The Bracket Of Peril – 2015 Edition

by A.J. Coltrane

The Bracket Of Peril is back!

Link here.

The group name is Cheap Seat Eats. Password is TakeMeOut.

They made it easier to join this year. If you played in the group last year you can simply select “Rejoin Group”, and away you go. Up to three entries per person. Have some fun with it and make a non-Kentucky bracket too!

As usual, the winner gets a whole bunch of nothing!

Join soon, the tournament starts Thursday, with the play-in games on Tuesday.

The Pass-Catching Jimmy Graham

by A.J. Coltrane

You may have heard that the Seahawks traded for “Pro Bowl TE Jimmy Graham”. What that means is that during a game this fall you’ll hear an announcer say something like “Last season Jimmy Graham was 2nd among Tight Ends in receiving yards.”

Categorically ignore those statements. Jimmy Graham isn’t really a Tight End. He lined up wide on 67% of snaps in 2013. He doesn’t block much. During his last salary negotiations an arbitrator ruled that he was a Tight End, but that’s really just because the NFL nomenclature for hybrid Tight End/Wide Receiver pass-catchers hasn’t caught up to reality.

Graham is 6’7″ and 265 pounds. He’s more of the class of Tight Ends that includes Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates — guys who are basically great big basketball players who don’t quite fit in the NBA and aren’t really asked to block like a traditional Tight End. Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson are reasonable comps too.

They’re all just pass-catchers who are matchup nightmares — too big to be covered by a Defensive Back and too fast for a Linebacker.

For fun:

Player Height Weight Nominal Position
Jimmy Graham 6’7” 265 TE
Rob Gronkowski 6’6” 265 TE
Greg Olson 6’5” 253 TE
Antonio Gates 6’4” 255 TE
Tony Gonzalez 6’5” 247 TE
Calvin Johnson 6’5” 236 WR
Andre Johnson 6’3” 230 WR

From there it’s a sliding scale to the big, pure wide receivers like Dez Bryant and Julio Jones at 6’2″, 220 pounds.

Given that Wide Receivers make more money than Tight Ends, the odds are high that the next “Jimmy Graham” insists he’s a Wide Receiver from the get go.

—–

A special shout-out to Harold Carmichael, one of my favorite Wide Receivers of the 70’s and early 80’s. Carmichael played at 6’8″ and 225 pounds. He was a four time Pro Bowler, was named to the NFL’s “70’s All-Decade Team”, and is in the Eagles Hall of Fame. Excellent, fun, and unique player.

NFL Historical Imagery

 

My High School Teacher Was Right

by A.J. Coltrane

I had a teacher in high school who said that [paraphrasing] “football is only about being fast and big.” That quote has stuck with me all this time..

Yesterday I searched for a graph showing speed vs weight results at the NFL Combine and came up empty. FiveThirtyEight obliged today.

Observe:

speed vs weight

The image is taken from a twopart piece that documents how the Madden player ratings are created. Unfortunately, Walt Hickey seems to be a complete non-athlete. He can’t throw, kick, or catch. (During tests, he kicked the ball 11 yards, and threw it 20. If you click on part two of the piece you can see his sad “kicking and throwing motions”.) I would have preferred that they at least tested a reasonably competent amateur, like a guy in his 20’s who was nothing special, but good enough to start at linebacker at a medium-sized high school (or something). Anyone closer to average might have provided more informative results.

Still, the articles are an interesting snapshot of the process of how the ratings are assigned.

The graph offers three takeaways:

1.  Note the Quarterback position. (purple) They’re just a little slower and lighter than everyone else.

2.  The offensive and defensive linemen cluster into two groups. The lighter group can run a little bit. The heavier group, not so much.

3.  A regression line wouldn’t wind up quite linear — it tails downward towards the right-hand end. Evidently there’s a limit to how much weight the human body can carry and still retain any mobility.

I didn’t quite believe Mr. Marsh in high school. Now I believe he had a point.

