Predicting the 2013 NFL Season

By Blaidd Drwg

The great thing about baseball is that you can generally use advanced metrics to make a prediction about the performance of a team in an upcoming season with reasonable accuracy. There are certainly things you can’t predict (injuries, guys significantly over/under performing, luck, etc.) but those metrics have been tested and tweaked to give you a pretty reasonable picture of what will happen in the upcoming season.

Football, for whatever reason, doesn’t seem to enjoy the same level of prediction accuracy. Back in August, ESPN had their NFL preview and included projected standings based on a computer simulation. Here is what we got:

Team	Overall W-L	Home W-L	Road W-L
MIA	10-6	7-1	3-5
NE	9-7	8-0	1-7
BUF	5-11	5-3	0-8
NYJ	4-12	4-4	0-8
CIN	11-5	7-1	4-4
BAL	9-7	8-0	1-7
PIT	9-7	7-1	2-6
CLE	5-11	4-4	1-7
HOU	11-5	8-0	3-5
IND	8-8	6-2	2-6
TEN	6-10	6-2	0-8
JAX	4-12	4-4	0-8
DEN	13-3	8-0	5-3
KC	10-6	7-1	3-5
SD	5-11	5-3	0-8
OAK	4-12	4-4	0-8

WAS	10-6	8-0	2-6
DAL	8-8	7-1	1-7
NYG	8-8	7-1	1-7
PHI	6-10	6-2	0-8
GB	11-5	8-0	3-5
CHI	9-7	8-0	1-7
MIN	7-9	7-1	0-8
DET	5-11	4-4	1-7
ATL	11-5	8-0	3-5
TB	9-7	7-1	2-6
CAR	7-9	7-1	0-8
NO	6-10	6-2	0-8
SEA	13-3	8-0	5-3
SF	13-3	8-0	5-3
STL	7-9	7-1	0-8
AZ	3-13	3-5	0-8

It wasn’t the most accurate prediction as they only got 4 out of the 8 division winners correct and 2 out of the 4 Wild Card winners correct. The win totals look reasonable on a cursory level until I actually looked at what made up the records. According to the simulation, 10 teams would go undefeated at home in 2013, 10 teams would go 7-1 and only 6 teams would be .500 or worse. On the flip side, they predicted that only 4 teams would be at least .500 on the road (with no one going better than 5-3) and 19 teams would be either 1-7 or 0-8 away from home.

Now I don’t know exactly what went into the programming of the simulation, but let me tell you, this just looks wrong. It seems that the programmers put too much emphasis on home field advantage and caused some whacky results. I am surprised that they let this be published, given that any average football fan would realize these numbers just look wrong. Just how wrong are they? Well, I decided to look at the road records and over the past 11 NFL Seasons (2002 – 2012), there have been 13 teams that have failed to win a game on the road, which is about 4% of the teams. The prediction for 2013 was for 10 teams to go winless away from home, or 37%. On the flip, over the same period, 46% of NFL teams played at least .500 ball on the road. The computer for 2013? Just 12%. Um, I am pretty sure that you have a significant error in the calculation here.

In some ways, I am comparing apples to oranges by looking at the historical numbers. How did the computer actually do with its predictions? Well, here you go:

Number of Wins	Home Prediction	Home Actual	Road Prediction	Road Actual
0	0	0	12	1
1	0	2	7	6
2	0	1	4	4
3	1	5	5	8
4	5	6	1	6
5	2	7	3	2
6	4	5	0	5
7	10	3	0	0
8	10	3	0	0

Those numbers look pretty bad in comparison, especially at the upper and lower ends of the spectrum.

How about total wins? Well, that looks a little better, but only because the increased number of bands flattens out the distribution:

Number of Wins	Projected	Total
13	3	2
12	0	3
11	4	4
10	3	2
9	5	1
8	3	7
7	3	4
6	3	1
5	4	1
4	3	5
3	1	1
2	0	1

The moral of this story is if you are trying to figure out how many games your team will win in 2014, take a look at their schedule, go through it game by game and predict a winner. My guess is that you will be more accurate than the computer.

The NFL Fan Base

By Blaidd Drwg

A few weeks ago, Annie S. nephew tried to convince me that Seahawks fans are as loyal and supportive of their team as anyone else. He is young (under 25), so his memory doesn’t go too far back into history. I didn’t buy his argument.

