Fun Statistical Anomolies

By Blaidd Drwg

Occasionally, you will get a guy leading the majors in some statistical category without actually leading either league in that category.

Big Mac’s League Leading 58 Home Runs immortalized in a baseball card.

It happened in 1997, when Mark McGwire smashed 58 home runs to lead the majors, but didn’t lead either league due to his trade from the A’s to the Cardinals during the season.

It also happened in 1990, when Eddie Murray lead the majors in Batting Average, but did not lead in NL (he was with the Dodgers at the time) in BA. Murray got traded to the Dodgers in the 1988 off season (for Juan Bell, Brian Horton and Ken Howell – how is that for a bad trade), so it wasn’t that he split his season between two teams. How did it happen then? Well, Willie McGee was leading the NL with a .335 on August 29th with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. McGee then got traded to Oakland, but batted just .274 the rest of the season, dropping his season average to .324, giving the MLB lead to Murray without him actually leading the NL in AVG. In case you were wondering who the 1990 AL batting leader was, it was 37 year old George Brett, who paced the junior circuit with a .329 AVG.

Rick Sutcliffe almost pulled off a similar feat in 1984 after getting traded to the Cubs from the Indians – he won 20 games without leading either league in wins, but ended up tied for the MLB lead with Mike Boddicker and Joaquin Andujar.

Commencing countdown (Five), engines on (Four)

By Blaidd Drwg

Roger Clemens, regardless of your feelings toward him, is a hall of famer. With 7 Cy Young awards, an MVP, 354 wins and 4600 strikeouts, I don’t care what he may or may not have taken. Roger Clemens is also eligible for the hall of fame in 2013. That should be an interesting vote seeing as there are 6 legitimate new candidates for the hall (Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling and Biggio) as well as at least 5 guys that are returning and should eventually make the hall (and I am not counting Jack Morris who I believe is not worthy of being a hall of famer). Needless to say, the next few ballots are going to be very crowded and just about all of the 11 guys who are on this year’s ballot who should get into the hall all have steroid questions floating over their head. That is going to make things very interesting.

Flash back to a couple of weeks ago when Roger Clemens announced that he was going to pitch one game for the independent Sugar Land Skeeters. Clemens is 50 and has not pitched in a game since 2007. My first thought when I heard this was, “He is trying to make a comeback to reset the clock on his HOF eligibility.” It makes sense – if he pitches in a MLB game this season, it would reset his eligibility, making his first year on the ballot 2018 instead of 2013. The 2013 vote is stupidly going to be a referendum on steroids, with the tyrant old school voters trying to make a meaningless point. You also have at least 3 potential HOFers on each of the next 4 ballots after 2013, so things may get a bit more crowded. Pushing his eligibility back to 2018 creates a larger buffer for a shift in attitude, and hopefully a shift in the voting to the newer members of the BBWAA.

This is of course speculation on my part, but considering Clemens had a successful start in his first appearance and is planning on making another start for Sugar Land, I could definitely see the Astros, who have absolutely nothing to play for, signing Clemens and putting him out on the mound for at least one game in late September. Stranger things have happened.

The Bad News Bears

By Blaidd Drwg

It is possible that the Newark Bears had these guys in the field for a recent game against the Capitales. It is independent minor league baseball afterall.

The good news: Newark Bears pitcher Mike Ness tossed a no-hitter and won 3-0 against the first place Quebec Capitales.

The bad news: The Newark Bears defense committed 6 errors in the game.

Yes, it is the Can-Am league and yes, neither team is loaded with major league talent, but 6 errors are inexcusable in a professional game (especially when 2 of your coaches are Ken Oberkfell and Tim Raines). The amazing part is the Capitales didn’t manage to score a run in the game, considering the Bears committed 3 errors in the 3rd inning (stranding a runner on 3rd). Also interesting was that the 6 errors were committed by 5 different players, with only the Bears 3B Tucker Nathans committing 2 errors.

Too Short

by A.J. Coltrane

From left to right:  Matt Flynn, the recently departed Tavaris Jackson (he’s not dead, he’s just been traded to Buffalo), and new rookie starter Russell Wilson.

Flynn is 6′ 2″.

Jackson is 6′ 2″.

Wilson is 5′ 10″ +5/8″

Longtime readers may remember a series of posts I did looking at the heights of Super Bowl quarterbacks over the last 20 years. Those posts and research are now gone, but the result was:   The average Super Bowl quarterback of the last 20 years stood 6′ 2″ – 6′ 3″. Wilson is a full four inches shorter than that.

Here’s a list all quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl.  The only winner as short as 6’0″ is Drew Brees. Three time loser Fran Tarkenton was 6’0″. Len Dawson was 6’0″; he was the unfortunate loser of Super Bowl I. That’s the entire height-deficient list. 45 Superbowls = 90 quarterbacks, and three guys standing 6’0″.