For Entertainment Purposes Only

by A.J. Coltrane

 

2015 championship odds:

 

MLS Cup Odds
L.A. Galaxy 3/1
Sounders 9/2
Super Bowl Odds
Seahawks 6/1
Patriots 7/1
Packers 8/1
World Series Odds
Nationals 6/1
Dodgers 13/2
Angels 10/1
Cardinals 12/1
Mariners 14/1
Red Sox 14/1

 

The Mariners over/under for 2015 wins falls somewhere between 85 and 87.5, depending on the Vegas source. FanGraphs pegs them at 87 wins.

It should be a fun year all around.

Backwards Through The Telescope — Sports

by A.J. Coltrane

CheapSeatEats is almost five years old (February 18). I thought I’d post about where I’m at personally with the three Pillars Of Leisure that form the foundation for writing here, starting with Sports.

You may have noticed that I haven’t written many posts about sports lately — July through October saw two or three each month, and none since November 12. Three months and no posts about sports.

I don’t think that I’m burned out on sports posts so much that the ecosystem around the blog has changed. Even over the last five years there has been a massive proliferation of sports writing on the internet. Large conglomerate sites compete for clicks with mostly unpaid content that to mind my isn’t original, and the writing often would benefit from some serious editing. Much of the writing is about as informative as is the average caller to the local radio sports talk show. I’ve never had any use for any it.

At the opposite end there are the highly researched sites like Fangraphs, Football Outsiders, Kenpom, and so on. If there’s a way to skin a cat they’re doing it. Those sites can provide excellent analysis of what’s really going on. And if breaking down trades and acquisitions is your thing… such as a math based article focused on the trade of Big Bat Billy for League Average Larry and a Package Of Prospects — they’ve got it covered. Those articles almost write themselves.

[Aside:  At some point in the not too distant future a lot of sports writing, or a least the reporting on games will be done by a computer. I know it’s being worked on. Realistically, game summaries are basically just Mad Libs with sports verbiage and a few quotes to fill in the blanks. Just run your spider program over ESPN and away you go. Free content.]

Sort of like this:

sports xkcd

I’ve also found that I’m not going back and looking at my sports posts from some time in the distant past. Sports writing is like taking a picture of a river, and the water in the photograph is now long gone.

What I’ve found I am doing is using the blog as a diary to track how I’m approaching baking, cooking, and growing things. I get value out of the old posts on those subjects, even if it’s been awhile. A written record, often with pictures, is very helpful to have around. That even applies to the gaming posts — I look at those strategy posts and wonder “What was I thinking?!?”

So.. I have no real desire to add to the endless Garbage Content pile. I’m frankly not educated and/or informed enough to add to the Excellent Content pile. I’ve absolutely established that I’m not a Unique Snowflake, at least when it comes to writing about sports.

What falls closer to Unique Snowflake status is me writing about me, and what I think I’ve learned while attempting new things. At the very least, having a record about what I did, or what I was thinking about the process of doing it has value to me. I know I learn a lot on the internet from watching people try, and sometimes fail. Just taking an aggregate of what worked means that I don’t have to reinvent the wheel.

There’s often no better teacher than negative stimulus:

mistakesdemotivator

I try to avoid being the captain of that ship, but when it happens, then hopefully someone else will learn from it.

TL;DR —  Going forward, I’ll still be doing sports posts. I’m guessing many of them will come about because I’m convinced the world is wrong and I’m right. Or they’ll be gambling related somehow. Which is sort of the same thing, isn’t it?

How do I Hate Thee, Let Me Count the Ways

By Blaidd Drwg

 

Super Bowl 49 is a worst case scenario for me – the two teams I despise the most are playing each other in a game that I couldn’t give a crap about. I figured that I should pick a team to cheer for, but every fiber of my being is telling me I should be rooting for a giant space rock to destroy the stadium with both teams in it.

So, absent the space rock, who do I choose. Let’s figure out which team I hate the least.

