A baking and gardening journal. Mostly.
By Blaidd Drwg
Back in my younger days when I was just a pup, they used to play this inbetween innings at Mets games at Shea Stadium. I have absolutely no idea why this popped into my head completely out of the blue recently. I probably have not heard this song in 20+ years.
By Blaidd Drwg
I recently decided to buy back a small piece of my youth and purchased a 1984 Topps complete set. It was fun reliving the memories of the 1983 season and my 10 year old self putting together the set. Living in NJ in 1983, there was excitement over the big rookie in NY that took the league by storm – Darryl Strawberry. His rookie card is in that set, along with another NY rookie who wouldn’t really make an impact until the next season – Don Mattingly. There are also cards of a very young Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg, a very old Pete Rose and my all-time favorite name Doug Gwosdz (pronounced GOOSH, had the nickname “Eyechart”).
One of the cards that caught my eye was a highlights card that had Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan and Gaylord Perry on it. I had forgotten this, but 1983 was the year that Walter Johnson’s 55+ year old record for strikeouts in a career fell, and 3 pitchers managed to pass the total of 3,509. Here is the way things stacked up going into the 1983 season:
| Player | Age | Strikeouts |
| Walter Johnson | n/a | 3,509 |
| Nolan Ryan | 36 | 3,494 |
| Gaylord Perry | 44 | 3,452 |
| Steve Carlton | 38 | 3,434 |
Obviously Nolan Ryan was the one who was going to break the record first give he was just 15 behind Johnson going into the season. Ryan was starting to look like it might be near the end for him – he had been good but not great for a couple of seasons, so 4,000 strikeouts looked like it might be his upper limit. Perry was a bit of a longshot to catch Johnson because of his age and general ineffectiveness over the previous few seasons. Carlton, despite 1983 being his 38 year old season, had come off this 1982 season:
Ryan passed Johnson first and then Carlton and then Perry. Something strange then happened at the end of 1983. Here is how Ryan and Carlton pitched that season:
| W-L | ERA | IP | SO | |
| Carlton | 15-16 | 3.11 | 283.2 | 275 |
| Ryan | 14-9 | 2.98 | 196.1 | 183 |
Carlton again led the league in IP AND SO, at age 38! So despite being the first pitcher to pass Walter Johnson, Nolan Ryan was not the all-time strikeout leader at the end of 1983:
| Player | Age | Strikeouts |
| Steve Carlton | 38 | 3,709 |
| Nolan Ryan | 36 | 3,677 |
| Gaylord Perry | 44 | 3,534 |
| Walter Johnson | n/a | 3,509 |
Carlton was not nearly as good at age 39 in 1984 (nor for the rest of his career) and Ryan was about as good as he had been the previous 4 seasons, allowing Ryan to finish up 1984 as the all-time strikeout leader, a spot from which he never looked back, adding 1840 strikeouts to his career total after age 37. Since Johnson’s record was initially broken, 5 other pitchers passed the 3,509 total. For one brief season, Steve Carlton was baseball’s all-time strikeout king.
By Blaidd Drwg
I saw this piece on espn.com and my reaction was 3 words:
AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!
Here are the details:
The gap between second baseman Robinson Cano and the New York Yankees on a new contract is enormous, with sources telling ESPN’s Buster Olney that the soon-to-be free agent is seeking approximately $305 million over 10 years.
Cano is going to be 31(ish) next season and, while he has been durible and excellent, he is on the wrong side of 30 and is more likely to get, at best, a 7 year $150 million dollar deal, and that is probably only if the Yankees bid on his services. He is due to decline, and I just don’t see any team willing to pay 30 million a year for a guy over 40, including the Yankees. It just won’t happen.
By Blaidd Drwg
I moved to Seattle from Boston 10 years ago today. With my beloved Red Sox playing well and looking like the front runners for winning the World Series, I came to the realization that if they pull it off again this year, it will be 3 World Series Championships in my lifetime, all of which occurred AFTER I left Boston. It isn’t like the Sox weren’t good when I was living there, it is just that they were getting caught behind the Yankee dynasty and couldn’t overcome it. I will count 2003 as a year in Boston, since I was there for most of the time, but here is how the team fared in my time back east vs. my time in the land of salmon and rain:
| Years | W-L | PCT | World Series | Playoffs | Winning Seasons |
| 1991-2003 | 1081-959 | .530 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2004-Current | 898-702 | .561 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
Not really a point to this, just marking the 10th anniversary of my move to Seattle with something vaguely sports related.
