The Election Is Near!

by A.J. Coltrane

No, not that one. To quote SI’s Grant Wahl:

What are your thoughts on how the Sounders are handling the vote to retain or fire GM Adrian Hanauer?
— Matt Koppelman

I love it. The lowdown: On Oct. 7, Seattle season ticket holders will begin voting yay or nay in a vote of confidence on Hanauer. If he gets less than 50 percent support, Hanauer is out as GM. If he gets more than 50 percent, he stays. It’s the first vote of its kind in U.S. sports, and the idea came from the team’s part owner, the comedian Drew Carey.

“I was doing a show for the Travel Channel on the Barcelona-Real Madrid rivalry,” Carey told me last year. “In the Barcelona museum I talked to a guard, and he said there was an election coming up. Every four years they have an election for the president of the club. I said, ‘Are you kidding me? I’d like to see George Steinbrenner do that. I would love to bring that to the U.S.'”

When Carey first met Joe Roth, now Seattle’s principal owner, “All we did was talk soccer the whole lunch,” said Carey, who ended up signing on with him to invest in a new MLS team in Seattle. “I spent the whole time telling him about fans voting their president out. … The fans will do the dirty work for you. I always gave the Detroit Lions as an example: Matt Millen. He was there so long and made so many bad picks, but the Lions’ owners didn’t care. In my system with the Sounders, the fans could have fired Matt Millen.

“Joe bought into it, and we worked out the system. The vote is every four years. If the fans want to, they can get 20 percent of the members to sign a petition, and then they can have the vote any year they want.”

Granted, the stakes of the upcoming vote aren’t as high as they could be for Hanauer, who would remain as a part-owner of the Sounders even if he’s tossed out as the general manager. Then again, I expect Hanauer will receive a vote of confidence: Seattle has been a tremendous success story in terms of fan interest and on-field success, especially in winning three U.S. Open Cups from 2009-11. The next big hurdle is for the Sounders to win their first MLS playoff series.

As for the four-year term – it’s on the short end of reasonable for soccer, since highly drafted players should be close to performing with the “big club” soon after their acquisition. If franchises were to try something like this in baseball it would require a six or seven year term — it takes the cumulative effects of multiple drafts and trades over a period of years to determine if the GM is competent or not. (However, if M’s fans could have fired Bavasi after four years it would have avoided some of the worst of the damage to the player base. And it would have been blindingly obvious it was time for him to go.)

The real danger here, of course, is that most sports “fans” are by definition… maybe not clueless, but definitely “underinformed” and generally not the most rational bunch of folks, at least with respect to their favorite teams. I think this is especially true with sports where there are few quantifiable and publicly available statistics. Such as soccer.

This will be the first vote on the Sounders GM position, and letting the inmates run the asylum rarely works out well. With as successful as the Sounders have been, I hope that nothing interesting happens and that Hanauer easily wins re-election. We’ll see.

Swing and a Miss

By Blaidd Drwg

It was a good week for pitchers in the strikeout department:

On Wednesday, Doug Fister set an AL record when he recorded 9 consecutive strikeouts. He broke the record of 8, which had been done by several pitchers, most recently by Blake Stein (!) in 2001. He didn’t quite make it to the MLB record, which is 10, held by Tom Seaver.

On Tuesday, the Oakland A’s set an AL record for hitters strikeouts in a season with 7 games left on their schedule. The A’s batters swung past the Tampa Bay Rays 2007 total with their 1,325th K. They will end up obliterating the AL record. They still have a way to go to set the major league mark – that is 1,529 set by the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

On Monday, the Angles showed us just how bad the Mariners can be by tying a MLB record by striking out 20 Mariner hitters in a 9 inning game in a 5-4 victory. Zach Grienke struck out 13 in just 5 innings before giving way to a parade of reliever who fanned 7 over the final 4 innings of the game. With all of those strikeouts, the Angles did somehow manage to put Miguel Olivo down on strikes only once in his 4 plate appearances (even more shocking – Olivo had 3 hits in the game).

