Fenway Scalpers Crying Poverty

By Blaidd Drwg

The Boston Globe printed an article about how the scalpers at Fenway Park are not making money on reselling Red Sox tickets this season. Maybe I am being insensitive, but am I supposed to feel sorry for these guys?

One of my favorite parts of this article:

Rich wistfully talks about the pre-championship Red Sox and laments the way things are now. Back then, a $50 ticket went for $200, easy, he says. Now there are days where he struggles to get 50 percent above face value.

OK, I am sorry but these guys are still gouging the hell out of the ticket prices. How bad are things for the scalpers? Here you go:

Rich claims he made about $100,000 in his first year re-selling tickets to NASCAR events and Sox games. This year, though, he says he’ll be lucky to bring in one-third of that.

WTF, this guy is making $30,000 this year for a couple hours of work a day, 82 days a year. I don’t feel sorry for them.

These guys are the scum of the earth. They are shady, arrogant and really not bright. They would rather not sell a ticket than sell a ticket for less than they want, even after the game has started.

Another gem:

Now, it’s the middle of the first inning, and he’s one of several sellers occupying the corner off Brookline Ave. The game has started but his price remains fixed. His field box seats, with a face value of $52 apiece, are going for $150.

Like many of his colleagues, he is having trouble moving the seats. To a casual onlooker, the solution seems simple. Drop the price. But when the idea is brought up, the man in the gray cotton T-shirt quickly shoots it down.

“Let me ask you something,’’ he says. “If you owned a store, and you sold milk, and all your milk was about to go bad, and everyone held out until the last minute to buy your milk, and you dropped the price, what would happen?’’

He doesn’t wait for an answer. He explains that no one would be willing to buy milk at full price. The integrity of the product would be compromised.

Integrity of the product? Please. These guys are selling baseball tickets, not life saving medicine. Actually, if I knew a product was going to go stale and I was faced with selling at a loss or not selling at all, I am going to sell at a loss (and have done that with tickets – I figure $20 for a $40 ticket is better than $0 for a $40 ticket I can’t use). This guy has probably never seen fresh food in his life – stores regularly discount products that are about to expire or go bad and yet, people still buy the regularly priced product too.

My scalper story – back in 2004 before the Sox won the World Series, I tried to go to a game at Fenway with a friend of mine. We did not have tickets and it was a July game against the Rangers with Tim Wakefield pitching. The cheapest tickets I could get from a scalper were bleachers (which I believe were $20 face value) for $100 EACH. This was before the game, so we decided to go to a bar, have a few drinks and come back after the game started. We came back to where the scalpers were hanging out, it was the 3^rd inning and the Sox were down 3-0. The ticket prices had barely moved – including the moron who wanted $100 each for bleacher tickets. I offered $100 for any pair of tickets that any of the scalpers were willing to sell and got no takers, so we went back to the bar. I never understood that – it is not like there are that many people who are willing to pay that kind of money to see 6 innings of a baseball game anyway. I refuse to ever buy or sell a ticket from a Fenway scalper because of that.

The Box Score

By Blaidd Drwg

The box score is almost as old as the game of baseball. Every morning, millions of people get up and hop onto any number of sites and look at one to see how their favorite team, favorite player or fantasy baseball team did.

I happened to be scanning ESPN.com this morning and came across this article by Tim Kurkjian. I am not a big fan of Kurkjian, but I have to appreciate the uber-geekyness of clipping box scores for 20 years. I think you would be hard pressed to find a baseball fan over the age of 30 who did not do this at some point in their lives. This article brought back some memories for me. I remember vividly scanning the box scores during mornings in the summer in the 1980’s looking to see the results of my beloved Cubbies and Red Sox, wondering if Leon Durham jacked a homer or Wade Boggs went 3 for 4 the previous night. I also remember the frustration of finding that there was no score available for games on the west coast (I was living in NJ at the time) and having to wait for the NEXT DAY to find out the results of a game. Boy, have we come a long way – I can now watch every game that is taking place, live from the comfort of my living room and I can check a box score instantaneously. A couple of weeks ago, I actually looked at a box score in a paper – it was the first time I had done that since I can’t remember.