Here’s the list of the all-time passing leaders. Find the shortest guy in the top 100. I don’t think there are any quarterbacks under 6’0″, even among the old-school guys.

I keep hearing Drew Brees comparisons as an example of a short quarterback who can be successful. The shortest listed height I’ve been able to find for Brees is 6’0″ — Brees is nearly an inch and a half taller than Wilson.

I’m belaboring this point:  Unless Wilson is an outlier of truly historic proportions the Seahawks are barking up the wrong tree. I’d go with Flynn.

Watching Paint Dry

By Bladd Drwg

I have no real love for MLS soccer – the play reminds me of schoolyard basketball, the skill level is marginal compared to watching any European team play and the officiating is downright atrocious. I did recently go see the US Open Cup final between Seattle and Kansas City and was treated to everything I hate about watching an MLS game.

Both teams looked flat and the Sounders looked like they were playing not to lose the game. KC was not much better and the bulk of regulation time was spent with both teams middling around in the middle of the field making bad passes and not really pushing any attacks. It was frankly as exciting as watching paint dry. Both teams had a few scoring chances, but in those cases they were generally created by defensive mistakes rather than offensive skill.

The Sounders managed to get flagged for 4 yellow cards in regulation – and in each of those cases, the card should have been awarded. The Sounders should have only had 3 cards – Alonso was going to be warned early on for an aggressive play but he kept walking away from the ref, and eventually pushed the official away drawing the yellow. There was only one play that I thought KC made that might have warranted a yellow, but the ref did not call it. There were a number of questionable calls on both sides of the ball but I don’t believe the handball that lead to a KC goal was a bad call (unfortunately GolTV refused to show replays on just about every play).

After going 90 all tied, we were treated to another 30 minutes of incipit soccer as KC practically dominated the overtime but could not mount much of an attack. For all you Sounders fans – yes, Ianni deserved his yellow in the 119th minute – he pulled down a guy that had no defenders between him and the goal; that is an automatic yellow.

After watching 120 minutes of uninspired play, we got to witness the soccer equivalent of kissing your sister – penalty kicks. For the sake of the setup – a goalie is supposed to start on the goal line and is not supposed to move until the player taking the kick strikes the ball; a rule that is rarely enforced except on the last kick. If the goalie moves before the ball is struck or does not start out touching the goal line and touches the ball preventing a goal, it is a rekick. If he does not touch the ball, there is no rekick, even if the player kicking the ball does not score. That is exactly what happened at the end of the game, leading to a 3-2 advantage for KC and the win. (Yes – the replay does show that the Sounders goalie did not start out on the line).

If you read Jerry Brewer’s account in the Seattle Times, you will get a very different perception of the game. Some of the “highlights”:

…after a grueling 120 minutes of tense competition, after drama, frustration and five decisive penalty kicks from each team, history succumbed to anger, confusion and allegations of biased officiating.

It was a spirited contest, as competitive as you want a title game to be. But when it was over, the Sounders were left miffed and unsatisfied.

If Brewer thought the game was competitive and spirited, I suggest he watch a Champions League final or a Euro tournament.

A slightly less biased article (and a much more realistic view of the game) was written by Jeff Carlisle on espn.com. It’s title? “Hard to watch, easy to love.” I think that just about summed up the game.

Ichiro and His Trade to the Yankees

By Blaidd Drwg

At the time the Mariners traded Ichiro to the Yankees, I will be honest, I had absolutely no idea why the Yankees would have wanted him. They were pretty set in the outfield and really didn’t need a DH, so the trade seemed odd, especially since Ichiro has struggled over the last 2 season, particularly against left handed pitching. Something that did not get widely reported by the media in Seattle was this little detail of the deal from ESPN.com:

Before completing a trade to acquire the Japanese star, the Yankees spelled out a list of conditions to Ichiro, a former American League MVP and two-time batting champion.

Ichiro would be asked to switch positions, hit at the bottom of the lineup and possibly sit against left-handed pitching.

Ichiro knows his career is coming to an end and he is probably desperate to win a World Series title and the Yankees are his best hope for doing that this season. I found it very interesting that the Yankees scouting has noticed exactly what I have about Ichiro this season:

He can no longer play above average defense in right field.
He isn’t a top of the lineup hitter considering his sub .300 OBP.
He is cheating on fastballs against left handers and can’t hit them effectively anymore.
He has slowed down (there has been a huge drop in the number of infield hits he has had over the last 2 seasons).

The move to the Yankees has not really helped either – Ichrio had slash totals of 261/288/353 with the Mariners and 265/296/368 with the Yankees, translating to an OPS= of 82 with the Mariners and 77 with the Yankees. His time with the Yankees has been bizarre: he hit in 16 out of his first 17 games with them, but managed to only produce 2 multi-hit games. The Yankees have generally batted him in the bottom third of the lineup and have sat him the last 2 games against a lefty starting pitcher.