And Down the Stretch They Come…

By Blaidd Drwg

The NL has 4 of its 5 playoff spots finalized, with only the 2nd wild card still remaining. Even then, the Cardinals have a 3 game lead over the Dodgers with 6 games remaining, making it unlikely that the Dodgers will catch the Redbirds.

The AL is a different story – no one has actually clinched a playoff spot and it could be an interesting last week of the season. Going into Friday’s games, the Yankees lead the east by 1, the Tigers lead the central by 2 and the Rangers lead the west by 4. The wild card also has races, with the Orioles 1 game ahead of the A’s for the first spot and the A’s 2 games ahead of the Angels and Rays for the 2nd spot.

Here is how this is going to play out:
East:
Yankees have 6 games left – 3 at Toronto and 3 vs. Boston. They are in the best position to win the division since they play the two worst teams in the division and neither Boston nor Toronto is playing particularly well right now. As much as I know the Red Sox would like to spoil the Yankees playoff chances, I don’t think it will happen. I see the Yankees taking 5 of the 6 to win the division.

Orioles have 6 games left – 3 vs. Boston and 3 at Tampa.
Rays have 6 games left – 3 at Chicago and 3 vs. Baltimore.
The final TB-Baltimore series could really put a monkey wrench in the playoff chances for one of the two teams. Both the O’s and the Rays are hot and they both need to sweep their weekend series. It is entirely possible that both of these teams could make it to the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do.

Central:
Last week, the White Sox had a 3 game lead in the division. This week, they are trailing the Tigers by 2.
The White Sox need to take at least 2 out of three from the Rays (they really need a sweep) and then sweep the Indians in their last series. Why? Well the Tigers benefit from the most favorable remaining schedule of all the contenders – the have 3 at KC and finish with 3 vs. Minnesota. That is going to make it very tough on the Sox.

West:
The Rangers are in the driver’s seat, but by no means have it locked. They play 3 vs. the Angels and 3 at Oakland. Basically if they take 2 out of 3 from the Halos, the Rangers win the division and the Angels go home for the season.

The A’s are playing the Mariners for 3 and then finish with the Rangers. They really need to sweep the M’s and hope that either the Rangers fell apart against the Angels or have won the division and decided to monkey with their rotation to get it set for the playoffs. The A’s are a longshot to win the division but are in a pretty good spot for a wild card, even with their all-rookie rotation.

The Angels just basically need to win out against the Rangers and the Mariners. It could mean that there is meaningful baseball played in Safeco field in October, just not for the Mariners.

My Prediction:
East Winner: Yankees
Central Winner: Tigers
West Winner: Rangers
Wild Card 1: Orioles
Wild Card 2: A’s

Depending on everyone’s final record and how the wild card standings finish, you could actually end up with this nightmare scenario:

Oakland wins the 2nd wild card and flies to Baltimore, arriving sometime in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday

Oakland at Baltimore for the wild card game on Friday if Baltimore ends up with the best wild card record.

New York at Baltimore for the ALDS on Sunday if NY ends up with the best record.

MLB has decided in its infinite wisdom that the team with the best record gets to play the wild card winner (great), but the series format is 2 games at the WC winner and 3 at the Division Winner. So, the Yankees might not know that the need to get on a flight to Oakland until late Friday night. As much as I hate the Yankees, I don’t understand how that makes any sense. It probably negates any advantage they gain from playing the wild card winner. Of course, this gets much more interesting if there is a tie anywhere and we need a playoff to determine the winner.

Copout-gate 2012

By Blaidd Drwg

The NFL ref situation is now beyond ridiculous. Everyone knows about the botched calls at the end of the Seahawks-Packers game that resulted in a Seahawks win.

Well, the NFL decided to release a statement about the game, and, in the biggest copout ever, Roger Goodell said this:

While the ball is in the air, Tate can be seen shoving Green Bay cornerback Sam Shields to the ground. This should have been a penalty for offensive pass interference, which would have ended the game. It was not called and is not reviewable in instant replay.

