Category: Sports

The Mariners, Run Differential, And Lookout Landing

by A.J. Coltrane

I’ve been going to Lookout Landing for the majority of my Mariners news. Today I was rewarded with this Jeff Sullivan post:  Mariner’s Rub Shoulders With League’s Elite In Land Of Positive Run Differential

The Seattle Mariners had been looking in through the window since June 5. On June 5, the Mariners lost in Anaheim by five runs, and they were escorted by security out of the ballroom, through the front door, and into the yard. They were escorted no further, but they heard the door lock behind them, just as they heard the clinking of glasses and the din of laughter from within. The Mariners had mingled with the best of the best, but suddenly they were no longer welcome. They could only stare longingly at all of the fun teams having fun, having fun without them, having fun without missing them.

In time the Mariners stopped feeling sorry for themselves and set about earning re-entry. They didn’t know if re-entry was possible, or if it was even allowed, but there was only one way to find out, and they eventually found out. On the night of July 31, the Mariners heard the door unlock. The door swung open, and there was security, ushering the Mariners in. As they looked at each other and approached, they were handed silver necklaces bearing “+1” medallions. The Mariners put them on, and proceeded cautiously and then confidently back into the ballroom.

There, in a corner, pouring punch, were the Cardinals. +99. On the dance floor were the +74 Nationals and the +37 Red Sox. The +77 Yankees hung back, nodding their heads to the music. The +7 Tigers and +6 Giants stood meekly against the wall. The +40 Diamondbacks approached and welcomed the Mariners to the party, unaware that they had been in before. “We’re all the same in here,” they said. “We’re all haves. There are haves, and there are have-nots.” They gestured to a distant window. A group of necklace-less Cubs outside scattered and hid in the bushes.

The Mariners lit up. “Really, the same? We’re all just peers, one no better or worse than the next?”

The Diamondbacks eyed the Mariners’ necklaces and laughed. “No, of course not, we were pulling your leg, haha.” They didn’t stop laughing for several minutes. “Haha, haha.” At last, they composed themselves. “We shouldn’t even be talking to you, honestly. But you’re in the way of the drinks.”

The Mariners stepped aside to give the Diamondbacks room. “But, hey, you know, +1? That’s not bad. That’s not bad. Congrats on not being super shitty.” With that the Diamondbacks advanced to the open bar, and the Mariners tried to catch the Giants’ eyes, while the Giants tried not to let them.

The point is that the M’s haven’t totally sucked this year. (There’s a strong correlation between a teams run scored/runs allowed ratio and their winning percentage. Or to put it another way, if a team scores as many runs as they allow it follows that they don’t *suck*.) Sullivan says it in what I think is a really entertaining fashion. The blog also features excellent graphics and game wrapups. Click on the Blogroll at the right for more good stuff from Lookout Landing.

Don’t Cry For Me, Miguel Batista

By Blaidd Drwg

Batista has been around so long, that he pitched for the Montreal Expos when they were still playing in Montreal.

Miguel Batista was recently released by the Mets and it appears his career is over. He will be “best” remembered around these parts as one of the worst free agent signings of the Bavasi era, sporting 2 mediocre and 1 terrible season for a 3 year, 24 million dollar contract.

Batista was exactly league average (his OPS+ according to baseball-reference.com is exactly 100) over his 18 year career and he did have a couple of decent seasons with the Diamondbacks back in the early 2000’s, but he was never great.

One interesting fact if he does indeed retire before the end of the season: He is the last remaining active member of the 1992 Pirates team, having appeared in one game for them back in ’92. Why is that significant? Well, 1992 happens to be the last time the Pirates had a winning record. That is how long Miggy has been around

Bench Him Like Beckham?

By Blaidd Drwg

How did this action by David Beckham only land him a yellow card (other than it was David Beckham, the only real marketable player in MLS) and a one game suspension that is only the result of multiple yellows this season? This should have been a red and a couple of games banned – there is no question it was intentional.
http://player.espn.com/player.js?&playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:8119152&thruParam_espn-ui%5BautoPlay%5D=false&thruParam_espn-ui%5BplayRelatedExternally%5D=true

On the plus side, his aim from 30 yards out was impeccable.

Ichiro Traded!!!!!1!!1!!!!

by A.J. Coltrane

Is that enough exclamation points?!!??

Seriously though, I’m floored. Imagine that Somebodies such as Tony Gwynn or Barry Larkin had experienced a late career trade — I was absolutely convinced Ichiro would retire, from American Baseball at least, as a Mariner. I’m about equally as surprised that Ichiro requested the trade himself, and that it was months ago.

