Category: Sports

Thunder Trade A Quarter For Two Dimes

by A.J. Coltrane

The trade:

Unable to work out an extension with James Harden the Oklahoma City Thunder traded the Sixth Man of the Year to the Houston Rockets on Saturday night, breaking up the young core of the Western Conference champions.

The Thunder acquired guards Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks and a second-round pick in the surprising deal that was completed Saturday night. Oklahoma City also sent center Cole Aldrich and forwards Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to Houston.

Functionally it breaks down to Harden for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and a couple of mid-first-round draft picks. The draft picks could be expected to return Vladimir Radmanovic level talent, or be flipped again for other assets.

What the ESPN guys think of it:

Good or bad move for Oklahoma City?

Adande: Bad move. It’s not that Harden is the critical element to the Thunder’s success. (In their only NBA Finals victory against the Heat, he scored just five points.) But the familiarity this team had built was a big part of its identity. They were comfortable. They knew exactly what this group could do. Now they enter the unknown — and that includes the career of the promising Jeremy Lamb. Potential means you haven’t done anything.

Gutierrez: Good move. Kevin Martin might not be able to play point the way Harden did, but he’ll be just as aggressive a scorer when needed. Martin also has never played on a team this good. In the short term, it shouldn’t hurt their title chances. If Lamb or the draft picks work out, it could mean even better things down the road.

Haberstroh: Definitely a bad move for the short term, and potentially a good move for the long term. There’s just no two ways about it: The Thunder just lost an Olympian and got very little in return for this season. Kevin Martin is a brittle, one-dimensional player who might be the worst defender at his position. This is about a small-market team seeking future flexibility. Remember, the Lakers earn $250 million a year off their TV deal, but the Thunder make only about $15 million from theirs. Presti has to play a different game, thanks to the harsher CBA that was supposed to help his cause.

Stein: Normally I have nothing but praise for the most decisive of teams — and perhaps Presti will ultimately be proven to be a visionary for moving Harden out faster than anyone imagined — but it’s way too soon to throw out words like good. The Thunder undeniably got a lot here. Two future first-round picks, 2012 lottery pick Jeremy Lamb and an accomplished scorer in Kevin Martin is a legit haul. But the Thunder also just broke up a trio of All-Star-caliber kiddies that truly loved playing together. They had the option of playing this season out and then dealing with everything in July had they wished. That likely would have meant matching a max offer to Harden in restricted free agency and quite possibly waiving the likes of Kendrick Perkins via the amnesty clause, but isn’t that better than telling Durant and Westbrook that Harden is gonzo mere hours before opening night?

Verrier: Bad move. If the mandate was to avoid the new CBA’s more draconian luxury tax at all costs, kudos to Sam Presti for his guts and for positioning his club to be in the title picture long-term. But I don’t know how OKC can rip a piece away from a young core that was three wins away from a title — five days from its opener, no less. Decent return, but why take the risk?

My take:

On Harden:  I’ve never been as in love with Harden as most of the media. I think he played as well as he did in college, and thus far in the pros, mostly on guile and “old guy moves”. He’s not an elite athlete. He mostly creates his shot through misdirection against second tier opposition. I think that’s why he mostly disappeared against the Heat during the playoffs — the Heat had great athletes who knew what they were doing, and it left Harden “without anything to say”. In short, I don’t think Harden is a cornerstone guy, but he’s going to get paid like he is because that’s how the league works. Calling him “A Quarter” is being generous, though it makes the title of this blog post work.

On Martin:  Gunner without a conscience. Terrible defender. All the stuff mentioned above. Rental. I don’t think the Thunder are good enough everywhere on defense to cover up his weaknesses. Think Ricky Pierce, minus the divisive personality.

On Lamb:  I really liked Lamb in college. He’s a long shooting guard with lots of potential. I think the Thunder are hoping that he can take Thabo Sefolosha’s minutes, like real soon. Lamb took a backseat to Kemba Walker in college, and I’m not sure he can be assertive enough to have a big impact at the NBA level.