41NPyTZX-sL._SL500_AA300_ — Greg Maddux, Vintage 1987

I am also guilty of clipping box scores myself. Somewhere there exists a notebook with just about every box score for the Cubs and Red Sox from 1985 – 1988. I still remember the frustration of the Cubs every 5 days trucking out a lanky 21 year old right-hander in 1987 because he kept getting pounded every time he pitched. He ended up 6-14 with an ERA of 5.61 that season which, considering how much less offense there was in 1987 than today, and despite rumors of a juiced ball, was terrible. That pitcher – Greg Maddux.

Wakamatsu

By Blaidd Drwg

By now, you have heard that Don Wakamatsu has been fired. According to a few things that I have read, one of the reasons for his firing was that he lost control of the clubhouse because he was believed by Griffey to be the leak in the entire Griffey/Napgate incident. He also supposedly pressured Griffey into retiring.

If that is true:
1) I have a new level of respect for Wak for showing just how much of a prima donna Griffey is.
2) I have no respect for the Mariners organization for backing a player over the manager, especially since it was painfully obvious to everyone that Griffey was done.

So much for stocking the clubhouse full of “character” guys.

The Chorus of the Obese

by Coltrane

Or: “The Fat Ladies Are Singing.”

The M’s season is over. That’s not breaking news. When the Mariners are in contention there’s one website that I check regularly — coolstandings.com.

Coolstandings uses two methods to predict each team’s odds to make the playoffs. The first method creates the “smart” standings, using runs scored, runs allowed, and strength of opposition. Their other method produces the “dumb” standings. The “dumb” standings assume that every team is fundamentally a .500 team for the rest of the season. The Coolstandings FAQ page is here.

I prefer the “smart” standings. I think they’re more “real”, and give better results.

The NL West has a good race going on. Here are Coolstandings current odds for each of those teams:

NL West	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV%	WC%	POFF%
San Diego	64	46	.582	–	480	382	90	72	60.0	14.2	74.2
San Francisco	63	49	.563	2	488	405	88	74	30.3	22.9	53.2
Colorado	58	53	.523	6.5	537	496	83.5	78.5	5.5	6.3	11.8
Los Angeles	58	54	.518	7	489	481	83	79	4.2	5.2	9.5
Arizona	43	69	.384	22	505	622	68	94	.0	.0	.0

Thats’s Team, Wins, Losses, Winning Percentage, Games Back, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Expected Wins, Expected Losses, “DIV%” is the odds of winning the division, “WC%” is odds of getting the Wildcard, and “POFF%” is the odds for the team to make the playoffs either way. As you can see, San Diego and San Francisco are neck and neck, but they both have a good chance to make the playoffs regardless.

I’m writing this post because every time the Mariners are 8-10 games back in July there will inevitably be a caller on the radio, or a guy at the bar, who says “Yeah, but 1995! Blah, blah, blah!” (The bold emphasis on “Blah, blah, blah!” is mine, because it’s all I hear when people talk about 1995.)

1995 was great. It probably saved baseball in Seattle. But it created the most delusional bunch of baseball fans I’ve ever been around. It ultimately makes it more challenging to manage the M’s organization when “no lead is insurmountable.” The specter of 1995 pressures the front office to consider trading to improve the team this year, when they should be building for the future.

Delusional fans are utimately bad for competitive baseball in Seattle. Coolstandings is a part of the cure. Please help spread the cure around.

Joe Montana — Wha’ Happen’???

by Coltrane

[The setup] A shoe commercial featuring Joe Montana’s voice, shown between The Office and a promotion for the latest teen “dance” movie — Step Up 3, in 3D:

[Voiceover with large-font text, images of happy, active people striding with purpose against a white backdrop]

“I’m Joe Montana, and I spent 16 years playing football… and Shape-Ups have improved my strength and posture.”

[signed] Joe Montana, Football Hall of Fame. Paid Endorser.

[end commercial]

…Wow… I guess he’s not a God anymore.