And to the Yankees no less. Yeesh.

The Mariners and Royals

By Blaidd Drwg

Before you get too excited about the Mariners taking 3 out of 4 against the Royals and putting up 31 runs in the process, the Royals probably have the worst starting rotation in the majors. Let’s take a look at the guys who the Mariners faced in the 4 game series:

Game 1: Jonathan Sanchez (current ERA – 7.76) Pitching line – 1.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER
Sanchez, once a rising star in the Giants organization, fell completely off a cliff this season, walking 44 guys in 53 innings and sporting a stellar 2.04 WHIP. Things got so bad with Sanchez that the Royals designated him for assignment after this disastrous start against the Mariners (Yet somehow the Rockies had enough interest in him to trade a somewhat useful player for him on Friday).

Game 2: Ryan Verdugo (current ERA – 32.40) Pitching line – 1.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER
Verdugo was making his MLB Debut in this game. He was the “other guy” the Royals got with Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera. Verdugo is 25 and had not pitched particularly well in the minors in his career and never above AAA before this season; was his debut line much of a surprise?

Game 3: Bruce Chen (current ERA – 5.57) Pitching line – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER
The “ACE” of the Royals staff. He pitched somewhat decently; I will put heavy emphasis on somewhat, because frankly, that is not a good pitching line. But heck, it can’t be that bad, the Royals actually won that game

Game 4: Will Smith (current ERA – 7.97) Pitching line – 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER
Smith wasn’t terrible, but he was going against Felix, so he wasn’t winning that game no matter how well he pitched. At least in Smith’s defense, he is only 22 and seems to have some upside potential. Then again, he does pitch for the Royals, so maybe not.

Speaking of Felix, he dispatched the Royals, needing just 89 pitches over 8 innings before giving way to Lucas Luetge in the 9th. Felix is in the zone right now – he is dominant and he is being economical with his pitches. He has given up only 2 ER in his last 24.2 innings. It might have something to do with the 21 strikeouts and his amazing Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio – 36 GB to 23 FB. I am not sure what adjustment he made, but he is back to getting guys out on the ground. Over his career his ration has been 1.24 to 1 GB to FB, this year is has been .9 to 1 GB to FB. Welcome back, Felix.

Time for Reggie to Shut His Trap

By Blaidd Drwg

I think Reggie Jackson just needs to stop talking. He recently had some things to say about a number of subjects in a recent Sports Illustrated interview. First off, he decided to comment about Alex Rodriguez:

“Al’s a very good friend,” Jackson said of the New York Yankees third baseman in the latest issue of Sports Illustrated. “But I think there are real questions about his numbers. As much as I like him, what he admitted about his usage does cloud some of his records.”
…

If someone such as Rodriguez or Bonds or anyone else that has been linked to PED use is voted into the Hall by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Jackson predicts there will be a boycott.

“If any of those guys get in, no Hall of Famer will attend,” Jackson told SI.

Maybe Reggie needs to start selling his candy bar again to keep him from having time to make stupid comments.

Ok fine, I have no problem that he believes that no HOFers will attend if someone who was actually caught with using or admits to using steroids gets elected. I however, don’t believe it is the case since most of the HOFers make a ton of money at the various autograph sessions held during election weekend. I also don’t like the “admitted usage clouds some of his records” line. We know that there was a rampant use of greenies in the 1960’s and 1970’s, which happens to encompass most of Reggie’s prime years. We are just about sure that Hank Aaron used them (although has never actually admitted it, but he doesn’t deny it either), so wouldn’t that mean the record was tainted anyway?

Where it gets interesting is when he was asked about Andy Pettitte:

Jackson, 66, left the door open a bit for himself in regards to Andy Pettitte. He thinks the Yankees’ left-hander eventually will be voted into the Hall, making Pettitte a different case compared to other alleged or admitted users.
“The question is going to be a guy like Andy Pettitte, who admitted that he got involved for a while, but who is so universally respected in the game,” Jackson told SI. “I think he’ll get in, but there will be a lot of (members) who won’t go.”
Jackson seemed to indicate to SI that if Pettitte were inducted into the Hall he still may attend.
“He’s an awfully good friend,” Jackson said. “I’ve known Andy since he was 20. I’ll leave it there.”

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but it sure sounds like Reggie is saying that it is OK to elect someone who has admitted to using steroids as long as they are well liked by people in the game of baseball. So basically, Bonds, ARod, Clemens and Palmiero – you are all out because we never liked you. Andy Pettitte, come on in because you are actually a nice guy.

