer starts out on the palate with a bit of sweetness which lingers a few seconds until it is joined by a significant orange presence and just a touch of bitter orange peel. The finish is fairly low key considering the size of the beer, with touches of bitterness and orange peel and just a touch of resin bringing a bit of burn to the back of the throat. The finish is long but not overpowering, which is a nice change for an Imperial IPA. The beer drinks fine, but not as big and hoppy as it has been in the past and I was expecting more from it based on past experience and the cost of the beer. It was a fine beer, but disappointing compared to its past incarnations.

Big Time Brewing’s Whiny the Complainer steps up to the window and files 2 complaint forms out of 5.

The World Cup!

by A.J. Coltrane

The best quadrennial event is here again!

TV Schedule.

USA:

Monday, June 16 at 3pm, Ghana [ESPN]

Sunday, June 22 at 3pm, Portugal [ESPN]

Thursday, June 26 at 9am, Germany [ESPN]

The DVR will be getting a workout!

—————————————-

For fun, Bill Barnwell’s Grantland piece about transfer values of teams and players. (Transfer values are how much one team would need to pay another to assume a player’s contract.)

A couple of snippets-

Most valuable teams:

Team Rank Value Avg Value
Spain 1 $919,564,800 $39,981,078
Germany 2 $777,638,400 $33,810,365
Brazil 3 $691,152,000 $30,050,087
Argentina 4 $578,793,600 $25,164,939
France 5 $560,683,200 $24,377,530

The Spanish players are worth nearly 1 billion dollars in aggregate. The USA is 26th at $85 millon. Total.

Most valuable players, relative to the least valuable teams:

Player/Team Value
Ivory Coast $180,438,720
Lionel Messi $177,408,000
Cameroon $173,735,520
Bosnia and Herzegovina $169,948,800
Cristiano Ronaldo $147,840,000
Japan $144,883,200
Mexico $142,716,000
Ghana $142,450,560
Nigeria $128,399,040
Greece $118,120,800
Ecuador $91,022,400
Neymar; Edinson Cavani $88,704,000
USA $85,448,160

An especially relevant Barnwell quote:

Maybe Jurgen Klinsmann is right. For all the chatter about Klinsmann dropping Landon Donovan for the promise of Julian Green, this isn’t a particularly young United States team, as the U.S. side heading to Brazil is the 12th-oldest of the 32. It’s also not a side teeming with valuable properties. The team’s two most valuable players are Clint Dempsey ($10.3 million) and Michael Bradley ($9.6 million), each of whom have returned to North America over the past 12 months. The third is Jozy Altidore ($8.8 million), who was a disaster this season after Sunderland paid $13 million for him, scoring just once in the Premier League before being supplanted by Connor Wickham and sent to the youth team. Tim Howard is 35. Jermaine Jones is 32. And Transfermarkt doesn’t see younger talents like Green ($840,000) and DeAndre Yedlin ($420,000) as worth much yet. You may disagree, and a few players may emerge as more valuable properties if the U.S. makes it out of the group stage, but this just isn’t a very valuable U.S. team.

According to the piece the average age of the starting 11’s is… well, here:

Five youngest: Belgium (25.2), South Korea (25.6), Nigeria (25.7), Ghana (26.0), Germany. Five oldest: Ivory Coast (30.4), Portugal (29.3), Honduras (29.2), USA (29.1), Iran (29.1). AT LEAST WE’RE YOUNGER THAN YOU, HONDURAS!

I’d expect the USA team to get younger over the next couple of World Cups as new talent is infused into the roster. We’ll know that the USA is going to be competitive when the average age is closer to 27, rather than 29. (Which is basically what we talked about in the May, 2010 CSE post “Beer Leagues and Major Leagues“.)

———-

More stuff:

Barnwell’s piece on the youngest players at the World Cup. It’s soccer’s future (and present) stars. I’ll be paying special attention to them, assuming that they get on the field. Neymar is #15, adjusted for the age of the rest of the Brazil squad.

The odds of winning the whole shebang:

Brazil: 7/2
Argentina: 5/1
Germany: 6/1
Spain: 8/1

Belgium: 16/1
Colombia: 22/1
France: 24/1
Italy: 29/1
Netherlands: 29/1
England: 29/1
Uruguay: 31/1
Portugal: 39/1

Chile: 59/1

Russia: 89/1

Switzerland: 129/1
Ecuador: 149/1
Mexico: 149/1
Japan: 189/1
Ivory Coast: 189/1
Bosnia: 219/1

Croatia: 279/1
Ghana: 279/1

USA: 299/1

Nigeria: 309/1
Greece: 359/1

South Korea: 519/1

Australia: 809/1

Cameroon: 999/1
Algeria: 999/1
Iran: 999/1
Costa Rica: 999/1
Honduras: 999/1

Pea “Pesto”

by A.J. Coltrane

Pea “pesto” on a baguette. It’s this bread with these peas and basil:

140611 pea pesto

Ingredients with approximate volumes:

Super Sugar Snap Peas and Basil at a 1/1 ratio.

