Tag: MLB

Hitting Your Way Out of a Paper Bag

By Blaidd Drwg

Once again, the Mariners are hitting like they can’t punch their way out of a paper bag. Thus far this season, the Mariners have scored fewer total runs than all but one AL team – the Chicago White Sox (actually they have outscored the Nationals, Phillies (just barely), Marlins and Dodgers, but that is the NL, so it hardly counts, but more on that in a moment). It is actually worse than that – the Mariners have outscored the Pale Hose by a whopping 2 runs and have played 3 more games than Chicago, so the Sox have actually scored more runs per game than the Mariners. It has been so bad that the Mariners have been outscored by the Astros (!!!) by 16 runs in the same number of games. That is the same Astros lineup that I ripped on earlier this season. At least the Mariners offense hasn’t been historically bad this year and they seem to be hitting about as well (if you can call it that) at home as on the road.

Sadly, the despite the vast improvement, they are still in sorry shape. Morales, Seager and Morse have been ok, Shoppach and Bay have been better than expected; Smoak has been drawing walks (but not much else) and hasn’t looked completely hopeless at the plate. Montero, Ackley, Ryan, Andino and Chavez have all been wasted at bats though in this lineup. The M’s have gotten so little production out of their #9 spot in the order that they might as well be a NL team. Here is how the #9 hitter compares to the teams in the NL who have scored fewer runs. Keep in mind that the AB’s for the NL teams come from a combination of the pitchers batting and pinch hitters. Just for the heck of it, I am including the Tigers, who lead baseball in runs scored. (Stats from baseball-reference.com)

BA OBP SLG sOPS+
Mariners .168 .235 .206 63
Nationals .134 .185 .190 38
Phillies .201 .242 .329 107
Marlins .155 .214 .169 42
Dodgers .197 .255 .282 96
Tigers .292 .317 .456 180

Basically the Mariners are getting the same production from Chavez/Ryan/Andino in the 9th spot as National League teams get from their pitchers. That is not a recipe for success.

The M’s took the first step in trying to right the ship by sending Montero down to Tacoma, but they did call up a no-hit, all-glove catcher in Jesus Sucre, so that won’t help much. The next step is probably sending down Ackley and bringing up Nick Franklin. I think Ackley needs to get some time in the bandbox that is Cheney Stadium to get his groove back. The shortstop mess is probably not fixable this season, so we will probably get another 120 games of almost automatic outs from the bottom of the lineup.

My prediction – if the M’s don’t have a winning record on this home stand, Eric Wedge will be looking for a new job. I hear Don Mattingly might be available soon…

The Mariners Jekyll and Hyde Pitching Staff

By Blaidd Drwg

Once you get past Felix and Iwakuma, the Mariners starting rotation has been a lovely collection Jekyll & Hyde type pitchers, making them more than frustrating to watch. Don’t believe me, here is what you have to look forward to (stats as of Monday May 13th).

Joe Saunders – pitches like Steve Carlton at home and Steve Blass on the road. Saunders may have the ugliest platoon splits I have ever seen:

W-L GS ERA IP BB SO WHIP ERA BAA
Home 3-0 4 0.93 28.2 7 15 0.82 0.94 .180
Road 0-4 4 12.54 18.2 11 5 2.52 12.54 .424

Now I know it is early in the season and sample size issues still abound here, but if you watch this guy pitch, he looks like 2 completely different pitchers depending on the venue. Now I realize that both the home and road stats will regress to the mean, but it almost feels like Wedge needs to pitch someone else when they are on the road. That is how bad Saunders has looked in those 4 starts. Historically, Saunders was “not bad” at Safeco, which is why I am assuming they signed him, but I am not sure what is going wrong when his is on the road.

Brandon Maurer – pitches like Ricky Vaughn against right handed batters and Vaughn Eshelman against lefties. The guys over at USS Mariner had a good article about this recently. Here is the ugly truth:

AB/H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
Vs RHB 70/17 4 0 2 3 17 .243 .303 .688
Vs LHB 67/24 7 1 5 7 5 .358 .419 1.135

It is not unusual to see a platoon split with a significant amount of variance for a pitcher against the opposite hand hitter, but this is pretty extreme. The issue, according to USSM is this:

Maurer has four pitches, but he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy. He throws his slider a lot, in fact. Among qualified starters, PITCHF/x only has three pitchers throwing more pitches classified as sliders than Brandon Maurer this year. As you probably know, the slider has the biggest platoon split of any pitch in baseball. There’s a reason every situational reliever in baseball throws a million sliders. It’s why the Mariners have a bullpen full of match-up guys who just come in and throw slider after slider.

