Clubhouse Confidential – What?

by A.J. Coltrane

I tuned into the last 20 minutes of Clubhouse Confidential today. (Not a show I was familiar with.) I was waiting for the Cotton Bowl to start, paged around the usual sports channels, and saw this episode description: “Statistics-based discussions of Major League Baseball news and rumors, with expert guests.”

Now, that’s right up my alley. What did I get?

Bob_Horner — Bob Horner, a guy who could hit the cover off of the ball, and a teammate of Dale Murphy. I remember him hitting three home runs in a game, but I don't remember the porn mustache.

1st segment: Seven minutes of the 3 panelists arguing about whether players suspected and/or proven of having done steroids should be eligible for the Hall Of Fame.

2nd segment: A six-minute talk with the president of the baseball Hall Of Fame, Jeff Idelson, answering questions about the Hall’s stance on including players linked to steroids, and other related topics.

3rd segment: A short look at the panelists’ HoF ballots, including Jon Heyman’s contrarian picks of Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Bernie Williams and Lee Smith get brief mentions. Still no real stats to speak of in this segment, just one infographic tacked under a Mattingly picture to reference Mattingly’s 5-year OPS+ peak.

Huh? That’s not exactly Fangraphs, USSM, or Lookout Landing. The steroid thing has already been rehashed about 10,000,000 times. The show description implied some sabermetric-oriented stuff, and the show was basically Pardon The Interruption.

That was dreck. Maybe I got them on a bad day(?)

Is Brees/Brady the new Elway/Marino Debate?

By Blaidd Drwg

Raise your hand if you would ever thought that the first quarterback to break Dan Marino’s single season yards record would be Drew Brees and not Tom Brady (Brady is about 200 yards from passing Marino also). Brady gets all the press because of the “pass always” offense the Pats run, but it is the high-octane offense in New Orleans that should probably be getting more attention. Heck, you hear about Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski all the time – name any receiver on the Saints (I had to look them up).

The Saints are now 12-3, have scored 505 points (9 less than the Packers and 40 more than the Patriots) and unlike the Pats, have the best pass offense in the league and the 9th best run offense (the Pats are 19th). That is not really the point of this post.

The point of this post is that, to me at least, it seems like Brees/Brady could be the new Marino/Elway argument on who was better. From a statistical standpoint, they two are pretty close:

	GP	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
Brees	153	40,353	276	145	93.6
Brady	160	39,641	297	114	96.3

The real edge that Brady has over Brees is Super Bowl wins – Brady has 4 and Brees 1. In the Marino/Elway battle, Elway had 2 and Marino failed to win the Super Bowl in his only appearance.

I know that the traditional who’s better argument in this century has been Manning/Brady, but I really do think that it should really be Brees/Brady.

Football this Holiday Season

By Blaidd Drwg

I have already expressed my righteous indignation over the entire BCS system here, and I read something recently in the Seattle Weekly about the entire bowl system that leads me to believe that it makes money for the people running the bowl and screws the schools over.

To make matters worse, this season, the #7 team in the country, Boise State, didn’t get to go to a BCS bowl because they are not in an AQ conference and did not win their conference title. Fine, except that #13 Michigan, a school with 2 losses (more than Boise), who didn’t win their conference, didn’t play in their conference championship game and didn’t even win their division within their conference, gets to go to a BCS bowl. On what planet does that make sense?

Boise State’s consolation prize, a 6-6 Arizona State team in the Las Vegas Bowl. I watched about 2 minutes of the game and it was obvious that Boise was making a statement that they were unhappy about their bowl placement – they essentially ran the Sun Devils out of the building. It would have been much uglier for Arizona St. if it weren’t for the Boise turnovers that did what the Sun Devil defense couldn’t – keep the Broncos offense out of the end zone.

Normally I love watching college football and the bowl games at the end of the season. Based on the stupidity of the system, I think I am going to pass this year. Luckily, thanks to the way the calendar falls, we have NFL games on Christmas and New Year’s weekends this year. I would much rather watch the riveting Colts-Jags game on New Year’s Day than any of the bowl games that are being played.

When to use the term “Hall of Famer”

By Blaidd Drwg

I see a headline on ESPN.com today that says “Hall of Famer Conlin accused of molestation”. It was a sad story about famed Philadelphia sports writer Bill Conlin being accused of molesting a couple of kids in the 1970’s. My problem is with the headline – winning the Spink Award or the Frick Award or the Buck O’Neil Award (o.k. maybe the O’Neil winners should be called Hall of Famers as the award has had 2 winners, one of which is they guy who the award is named after and SHOULD be in the real hall) does not make you a Hall of Famer. Yes, they get to make a pretty speech during the induction ceremony, but they aren’t being inducted into the Hall of Fame. The Baseball Hall of Fame website does not list winners of these awards in its Hall Of Famers section and they don’t have plaques in the Hall of Fame. Contrary to popular belief, there is no “Broadcasters Wing” of the Hall of Fame. The award winners for the Frick and Spink awards have a display in the section of the museum devoted to baseball in the media in a gallery called “Scribes and Mikemen.”