In summary:  The issue is that the Thunder are counting on Lamb to get good, fast, but he’s only 20 years old. Alternately they’re hoping to get lucky with one of the draft picks. They spent their money on Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Perkins and unless Ibaka figures out a way to contribute on offense the Thunder will likely come up short year after year.

Shortly after the trade Kevin Durant offered a one word tweet:  “Wow”.

Durant is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2015.

It was Willie, Linus and the Chuck

By Blaidd Drwg

With apologize to the great Terry Chapman.

They called him “Stretch”, he is a hall of famer and he was only the second best Willie on his team. He also had the distinction of almost bringing a World Series title to the Bay Area in 1962. Fifty years later, the Giants are back in the series, so it seems like a good time to post this.

Wilie McCovey almost made a place for himself in baseball lore in the 9th inning of game 7 of the 1962 series. Here is what happened (from Wikipedia):

The only run of this classic game came in the fifth inning when Tony Kubek grounded into a double play, Bill Skowron scoring from third. Ralph Terry, pitching the seventh game instead of Jim Bouton because of the rain delays, had given up Bill Mazeroski’s Series-winning walk-off home run two years earlier in Pittsburgh, but in his third start stifled the Giants’ power hitters. In the bottom of the ninth, pinch-hitter Matty Alou, batting for reliever Billy O’Dell, led off the inning with a bunt hit after first having a foul ball dropped, but Terry struck out the next two batters, Felipe Alou and Hiller. Mays hit a double into the right-field corner, but Maris played the carom well, then hit cut-off man Richardson with a throw that was quickly relayed home. Alou, aware of Maris’ strong arm, stopped at third. Facing Willie McCovey with two outs, Terry elected to pitch to him rather than walk the bases loaded, which would have brought up slugger Orlando Cepeda. Terry’s inside fastball on the second pitch handcuffed McCovey, who nonetheless adjusted his bat in mid-swing to extend his arms and hit what he later claimed was the hardest ball he had ever struck. The line drive appeared at first to be going over the head of a well-positioned Richardson, but was in fact sinking from topspin and Richardson made the catch without leaping to end the game. Terry was named the World Series MVP.

McCovey had a chance have one of the most dramatic series ending hits in history, but instead, he will have to be immortalized in the only two Peanuts baseball strips that mention an actual baseball game:

There is also a great interview with McCovey here.

Upset

by A.J. Coltrane

I’m playing in a restaurant pool where contestants pick the winner of each NFL game. The restaurant awards gift certs if you have the best weekly record, or the best record at the end of the season. Underdogs won 10 out of 14 games outright last week. I didn’t pick anything like 10 underdogs last week, so this was me:

 

Predicting the MLB Award Winners – the NL Edition

By Blaidd Drwg

The National League Awards picture is much muddier than the AL – in the NL, every award has multiple legitimate candidates, so picking the winner is going to be much harder.

MVP – My Pick = Ryan Braun/ Predicted Winner = Buster Posey
There are 4 legitimate candidates – Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina and Andrew McCutchen. In terms of overall WAR, the NL Leaders went Posey (7.2), McCutchen (7.0), Braun (6.8), Molina (6.7), so not a ton of separation between them. It was actually the same order of finish in the NL batting race, with Posey taking the award thanks to Melky Cabrera DQing himself. Here is how the contenders ranked in some offensive categories:

  WAR BA HR RBI OPS OPS+ RC
Posey 1 1   6 4 1 4
Braun 3 3 1 2 1 3 1
Molina 4 4       7  
McCutchen 2 2 8   5 2 2