——

Did you know Montana met his (stunning, at the time struggling blond actress) wife doing a commercial for Schick razors? The ad dates to when he was a Super Bowl Champion quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. The set featured a western/cowboy theme. His future wife was the woman, who, like at the end of every razor commercial, strokes his face and looks turned on.

It’s been a while.

——-

In a related sidenote: Re — Movies:

3D movies are a new thing and people are going to the theatre just to see the technology. The same thing happened when sound was added to movies. I wonder if we’re now witnessing the modern equivalent of the beginning of “talkies” — history may be echoing itself now with the introduction of 3D. I’m guessing the “extravaganza” element and general “lack of content” parallel between the two eras isn’t a coincidence either.

Montana — Joe at his peak, with a derivative nickname.

TTO or Three True Outcomes

By Blaidd Drwg

I mentioned TTO the other day in my Brandon Wood post. TTO stands for Three True Outcomes – the only 3 things that a batter (or a pitcher) has completed control over when he is at the plate (or on the mound): Home Runs, Strike Outs and Walks. Basically the formula is (HR + BB + K) / PA; the higher the percentage, the better. These guys tend to hit a bunch of HR, are among the league leaders in walks, strike out by the bucket load and don’t do much else.

Everything else a batter does when he puts a ball in play has a certain element of luck attached to it – a fielder misplays the ball, doesn’t quite get to it, runner in motion opens up a hole, etc. (you get the idea). Yes, a player can hit an inside the park HR, but the guys who get brought up when you talk about TTO are big burly monster sluggers who probably could only end up with an inside the park HR if the other team decided to leave the field when he was running the bases.

Why the post about TTO? Well, I have a soft spot in my heart for the sluggardly sluggers that tend to populate this list. The current poster children for the classic TTO player are: Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds and, my personal favorite Adam Dunn.

More after the jump…

Continue reading “TTO or Three True Outcomes” →

What Happened to “The Hyphen”

By Blaidd Drwg

After another complete disaster on the mound, you really need to wonder what the heck the Mariners are doing trucking Ryan Rowland-Smith out there every 5 days. His record stands at 1-10 with a stellar 6.97 ERA. At this point, I think it is time to move “The Hyphen” to the pen or ship him down to Tacoma and give someone else a shot – my vote, Chris Seddon.

So what has happened to RRS? He has been good for the last couple of seasons and now he can’t get anyone out. I am guessing that he has some sort of an undiagnosed injury that is causing his issues, but we can’t know for sure. The one thing I can tell you is there are some very disturbing trends. Here are his stats from the last 3 seasons as a starter:

	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	BAbip	BB/9	SO/9	HR/9
2008	12	72.0	10	27	38	3.50	1.389	.272	3.4	4.8	1.2
2009	15	96.1	9	27	52	3.74	1.183	.253	2.5	4.9	0.8
2010	19	96.1	23	40	38	7.10	1.723	.302	3.7	3.6	2.1

Note – please see the glossary for an explanation of BAbip, and the /9 stats.

BAbip – RRS was somewhat lucky in both 2008 and 2009 – he had an abnormally low BAbip (most pitchers, even great ones are somewhere around .285 – .290 most seasons), especially in 2009. It is probably partially attributed to the great Mariners defense, partially to Safeco Field (his career split difference is somewhere around .035), partially to his drop in walk rate (less guys on base means you can throw more pitches on the fringe of the zone and those tend to make for more outs) and partially to luck. His 2010 number is a little higher than average, but not completely out of line and probably closer to what you would actually expect from any pitcher. The jump from 2009 to 2010 explains some of change in his performance, but not most of it.

HR Allowed – In his 168 innings in 2008 and 2009, RRS allowed 19 home runs, a pretty run of the mill number. In 96 innings this year he has allowed a league leading 23 (!). There is one of the primary reasons that he has had issues. When the ball leaves the yard that often, you really won’t be successful. That is a huge jump for a guy who historically does not give up many HRs and it has been a real problem on the road. He has given up 5 HR in 47.1 IP at Safeco and 18 HR allowed in 51 innings on the road. This is the primary reason I think that he might be hurt. Of course, it could also be a mechanical issue on his part too.