Coaches – I cannot stand either Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll. Both will do anything they can do to gain a competitive advantage (i.e. cheat). Belichick has gotten caught taping the opposing team’s play, is suspected in deflate gate, will find some obscure formation that is technically legal to confuse the other team (well, I have to give him credit for that one) and that is just what he has been caught doing. Carroll broke just about every rule at USC and then bailed just as the NCAA was going to come down on him and his entire defensive game plan is to commit offsides, holding and/or pass interference on every play knowing full well that the refs are not going to throw the flag on every play. Think I am just making that one up? Well check out this article. I have the feeling that this is the game that the lets commit a foul is going to come back and bite the Seahawks. Belichick has a tendency to get inside the refs heads so I expect to see one of 2 things – either the Hawks get flagged on 3 consecutive plays and then back off their “style” of play or they keep getting flagged on critical plays. Either way, Belichick is smarter than Carroll, even though I can’t stand either of them, so that gets the Pats a rouge. The score: Pats 1, Hawks 0.

Players – The Seahawks players are a bunch of whiny douces who are basically hated outside of Seattle. Sherman does not know how to stop talking, Lynch acts like a freaking 5 year old with his antics around the media (although he seems to have no problem speaking when he is getting paid for it), the comments about the random drug testing (which I am shocked that none of the players who were tested got nailed for anything, although it was probably their first offenses which don’t get reported), and just the general idiocy of what comes out of their mouths. Quick – name another player on the Patriots besides Brady and Gronkowski. I bet you can’t without looking it up. The Pats get a field goal for just keeping their mouths shut. The score: Pats 4, Hawks 0

Cities – Boston is an historic town that is famous for things like Paul Revere, clam chowder, baked beans and the Standell’s “Dirty Water”. Seattle is famous for Bill Gates, smoked salmon and Nirvana. Boston educates the smartest people in the country and then they all come out here and work for Microsoft. Seattle has the reputation for being rainy and Boston is snows, sometimes a lot. Both cities have a major inferiority complex to a neighbor to the south of them. Having lived in both places for roughly the same amount of time, weather trumps history and gets the Seahawks a quick strike touchdown and the PAT is good. The score: Hawks 7, Pats 4.

Nicknames – the team nicknames are both appropriate for their regions the Pats harkening back to the American revolution and the Hawks representing the plethora of raptors in Washington. The Seahawks get the edge on the better current logo (although the Pats would win for the old Pat the Patriot logo), but I do love that the Pats are referred to as the Flying Elvii on ESPN (with that in mind, tell me the face on the Pats logo does not look like Elvis). The Pats are going to win this one for on simple reason – the Seahawks fly a raptor before every game. That bird is an Augur Hawk. Why does that matter. It is a bird that is found in Africa and is a plains hunter. I find it horrible that a team that is named the Seahawks has a mascot that is a bird from another continent and lives nowhere near water. The Pats score a safety for just sticking with a mascot with a giant, oversized head. The score: Hawks 7, Pats 6

The Bet – every year the governors of the state the teams are from make a bet. This year the Massachusetts governor is betting baked beans against the Washington governor betting…wait for it…calm chowder? See my previous point about the cities. You are going to give a city that is known for clam chowder, clam chowder if they win? Washington is known for a lot of things culinarily – salmon, cherries, apples, hot dogs with cream cheese, but really, chowder? Not that it matters, but the food is going to be donated regardless of the outcome of the game. And what is up with the New Hampshire governor getting involved in the bet? That mess is going to penalize both teams minus 10 points with the Seahawks losing another 5 for the stupidity of sending clam chowder to Boston. The score: Pats -4, Hawks -8.