The slider is not a good pitch to opposite handed hitters, but it’s great against same-handed hitters. Pitchers who throw a lot of sliders tend to have huge platoon splits. Brandon Maurer has huge platoon splits.

It is obvious Maurer has talent but he needs to learn how to get left handed hitters out at a somewhat better rate if he wants to be successful. The majors are not the place for that. He looks tentative against lefties when he pitches and I really think the Mariners need to do something about that before his confidence is completely shot and teams just stack their lineup with lefties when they face him.

Aaron Harang – well, now that I think about it, he has just plain sucked. If you want a positive spin on this, his ERA in April was 11.37 and in May it is 3.00. That should count for something.

Getting the Call Right

By Blaidd Drwg

What is up with the umpires in MLB right now? Two days last week involved just flat out terrible decisions by the crews involved. I have written about this before – things happen very quickly on a baseball field and calls can get missed or come out wrong. This I understand; the umpires are human and they make mistakes. My issue is when you incorrectly apply a rule or use the replay and still get it wrong.

In case you have been under a rock, here is what happened:

On May 8th in the 9th inning of the A’s-Indians game, Adam Rosales hit a shot to left center field that hit a railing behind the fence and was initially not ruled a home run. Bob Melvin immediately left the dugout and asked for a review, which he was given. Crew chief Angel Hernandez came back out a few minutes later and ruled it a double, even though it was clear to everyone – the players, fans and announcers that the ball did, in fact clear the wall. Well, everyone except the 3 umpires who looked at the replay. Melvin came back out to argue and summarily (and properly) was tossed from the game.

I happened to be watching the Red Sox get pounded by the Twins that evening and was only half paying attention to the TV when they cut into the game about the issue. I looked up at the replay, said, “home run” and immediately tuned back out what the commentators were saying.

My problem here is two-fold – Angel Hernandez made the situation worse by not making himself or the crew available after the game and MLB’s cop-out response to the issue. Hernandez is generally one of the worst umps in baseball and he did nothing to aid that perception by not only getting the call wrong but then not willing to face the music afterwards. At this point, Hernandez needs to be fired – he is horrible at his job and if it was any other profession in America, he probably would have been long gone. MLB’s response was worse:

By rule, the decision to reverse a call by use of instant replay is at the sole discretion of the crew chief. In the opinion of Angel Hernandez, who was last night’s crew chief, there was not clear and convincing evidence to overturn the decision on the field. It was a judgment call, and as such, it stands as final.

I don’t see how replay is a judgment call. This is MLB admitting that the call was wrong but not being willing to do anything about it. Unless Hernandez was looking at a replay from a different game or looking at it on a 13 inch black and white TV with crappy reception, I don’t see any way he could have gotten it wrong.

Here is a montage of the call from all 4 broadcasts – both radio and TV for the A’s and Indians. They all think it is a home run.

On May 9th, the Astros initiated a pitching change. Astros manager Bo Porter brought in Wesley Wright, who took a couple of warm up pitches before Porter came back out and replaced him with Hector Ambriz. Angels manager Mike Scioscia, who probably knows the rules of the game better than any manager, came out to argue that Wright could not come out of the game without facing one batter – Scioscia is right, any pitcher who enters a game needs to face one batter unless he is hurt before the batter is retired or reaches base (which did not appear to be the case here). This is basic rules 101 for umpires and one of the 4 umps on the field – Home Plate – Adrian Johnson, First Base – Fieldin Culbreth, Second Base – Brian O’Nora, Third Base – Bill Welke, should have realized this or at least looked it up if they were not sure. This is a pretty good crew, so it is more inexcusable that they would have botched such a straight forward call.

The 2013 Houston Astros

By Iron Chef Leftovers

The Astros are horrible. If you think I am exaggerating, Vegas had a closing line of 58 wins for them for the 2013 season. That translates into a 104 loss season. How bad is that? Well it would actually be an improvement over their last 2 seasons in which they lost 106 and 107 games. After seeing them play, I would be surprised if they don’t lose 110 games this season.