I am fine with that. It was a play that was missed, although I am less likely to excuse the missed call on the interference based on the lousy calls earlier in the 4th quarter, one of which included Sidney Rice doing everything but stabbing Green Bay DB Sam Shields on a pass play and Shields getting called for pass interference.
The travesty is the NFL won’t admit that the refs and the replay officials got the call wrong on the actual interception:

Replay Official Howard Slavin stopped the game for an instant replay review. The aspects of the play that were reviewable included if the ball hit the ground and who had possession of the ball. In the end zone, a ruling of a simultaneous catch is reviewable. That is not the case in the field of play, only in the end zone.

Referee Wayne Elliott determined that no indisputable visual evidence existed to overturn the call on the field, and as a result, the on-field ruling of touchdown stood. The NFL Officiating Department reviewed the video today and supports the decision not to overturn the on-field ruling following the instant replay review.

I am not really sure which replay the officials were looking at, but there was definitely enough evidence to overturn the call in just about everyone’s opinion. What I suspect this is all really about is the league does not want to give any leverage to the officials that they locked out. By admitting that the replacement refs blew both calls, the locked out officials could use that as leverage in their negotiations.

That being said, I am tired of watching the officials constantly blow calls and get calls wrong, so I won’t be watching another minute of NFL football until the regular refs are back blowing calls weekly.

Update: It appears sometime between the time I wrote this and the time I posted it, the regular refs are going to be back at work.

The Curious Case of Aaron Cook

By Bliadd Drwg

Earlier in September, the Red Sox came limping into Seattle, for a pillow fight series against the Mariners. Things have been so bad for the Red Sox this season; they actually had a worse record than the Mariners on September 3^rd, the first game of the season. Normally the Red Sox are a big draw – historically pulling 30,000+ for a weekday series. This year, not so much. The beautiful Labor Day afternoon game drew a whopping 21,000 and the Tuesday and Wednesday games drew 12,700 and 13,000 respectively (although it seemed like there were less people at the Wednesday game).

That Wednesday game, the Red Sox brought out starter Aaron Cook, sporting a stellar 5.35 ERA before that start. What made it more interesting for me were his strikeout and walk stats – entering the game, Cook had struck out 11, walked 12 and given up 10 home runs…in 70.2 innings. That translates into less than 2 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. That, my friends, is a truly pathetic total. Cook has always been an extreme ground ball pitcher, which probably explains his success when he pitched for Colorado, despite striking out only 3.7 batters per nine. To put that into perspective, my favorite soft tosser, Jamie Moyer averaged 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings over his career. It is hard to survive as a MLB pitcher with a number as low as Cook has posted, but he has somehow managed to do it.

I bring this up for a couple of reasons. First, I wondered if there had been any pitcher who made it through 100 innings and gave up more home runs than strikeouts. I haven’t bothered to look that up yet, so that is for another post. Second, those extremely low numbers set up one of the more bizarre pitching outings I have seen from a truly statistical standpoint.

Coming into the Mariners game, Cook had made 13 starts. Here is the aggregate on the number of strikeouts and walks he has registered per game:

# of Strikeouts	Times	# of Walks	Times
0	7	0	5
1	3	1	6
2	2	3	2
4	1

So Cook managed to strike out 2 or less in 12 out of his first 13 starts. Enter the Seattle game. He gets on a roll early, striking out Trayvon Robinson in the first, meaning his K total exceeds half his previous starts, one inning into the game. In the second, he gets Eric Thames looking, and I am waiting for the plague of locusts to descend on the stadium; two strike outs in two innings? Someone obviously took Aaron Cook’s place on the mound.