Goat cheese (about 1/3 of the total peas and basil)

Dash of Salt, Glug of Olive Oil

 

Super Fresh Ingredients That I Don’t Screw Up = a well received little plate.

I’m not planning to raise goats or grow wheat, so this is as close to truly homemade as it’s ever going to get. It’s sorta satisfying to get even that close.

Beer of the Week: Reuben’s Brews Yirgacheffe Rye

By Iron Chef Leftovers

untitled2One of the highlights of the last couple Seattle Beer Weeks has been Ryefest at Reuben’s. They go all out and brew a bunch of different rye based beers that many of which are generally only available that weekend since they are small batch and it is a popular event. This year’s Ryefest brought us a total of 12 rye beers including the impossible to pronounce Yirgacheffe Rye, which is a coffee from Ethiopia. The beer clocked in at 32 IBU and 5.4% ABV and I believe was based on the American Rye.

The beer pours hazy yellow in color with a touch of white on the head. Touches of coffee, rye and grain dominate the nose of this beer. It starts off on the palate with light notes of lemon peel and hops before adding a touch of sweetness from the rye, with just hints of bite, finishing with a very mild coffee note with a touch of bitterness and hints of chocolate and dried fruit. The beer is light and crisp and easy to drink with a very nice hint of coffee that does not overpower the other flavors in the beer. It is also a nice change of pace from coffee stouts and porters that allows you to drink something lighter and still enjoy the nuances of the coffee contained within the beer.

Reuben’s  Yirgacheffe Rye takes out the jeep and goes on safari with 4 Seregetis out of 5.

Pop Up Beer Tasting Notes

By Iron Chef Leftovers

I cracked open a couple of bottles of IPA tonight because I needed them. They were not exactly the freshest IPA’s in my collection. I will be honest, I was fully expecting to just dump these beers. This is something I wrote on facebook in my personal account:

My aged IPA experiment (ok, it was more that I forgot about the bottles) is surprisingly a success. A couple of nearly 2 year old IPA’s are surprisingly good – malty with just a touch of hops. The American Captian Munson (which is probably closer to 1 than 2), is really complex and delicious. The Seven Brides FrankenLou is nice but horribly overcarbonated. There might be hope for my DFH 120 minute IPA’s in the cellar yet!

The American Captain Munson is probably about 18 months old. It was malty with hints of hop character and as it warmed it had an amazing dried fruit (cherries, figs) finish that really made me wish I had another bottle. I like Captain Munson fresh, I really liked it aged (keep in mind the beer is being kept between 58 and 64 degrees in my basement) and think that I might actually try this again with this beer. I wish I had taken notes on this.

The Seven Brides is good, but the beer is horribly overcarbonated and I think it may have actually been infected with some Belgian yeast that went to happy town in the bottle. The beer is drinking nicely (it was bottled on 4/12/12 according to the bottle) but it has a bunch of Belgain fruity esters going on and actually is drinking like a slightly hoppy Belgian Brown. I actually have no point of comparison on this beer as it was one I bought in Portland a few years back without trying and never opened, but they are distributing now in Seattle, so I may have to pick one up.

As for the DFH reference – I have a few bottles of Dogfish Head 120 Minute IPA in the cellar, I believe vintage 2011 and 2012. I can never seem to find the sweet spot on this beer as it seems that when I open it, it is either too hot or has that cardboard flavor. I think I am going to take the oldest bottle and just let it go for 3 or 4 more years to see what happens with it.

Hope springs eternal.

Beer of the Week: Maritime Pacific Lady Jane Bitter

By Iron Chef Leftovers

maritime_logoWith all of the love that I give to the Ballard breweries, there is one that up until this point (200+ beer reviews) that has never appeared in this space, which is disappointing, because they are a) on of the oldest breweries in Seattle and b) a place that the Mrs. and I go to on somewhat on a regular basis, albeit for food not necessarily the beer. Maritime Pacific has a great tap room/restaurant and I highly recommend them for their excellent and inexpensive pub fare and their solid but unspectacular beers. They have a pretty consistent tap lineup and brew pretty much to style, so you won’t find a bunch of super hoppy imperial IPA’s or weird adjuncts in their beer, just solid, straight forward, refreshing suds. I started off a tasting tray with the Lady Jane Bitter.
The beer pours medium tan in color with an off-white head. Notes of grain and caramel dominate the nose with just a hint of hops hiding in the background. The beer starts off on the palate slightly sweet with a nice amount of grain before moving into light caramel and toasted malt flavor with notes of caraway and rye. The beer finishes short with a slight bitterness that comes and goes quickly coupled with touches of sweetness and caramel on the finish. Drinks a bit differently than you would expect from a bitter, but it was easy to drink, tasty and smooth.

Maritime Lady Jane Bitter pours a long, cool 3 women in a red dress out of 5.

