Category: NFL

What are the Seahawks?

by A.J. Coltrane

Expectations for the Seahawks have been sky-high this year, but are they a great team or just a good team? Popular opinion says “Great defense, great running game, great quarterback, they added a stud wide receiver in Percy Harvin, the young guys are maturing and improving …  Super Bowl here we come!” 

As the season has rolled on, the team health has been less than ideal. Most people I’ve talked to feel like the offense and defense will get a *lot* better when the starters return from injury. That remains to be seen, and it assumes that the collective team health actually improves and that nobody else gets newly hurt.

Bill Barnwell at Grantland offers this opinion:

Are the Seahawks a good team or are they the caliber of the best team in football? So far, it seems like the former. In the best-team pocket, they have that blowout win over the 49ers at home. In the other, they have narrow victories over the Panthers, Texans, and Titans, and a close loss to the Colts. I think they have the talent level to be the best team in football, and they’re only going to get better as their injured/suspended players (Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, and soon Percy Harvin) come back and get back in the swing of things. But the results haven’t been there yet. 

Concerns:  (As a refresher, there are now 32 NFL teams)

1.  The Seahawks are 24th in passing yards per game.

2.  They’re 5th worst in offensive sack percentage (Sacks divided by attempts.)

3.  They’re 28th in offensive 3rd down conversion percentage. (link)  (Or 5th worst again.)

4.  They have the 5th most penalties on the year, and they’re 3rd in penalty yards. (same link as #3.)

5.  Last year the Seahawks had the 4th healthiest team in the league. They’re not nearly that healthy this year.

The Good Stuff:

1.  They’re 2nd in rushing yards/ game.

2.  They’re 8th in rushing yards/ attempt.

3.  The defense is 2nd in yards allowed per game.  It breaks out to 2nd in passing yards allowed, 11th in rushing yards allowed.

4.  They’re 3rd in points allowed per game.

 

I’m of the opinion that the Seahawks have a great defense, a good running game, and a fringy passing game. Overall I’d go with “good” or “very good”. We’ll see if that’s enough.

NFL Pass Attempt Heat Maps

by A.J. Coltrane

Where do NFL teams target when they throw the ball?

All_NFL_Passes_1152

and

grant_Passing_Hexagons_1152

What’s remarkable is just how short the average pass attempt travels in the air — only 31 percent travel more than 10 yards . (More on that in the link.) It’s an ESPN/ Grantland/ The Triangle/ Kirk Goldsberry piece. There’s lots more detail (and neat graphics) in the article.

Here’s a link to Kirk Goldsberry’s archive page. He does a lot of similar stuff that involves the NBA, NFL, and specific player tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. For example, here’s a piece focusing on what was going right and wrong for LeBron James during last year’s Finals. “There Is No Red Zone – The NFL’s Scoring Myth”  looks at expected points based on down and field position and asks why announcers talk about “The Red Zone” like it’s something significant.

It’s stats! It’s cool graphics! Win + win!

2013 NFL MVP Odds

by A.J. Coltrane

2013 NFL MVP Odds at ESPN.

Rank Candidate Odds
1 Peyton Manning 5-1
2 Aaron Rodgers 13-2
3 Colin Kaepernick 10-1
3 Drew Brees 10-1
5 Adrian Peterson 12-1
5 Tom Brady 12-1
7 Matt Ryan 15-1
8 Robert Griffin III 18-1
8 Russell Wilson 18-1
10 Andrew Luck 25-1
10 Calvin Johnson 25-1
10 Eli Manning 25-1
Source: @BovadaLV

 

I think the best value is Matt Ryan. Atlanta has two outstanding wide receivers and they’re going to have to throw to win. It’s an interesting look at who’s considered “hot” right now.

The Best QB in the NFL is…

By Blaidd Drwg

In a league where you have Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, would you consider Alex Smith the best QB in the league?

Well apparently Chief’s Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson does:

“Ultimately, every team has to have a quarterback,” Pederson told The Kansas City Star. “I think we have the best in the league.”
…
“There are a lot of great ones, but over time, Alex has proven he can get it done,” Pederson told the newspaper. “He’s a sharp guy, he brings a wealth of knowledge, he’s experienced, he’s a proven winner the last couple of years, and he needs a team to embrace him.”

Alex Smith has proven he can “get it done”? Really? The same Alex Smith who has only two seasons in 8 years in the league where he started more than 10 games? The same Alex Smith who proved so inept at running an offense earlier in his career that he has managed to compile a 38-36-1 career record? The same Alex Smith who last season couldn’t win back his job after he got hurt from a guy whom, up until that point had thrown 14 passes in the NFL?

Must be a different Alex Smith we are talking about.

The whole story is here on ESPN.com.

The Rock, Milk and Super Bowl Ads

By Blaidd Drwg

I really stopped caring about the commercials in the Super Bowl years ago when most of them just generally started to suck. Companies then got smart and started releasing their Super Bowl ads before the game on the web to generate buzz by putting them online. Last year, it was the Darth Vader Volkswagen commercial that drew the most attention. I watched it and thought it was one of the greatest commercials ever. I then saw it when it aired and I was confused – it really wasn’t as good as I remembered it being. I decided to do a bit of research and found that the version posted online was over a minute long and it got edited down to fit in a 30 second spot. It may not seem like a big deal, but could you imagine trying to watch a 2 hour version of any of the Lord of the Rings movies if they had to cut out half of the film.