So much was made of the dismantling of the Florida Miami Marlins that the Astros managed to take their team apart with no one noticing. They traded just about everyone making more than a few bucks an hour and left themselves with a payroll of somewhere around $25 million for the season. Or, to put it in perspective, less than what the Yankees are paying Arod not be on the DL. Their “highest” paid player isn’t even on their roster – they are paying 5 million to Wandy Rodriguez, who is currently pitching in Pittsburgh. The only 2 guys that are making more than 2 million are Bud Norris (who is actually their “best” pitcher) and Carlos Pena (who will be gone by May the way he is swinging the bat), and they are both making about 3 million for the season.

This is a team that can’t hit and can’t pitch – they went into the season with Jose Veras as their closer, a guy described by Dave Schoenfield as:

Might not get a save opportunity until May

30. Jose Veras, Astros.
Now 32, he’s pitched for the Yankees, Indians, Marlins, Pirates and Brewers and has five career saves.

Before becoming a closer: The Brewers had the worst bullpen in the majors last year and even they didn’t want him back.

In their recent game against the Mariners (in the M’s home opener), their #4 hitter came out of the game. We had to look up who it was since none of us could actually name him. Here is the lineup they used:

Jose Altuve 2B
Justin Maxwell CF
Chris Carter DH
J.D. Martinez LF
Rick Ankiel RF
Carlos Pena 1B
Matt Dominguez 3B
Jason Castro C
Brandon Barnes RF-LF
Ronny Cedeno SS

If that lineup doesn’t scream “110 losses, here we come!” I am not sure what would.

The Slugging Houston Astros

By Blaidd Drwg

How bad did it get for the Mariners Tuesday night? Well they lost to Houston 16-9:  This is the  same Astros team that had not won since opening day and in their previous 7 games racked up these overwhelming totals:

Runs – 17
Home Runs – 2
Walks – 10
Hits – 46

So of course, Tuesday they hang 16 Runs, 5 Home Runs, 6 Walks and 22 Hits on Mariners pitchers. I have an upcoming post on just how bad Houston actually is, so check that out tomorrow.

The M’s also drew a stellar 10,700 for a game that was played on a nice evening, which was right about what I figured they would draw for the game, although I am sure that the number of people who showed up was far less.

In the meantime, I think that young Brandon Mauer may have just pitched himself back to Tacoma, as he gave up 6 runs in just 2/3 of an inning in his second start. After sporting a nifty 1.50 ERA during spring training, he now has an ugly 16.20 ERA in real games. This is why I put no faith in spring training numbers. He is 23, so I think it is time to send him down and bring someone else up before his confidence is completely destroyed. My guess is that Jeremy Bonderman is called up to fill the spot until May when we see Danny Hultzen make his debut.

A Veritable Cornucopia

By Blaidd Drwg

From Dave Schoenfield’s espn.com chat on 11/27:

Matt (Kansas City)
Would Lorenzo Cain, Johnny Giavotella, Jorge Bonifacio, Chris Dwyer, Mike Montgomery, and Bruce Chen be enough to land Giancarlo Stanton from a value and a Union standpoint?

David Schoenfield
(2:10 PM)
No. You don’t really see the poo-poo platter trades in MLB.

Hehe. He said poo.

As Homer Simpson would say, mmmm…sampler platter….

R.A. Dickey and Long Term Contracts

By Blaidd Drwg

R.A. Dickey is the reigning Cy Young award winner in the NL. R.A. Dickey has had 2 great and 1 pretty good season in his career. R.A. Dickey is under contract with the Mets for 2013 (making $5 million). R.A. Dickey is looking for a long-term contract from the Mets (I have heard 4 years north of $50 million). R.A. Dickey is 38 years old.

I think Dickey’s success story has been an amazing one. He was a 1st round pick of the Rangers in 1996, was pitching with no ligaments in his elbow, didn’t make his MLB debut until 2001 at age 26, didn’t get another shot at the majors until 2003 at age 28, was generally pretty lousy for most of his career, developed a fast knuckleball, went to the Mets and then finally seemed to be able to get MLB hitters out at age 35, winning the Cy Young last season.

That being said, I really don’t think you want to sign a guy who has a very short track record and is at an age where most pitchers are not really effective. Maybe Dickey will surprise me and be effective well into his 40’s, but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it. The other red flag – he had a massive jump in his K rate. His last three seasons, the rate hovered around 5.5/9 IP. Last season, it was 8.9/9 IP. I just see this ending poorly by 2014 or 2015 for any team that signs him to the deal he wants or really anything longer than 2 years.