To the media – PLEASE STOP CALLING WINNERS OF THE FRICK AND SPINK AWARD WINNERS HALL OF FAMERS! When you wrongfully call someone as perverted as Conlin a Hall of Famer, you are doing a disservice to the memory of all of the cheats, liars, racists, drug addicts, alcoholics and all-around assholes that are currently inducted into the actual Hall of Fame (not to mention the large number of guys who were inducted that were actually nice guys).

Post Script – After writing this and before posting it, ESPN changed the title to “Veteran writer…” from “Hall of Famer…” What do you want to bet ESPN got a nastygram from the Baseball Hall of Fame about the misuse of the term Hall of Famer.

Tony Wroten

by A.J. Coltrane

“Tony Wroten” refers to Husky freshman guard Tony Wroten. He was a highly rated recruit, and some people are very high on him so far [ESPN Insider Link]:

A number of NBA scouts and GMs now feel like Washington’s Tony Wroten(Rank: 19) might be the best NBA point guard prospect in college basketball…

and

..But Wroten is the real deal. He’s tall, has eyes in the back of his head, can get to the basket at will and, when he’s focused, he can take over a game. His second-half performance against Duke on Saturday was, at times, special. He’s still wild and tries to do too much, but it’s rare to find a player with his size doing the things he does. Said one top NBA scout, “He’s the second coming of Gary Payton.”

Emphasis mine.

The last sentence is what really got my attention.. I watched the Duke and Missouri games, and I know Wroten came in highly regarded, but still, my eyes weren’t telling me THAT. He seems like a nice young guard who’s still figuring it out. I haven’t seen “future Hall of Famer”.

Think about what Payton was — a great defensive player with good size and court vision. He was also a marginal shooter coming out of college and his shot never really developed much beyond “solid”.

The Gary Payton comment prompted me to look around a little further, and here’s a second opinion by David Thorpe (also Insider), following the Missouri/UW game:

Wroten looked for the spectacular play almost every possession rather than the easy one…

He has a terrific feel for slithering to the rim for buckets. Wroten has no idea how to play basketball, but has a great idea how to score and see the floor. Once he learns to read and think the game, his talent can grow to enormous heights…

He was not inclined to do much on defense in this game and missed some opportunities to get back on defense. I would have liked to see him handle that better…

However, he is a poor free throw shooter thanks to rushing his way through the shot as if a defender is about to come guard him.

Does that sound like Gary Payton? I’d point the phrases “no idea how to play basketball” and “not inclined to do much on defense”… One thing about Gary is that he worked hard, all the time, especially on defense… He was also really savvy and had a high basketball IQ.

Here’s the ESPN draft report card:

Projection	Late First Round Pick
Positives	Powerful combo guard Excellent court vision Can be a spectacular passer Powerful finisher at the basket
Negatives	Needs to improve his jump shot Can be reckless at times Questionable shot selection Lacks elite athleticism or explosiveness

Wroten is even bigger than Payton was — Wroten is listed at 6’5″, 205 lbs. If he can get rid of the “reckless” then maybe he’s a point guard at the NBA level, otherwise he’ll be a tweener combo guard.

Which is useful, but it’s not Gary Payton.

At the college level though.. he could be *very* effective.

Assorted Sports Thoughts

by A.J. Coltrane

Mike Leach to the Cougars:

To quote Leach – “You can win here and win big, I believe.”

Washington State football just got a lot more entertaining — I may actually make a point to watch a game or two next year. WSU will throw the ball all over the place, and historically that’s what they’ve done when they’ve been good. At the very least they’ll be fun to watch.

The Sounders get a new keeper:

The Sounders signed 6’5″ Austrian keeper Michael Gspurning. From the Seattle Times: “Gspurning’s size lends to a more aggressive approach in coming out to defend crosses, and he is also more comfortable having balls played back to him and using his feet”

The News Tribune has more information about Gspurning, including this YouTube clip of five of his saves:

I’m predisposed to like tall keepers — Kasey Keller would have had a hard time getting to Save #3 on the video, though Keller likely would have been playing another step or two to his left to cover that angle and would have stopped it anyway.

Gspuring is a 30 year-old veteran keeper. I have high hopes the Sounders won’t miss a beat.