Oh, and this:
By Blaidd Drwg
You probably don’t know the name Hiroshi Yamauchi, but you should if you live in Seattle. He is the former president of Nintendo and the majority owner of the Mariners and probably the person single handedly responsible for keeping major league baseball in the Northwest when he bought the team in 1994.
Yamauchi passed away at age 85 yesterday. By all accounts, everything the team did got run through him, so I have no idea what kind of impact this will end up having on the Mariners. My guess though is that the team is sold to a bunch of non-local investors for somewhere north of 1 billion dollars and the house cleaning will begin shortly thereafter.
By Blaidd Drwg
Thanks to Rob Neyer, I watched a 6 minute segment that Keith Olbermann did recently concerning pitchers being babied. Tom Seaver was ranting about it and Olbermann completely destroys Seaver’s argument. Worth watching and you can see it here:
By Blaidd Drwg
I happened to be watching the America’s Cup race (don’t ask, it is one of my guilty pleasures) and I noticed on the crawl that there were two retirements announced from baseball today: Vlad Guerrero, who actually hasn’t played in the majors since 2011, and Todd Helton, who made his effective at the end of the season.
Guerrero will always hold a soft spot in my heart. Back in 2003, in what would be Vlad Guerrero’s last game as an Expo, I remember him getting a 5 minute standing ovation from the crowd as he was replaced in right field by Ron Calloway. Everyone knew that Vlad, who was going to be a free agent at the end of the season, was going to sign somewhere else. Vlad will also be remembered by me for being listed at 10-1 in Vegas for the 2004 AL MVP. Needless to say, my bet paid for my 2005 trip to Vegas.
Helton is an interesting case – he is a guy who put up some pretty good career numbers but played half of his games in Coors field.
Just for comparison, here is how they both stack up:
| AVG | HR | RBI | H | SB | OPS | OPS+ | WAR | |
| Guerrero | .318 | 449 | 1496 | 2590 | 181 | .931 | 140 | 59.9 |
| Helton | .317 | 367 | 1397 | 2505 | 37 | .954 | 133 | 61.1 |
They had very similar career numbers. Sadly, I doubt that either of them will end up in the HOF, although they both have a pretty strong case that they belong. Vlad would get my vote and I think Helton would get mine eventually – heck he is a much better choice than either Tony Perez or Jim Rice.
By Blaidd Drwg
“How about global therm0nuclear war?”
No, well how about this?
Let’s say the season ended on September 3rd and we were going to vote on the Cy Young Award. Here are the AL WAR leaders according to Baseball-reference. Com:
|
1. |
Sale (CHW) |
6.2 |
|
2. |
Scherzer (DET) |
6.0 |
|
3. |
Iwakuma (SEA) |
5.5 |
|
4. |
Hernandez (SEA) |
5.2 |
|
5. |
Sanchez (DET) |
5.0 |
|
6. |
Darvish (TEX) |
5.0 |
|
7. |
Quintana (CHW) |
4.1 |
|
8. |
Kuroda (NYY) |
4.0 |
|
9. |
Holland (TEX) |
3.9 |
|
10. |
Buchholz (BOS) |
3.9 |
Let’s assume that is all of the contenders for the award. It is a pretty big spread between 6.2 WAR and 3.9 WAR, so let’s eliminate anyone with a WAR below 5.0. That leaves us with this:
|
1. |
Sale (CHW) |
6.2 |
|
2. |
Scherzer (DET) |
6.0 |
|
3. |
Iwakuma (SEA) |
5.5 |
|
4. |
Hernandez (SEA) |
5.2 |
|
5. |
Sanchez (DET) |
5.0 |
|
6. |
Darvish (TEX) |
5.0 |
While Iwakuma’s total numbers are good, he really has been pretty pedestrian since about mid-June, so let’s take him off the list. Besides, Felix is really the guy you would rather have on the mound for the Mariners anyway. I am going to eliminate Sanchez for a similar reason – he isn’t the best pitcher on his team. That leaves us with Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish.