Strikeout Rate – Let’s face it, you would expect a guy who is 6’3” and 230 Lbs. to actually throw hard and strike out batters at a minimum a league average pace (about 6 K’s per 9 innings). Not RRS. Most guys don’t last long when the K rate is down around 5 per 9 innings and you really have a short lifespan when your rate drops below 4. The big drop on an already low rate is another indicator he might be hurt. The thing is, it isn’t like he can’t be a power pitcher – he has a career 8.6 K/9 in 87 innings as a reliever. The problem is that most of those innings came before he got hurt last season. I say, put him back in relief and let him throw hard for an inning instead of trying to pace himself.

Maybe the Mariners are trying to let RRS work out some mechanical issue with the big club and maybe they are trying to showcase him for a trade (that isn’t really working if it is the case). Either way, it is time to pull the plug on him in the starting rotation. Don’t be surprised if RRS ends up on the DL sometime before his next start and Luke French takes his place in the rotation.

Update – I wrote this the morning of 7/28. Shortly thereafter, the Mariners placed RRS on the 15-Day DL and called up Luke French. Shocking.

Athlete in Retrospect — Vern Stephens

by Coltrane

100th post. It could be about anything! I was strongly considering yet another Howard Schultz rant, but we’ll save that for another day.

Boycott Starbucks! Howard Schultz is a traitor to the community that made him filthy stinkin’ rich! He’s a back-stabbing…backstabber!

There. I got it out of my system.

Onto the subject of the post — Vern Stephens.

Stephens came up as a 20 year-old in 1941 with the St. Louis Browns. He avoided service in the war due to bad knees, instead working at a shipyard when he wasn’t playing baseball. In the winter of 1947 he was traded to the Red Sox. By 1949 he was in his prime, as a 28 year-old playing shortstop and hitting the cover off of the ball. The Red Sox that year went 96-58, finishing 2nd in the American League, one game behind the Yankees. Here’s his age 28 season as compared to the age 28 seasons of some other well-known-and-fairly-recent shortstops:

Age 28 Year	Average	HR	RBI	OPS+
Vern Stephens	.290	39	159	138
Barry Larkin	.304	12	78	132
Alex Rodriguez	.286	36	106	131

Miguel Tejada	.308	34	131	128
Nomar Garciaparra	.310	24	120	127
Alan Trammel	.277	21	75	120

Derek Jeter	.297	18	75	111
Cal Ripken	.257	21	93	105

39 HR! 159 RBI! (And yeah, RBI is a flawed stat, but 159 RBI is a huge total.)

In 1949 he totalled 8.2 WAR — a figure Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols would be happy with. Stephens totalled 53.7 WAR for his career. By comparison, Bill Buckner (the subject of the last Athlete Restrospective) totalled 24.6, and Buckner was a really good player who played seven more seasons than Stephens. (Stephens’ knees quit on him. His last good, healthy year was his age 29 season in 1950.)

Why am I so hooked on Vern Stephens? I really have no idea. He hit for average, he hit for power, and he did it while playing shortstop. He played with Ted Williams and was a comparable hitter. I probably learned about him in 1985 from reading the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, so in my consciousness he predates A-Rod and Jeter and the rest. I didn’t see a picture of him until maybe 15-20 years later, which added to the intrigue. For a while he was one of the all-time greats, and nobody really remembers him any more.

That’s kind of what this series of posts are about.

Things I Have Forgotten

By Blaidd Drwg

The only pitcher to record a save without throwing a pitch – Mitch Williams with this gem in 1989. He picked off Carmelo Martinez before throwing a pitch to a batter.

Wild Thing, I think I (used to) love you, but you gave me an ulcer watching you pitch.

Next up – post number 100. I will leave that honor to Coltrane.

Athlete Retrospective — or, Being Bill Buckner

by Coltrane

This is the first in what I expect to be a series of posts, featuring former athletes that for one reason or another captured my attention and never really went away.