Fans – the fans are obnoxious, whiny, boorish, and a bunch of band-wagoners. Which team am I referring to? Both of them. Boston sports fans are among the most obnoxious in the world and I am embarrassed most of the time to be around Red Sox fans in other cities. Patriot fans are actually more obnoxious, if that is all possible. Seahawks fans claim the unoriginal 12th man, which they actually stole and currently license from Texas A&M, and are mostly a bunch of band wagoners. How band wagon? They were one of the last NFL teams to not sell out a game (which is really hard to do), the almost failed to sell out a playoff game when they went to the Super Bowl in 2006, there was no season ticket waiting list until 3 years ago and they were actually leaving the game 2 weeks ago when they were down 17-0 to the Packers. Most Seahawks fans couldn’t tell you who the QB was before Russell Wilson let alone who their QB was in 1992. The best thing about Boston fans is that they don’t live in Seattle. The problem is they just never go away since they do travel well. At least Seattle will go back to not giving a crap about the Seahawks once this stretch of them being good is over. I hate sore winners, and that describes both groups of fans. Both sets of fans are annoying to the point of me not being able to stand either of them, so no one gets any points for this. They are both lucky that I didn’t dock them both about 1 million points, so lets say negative 6 TD’s for the Pats and negative 8 for the Hawks. The score, Pats -40, Hawks -56

Intangibles – Usually my playoff cheering hierarchy is determined by A)the steelers are in the playoffs, B)The team with the most Boston College alumni on their roster C) which team I dislike the least. This year, the Steelers got eliminated, neither NE or  SEA have any BC Alums on their roster (although Seattle does have Kevin Pierre-Louis on their IR) and I hate both teams equally. I guess I can award a safety for having a BC Alum on IR, but he is not active, so there is no automatic rooting for the Hawks.

As the horn sounds, the final score is the Pats -40, the Hawks -54.

The conclusion is that I am rooting for the giant space rock first and then, very reluctantly, the Pats. At least with the Pats, I can just ignore all the Pats fans I know Facebook posts. I don’t want to go through another 2 weeks of Seahawks obnoxiousness if they win. My guess, the Pats win this bad boy 23-20. Go Flying Elvii, I think.

Jordan Morris

by A.J. Coltrane

On Monday night the Sounders advanced to the Western Conference Finals with a tense 0-0 tie at CenturyLink. (No, really. It was *tense*.) The Sounders will play the Galaxy on the 23rd and 30th. The winner goes to the actual Finals.

Which makes this next bit interesting to me:  The U.S. squad has a couple of friendlies coming up,

The U.S. takes on No. 3-ranked Colombia on Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET in London at Craven Cottage with more than 20,000 tickets already sold. On Nov. 18, the U.S. team will play Ireland for the first time since 2002 at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium, beginning at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Dempsey was left off the squad. DeAndre Yedlin is making the trip, though it looks like he’ll have time for adequate rest before the games with the Galaxy.

The U.S. roster:

Goalkeepers: Brad Guzan (Aston Villa), Bill Hamid (D.C. United), Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)

Defenders: DaMarcus Beasley (Houston Dynamo), Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City), John Brooks (Hertha Berlin), Geoff Cameron (Stoke City), Timmy Chandler (Eintracht Frankfurt), Greg Garza (Club Tijuana), Fabian Johnson (Borussia Monchengladbach), Jermaine Jones (New England Revolution), DeAndre Yedlin (Seattle Sounders FC)

Midfielders: Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake), Alejandro Bedoya (Nantes), Mix Diskerud (Rosenborg), Julian Green (Hamburg), Alfredo Morales (Ingolstadt), Lee Nguyen (New England Revolution)

Forwards: Jozy Altidore (Sunderland), Miguel Ibarra (Minnesota United FC), Jordan Morris (Stanford), Rubio Rubin (Utrecht), Bobby Wood (1860 Munich), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes)

One name on the list sticks out – Stanford student Jordan Morris. I figured I’d look into whatever his story is a little bit.

As it turns out he’s a 20 year-old member of the Seattle Sounders Academy. He was born in Seattle and graduated from Mercer Island High. He’s a sophomore at Stanford — bio is here.

I think it’s pretty cool that the Sounders Academy has produced two potential National Team members in a short period of time. Here’s hoping that the Northwest will continue to represent a rich pipeline of talent, and that it will funnel through the Sounders.