A blank in the chart means they were not in the top 10 in the category. Molina had a fine season offensively, was stellar defensively and gets credit for his team making the playoffs, but I don’t think that is enough compared to the other candidates, so he is out. McCutchen hit the hell out of the ball in the first half of the season to the tune of a 1.039 OPS, but followed that up with a fine, but not MVP like .860 in the second half as the Pirates fell apart again at the end of the season, so he is out as a contender. That leaves Posey and Braun. Posey lit it up in the second half with a 1.102 OPS, carried the Giants offensively, especially after Melky Cabrera was suspended and his team made the playoffs, all major plusses. Braun was just about as good in 2012 as he was in 2011 (when he won the MVP), survived the loss of Prince Fielder’s protection in the lineup (Braun had 2 IBB’s in 2011, 15 in 2012), and was remarkably consistent hitting .990 OPS in the first half and .983 in the second. The knock on him is his team failed to make the playoffs, but they were in the race until the last week of the season. I think that the consistency and higher finish in several statistical categories gets Braun my vote. He won’t win because some voters will hold the failed steroid test last season over his head.

Cy Young – My Pick = Clayton Kershaw/ Predicted Winner = Johnny Cueto
Another award with 4 legitimate candidates – Kershaw, Cueto, RA Dickey and Gio Gonzalez. Here is a breakdown of the 4:

  WAR ERA W SO ERA+ WHIP
Kershaw 1 1   2 2 1
Cueto 2 3 3   1  
Dickey 3 2 2 1 3 3
Gonzalez 4 6 1 4 4 8

Gonzalez’s folio lies mostly in his 21 wins (leading the league) and the Gnats making the playoffs; the other 3 pitchers had better seasons than he did, so he is out. Dickey, it could be argued, statistically had the best season out of the group, but the Mets were terrible and that is going to cost him votes, so he is out. Kershaw had a better season statistically than Cueto, but there are 2 things working against him: his team did not make the playoffs and he only won 14 games. Yes there is precedent for picking the guy with the low win total, but not in a season where there was a 19, 20 and 21 game winner. That is what is going to prevent Kershaw from winning the award. Cueto is a fine pick; he had a stellar season, his team made the playoffs and he did it in one of the toughest parks in the NL to pitch in, so he does deserver the award should he win it.

ROY – My Pick = Bryce Harper / Predicted Winner = Bryce Harper
If you asked anyone for a prediction on who would win this award in June, they would have said Bryce Harper. Now, it is a three horse race with Harper, Wade Miley and Todd Frazier. Harper had a great season considering he is just 19 years old – .270 BA, 22 HR, 119 OPS+, 5.0 WAR, he made the AS team and his team made the playoffs. The knock on him is he faded at the end of the season. Miley went 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+ and 3.2 WAR, pitching in the tough confines of the BOB in Arizona and he also made an all-star team. His team did not make the playoffs though. Todd Frazier’s team, the Reds did make the playoffs and Frazier put up a .273 BA with 19 HR, 115 OPS+ but only a 1.9 WAR, hitting in the Great American bandbox. Given that, I don’t think that either Miley or Frazier, despite fine seasons, can match Harper’s output.

The Sounder’s Eddie Johnson Scores Two For The US

by A.J. Coltrane

There was a lot of surprised reaction last week when Jozy Alitodore was left off of the US squad for the two upcoming World Cup qualifiers. To quote Wahl:

Coach Jurgen Klinsmann left forward Jozy Altidore off his squad for the U.S.’s two important upcoming World Cup qualifiers, a decision that may well be the most surprising of Klinsmann’s 14-month tenure.

It’s true that Altidore has not had a standout year for the U.S., providing no goals and one assist in two starts and four substitute appearances. With Hérculez Gómez and Clint Dempsey expected to start up top in Friday’s qualifier at Antigua and Barbuda, it would not have been surprising to see Altidore come off the bench as a second-half sub. But for Altidore to be omitted entirely from the 24-man squad is a shock. (Pure forwards Gómez, Eddie Johnson and Alan Gordon are on the roster instead.)

After all, Altidore, 22, is tied for the Dutch league lead in goals with eight for AZ Alkmaar, including a terrific slaloming strike Sept. 30. The World Cup 2010 veteran has also played in a team-leading 17 straight World Cup qualifiers for the U.S. and brings big-game experience to the table. Under Klinsmann, the U.S. has scored more than one goal just three times in the coach’s 18 games, which makes you wonder why he would leave the U.S.’ most prolific European-based goal-scorer at the moment off the squad.