—

Bill Buckner is a player who always gets talked about when the Red Sox are in town. He’s well-known, but it occurred to me that I didn’t really know how valuable he was over the course of his career. I decided it would be fun to do a little digging…

Exhibit One–

Bill Buckner played four decades in the major leagues, from 1969 (one AB) up through his age 40 season in 1990. When he was young he played for the Dodgers, in mid-career the Cubs, and in the twilight of his career he played for the Red Sox (and the Royals and the Angels.) He played 22 years in total, mixing some big seasons in with years that were less than great.

Buckner totalled 24.6 career WAR, good for 735th all-time among position players. As the chart illustrates, he would have had a great career, rather than a really good one — had his production just resembled a bell curve a little more than it did.

Exhibit Two– Hitters that rank just ahead of Buckner on the Career WAR list:

Mike Bordick

billbuckner1 — The future was wide open..

Irish Meusel
Sammy Strang
Johnny Kling
Charlie Hollocher
Gus Suhr
Joe Cunningham
Ed Charles
Jeff Conine
Bill Buckner

Bordick, Conine, and Buckner were all “good” players for a long time. Catcher Johnny Kling had a more sustained peak but shorter career. Kling played from 1900 to 1913, his good years coming with the Cubs.

Exhibit Three– The 10 most similar hitters to Buckner (using career totals) from Baseball-Reference.com:

1. Mickey Vernon (876)

2. Al Oliver (866)

3. Steve Garvey (855)

4. Mark Grace (853)

5. Willie Davis (850)

6. B.J. Surhoff (839)

7. Buddy Bell (838)

8. Vada Pinson (833)

9. Jose Cruz (828)

10. Julio Franco (826)

This one is fun. I had guessed Steve Garvey and Mark Grace would be comps — they shared many traits with Buckner: marginal speed, middling power, and no patience at the plate. Buckner’s career highs were 18 HRs and 39 walks. He’d usually hit around .300, finishing his career with a .289/.329/.408 slash line, 174 career HR. Buckner could run when he was young, topping out at 32 stolen bases. As he got older his legs abandoned him.

Interestingly, Buckner and Garvey both had their fist cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 1969. They remained teammates through the 1976 season. Buckner was traded to the Cubs in the winter of 1977, along with Jeff Albert and Ivan De Jesus. In return the Cubs sent back Mike Garman and Rick Monday.

Exhibit Four– Hall of Fame Voting:

Buckner became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 1996. In order to remain on the ballot a player must receive at least 5% of the vote. The results:

Finish	Name	Year on Ballot	Votes	Percent
22	Fred Lynn	1st	26	5.50%
23	Bobby Bonds	10th	24	5.10%
24	Rusty Staub	6th	24	5.10%
25	Keith Hernandez	1st	24	5.10%
26	Frank White	1st	18	3.80%
27	Dan Quisenberry	1st	18	3.80%
28	Bill Buckner	1st	10	2.10%
29	Jerry Reuss	1st	2	0.40%
30	John Tudor	1st	2	0.40%
31	Chet Lemon	1st	1	0.20%
32	Jeffrey Leonard	1st	0	0.00%
33	Johnny Ray	1st	0	0.00%
34	Claudell Washington	1st	0	0.00%
35	Bob Knepper	1st	0	0.00%

There’s a first baseman who was a contemporary of Buckner’s on the list — “I’m Keith Hernandez“. (Link is to the Youtube “JFK” Seinfeld episode.) It’s an interesting peer group. Seattle Mariners fans will remember the revolving door in LF, starring such players as Jeffrey Leonard.

Frank White really got the shaft in the voting that year.

Other Bill Buckner facts:

Buckner won the batting championship while playing for the Cubs in 1981. He led the league in doubles twice.

Buckner retired with 2715 hits. He had nearly as many career walks (450), as strikeouts (453.) These are both incredibly low totals for a 22-year career.

He was once traded for Mike Brumley and Dennis Eckersley.

He made one All-Star team.

In April 2008 Buckner threw out the first pitch in Fenway park.

mlb_a_mookbuckner_275 — Mookie Wilson and Bill Buckner, 2006

I believe the picture above was taken at a sports memorabilia show — Buckner and Mookie Wilson were signing pictures together at the event. Beats working I guess.