Jordan Morris

Handicapping the MLB Awards

By Blaidd Drwg

We are in MLB awards season. Yesterday we had the announcement of the AL and NL ROY, won by Jose Abreu and Jacob DeGrom. Abreu was a no-brainer and DeGrom, despite only pitching 144 innings, got 26 of the 30 first place votes over Billy Hamilton (remember him from this) and Kolten Wong, both of whom posted sub-300 OPB and sub-700 OPS. It was a weak year in the NL for rookies.

We have the Manager of the Year, MVP and Cy Young coming up this week and it should be interesting. Keep in mind that the voting is completed for all 3 of the awards on the last day of the regular season, so the playoffs have no impact. Here are my thoughts:

 

Manager of the Year

Predicted Winners: Mike Scioscia (AL), Bruce Bochy (NL)

I took a quick look at the ESPN 2014 predictions and virtually no one had either the Angels or the Giants winning their divisions or the wild card, so they both get the nod from me. It will be interesting to see who wins because you can make the argument than any of the 6 finalists deserve to win the award.

 

Cy Young

Predicted Winners: Felix Hernandez (AL), Clayton Kershaw (NL)

Let me just put this out there – Kershaw was far and away the best pitcher in baseball this year and he will be a unanimous winner. The AL is different. I actually would not have voted for Felix if I had the vote simply because he imploded in his next to last start and essentially cost the Mariners a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Neither Sale nor Kluber pitched for a contender, but here are the stats for all 3 of them:

  W-L ERA SO WHIP IP ERA+ WAR K/9 K/BB
Felix 15-6 2.14 248 0.915 236 170 6.8 9.5 5.39
Kluber 18-9 2.44 269 1.095 235.2 152 7.4 10.3 5.27
Sale 12-4 2.17 208 0.966 174 178 6.6 10.8 5.33

 

There is a small piece of information that I wanted to share. A day after Felix had his disastrous start in Toronto, the official scorer changed a play that was (correctly) ruled a hit to (incorrectly) be an error. That resulted in 4 ER being removed from Felix’s stats and gave him the ERA and WHIP titles. Without the scoring change, Felix essentially has the same ERA as Kluber. It is really a toss-up between Kluber and Felix though – they had virtually identical stat lines with Kluber striking out a few more hitters and Felix giving up a few less hits, but I think this will be a pretty close vote, with Felix coming out just ahead. Sale, while probably better than either Kluber of Felix this year, missed a month of the season and that will lead to him finishing third.

 

MVP

Predicted Winners: Mike Trout (AL), Clayton Kershaw (NL)

The NL is interesting since you have to compare 2 hitters to a pitcher. McCutchen and Stanton both had good, not great, seasons, pulling in a 6.4 and 6.5 WAR respectively. Kershaw, despite an early season injury and just under 200 IP, pulled in a 7.5 WAR. The selling point for me – the Pirates may or may not make the playoffs without McCutchen, the Marlins just suck worse without Stanton but the Dodgers don’t win their division without Kershaw.

All 3 of the AL finalists had fine seasons, but the reality is Mike Trout was just a ton better than either Michael Brantley or Victor Martinez, neither of whom are very likely to be that good next year. Besides, I had to actually look up Brantley’s stats to see how good he actually was, although I was tempted to give him points for being Mickey Brantley’s kid. The scary thing about Trout is that he is just 22 and this was a “down year” for him, posting a career low 7.9 WAR, which was still good enough to lead all of baseball.

Are You Just Glad To See Me?

by A. J. Coltrane

Tonight is LeBron’s “homecoming” game in Cleveland.

Other NBA matchups (ESPN/StubHub prices):

MATCHUP TICKETS
Washington at Orlando 501 available from $12
Detroit at Minnesota 215 available from $19
New York at Cleveland 56 available from $701
Utah at Dallas 1,064 available from $13
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers 2,159 available from $27

Looks like Cleveland is glad alright.

—-

When is that last time you heard someone say that they were “glad”?

—-

I’m watching the 2nd quarter right now. LeBron lost weight in the offseason and looks like a bigger and younger version of Paul Pierce. He’s positively light on his feet. The rest of the NBA should be terrified.