I have never been a huge Ichiro fan, but he was a fun and frustrating player to watch and I would love to see him win a championship. I suspect that if he does this season, he will call it quits and in 5 years become the first Japanese inductee into Cooperstown. If he does not, I bet he takes a part time role with a contender to try again next season. I think that even Ichiro has realized that he has reached the end of the line. He is currently 449 hits away from 3000 and I just don’t think he has enough left in the tank to get there.

The Dwight Howard Trade, Or, Be Careful What You Wish For

by A.J. Coltrane
 
Dwight Howard finally got what he wanted. Out.
 
I think there’s a broad public perception that Howard is the best center in the league right now, and by extension that makes him one of the All Time Greats. What’s the reaction going to be when he’s exposed as not really being at that level? He’s not Kareem or Wilt or Shaq… Dwight is basically Patrick Ewing minus some offense, and Patrick wasn’t quite good enough to bring a title to New York. Will Lakers’ fans turn on him in three years when they haven’t won a championship? At that point Kobe and Nash will be retired or nearly so, and Gasol will be pretty old. Then what?
 
A more immediate concern:  Dwight, Kobe, Nash, Gasol — who is the Lakers’ best player and who takes the shots when it matters? Kobe is still going to be the alpha dog, and I’m going to bet he continues to take the shots for the next couple of years, though I don’t think his body will allow him to “finish” games at an elite level; I think those days have already come and gone. Who’s going to take the blame when the Lakers can’t quite get there? It won’t be Kobe.
 
There’s also the little issue that the Lakers’ have a really old backcourt. Who guards Russell Westbrook? Or Derrick Rose? Or Chris Paul? Or Dwayne Wade? Or…
 
What it comes down to (and this is what Carmelo Anthony is running into in New York), is the question:  “With Dwight Howard as your best player, can you win a championship?” The jury is still out on Carmelo (though I’m of the firm opinion that the answer is “No”.) 
 
I think that the answer for Howard is “no” as well.
 
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Item That Really Only Fits As Sort Of A Postscript: 
 
I think it’s interesting that nobody wanted to join Howard in Orlando. Why do you figure that is?
 
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In other news:  Finaaallly, the trade is done, and we can talk about something, anything, else.
 
Bill Simmons, of course, has this terrific take on it. He’s more of the opinion that it’s a huge win for the Lakers, though he also includes this bit:
 
“…In April, after the Lakers win 65 games and everyone is getting psyched for a Heat-Lakers Finals, nobody will care that Howard acted like such a big baby. We’ll be busy with crap like ranking him against the other great Lakers centers of all time. That’s just how sports works.
 
(Well, unless the 2013 Lakers don’t realize their potential. And then? Get ready for chaos.)”
 
[There are some similar thoughts to mine in the Simmons piece. fwiw – I wrote my bit, then read his.]
 
[Late edit:  Vegas loved the trade too — the Lakers leapfrogged the Thunder and into the second best odds of a 2013 championship, behind only the Heat.]

A Terrible Idea

By Blaidd Drwg

Why do I think that this is going to end up being a bad idea for the NFL:

Fans at NFL games this season will get a look under the hood, so to speak — all stadium video boards will show the same replay the lead official is viewing on the sideline video monitor.

I have a feeling 70,000 screaming fans might just provide a bit of influence to the ref’s decision making process. My guess is this does not last the season.

The full story is here.

Santonio Holmes and a Two QB System

By Blaidd Drwg

If you want to run a 2 QB system, you should talk to Mike Mularkey.

What is it about New York athletes running their mouths off?

Santonio Holmes, the talented but unstable receiver for the New York Jets, is complaining about the Jets using a 2 QB system involving Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow.

Holmes says:

“… You have to allow one quarterback to get into the rhythm of a game and it starts from the preparation in practice,” he said. “(It’s) knowing the first couple of plays that he’s going to take these reps, it’s getting the feel for coming onto the field with the crowd awaiting you, it’s making the mistakes early in the game to finishing the games at the end.

“You don’t just change a guy out just because he has a few mistakes early into a game.”

Holmes had some issues with Jets QB Mark Sanchez last season, and personally, I think that most of those problems were because Holmes feels like every pass play should go to him.

Will a 2 QB system work in NY – I personally don’t think so. Sanchez isn’t that good and Tebow isn’t a QB, so I think you will have a few games of playing with this until the Jets abandon it.

Can it work? Sure it can. The Steelers had a ton of success running an offense with Antwann Randel El and Kordell Stewart (before he tried to become a QB) lining up under center and moving the QB (for many of those years it was Neil O’Donnell, Tommy Maddox and Kordell Stewart – after he became a QB) into a flanker position. It probably helped that the Steelers in those seasons had a killer running game, a great offensive line and the best blocking WR in NFL history (Hines Ward); none of which the Jets currently possess.