I moved to Seattle in 2003 and got the opportunity to see my beloved Steelers in Seattle in November. I bought a ticket through the Seahawks website about 2 weeks before the game and there were a good number of seats available, so I had my pick. I took a bus down to Pioneer Square and walked to the stadium and virtually everyone I saw was clad in black and gold – not a single Seahawks jersey in sight. At the game, I would say there were probably 15-20 thousand Steelers fans, removing most of the home field advantage.

You may want to argue that this was an isolated incident, but it wasn’t. I did a bit of digging and found some interesting tidbits:

From the 2/14/2002 Seattle-PI:

State House members sent Seattle football fans a sweet Valentine: they passed a bill yesterday to end NFL blackouts of Seahawks games.

…

None of the Seahawks’ 2001-02 home games, played in Husky Stadium, sold out. Only one of those games was televised, Sept. 23 vs. the Eagles, because the NFL waived the blackout rule for the week following the disruption of the schedule due to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The Hawks received so little fan support in the early 2000’s that the state legislature tried to actually do something about it.

I thought this one was more interesting

From the 1/5/2005 Seattle-PI:

By CLARE FARNSWORTH
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

KIRKLAND — The Seahawks were granted a 24-hour extension today on the NFL’s blackout deadline because 5,000 tickets remain for Saturday’s playoff game against the St. Louis Rams at Qwest Field.

The league specifies that games must be sold out 72 hours in advance to avoid being blacked out on local television. The Seahawks were granted the extension because of the short turnaround from Sunday’s game, when the Seahawks beat the Atlanta Falcons to clinch the NFC West championship and home game in the first round of the playoffs — the first in Seattle since 1999.

The team has sold 61,000 tickets since Sunday, but must either sell the remaining tickets or have a sellout guaranteed by a sponsor by 1:30 p.m. Thursday for the game to be televised in the greater Seattle area.

Yep – the Seahawks almost failed to sell out a playoff game. They managed to avert the blackout, but just barely:

The playoff game was in danger of being blacked out in the Seattle area because about 6,000 tickets remained yesterday, but the NFL extended its deadline 24 hours. By Thursday afternoon, less than 1,000 tickets remained a sellout by NFL standards.

About 66,000 tickets were purchased over a 72-hour span, giving the Seahawks 16 consecutive home sellouts. Seattle’s record over that span, the team’s longest string of sellouts since 1992, is 12-3.

That doesn’t seem like great fan support and I am sure it will swing that way again once the team is no longer good in a couple of years. History doesn’t suggest that fans will support the Seahawks during a prolonged lousy streak.

Oh and about the “12^th Man” being the supposed best in the NFL. Go to a Steelers or Packers or Bears game and see how rabid their fans are. They make the Seahawks fans look like amateurs. Besides, the Seahawks were so unoriginal with coming up with the 12^th man thing that they stole it from the Texas A&M, who coined the term back in… wait for it… 1922.

What’s in a Name?

By Blaidd Drwg

As if one Wonderful Monds wasn't enough (love the afro) — As if one Wonderful Monds wasn’t enough (love the afro)

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.I think this gets my vote for the worst name in sports. His actual first name is Ha’Sean, according to Wikipedia, which is bad enough, but why the hell would you go by ‘Ha Ha’? I am not even going to touch his last name.

Oh, and he is apparently an NFL prospect. Could you see Roger Goodell going up to the podium and announcing, “With the 23^rd pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the Green Bay Packers select Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, saftey, from the Alabama Crimson Tide,” with a straight face?

Wonderful Terrific Monds (either I or II) he is not. I bet you had no idea that there were 2 guys named Wonderful Terriffic Monds (The father played football and the son baseball).

Edit – I stand corrected, there were actually 3 Wonderful Terriffic Monds. It appears that the football Monds was actually WTM II and the baseball Monds is WTM III.

The Stink About The Patriots – Panthers Game

by A.J. Coltrane

Last night the Patriots lost to the Panthers, 20-24. New England had the ball on the Carolina 18 yard line. Tom Brady tried to throw a pass into the end zone as time expired. The officials threw a flag, then picked it up and declared the game over. All of the talking heads freaked out.