Where he really pissed me off was when he got to the part about the current Hall of Fame enshrines:

“I didn’t see Kirby Puckett as a Hall of Famer,” Jackson told SI. “I didn’t see Gary Carter as a Hall of Famer. I didn’t see Don Sutton as a Hall of Famer. I didn’t see Phil Niekro as a Hall of Famer. As much as I like Jim Rice, I’m not so sure he’s a Hall of Famer.”

OK, I am fine with Sutton, Niekro and Rice not being HOFers. Sutton and Niekro were compilers and Rice had a pretty short peak, oh, sort of like Reggie’s one time teammate, Hall of Famer Catfish Hunter. Funny how Reggie does not mention him. Puckett was probably borderline, but he was still putting up an OPS+ of around 130 when he retired at age 35 from glaucoma. I do think had Puckett played even 3 or 4 more years at around league average, he would have gone from borderline to solid HOF selection, so we will forgive that one. Gary Carter – one of the 10 best catchers to play the game not a HOFer? He unfortunately played in the same era as Johnny Bench and he played most of his prime in Montreal. If either of those 2 situations had not happened, Carter would be remembered in a better light.

And for the finale:

Jackson didn’t think Bert Blyleven should be voted in, either.
“Blyleven wasn’t even the dominant pitcher of his era; it was Jack Morris,” Jackson said.

So many things wrong with that statement. Blyleven was 5 years older and had already racked up 122 wins before Jack Morris became a semi-regular on the Tigers roster in 1978, which, just based on the historical numbers for pitchers, meant that 1970-1978 would be Blyleven’s prime years and 1979-1992 were his decline years. Just a quick and dirty look at Morris and Blyleven between 1979 and 1992:

  W-L IP SO ERA ERA+ WAR
Blyleven 151-127 2582.1 1791 3.78 108 38.6
Morris 233-162 3378.1 2199 3.71 109 36.1

Blyleven did miss an entire season with an injury in 1991 and came back in 1992 at age 42 with little success and then retired. Morris has the edge in IP and Wins, which you would expect from a pitcher 5 years younger during that range, but Blyleven was actually as good, if not better than Morris over the 13 year period.

Then again, we all know the best pitcher of that era was Dave Stieb anyway.

The Second Coming of Billy Hamilton

By Blaidd Drwg

Alexander Hamilton, not to be confused with either of the Billy Hamiltons, Vince Coleman or Rickey Henderson, getting ready to demonstrate his stolen base technique.

In case you don’t know who Billy Hamilton was, he was a speedy outfielder who played from 1888-1901, and depending on whose numbers you go by, stole somewhere between 750 and 900 bases in his career and happens to be a Hall of Famer. Billy Hamilton is also a 21 year old speedy infielder, currently in the Reds minor league system at class A Bakersfield.

Why do I mention this? Well, the current incarnation has plenty in common with his predecessor. (And no, I can’t find any evidence they are related). Last year at Class A Dayton, Billy Hamilton Mark 2 stole 103 bases in 123 attempts in 135 games. This season, Hamilton has stolen 101 bases in 122 attempts in just 80 games. Considering his pace, he can pass the “modern” minor league stolen base mark (since 1962) of 145 set by Vince Coleman (more on him in a minute) back in 1983. Hamilton probably has a great chance of doing this since he is sporting a 413 OBP and a 322 BA and playing in the California League where high altitudes and hot, dry nights cause a little additional offense.

I don’t know if Billy Hamilton will ever have much of a career in the majors, since he doesn’t hit for any power (career 389 SLG in the minors) and is really not a good fielding SS (career 937 fielding percentage) but he might stick around for a few season as a reserve OF/pinch runner type guy (see Otis Nixon) based on his 80% success rate in stealing bases.

Back to Vince Coleman for a minute – I had actually stumbled upon his 145 SB stat a few weeks ago when I was reading the back of his baseball card. Did you know he was only one of three players to have 3 – 100 SB seasons (and the only one to do it 3 consecutive years)? The other ones – Rickey Henderson and none other than the original Billy Hamilton. How’s that for bring this back around full circle?

Ray Allen Joins The Heat

by A.J. Coltrane

On Friday Ray Allen signed a 3 year, $9 million dollar contract with the Heat, turning down the Celtics’ offer of two years and $12 million.

It’s a perfect fit for Allen, and it’s exactly what the Heat need to repeat as champions. Allen will likely play 25-30 minutes a game, hang out in the corner, and bomb 3’s. The linked article also indicates that the Heat are pursuing Rashard Lewis, who would function as “Mike Miller is hurt” insurance.. and I’d expect Lewis’ play will improve when he’s healthy and motivated.