The Right Tool For Slashing Bread Dough — II

by A.J. Coltrane

Previous post here. It seems I revisit this “problem” periodically.

For reference, the last attempt:

I took the picture on the floor because that was the best light at that hour. Naturally, it drew some interest.
I took the picture on the floor because that was the best light at that hour. Naturally, it drew some interest.

And today’s:

140609 bread

The Differences:

1.  Fewer slashes on this attempt. The slashes were more “lengthwise” and less “across”.

2.  The slashes were at a slight angle to the dough. Maybe 30-45 degrees or so. Last time they were perpendicular to the countertop.

3.  Prior to this attempt I reread an earlier CSE post. In that post I noted that I’d read that it was best to keep the slashes in the middle 3rd of the dough. (In other words, I tried to not slash all the way to the edges of the dough this time.) The real advantage of documenting this stuff is the searchable notes.

4.  The breads received less steam on this attempt, resulting in darker loaves and a thicker crust — they got steam for 5 minutes rather than 10 minutes. The steam was in the form of a small amount of water in a roasting pan underneath the loaves. [For reference:  450 degrees. 5 minutes with steam, 10 minutes without steam, then turn the loaves around and bake for another 10 minutes. 25 minutes total.]

In any event, I think that this time they were way closer to what I have in mind as “correct”.

Top Chef Duels

By Iron Chef Leftovers

Top Chef has apparently abandoned the all-star concept and is instead going with a head-to-head competition involving former contestants. From reading the description, it sounds like this is going to be Top Chef Chopped with a twist, that being:

Rivalries will be intensified as “Top Chef Duels” ups the ante and allows the competing chefs to each pick one mini-duel based on the other’s perceived weaknesses in the kitchen.

I like that they are getting both regular and all-star contestants, but I would have liked to have seen all the matchups as regular vs. masters.

Here are the matchups:

Episode 101: Richard Blais (Top Chef Chicago runner- up and Top Chef All-Stars winner) vs. Marcel Vigneron (Top Chef Season 2 runner up) – I like this matchup with two molecular gastronomy guys going at it. I would have loved to see either Blais or Vigneron against Wylie Dufresne, but this one is going to be good. I think Blais wins it in a close battle.

Episode 102: Shirley Chung (Top Chef New Orleans finalist) vs. Brooke Williamson (Top Chef Seattle runner up) – Chung didn’t impress me on TS-NOLA and I thought that Williamson was going to win TS-Seattle, so I think it is pretty clear how I think this is going to end up. I would have loved to see Williamson against Naomi Pomeroy or Anita Lo here.

Episode 103: Mike Isabella (Top Chef All-Stars runner up) vs. Antonia Lofaso (Top Chef Chicago finalist) – both of these two are very underrated cooks and I think this is going to end up being a fun matchup and I think Isabella is going to prevail. Would love to see one of them against someone like Jon Waxman.

Episode 104: CJ Jacobson (Top Chef Miami contestant) vs. Stefan Richter (Top Chef Season 5 runner up) – there is going to be a ton of trash talk in this competition and I think that CJ takes this one with Stefan complaining the whole time.  Would be cool if this one had Jacobson or Richter against Tom Colicchio.

Episode 105: David Burke (Top Chef Masters Season 5) vs. Takashi Yagihashi (Top Chef Masters Season 4) – master vs. master here, I think that Yagihashi takes it. Would have liked to see one of them square off with one of the Voltaggios or Sheldon Simeon.

Episode 106: Tiffani Faison (Top Chef Season 1 runner up) vs. Dale Talde (Top Chef Chicago and Top Chef All-Star contestant) – another tough call with two great chefs, but I think Talde will squeak out a victory. How about a battle against Chris Cosentino here?

Episode 107: Nyesha Arrington (Top Chef Texas contestant) vs. Jen Carroll (Top Chef Las Vegas finalist) – Nyesha annoyed the crap out of me and doesn’t strike me a great chef but Jen Carroll is, so I don’t think this one will be close. Fun would be Carroll against Rick Moonen. Really fun would be Carroll against Eric Ripert, her mentor.

Episode 108: Stephanie Izard (Top Chef Chicago winner) vs. Kristen Kish (Top Chef Seattle winner) – another really great battle, although I think that Kish got an easier road to winning TS-Seattle by plowing through last chance kitchen. Izard is the better cook and I think she wins, but I would love to see either of them square off against Mary Sue Milliken or Tracy Desjardins.

Episode 109: Kevin Gillespie (Top Chef Las Vegas fan favorite) vs. Art Smith (Top Chef Masters Season 1) – the battle of the beards and finally a master vs. regular battle, and they definitely got the matchup right. Both of these guys do home-style southern so it should be fun and probably involve a ton of pork products. I think Gillespie wins though.

Episode 110: Championship Finale – has me wondering how this is going to work. You have 9 winners from the previous episodes. If I had to guess who takes the competition overall not knowing how this is going to be presented, I am putting my money on Stephanie Izard.

The show premiers on August 6th.