It worked out. Eddie Johnson scored two goals to lead the US against Antigua and Barbuda:

In his first game back with the U.S. national team, Johnson scored twice Friday night, including the winning goal in second-half injury time, lifting the United States to the verge of advancing in World Cup qualifying with a nervous 2-1 victory over Antigua and Barbuda.

If the Americans draw with Guatemala on Tuesday night in Kansas City, Kan., they will move into the final round of CONCACAF qualifying for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. The U.S. has 10 points and so does Guatemala after a 2-1 win over Jamaica.

Johnson connected on headers in the 20th minute and then in the dying moments in his first game for the U.S. team in two years. He was added to the squad by coach Jurgen Klinsmann, ostensibly replacing the disappointing Jozy Altidore, and the move paid off.

“It’s good to be back in the mix,” Johnson said. “Going into this game the coach has a ton of confidence in me to put me wide out on the wing.”

“We have a world class coach who played at the highest level. He knows the game.”

And the correct quotes after the game.

Johnson was something of a speculative pickup by the Sounders prior to the season. He’s now 5th in the league in scoring, ahead of even Fredy Montero (7th). Their production has contributed to the Sounders +17 goal differential, good for 2nd in MLS. The team is advancing to the playoffs.

Everything else aside, he’s a huge upgrade from Nate Jacqua and he’s been really fun to watch.

 

——-

That last link is an excellent read. Here’s something I didn’t know:  Of Johnson’s 14 goals, 9 have come off of headers.

Predicting the MLB Award Winners – the AL Edition

By Blaidd Drwd

It has been a fun season and the beauty of baseball is that we have the MLB awards to look forward to after the World Series, so we get to hold onto baseball just a little longer. I have decided to have some fun and try to predict the award winners. You will see two names for each aware – my vote is the guy who I would vote for and predicted winner is who I think the actual voters will pick. So here we go with the AL; the NL will follow later.

MVP – My Vote = Miguel Cabrera/ Predicted Winner = Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has the Triple Crown and his team made the playoffs. He posted a 1.074 OPS in the second half of the season and was one of the main reasons for the Tigers run and eventual division title. He was the second best hitter in the AL according to offensive WAR but only 4th in overall WAR in the AL; and he didn’t even have the highest WAR on his team. Let’s face it; I think he is the last guy in baseball you want to face with the game on the line. I think the Triple Crown and the Tigers making the playoffs give him the vote.

The only other real contender in this race is Mike Trout. He lead all of baseball in both overall WAR (by 2.5 wins – that is a huge amount) and offensive WAR (by 1.1 wins), became the first rookie to score 100 runs, hit 30 HR and steal 40 bases and he did all of this missing the first month of the season when he was still in the minors. Oh, did I mention that he is only 20? I think the Angels not making the playoffs cost him the MVP – I really think he wins it if the Halos made the postseason.

ROY – My Vote = Mike Trout/ Predicted Winner = Mike Trout

The discussion begins and ends with Mike Trout. Trout had a WAR of 10.5, the next closest rookie? Yoenis Cespedes at 3.4.

He was really that much better than anyone else who was a rookie in 2012. Not only will Trout win, he will be a unanimous selection.

CY Young – My Vote = Justin Verlander/ Predicted Winner = David Price

This is one award that has a number of contenders with no one really a huge standout: David Price, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver. Price and Weaver both won 20 games and were tied with an .800 win percentage. Price led the league in ERA, Weaver in WHIP. Verlander on the other hand was the only contender whose team made the playoffs and Verlander lead the league in IP, K CG and WAR. I think that those numbers are enough for me to give Verlander his second consecutive Cy Young, but voters like Wins and ERA and Price has the advantage in both of those, so I think the voters give it to him in a very close result.

