Robinson Cano and Free Agency

By Blaidd Drwg

I saw this piece on espn.com and my reaction was 3 words:

AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!

Here are the details:

The gap between second baseman Robinson Cano and the New York Yankees on a new contract is enormous, with sources telling ESPN’s Buster Olney that the soon-to-be free agent is seeking approximately $305 million over 10 years.

Cano is going to be 31(ish) next season and, while he has been durible and excellent, he is on the wrong side of 30 and is more likely to get, at best, a 7 year $150 million dollar deal, and that is probably only if the Yankees bid on his services. He is due to decline, and I just don’t see any team willing to pay 30 million a year for a guy over 40, including the Yankees. It just won’t happen.

2 thoughts on “Robinson Cano and Free Agency

  1. Fangraphs has a poll going where you can enter what you think his salary will be. The consensus seems to be along the lines of 6/150.

    He’s averaged 6.3 WAR (Wins Over Replacement) over the last three years. The last time I checked wins cost about $4.5 million.

    If you figure he loses .5 WAR each year with age you get:

    5 Years = $108M (5.8, 5.3, 4.8, 4.3, 3.8 = 24 WAR)
    6 Years = $122M, 27.3 WAR
    7 Years = $135M 30.1 WAR

    Of course, the cost of wins is going up all the time, so if you increase that last figure by (say) 20%, it gives you 7/162, an average annual (AAV) of $23M.

    Sounds about right to me. It’s right in line with what people are estimating over at Fangraphs, and right around your “maximum contract value” estimate.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/contract-crowdsourcing-2013-14-robinson-cano/

    Like

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