The third inning is where it gets really strange. Dustin Ackley leads off and strikes out swinging. At this point I am ready to head for cover as it was due to start raining blood any minute. Trayvon Robinson again strikes out and I am fully expecting the second coming at this point. What are the chances that Aaron Cook, who has struck out 11 batters all season, will actually strike out the side? Pretty good actually. After a couple of walks (more on those in a minute), Jesus Montero struck out swinging to end the inning. The 5K’s in the first 3 innings would be all Cook would get – he would pitch 3 more innings without recording another strikeout.

What’s so interesting about the walks? Well, it means that a guy who has batters put the ball in play 91% of the time, managed to face 5 batters, record 3 outs and not a single one of them managed to put a ball in play.

You never know what you are going to have happen when you come to the ballpark on any given day.

Too Short II

by A.J. Coltrane

Ok, I know I’m hung up on this “Russell Wilson Is Too Short Thing”, but:

Wilson has been called a test study in a league that hinges on centimeters and is steadfast on black-and-white metrics. A wide receiver is supposed to run the 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds, an offensive lineman is supposed to weigh 300 pounds and a quarterback is supposed to stand at least 6-foot-2.

“He’s what you call an outlier,” said former Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt, whose grading system would’ve subtracted 15 points for Wilson’s height. “You go broke looking for those guys. For every guy that you draft that’s three inches and four inches below the accepted minimum, 99 of 100 are going to fail. He’s a real exception.

“Have you ever talked to him personally? He’s the most dynamic guy you’ll ever be around. He has such an unusual flair. I mean, this guy wins you over with two minutes’ talk. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a quarterback that’s undersized like he is that has been so dynamic.”

Emphasis mine. Overall the piece gushes about Wilson. Including this:

…In the middle of the [locker-room] noise, Wilson is sitting on the floor in front of his locker, his face buried in a binder. He’s highlighting pages with a fluorescent marker. It’s as if he’s in a library. Oh, Wilson will engage with his teammates soon. In a couple of days, he’ll take the field against the Dallas Cowboys. He’ll struggle a bit in the first half, but will slap nearly every hand on special teams and make every man feel amped and important.

Then Wilson will scramble and throw lasers in the second half of a 27-7 victory. He completes 13 of his final 15 passes and throws for 151 yards and a touchdown. His 75 percent completion rate is the highest for a rookie in Seahawks history.

That’s fine, they can select their statistics to make him look good, but through the first two games Seattle is last in the league in passage yardage at 136 yards/game. (also 7th in Rushing, and 28th overall) They’re scoring 21.5 points per game, tied with Cleveland for 24th in the league.

The Seahawks play Green Bay on Monday night. Green Bay is 5th in total defense (7th pass, 28th rush). I’ll be interested to see what happens when Green Bay stacks the box to stop the run — they’re going to have to do it to win. My feeling is that it’s going to be a long day to be Russell Wilson.

Have They Ever Been to Chicago in April?

By Blaidd Drwg

Are the schedule makers for MLB really that stupid? Here is a partial list of where opening day is going to take place in 2013:

LA Angels @ Cincy

Boston @ NY Yankees

San Diego @ NY Mets

KC @ Chicago

Detroit @ Minnesota

Seattle @ Oakland

St Louis @ Arizona

Philly @ Atlanta

SF @ LA Dodgers

Colorado @ Milwaukee

Chicago @ Pittsburgh

Miami @ Washington

Baltimore @ TB

Cleveland @ Toronto

For some reason the article did not mention where Texas vs. Houston is going to take place, not that it really matters. My point is the location of some of the openers. What do you want to bet at least half of the games taking place on April 1 & 2 in New York, Chicago, Minnesota, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh get cancelled due to bad weather (or at least get delayed).

I hate the new divisional alignment, I hate seeing interleague play every day and I hate the “unbalanced” balanced schedule. I really think that baseball is about 2 years off from adding the DH to the National League, which might be the only good thing to come of this – I really hate seeing pitchers flail at the ball, or worse yet, not even swing at an incoming pitch.

Don’t even get me started on the Mariners bizarre schedule, that is for a separate post.

