The Chorus of the Obese

by Coltrane

Or:  “The Fat Ladies Are Singing.”

The M’s season is over.  That’s not breaking news.  When the Mariners are in contention there’s one website that I check regularly — coolstandings.com.

Coolstandings uses two methods to predict each team’s odds to make the playoffs.  The first method creates the “smart” standings, using runs scored, runs allowed, and strength of opposition.  Their other method produces the “dumb” standings.  The “dumb” standings assume that every team is fundamentally a .500 team for the rest of the season.   The Coolstandings FAQ page is here. 

I prefer the “smart” standings.   I think they’re more “real”, and give better results.

The NL West has a good race going on.  Here are Coolstandings current odds for each of those teams:

Thats’s Team, Wins, Losses, Winning Percentage, Games Back, Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, Expected Wins, Expected Losses, “DIV%” is the odds of winning the division, “WC%” is odds of getting the Wildcard, and “POFF%” is the odds for the team to make the playoffs either way.  As you can see, San Diego and San Francisco are neck and neck, but they both have a good chance to make the playoffs regardless.

I’m writing this post because every time the Mariners are 8-10 games back in July there will inevitably be a caller on the radio, or a guy at the bar, who says “Yeah, but 1995!  Blah, blah, blah!”  (The bold emphasis on “Blah, blah, blah!” is mine, because it’s all I hear when people talk about 1995.)

1995 was great.  It probably saved baseball in Seattle.  But it created the most delusional bunch of baseball fans I’ve ever been around.  It ultimately makes it more challenging to manage the M’s organization when “no lead is insurmountable.”  The specter of 1995 pressures the front office to consider trading to improve the team this year, when they should be building for the future. 

Delusional fans are utimately bad for competitive baseball in Seattle.  Coolstandings is a part of the cure.  Please help spread the cure around.