Mariners Shortstops, Through the Years

By Blaidd Drwg

At a Mariners game recently, I overheard a conversation about Alex Rodriguez and it got me thinking. Shortstop has been a black hole essentially since he left and I was wondering just how truly bad the Mariners shortstops over the last 11 seasons have been in light of Brendan Ryan’s sub 200 BA. The below chart, taken from the data on baseball-reference.com, contains the composite batting and fielding stats for all Mariners SS since 2000. The primary SS is the player who started the most games in a given season and DWAR is the fielding wins above replacement total (0 being replacement level, higher is better). I didn’t run the exact numbers, but the average season from the shortstop position for the Mariners since Arod’s departure is something like .254 BA, 6 HR and an OPS of .656. That is fine if you SS is batting in the Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers lineups, but not acceptable when you are in the Punch and Judy lineup the Mariners have trucked out there for the better part of the decade.

YEAR Primary SS BA HR OPS OPS+ DWAR
2012 Brendan Ryan .194 3 .555 61 3.6
2011 Brendan Ryan .250 5 .659 90 2.5
2010 Josh Wilson .230 5 .570 65 1.0
2009 Yuniesky Betancourt .231 10 .597 65 -0.4
2008 Yuniesky Betancourt .274 7 .680 89 -0.5
2007 Yuniesky Betancourt .284 9 .713 92 0.3
2006 Yuniesky Betancourt .286 8 .708 91 0.7
2005 Yuniesky Betancourt .265 4 .684 91 0.4
2004 Rich Aurilia .239 9 .630 73 0.5
2003 Carlos Guillen .269 4 .680 91 0.5
2002 Carlos Guillen .262 11 .719 100 0.2
2001 Carlos Guillen .265 5 .698 94 1.7
2000 Alex Rodriguez .318 42 1.011 172 2.3

Let’s put it this way – the last time the Mariners had a league average hitter at SS was when Carlos Guillen was still young and playing almost every day. The Mariners have a ton of holes in their lineup right now, so SS is probably the least of their concern. There may be some help in the farm system if Nick Franklin can stay healthy, although I am not sure he is going to stay at SS long term, and if Carlos Triunfel can regain some of the promise he had a the Mariners top prospect a couple of seasons ago (both Franklin and Triunfel are under the age of 23, so there is a chance they might improve). Until then, I would love to see the Mariners get someone into the SS position who might be able to hit, just a little.

And Six Months Later…

by A.J. Coltrane

The baseball regular season is over so it’s time to look at the really important outcomes:  The results of my 2012 MLB futures bets!!

 

Jered Weaver Wins vs Cliff Lee Wins (Giving 1/2 win, picking Weaver)

This was an easy one. At CSE we’ve always had a higher opinion of Weaver than does the national media. The Angels also gained hitting talent over the winter in the form of Albert Pujols and young guys like MVP Candidate Mike Trout. The Phillies had problems with their position players coming into the season — Chase Utley didn’t wind up playing until June 27th, and Ryan Howard is becoming Late Career Mo Vaughan. In 2012 the Phillies only had one guy get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so Jimmy Rollins “led the team” in every statistical category.

The Results:

Lee opened the season 0-5. He didn’t win his first game until the 4th of July. His second win was on July 31, at which point he was 2-6. He finished the season at 6-9.

Weaver went 20-5. The outcome of this bet was never really in doubt.

 

Felix Hernandez Strikeouts vs Tim Lincecum Strikeouts (Pick: Hernandez)

Another easy one, though I didn’t do any actual research on it (or any of these bets really). *Everyone* knew that Tim Lincecum wasn’t “right” (or effective) at the end of the 2011 season. His fastball velocity was way off. His problems continued into spring training of 2012 (which is when these bets were placed — during the 2nd weekend of March Madness.) Further supporting evidence which I would have used if I had actually done research: Lincecum’s strikeout totals had declined each of the last three years starting at 265, then 261, 231, 220. Felix’s three year strikeout history was 217, 232, 222.

The Results:

Lincecum totalled 190 strikeouts in 2012. Quite honestly this is more than I thought he’d get. I thought he was basically cooked as an elite pitcher. His 5.18 ERA seems to validate this thinking.