Congratulations to Jose Reyes

By Blaidd Drwg

…on committing the 500,000^th (or so) error in MLB history. The great guys over at baseball-reference.com noticed that their tracker was on approach for 500,000 errors this season and Jose Reyes seems to be the lucky soul to be the one to bring the total to that nice, round number.

I say 500,000 or so because, due to the vague nature of some of the statistics, especially in the late 1800’s/early 1900’s, that number may not be entirely accurate. Also, as the blog on baseball-reference states:

One other issue that may affect things is that some errors are overturned at a later date, so even on the night we deign an error the 500,000th it may actually move up or down the last next week when mlb reviews borderline scoring calls.

Either way, let’s celebrate both a milestone error and the tremendous amount of research that BR.com has done to make looking up odd stats so much easier for people like us.

The Pending NHL Lockout

By Blaidd Drwg

Imagine that, I actually wrote a hockey related post.

The NHL is in line to shoot itself in the foot yet again with another labor dispute. If the players and owners can’t come up with a revenue sharing plan by September 15^th, the NHL will be headed for its second lockout in less than 10 years. The last one resulted in an entire season being missed and it hurt the league badly, such that hockey’s attendance was just starting to get back to its pre-2004 levels in the last couple of years.

The central issue, like every labor dispute in sports is money. The players currently get 57% of the revenue, the owners want to drop that to 48%. In the middle, the fans are the only ones who get hurt with no games to watch and higher ticket and concession prices in the stadia.

You want to know what the problem with the NHL is? This statement sums it up:

The NHLPA believes it can play a part in bolstering small-market franchises such as Phoenix, Florida, and Dallas.

zxvsfg — Even Eeyore smiled when Winnepeg got back an NHL team. Why doesn’t the league move a few more teams around to where they will see actual fan support.

Ok, for those of you who don’t follow hockey, Florida’s team is located in Miami. Do you want to know how small those markets actually are? According to Wikipedia, Phoenix is the 14^th largest metro area in the country, Miami is 8^th and Dallas is 4^th. On what planet are those “small market” teams? Heck, the NHL couldn’t sustain a team in Atlanta, which is the #7 metro area in the country. Support was so bad that the team in Atlanta moved to Winnipeg, Manitoba, a metro area roughly 1/8 the size of Atlanta and a city probably most famous for lending its name to a cartoon bear.

It is simple – the NHL needs to get out of most of those southern cities. The teams get no support from a huge population base and if you can’t survive in markets with 5 million potential customers, you should be out of the business. The smart thing to do would be to contract a few teams, but the owners and the players would never go for that. Plan B would be to move the floundering franchises to cities where they would be supported. Montreal and Toronto could both easily support a second team. Quebec City is building a new arena with the hopes of attracting another team to replace the long departed Nordiques. Heck, Seattle would be a great place for a relocated franchise, and you have a built in rivalry with Vancouver. Dallas, Phoenix and Miami are not hockey towns, no matter how much the NHL wants them to be.

Of course, none of this really resolved the core issue – millionaires fighting with billionaires over how to split the money they earned from sucking dry the wallets of the average fan.

60,000 Free Haircuts

by A.J. Coltrane

Quoting the Sounders program: “For the third-straight year Sounders FC broke the MLS attendance record in 2011, averaging 38,496 per MLS home match. Seattle has sold out 60-straight MLS regular season and playoff matches.”

It goes on to point out that the Sounders 2012 attendance (39,527) would rank them 7th in the English Premier League, right behind Chelsea.

The Sounders sold 60,905 tickets to the latest LA Galaxy game. The Sounders scored four goals that day, which meant free haircuts for everybody.

Beats the heck out of the old Sonics “Chalupa” promotion — If the Sonics scored 119 points then the fans would win a buy-one-get-0ne-free Chalupa. People would still chant “Chalupa, Chalupa, Chalupa”, when the game was a blowout but the Sonics were close to 119 points. Then the stadium would erupt when the Sonics got there.

People are easy to please. Though I’m happier with the free haircut.