Post Script: I wrote this article about a week before R.A. Dickey was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on 12/17 for 2 high ceiling prospects and Dickey received 2 year, $25 million contract extension, which seems a little high on the dollar side (appearantly to account for the higher tax rate in Canada) but about right on the years.

2013 Hall of Fame Ballot

By Blaidd Drwg

This year the Hall of Fame ballot gets crowded and interesting. Steroids argument aside, you have two guys who statistically are among the 10 best players in the history of the game and 4 guys who have a strong case that they should be in the Hall, and those are just the guys who are on the ballot for the first time this year.

If I had a vote, my ballot would have the 10 name maximum on it this year and probably for the next 4 or 5 years. Here is how it would look (keep in mind the steroid questions are a non-issue for me):

The New Guys
Barry Bonds – No brainer, only some guys named Babe Ruth and Cy Young have higher career WAR’s than Bonds
Roger Clemens – Easily the most dominating pitcher of the last 40 years, which is saying a lot.
Craig Biggio – He was overshadowed by the gaudy power numbers of his era, but this is a guy who hit, took walks, stole bases and won 4 Gold Gloves as a second baseman. Heck, he even switched to the outfield when the team asked him to. Basically he was the 1990’s version of Robin Yount.
Mike Piazza – Arguably the best hitting catcher in MLB history. Not bad for a guy who was drafted in the 62nd round of the draft as a favor by Tommy LaSorda to Piazza’s father.
Curt Schilling – Forget the bloody sock in 2004. Schilling was among the best in baseball for the better part of a decade, should have won at least one Cy Young award and is probably the best post season pitcher in the 2000’s and maybe the last 50 years.

The Returning Guys
Jeff Bagwell – He needs to be in. The guy could hit and run and field and, unfortunately, got lost in the shuffle by playing his entire career in Houston.
Alan Trammell – Larkin is in, Trammell was better.
Rafael Palmiero – Do I need to say anything more than 500 HR and 3000 hits?
Tim Raines – I think last year was “The Rock’s” last, best chance. The ballot is too crowded and I don’t think he has enough support.
Mark McGwire – The guy was a masher but he was the modern version of Ralph Kiner.

Sadly, I think that Jack Morris will get in this season, despite being less than qualified and not even being better than another guy who should not be anywhere close to getting elected – David Wells. Don’t believe me, look it up. Wells and Morris had very similar regular season numbers and Wells was a better post season pitcher than Morris.

My prediction for election – Morris is the only guy who gets in because the writers are idiots and won’t vote for anyone they suspect might have been involved with steroids, even without proof.

Ichiro and His 2012 Batting Average

By Blaidd Drwg

Ichiro saluting Coltrane on his nearly accurate 2012 BA prediction.

Back before the season started at a get together we had, there was a discussion on Ichiro. Without much thought, a number of us placed a prediction on what we thought his batting average would be at the end of the season. We put nothing on the bet and I hadn’t really thought about posting this until I found the paper the other day that we put our predictions on. So here is what we originally guessed:

Coltrane – .282
Annie S. – .292
Blaidd Drwg – .293
Mrs. Iron Chef Leftovers – .275
PW – .352

Thanks to a great last couple of months at the end of the season when he got traded to the Yankees, Ichiro managed to post a .283 average for the season, making Coltrane the winner of absolutely nothing other than recognition in this blog (like that is worth anything).

The Unbareable Lightness of Being

By Blaidd Drwg

…Chone Figgins. One of the worst free agenst signings in Mariners history. He basically became completely useless (although you can argue he was already there) on Tuesday when this came across the wire:

Looking to add depth to the infield, the Seattle Mariners have acquired versatile Robert Andino from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for reserve outfielder Trayvon Robinson.

Robert Andino is basically Chone Figgins with slightly more power and slightly less ability to get on base, oh, and Andino makes about 1/3 of what Figgins does. That move prompted this one on Wednesday:

Designated OF Scott Cousins and INF Chone Figgins for assignment.

Before you get too excited about effectively swapping Andino for Figgins, keep this in mind – Andino somehow managed to play in 127 games last season for Baltimore and managed an incredible .588 OPS, which is only slightly better than what Figgins posted last year.

It actually makes me wonder how the Orioles were that successful with putting Andino out there as much as they did. Hopefully Wedge does not fall in love with him and feels the need to use him even semi-regularly.