Flash forward to this year. I thought that the milk commercial starring The Rock was brilliant and I essentially laughed out loud most of the time. It got very little reaction from the crowd watching it, and once again, I knew why – the online version was 1 minute long, but they edited it down to a 30 second spot. What was lost was the long shots of The Rock stopping at each disaster and deciding he didn’t have time to deal with it. Here is the version of the ad that aired during the game:

Here is the full version of the ad:

I will leave it up to you to decide, but I really think this is on par with the VW Vader Commercial.

Round Two

by A.J. Coltrane

Atlanta represents a very different opponent. They’re going to throw the ball. A lot.

  Run Pass Overall
Seahawks Offense 3rd 27th 17th
Falcons Defense 21st 23rd 24th
       
Falcons Offense 29th 6th 8th
Seahawks Defense 6th 10th 4th
The line is Atlanta by 2.5. The Over/Under is 46.
 
According to Scouts, Inc., DE Chris Clemons is Seattle’s best player, and he’s out with an ACL injury.
 
See:
 
 
I don’t see either team really stopping the other. The Seattle defensive backs and linebackers are going to have a rough time covering Jones, White, and Gonzalez. Atlanta probably won’t really be able to shut down the Seattle running game.
 
The Washington and over didn’t work out last week, but this week the Seahawks won’t be facing a crippled quarterback. If this week’s game comes down to a shootout I’d put my fictional money on the more proven quarterback with the vastly superior receiving corps. For silly prediction purposes I’ll take Atlanta and the Over.
 

Round One

by A.J. Coltrane

The line is Seahawks by 3, even though they’re the lower seed and they’re playing on the road. The Over/Under is 46. This is exactly the kind of game that I don’t like to gamble on — see the chart below.
  Run Pass Overall
Seahawks Offense 3rd 27th 17th
Redskins Defense 5th 30th 28th
       
Redskins Offense 1st 20th 5th
Seahawks Defense 6th 10th 4th

Both teams prefer to run and have strong run games. Both teams are good at stopping the run. Either one or both teams may be forced to throw more than they’d like, and the game may come down to which quarterback has the better day.

…and to make it more interesting…

Both quarterbacks are rookies, and each has had an efficient season to this point — they’re 3rd and 4th in Quarterback Rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Maybe they’re both capable of a big day. At the very least each will provide a direct-comparison yardstick to use in evaluating the other. To me that’s going to be the most interesting part of watching the game.

This is likely one of those games that the team giving up the fewest turnovers wins.

Which is why I don’t like to gamble on this kind of game. I visualize a lot of cringing happening on Sunday, no matter what outcome you’re rooting for.

—-

For the purposes of silly predictions: I’ll take the Redskins and the 3 points and the Over.

The Strike Zone, Morales, And Vick

by A.J. Coltrane

1.  First off, here’s a look at the size of a MLB strike zone, by count. (Hint:  It’s not even remotely the same, depending upon the situation.) Includes very cool visuals.

2.  The M’s trade a pitcher (Jason Vargas) for a hitter (Kendrys Morales). It’s basically just defense for offense. Both players have one year left before free agency. Morales is represented by Scott Boras, so I’d assume Morales is basically a rental. Actually, I kind of hope that he is. Morales is Cuban, so who knows how old he is, really? Plus, it’s Scott Boras we’re talking about dealing with here. Pass.

USSM has two posts with excellent analysis of the trade and the aftermath.

3.  Finally, because I couldn’t leave it alone:  The Jets are reported to be seeking to trade Mark Sanchez and they have an interest in Michael Vick.

Good Lord. Really?!

Repeat after me:  “If Michael Vick is the answer, you’re asking the wrong question.”

Upset

by A.J. Coltrane

I’m playing in a restaurant pool where contestants pick the winner of each NFL game. The restaurant awards gift certs if you have the best weekly record, or the best record at the end of the season. Underdogs won 10 out of 14 games outright last week. I didn’t pick anything like 10 underdogs last week, so this was me:

 

Copout-gate 2012

By Blaidd Drwg

The NFL ref situation is now beyond ridiculous. Everyone knows about the botched calls at the end of the Seahawks-Packers game that resulted in a Seahawks win.

Well, the NFL decided to release a statement about the game, and, in the biggest copout ever, Roger Goodell said this:

While the ball is in the air, Tate can be seen shoving Green Bay cornerback Sam Shields to the ground. This should have been a penalty for offensive pass interference, which would have ended the game. It was not called and is not reviewable in instant replay.

I am fine with that. It was a play that was missed, although I am less likely to excuse the missed call on the interference based on the lousy calls earlier in the 4th quarter, one of which included Sidney Rice doing everything but stabbing Green Bay DB Sam Shields on a pass play and Shields getting called for pass interference.
The travesty is the NFL won’t admit that the refs and the replay officials got the call wrong on the actual interception:

Replay Official Howard Slavin stopped the game for an instant replay review. The aspects of the play that were reviewable included if the ball hit the ground and who had possession of the ball. In the end zone, a ruling of a simultaneous catch is reviewable. That is not the case in the field of play, only in the end zone.

Referee Wayne Elliott determined that no indisputable visual evidence existed to overturn the call on the field, and as a result, the on-field ruling of touchdown stood. The NFL Officiating Department reviewed the video today and supports the decision not to overturn the on-field ruling following the instant replay review.

I am not really sure which replay the officials were looking at, but there was definitely enough evidence to overturn the call in just about everyone’s opinion. What I suspect this is all really about is the league does not want to give any leverage to the officials that they locked out. By admitting that the replacement refs blew both calls, the locked out officials could use that as leverage in their negotiations.

That being said, I am tired of watching the officials constantly blow calls and get calls wrong, so I won’t be watching another minute of NFL football until the regular refs are back blowing calls weekly.

 

Update: It appears sometime between the time I wrote this and the time I posted it, the regular refs are going to be back at work.