Here is how they stack up:
| W-L | ERA | SO | WHIP | ERA+ | |
| Chris Sale | 10-12 | 2.97 | 199 | 1.055 | 144 |
| Max Scherzer | 19-2 | 2.88 | 209 | 0.940 | 146 |
| Felix Hernandez | 12-9 | 3.01 | 200 | 1.132 | 122 |
| Yu Darvish | 12-6 | 2.73 | 236 | 1.025 | 151 |
While Felix is having a good season, he hasn’t been dominating, so he probably finishes #3 or #4 in the voting with Chris Sale occupying the other spot. Sale has been outstanding, but voters will be turned off by his 10-12 record. That leaves it as a battle between Scherzer and Darvish. Both pitch for teams that are heading to the playoffs. Scherzer has benefited from outstanding run support, but he has also been pretty dominating in his own right – his WHIP leads the AL (Darvish is 3rd), he is giving up just under 6.3 hits per 9 innings (Darvish leads the AL with 6.1 per 9), he has a 4.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ration (good for 5th in the AL, Darvish is 8th at 3.9) and has the highest WPA of any starting pitcher in the AL. With how close the stats are between Darvish and Scherzer, it is going to come down to wins for the voters and that 19-2 record looks awfully nice, so Scherzer would win the award.
Given that, I have no idea what Jim Leyland is complaining about.
Maybe a nice game of chess is in order.
By Blaidd Drwg
For clinching their first .500 record since George Bush (the first one, not the second one) was still President and some guy named Bonds was roaming the outfield at Three Rivers Stadium, on astroturf.
By Blaidd Drwg
I am writing this a couple days in advance, so hopefully I remember to go back and update it.
With about a month to go in the season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape.
In the NL, we have all but decided who is going to be in the playoffs:
Really the only thing left to figure out is who ends up relegated to the Wild Card game. Heck, according to ESPN.com, the only NL team with at least a 6% chance of making the playoffs other than the Pirates/Reds/Cardinals/Braves/Dodgers is the Diamondbacks at 18%. Interestingly the only other team with more than a 1% chance of making the playoffs is the Nationals at 5.8%.
At least there is a bit more drama in the AL. There are 5 teams that have a real shot at the Wild Card spots – The A’s/Rangers (whoever does not win the AL West), Red Sox/Rays (whoever does not win the AL East), Indians, Orioles and Yankees. Each one of those teams is at least within 3.5 games of the 2nd Wild Card spot. The Royals were making it interesting, but have faded after losing 7 strait and will have to wait until next year.
On the flip side, I wanted to congratulate Houston on officially being the first team completely eliminated from playoff contention (assuming they lose Wednesday night). In the era of 2 Wild Card spots, to be eliminated before the end of August is something of an accomplishment. I guess it isn’t hard when you have won 33% of your games, have the worst run differential in baseball (by a bunch), have given up the most runs in baseball (quick, name any Astros starting pitcher – I bet you can’t) and have the worst home record in the game.
As for the Mariners – they are on pace to win 73 games (remember when people were picking them to be a wild card team?) I know that Coltrane disagrees with me, but I think that Z gets fired if they don’t win at least 77 games. For those who were overly optimistic about the M’s during spring training, I want to revisit something that I posted earlier this year:
… I would project that the Mariners will probably put up about 4.25 runs a game this season, accounting for the “improved” lineup and the fences moving in. That would be about 688 runs for the season, which means that they would have been 12th in the AL last season instead of last. That might mean that this is a 77 win team instead of a 75 win team.
The Mariners are currently on pace to score 636 runs (3.92 runs a game) which means that my prediction of 4.25 was optimistic. I did peg them as a 75-77 win team, which, barring a big run at the end of the season, is going to be just about where they end up. Now repeat after me: “I will listen to Blaidd Drwg when it comes to the Mariners…”
FlatbreadGarden 