Had the penalty stood, the Patriots would have had one more play, either from the 13 (for defensive holding), or from the 1 (if it was pass interference).

What the talking heads didn’t say:

The line was Panthers -1. They covered. Had New England gotten another attempt and scored a touchdown it would have swung the cover to the Patriots.

And — The Over/Under was 46.5. The final game score was 44, so the “Under” won. Had the Patriots scored a touchdown it would have moved to the “Over”.

I’m going to guess that most of the money was on the Patriots and the Over. I don’t have anything concrete to base that on, other than people like betting the Patriots, and they like betting the Over… If I’m correct, the bookies and sportsbooks are very happy right now.

Happiness Is A Healthy Quarterback

by A.J. Coltrane

I’m currently in an office pool where a buddy and I each picked four NFL teams to start the year. Success is (basically) based upon total team wins. I wound up with the Buccaneers and Titans (and the Ravens and the 49ers). The Bucs are now 1-8. The Titans are 4-5. I’m not doing as well as I’d like.

This got me looking for something to blame for my lack of awesomeness. I’ve decided it’s the fact that the quarterbacks on the teams that I picked have been hurt or surprisingly ineffective. I can’t control that, right?

The Bucs are 30th (out of 32 teams) in passing yards. Their quarterback to start the year was Josh Freeman. He got benched after three games, and cut shortly after that when nobody else wanted to trade for him. Apparently he’s a little too fond of being young, rich, and famous, if you know what I mean.

The Titans are 23rd in passing. Jake Locker has been hurt much of the year. He’s only appeared in five out of nine games, and he’s missed parts of two of those with mid-game injuries. He’s now out the rest of the year with a foot injury.

All of which led me to wonder, what’s the winning percentage of #1 quarterbacks vs the backups? (A #1 quarterback is defined as the guy that starts the first game of the year.) I guessed it’d be .550 for the Game 1 Starters vs .400 for whoever the club threw out there as a replacement.

The actual 2012 totals:

2012 Results	Wins	Losses	Total	Percent of games played
Week 1 Starter	239	221	0.520	90.2
Backups	16	34	0.320	9.8

I’m a little surprised the Week 1 starters played 90 percent of the games. I thought it’d be lower due to injury or whatever. Good to know.

The #1 starters performed loosely as expected, winning 52% of their games, but the guys that were backups to start the year won 32% of the games that they eventually started. Ick. That’s way worse than I had even guessed it might be.

The moral is, of course: Be very happy when the #1 QB is healthy. The alternatives are generally pretty dreadful.

The Book On The Seahawks

by A.J. Coltrane

Until the Seahawks prove otherwise they’re going to get a steady diet of what they got last night. The Rams defense packed eight players “into the box”, rushed the lanes on either side of the Center, and dared the Seahawks to throw. Teams have been doing that off and on the this year and last year, but I think the rest of the league will watch that game and say “Oh, ok…”

Marshawn Lynch wound up with 8 carries for 23 yards, and a big case of the grumpies.

Wilson was 10 of 18 for 139 yards — 80 of which was on one long touchdown pass. He was also sacked seven times; he’s currently 2nd (worst in the NFL) in sacks as a percentage of pass attempts. Seattle has allowed the 7th most sacks overall, mainly because they rarely throw the ball. They’re on pace to allow 54 sacks. Wilson won’t survive the season if it continues.

It’s a simple, obvious formula for the defense, and it’s something that’s been coming for a while. Wilson is too short to see over the line when pressure comes up the middle. Now we get to see how the Seahawks adjust.

What’s the adjustment?

“Get healthier at wide receiver and offensive line.”

…Ok…

———

They *are* 7-1, however. So there’s that. Just don’t count me among the believers.

Pushing a Player into the Line

By Blaidd Drwg

If you have been hiding under a rock, the Patriots got flagged for a penalty on a FG in overtime, which ultimately lead to the Jets kicking the winning FG. The Jets tipped the refs off that the Pats were using a play which one player pushed another into the line, which in the 2013 NFL rule book, is a penalty. I see no problem with a team telling the officials to watch out for something that the other team is doing illegally. It happens all of the time in baseball with pitchers.

This link has video of 2 ESPN idiots analysts arguing that the penalty should not have been called.