That would make for some interesting lineups for the Heat when they “play small” — LeBron, Wade, Allen, Bosh, and Battier/Lewis/Chalmers depending upon the matchups. In the modern NBA the center position isn’t as important as it once was, and the Heat are partly responsible for continuing the marginalization of the lumbering guys.

It’s good for Ray, good for the Heat, and bad for competitive balance in the NBA.

All of which I’m fine with.

Is the End Near for Methusela?

By Blaidd Drwg

The ‘real’ Methuselah rookie card. I am not sure he was old enough to drive when that picture was taken. Heck, I am not sure they had cars when that picture was taken.

I think it is time for Jamie Moyer to hang it up. He has had an interesting career and a strange ride this season:

  • Signed minor league contract with the Rockies in the off-season with an invite to spring training.
  • Makes the Rockies opening day roster.
  • Pitches poorly (like anyone is surprised that this happened) with the Rockies and is released.
  • Signed by the Orioles and assigned to AAA.
  • Pitches pretty well but the Orioles are not planning on calling him up, so he is released.
  • Signed by the Blue Jays and assigned to AAA.
  • Pitches poorly in AAA and is released by the Jays.

The Rockies have been so bad that their starters have an ERA somewhere around 7 this season, so that gives you an idea how bad Moyer was in Colorado. That is not really a surprise – a guy who tends to give up a ton of fly balls pitching in the best hitters park in the league, well, you get the idea.

I will admit, the Orioles release was a bit of a surprise – Moyer pitched well at AAA Norfolk, but the Orioles wanted to go in a different direction, so they released him. The funny thing is, the Orioles have actually demoted 3 of their starting pitchers since Moyer was released.

The Blue Jays experiment was also no surprise – Moyer pitching in the PCL, at altitude, in a small ballpark; that is Colorado part 2.

I haven’t seen any indication that Moyer is ready to give it up. I bet he is just waiting for someone to need an arm and give him a call. I honestly think he is done, but teams might get desperate

What I really would like to see when Moyer is ready to hang it up, is to sign with the Mariners. Not just a symbolic deal – I want to see him sign a deal where he starts one final game at Safeco Field, has an agreement with the opposing team to throw one pitch for a strike where the batter won’t swing and then pull him out of the game and have him walk off the mound to a standing ovation from a sold out crowd.

I think that would be a fitting career end for a pitcher that had one of the most improbable careers I have ever seen.

Welcome Back, Carlos Peguero

By Blaidd Drwg

The Mariners are starting to play musical chairs with their roster. The inconsistent Hector Noesi has bought himself a Sounder ticket to Tacoma and is being replaced in the rotation by Hisashi Iwakuma. I don’t particularly like Iwakuma, but with the All Star break looming, you don’t need to worry about your #5 starter for a couple of weeks.

Carlos Peguero is being recalled to replace Noesi. While I thought they needed to call up another OF when Guti went on the DL, they called up a pitcher, then Saunders came down with the flu, meaning we got to see Chone Figgins start for 5 games. Peguero has all of the makings of a 4A player – he has been killing the ball in the minors (this season to the tune of 18 HR is 49 games with a 1002 OPS) but he has huge holes in his swing and doesn’t have any plate discipline. This year he has 18 unintentional walks in 212 plate appearances, which would be pretty average in the majors (about 50 walks in 600 PA) but considering that number would deflate about 25% in the majors, you are talking about a guy who would probably draw about 35 walks over the course of the season. Look, strikeouts are not inherently bad – Adam Dun has struck out in nearly 50% of his AB this season and is batting 220, but he also is second in the AL in HR and has an OBP of 370, which is pretty darn good.

Peguero looked lost in his callup to the Mariners last season and I don’t see any reason to think he will have all of a sudden figured out how to hit MLB pitching in the meantime.

While you hope that his callup would inject some pop into the Mariners lineup, where exactly is he going to play? Peguero is a LF/DH type and a left handed bat. The Mariners roster seems to be riddled with those right now. Here are a few ways I see this playing out, in the order I see as most likely (I also make the assumption that Guti is on the DL for longer than expected – until at least after the AS break):

  • Peguero is mostly used as a PH and gets the occasional start and is back in Tacoma by July 20th.
  • Peguero takes most of the AB that are going to Montero at DH and Montero finds himself in Tacoma (this is what Geoff Baker thinks will happen) or on the DL.
  • Peguero is in a platoon with Casper Wells in left. I would assume that you would want Wells, one of 2 guys who have an OBP above 325 on the roster, in the lineup regularly, so he becomes your full time DH.

I also wonder if sending Montero down will mean that we could be seeing Danny Hultzen making his MLB debut sometime this month.