Felix struck out 223 batters in 2012. It was an easy win for Felix.

I didn’t even look at this one over the course of the season. Lincecum started slowly, and Felix was Felix. It wound up closer than I thought it would, though Felix still had 17% more strikeouts than Lincecum.

 

 

Evan Longoria (Hits + HR + RBI) vs Adrian Beltre (Hits + HR + RBI) (Pick: Longoria)

This one was a non-starter because Longoria got hurt. And because Beltre nearly set a career high, hitting .321. That’s the main problem and the main attraction with these player’s futures bets: The outcomes are way more volatile. The M’s won 75 games this year, which is pretty much what the statheads and Vegas had them pegged at. Longoria played in 74 games. Beltre played in 156. Nobody was predicting that.

I picked Longoria because he’s at least 6-1/2 years younger than Beltre. Longoria is listed at 26. Beltre is listed at 33, and I’m of the feeling that Beltre is really at least a year or two older than that — I’m always suspicious of a non-US born player who’s productive at age 20, most guys mature a few years later. On a bet like this I’ll always take the guy who’s closer to his prime, younger players tend to be healthier and the probability of a “career year” is higher.

The Results:

Longoria (79 Hits + 17 HR + 55 RBI) = 151
Beltre (194 Hits + 36 HR + 102 RBI) = 332

But if we pro-rate Longoria to 156 games:
(164 Hits + 35 HR + 114 RBI) = 313

Still short.

Now I just have to find those two winning slips. I don’t think I’ve seen them since March.

It All Comes Down to This

By Blaidd Drwg

The playoffs are set, just a few teams jockeying for position.

Yankees and Orioles for the AL East – If the Yankees win, they win the division, so they control their own destiny. If they Orioles win and the Yankees lose, we get a tie breaker on Thursday. If the Orioles lose, the Yankees win the division.

Rangers and A’s for the AL West – man, this became a race all of a sudden. Both teams go into tonight’s game tied. The A’s are on fire, the Rangers are not. It should be a fun one to watch. The winner takes the division; the loser gets the wild card and has to fly cross country to play that game on Friday in NY or Baltimore if the Orioles win tonight.

The NL is set other than the Nats and Reds battling it out for the best record.

The most intriguing story line is Miguel Cabrera and his quest for the Triple Crown. Cabrera leads Mike Trout in BA by .007, Josh Hamilton in HR by 1 and Josh Hamilton in RBI by 11.

No one is going to catch Cabrera in RBI, so he has that one locked up.

For the HR’s, basically it is up to Hamilton. He needs 2 to take the lead and 1 to tie and is facing A’s rookie A.J Griffin. Hamilton has not homered in his last 8 games and has just 1 homer in 32 AB in Oakland this year. Cabrera should know if he has the HR title locked up before his game starts – the A’s/Rangers starts at 12:35 PM PT and the Tigers/Royals starts at 5:10 PM PT. I think I put my money on Cabrera winning this title outright as Hamilton won’t be swinging for the fences as the Rangers need to win this game.

BA is where it gets interesting. Trout faces the M’s and Blake Beavan this afternoon (3:40 PM PT start). Trout is a career 0-8 against Beavan and is just 12-41 at Safeco this season. If Trout manages to pull off a 4-4 afternoon, that would raise his average to .328571. Cabrera currently stands at .330645. Assuming that Trout goes 4-4, all Cabrera needs to do is to get 1 hit. It does not matter how many at bats he has. The only way that Cabrera does not win the title with a 4-4 day by Trout is if he goes 0-4 or worse. An 0-4 day would leave Cabrera at .328526 average, just a hair behind Trout. Cabrera should win this title too.

Regardless how you feel about the Triple Crown categories being over-rated, it is really cool to have something potentially happen that has not happened in 45 years.

 

UPDATE 3:54PM: Simply unbelievable – the A’s sweep the Rangers and take the division. The Nats get the NL best record and Cabrera locks up the HR and RBI titles. Mike Trout was hit by a pitch in his first at bat.