I don’t give a crap about the spirit of the rule. The actual rule is this (Rule 913 from the NFL Rulebook):

(2) Team B players cannot push teammates on the line of scrimmage into the offensive formation.

Penalty: For unnecessary roughness: Loss of 15 yards.

Based on the rule, it is a penalty. I don’t care what Skip Bayless or anyone else thinks the rule means. This is pretty clear. It mentions nothing about 2nd level.

Just remember, the Patriots won a playoff game a few years ago because the refs called a play based on the letter of the rule rather than the spirit. Perhaps you remember the Tuck Rule in the game against the Raiders? This is only a big deal because it is the Pats and Jets, two teams that hate each other. If this was any other 2 random NFL teams, this story would have already been put to bed.

What are the Seahawks?

by A.J. Coltrane

Expectations for the Seahawks have been sky-high this year, but are they a great team or just a good team? Popular opinion says “Great defense, great running game, great quarterback, they added a stud wide receiver in Percy Harvin, the young guys are maturing and improving … Super Bowl here we come!”

As the season has rolled on, the team health has been less than ideal. Most people I’ve talked to feel like the offense and defense will get a *lot* better when the starters return from injury. That remains to be seen, and it assumes that the collective team health actually improves and that nobody else gets newly hurt.

Bill Barnwell at Grantland offers this opinion:

Are the Seahawks a good team or are they the caliber of the best team in football? So far, it seems like the former. In the best-team pocket, they have that blowout win over the 49ers at home. In the other, they have narrow victories over the Panthers, Texans, and Titans, and a close loss to the Colts. I think they have the talent level to be the best team in football, and they’re only going to get better as their injured/suspended players (Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, and soon Percy Harvin) come back and get back in the swing of things. But the results haven’t been there yet.

Concerns: (As a refresher, there are now 32 NFL teams)

1. The Seahawks are 24th in passing yards per game.

2. They’re 5th worst in offensive sack percentage (Sacks divided by attempts.)

3. They’re 28th in offensive 3rd down conversion percentage. (link) (Or 5th worst again.)

4. They have the 5th most penalties on the year, and they’re 3rd in penalty yards. (same link as #3.)

5. Last year the Seahawks had the 4th healthiest team in the league. They’re not nearly that healthy this year.

The Good Stuff:

1. They’re 2nd in rushing yards/ game.

2. They’re 8th in rushing yards/ attempt.

3. The defense is 2nd in yards allowed per game. It breaks out to 2nd in passing yards allowed, 11th in rushing yards allowed.

4. They’re 3rd in points allowed per game.

I’m of the opinion that the Seahawks have a great defense, a good running game, and a fringy passing game. Overall I’d go with “good” or “very good”. We’ll see if that’s enough.

NFL Pass Attempt Heat Maps

by A.J. Coltrane

Where do NFL teams target when they throw the ball?

and

What’s remarkable is just how short the average pass attempt travels in the air — only 31 percent travel more than 10 yards . (More on that in the link.) It’s an ESPN/ Grantland/ The Triangle/ Kirk Goldsberry piece. There’s lots more detail (and neat graphics) in the article.

Here’s a link to Kirk Goldsberry’s archive page. He does a lot of similar stuff that involves the NBA, NFL, and specific player tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. For example, here’s a piece focusing on what was going right and wrong for LeBron James during last year’s Finals. “There Is No Red Zone – The NFL’s Scoring Myth” looks at expected points based on down and field position and asks why announcers talk about “The Red Zone” like it’s something significant.

It’s stats! It’s cool graphics! Win + win!

2013 NFL MVP Odds

by A.J. Coltrane

2013 NFL MVP Odds at ESPN.

Rank	Candidate	Odds
1	Peyton Manning	5-1
2	Aaron Rodgers	13-2
3	Colin Kaepernick	10-1
3	Drew Brees	10-1
5	Adrian Peterson	12-1
5	Tom Brady	12-1
7	Matt Ryan	15-1
8	Robert Griffin III	18-1
8	Russell Wilson	18-1
10	Andrew Luck	25-1
10	Calvin Johnson	25-1
10	Eli Manning	25-1
Source: @BovadaLV

I think the best value is Matt Ryan. Atlanta has two outstanding wide receivers and they’re going to have to throw to win. It’s an interesting look at who’s considered “hot” right now.