And Down the Stretch They Come…

By Blaidd Drwg

The NL has 4 of its 5 playoff spots finalized, with only the 2nd wild card still remaining. Even then, the Cardinals have a 3 game lead over the Dodgers with 6 games remaining, making it unlikely that the Dodgers will catch the Redbirds.

The AL is a different story – no one has actually clinched a playoff spot and it could be an interesting last week of the season. Going into Friday’s games, the Yankees lead the east by 1, the Tigers lead the central by 2 and the Rangers lead the west by 4. The wild card also has races, with the Orioles 1 game ahead of the A’s for the first spot and the A’s 2 games ahead of the Angels and Rays for the 2nd spot.

Here is how this is going to play out:
East:
Yankees have 6 games left – 3 at Toronto and 3 vs. Boston. They are in the best position to win the division since they play the two worst teams in the division and neither Boston nor Toronto is playing particularly well right now. As much as I know the Red Sox would like to spoil the Yankees playoff chances, I don’t think it will happen. I see the Yankees taking 5 of the 6 to win the division.

Orioles have 6 games left – 3 vs. Boston and 3 at Tampa.
Rays have 6 games left – 3 at Chicago and 3 vs. Baltimore.
The final TB-Baltimore series could really put a monkey wrench in the playoff chances for one of the two teams. Both the O’s and the Rays are hot and they both need to sweep their weekend series. It is entirely possible that both of these teams could make it to the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do.

Central:
Last week, the White Sox had a 3 game lead in the division. This week, they are trailing the Tigers by 2.
The White Sox need to take at least 2 out of three from the Rays (they really need a sweep) and then sweep the Indians in their last series. Why? Well the Tigers benefit from the most favorable remaining schedule of all the contenders – the have 3 at KC and finish with 3 vs. Minnesota. That is going to make it very tough on the Sox.

West:
The Rangers are in the driver’s seat, but by no means have it locked. They play 3 vs. the Angels and 3 at Oakland. Basically if they take 2 out of 3 from the Halos, the Rangers win the division and the Angels go home for the season.

The A’s are playing the Mariners for 3 and then finish with the Rangers. They really need to sweep the M’s and hope that either the Rangers fell apart against the Angels or have won the division and decided to monkey with their rotation to get it set for the playoffs. The A’s are a longshot to win the division but are in a pretty good spot for a wild card, even with their all-rookie rotation.

The Angels just basically need to win out against the Rangers and the Mariners. It could mean that there is meaningful baseball played in Safeco field in October, just not for the Mariners.

My Prediction:
East Winner: Yankees
Central Winner: Tigers
West Winner: Rangers
Wild Card 1: Orioles
Wild Card 2: A’s

Depending on everyone’s final record and how the wild card standings finish, you could actually end up with this nightmare scenario:

Oakland wins the 2nd wild card and flies to Baltimore, arriving sometime in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday

Oakland at Baltimore for the wild card game on Friday if Baltimore ends up with the best wild card record.

New York at Baltimore for the ALDS on Sunday if NY ends up with the best record.

MLB has decided in its infinite wisdom that the team with the best record gets to play the wild card winner (great), but the series format is 2 games at the WC winner and 3 at the Division Winner. So, the Yankees might not know that the need to get on a flight to Oakland until late Friday night. As much as I hate the Yankees, I don’t understand how that makes any sense. It probably negates any advantage they gain from playing the wild card winner. Of course, this gets much more interesting if there is a tie anywhere and we need a playoff to determine the winner.

Redemption and a Witness to Perfection

By Blaidd Drwg

The aftermath of perfection as viewed from my seat.

I wrote recently about missing out on seeing Derek Lowe’s no hitter in 2002. I actually wrote that piece over a month ago, before April 21st happened. What is so special about April 21st? It happens to be the day the Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox threw the 21st perfect game in MLB history against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. It was a day game, so the person who has the tickets in the seats next to mine only needed one of her tickets and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted the other one. My wife’s sister, a big Mariners fan, was interested and joined us – and I am sure that it was something that she won’t regret, ever.

In the 400 or so baseball games I have witnessed, I have seen several no-hitters get broken up with 2 outs in the 8th inning and two get broken up in the ninth. Sitting through a no-hitter, let alone a perfect game, is tough since it could end with one bad bounce, especially if the pitcher throwing the no-no is on the opposing team. I have seen triple plays, 3 home run games, players hitting for the cycle, Ichiro setting the single season hit record, and Rafael Palmeiro’s 3000th hit but never a 9 inning no hitter.

My rule is this – if there is a no-hitter at the start of the 8th inning, you start rooting for that pitcher, regardless of who he plays for, which is exactly what I did on April 21st. It was pretty obvious looking at the scoreboard that Humber had not given up a hit, but I am not sure how many of the 22,000 fans at the game realized that he had not given up anything. He was cruising; his pitch count was in the low 70’s going into the 8th inning and he really looked dominating. The Mariners, not exactly sporting a lineup that would remind anyone of Murder’s Row, sent Smoak, Seager and Montero up to bat in the 8th. Humber retired the side on 11 pitches. You could almost cut the tension with a knife.

I believe the Mariners did something in the top of the 9th (I can’t prove it) that I thought was a little unsportsmanlike – with Steve Delabar on the mound, they seemed to take a huge amount of time between pitches. Like I said, I can’t prove it, but it seemed that way and I wonder if Wedge was trying to leave Humber on the bench longer to get into his head. It actually almost worked.

Humber came out in the 9th and looked shaky – he went 3-0 on Michael Saunders before striking him out. At this point, my stomach was in knots. Most people were pulling for Humber at this point, and you would hate to see him lose the perfect game because his control deserted him all of a sudden. He looked better on Jaso, getting him to fly out on 3 pitches. That left Brendan Ryan as the only thing between Humber and a perfect game. It was an ugly at bat, one that made me hold my breath on every pitch. Humber got ahead of Ryan 1-2. Just one more strike. If I was Ryan, I would have been swinging at anything close, just because I wouldn’t want to be the last out in a perfect game. The next 2 pitches missed badly and all of a sudden, we are sitting with a full count, 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. No pressure on Humber there. Ryan fouled the next pitch off. The tension was incredible. Then Humber threw an ugly breaking ball in the dirt that Ryan checked his swing on. The home plate umpire ruled he went around (from my vantage point behind home plate, it looked like he checked the swing) and the ball went past AJ Pierzynski to the backstop. At this point I am yelling “throw it to first”. Pierzynski is not exactly a fast man but fortunately for Humber, Ryan took 2 steps toward first and then turned back to argue with the umpire. Had he run, he would have easily beaten the throw to first, breaking up the perfect game and leaving the no hitter intact with Chone Figgins on deck. I firmly believe that if Figgins had come up, the baseball gods would have conspired to end Humber’s no hit bid.

So instead of a potentially heartbreaking situation, or at least one of the most bizarre ways that a perfect game would have been broken up, we got to witness perfection, even if it may have been questionably so.