Finally, the NBA is dead to me, but:

The Miami Heat signed Shane Battier. I think this is about as important as any signing in the league this year — Battier is absolutely the perfect fit to go with Wade and Lebron. Battier doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be productive, he’s a very good perimeter defender, he’s a good rebounder, a good passer, and he’s a good 3-point shooter. He may wind up being more valuable to the Heat than Chris Bosh. Really, the Heat are the “Big 2 +1” anyway, not a “Big 3”. As Battier approaches the late phase of his career he could basically be Robert Horry all over again. Mike Bibby just signed somewhere else, and if the Heat can get anything besides a corpse to play the point then they have to be heavy favorites to win it all this year. They don’t even need a traditional point guard, it could be a Steve Kerr equivalent and they’d be fine. (Any of the triangle offense non-traditional point guards would work — Kerr, Paxson, Harper, or Fisher. They just need long-range shooting and (ideally) someone to get in the way of quick little guards.)

Bleh.

The 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

By Blaidd Drwg

The 2012 HOF ballot has been released. Here is the list of player for your review:

Jeff Bagwell
Jeromy Burnitz
Vinny Castilla
Juan Gonzalez
Brian Jordan
Barry Larkin
Javy Lopez
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Bill Mueller
Terry Mulholland
Dale Murphy
Phil Nevin
Rafael Palmeiro
Brad Radke
Tim Raines
Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams
Tony Womack
Eric Young

If I had a vote, it would be Bagwell, McGwire, Palmeiro, Raines, Trammell and Walker. I am not sure any of these guys will get in, but considering the talent that is going to be on the 2013-2017 ballots, this might be the last chance for Larkin, Edgar, Morris, Murphy, Raines, Smith and Trammell to build any real momentum for getting in. Heck, I am pretty sure that if these guys don’t get in on this ballot, they won’t get elected by the BBWAA. Your thoughts? Who gets your vote?

The BCS Needs To Go

By Blaidd Drwg

The process is entirely to skewed to hand out bids to the “power” conferences and really goes out of its way to prevent deserving teams from getting into the big bowls in favor of lesser teams from the big conferences. There are 10 spots in BCS bowls – numbers 1 and 2 in the rankings play in the national championship game and there are automatic bids for the Big East, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC and Pac 12 conferences. There are also 2 at-large bids, only one of which goes to a non-AQ conference if it is ranked in the top 10. The only up sides is that no conference can have more than 2 BCS teams, unless the conference winner is not ranked #1 or #2 and the top 2 teams are also from the same conference.

Here is how bad it looks right now:
There are 2 non-automatic qualifier schools currently ranked in the top 10 of the BCS standings – Houston at number 6 , and one of 2 undefeated teams left in college football, and Boise State, who’s only loss this season is by 1 point to the 18th ranked TCU Horned Frogs. Both teams have one game left against tough opponents and if they both win, only one of these teams is going to make it to a BCS bowl game. The other gets to go to a second tier bowl.

The Big East does not have a team currently ranked in the top 25, yet will be sending a team to a BCS bowl. The conference winner has the potential of being the 7-5 Louisville Cardinals, who are in 1st place and their season is done, and could end up there depending on what the teams with remaining games do this weekend.

Thanks to USC being ineligible for post-season play, the inaugural PAC 12 conference championship features the 10-2 Oregon Ducks vs. the 6-6 UCLA Bruins. If somehow UCLA pulls off the upset, you will have a 7-6 team from the PAC 12 in a BCS game.

Right now, the at-large bids are predicted to be Houston and Michigan. Michigan, while 10-2, is currently ranked 16th and didn’t even make it to its conference championship game. How does that make sense?

It gets even stranger with the top 2 teams in the country. Alabama is currently #2 and is done with its season. Its only loss was to #1 Auburn, but they finished second in their division and are not playing in their conference championship game. It is unlikely that Alabama will move from the #2 spot after the games this weekend. Auburn, currently ranked #1, plays #12 Georgia in the SEC championship game this weekend. If Georgia wins, they get a BCS automatic birth. The consensus is that if Auburn loses, they would not drop lower than #2, meaning Alabama moves up to #1 (most likely). This sets up a national championship game where neither of the teams involved won their conference.

I don’t care if they are the 2 best teams in the country. If college football wants to have this stupid setup for a championship and all of these mega conferences with conference championship games, teams should be excluded from playing in the national championship games if they can’t win their conference.

Average Would Be Nice

by A.J. Coltrane

	Offense	Defense
Mariners (runs)	30th of 30	15th of 30
Seahawks (points)	26th of 32	15th of 32
Seahawks (yards)	28th of 32	11th of 32

Seahawks (rushing)	27th	8th
Seahawks (passing)	25th	15th

(Stats current as of November 26 pm.)

The first Seattle team to “win” will be the team that can get to at least average on offense. I think both teams are at least two years away from that happening.

Albert Pujols and the 2011 World Series

By Blaidd Drwg

Here is your weird World Series stat of the day:

Albert Pujols is hitting .278 in the 2011 World Series with an OPS north of 1.200.

Pujols had 5 hits and 3 home runs in game 3.

In the other 4 games in the series, he is 0 for 12 with 4 intentional walks, yet has only managed to strike out once.

A perfect example of why sample size matters.