Category: MLB

Cleveland Rocks

By Blaidd Drwg

A little nugget from the “Strange but True” column by Jason Stark on December 30th:

Speaking of Cleveland, the Indians played an April 20 game in which they took a 14-0 lead on the Astros. The Strange But True part involves the local football team, the Browns, who haven’t held a 14-0 lead in any of their past 96 games!

In case you are following at home, that is 6 seasons worth of games. The last time that the Browns had a 14-0 lead on an opponent – December 30, 2007, exactly 6 years to the day that the column ran. It was also the last game of the season and the last time the Browns finished a season with a winning record.

The Blaidd Drwg 2014 Mariners Report

How hard is it to get excited about the Mariners? Well, let’s take a look at their off-season so far:

Signed Robinson Cano – 10 years/$240 million

Signed Corey Hart – 1 year/$6 million

Signed Willie Bloomquist – 2 years(!)/$5.8 million

Signed John Buck – 1 year/$1 million

Signed Franklin Gutierrez (!!!) – 1 year/$1 million

Signed Endy Chavez to a Minor League Deal (YAHOO!)

Signed Scott Baket to a Minor League Deal

Traded Carter Capps for Logan Morrison.

I know a bunch of Mariner fans are really excited by the Cano signing, but, as I have written before, I don’t think that it benefits the team. The Mariners aren’t near contending and I honestly think that they are probably 2-3 years from POTENTIALLY being there, and by the time they get there, Cano will be in the decline phase of his career and that contract is going to look horrible. That contract is so bad that I know Yankee fans who are happy their team didn’t offer Cano anywhere near those years or dollars – and these are people who think Cano is the best player in the league. That should tell you something.  It also probably means that the Mariners have given up on Nick Franklin since he no longer has a position to play. So much for the youth movement.

The other problem with all of those signings is that you don’t really improve on the positions that you have deficiencies in. One of the Mariners biggest issues was lousy outfield defense. There is absolutely no way that the Mariners should have every put Raul Ibanez in LF for the 100+ games that he was (the Colossus of Rhodes has more range than Raul) and they had the revolving door in both CF and RF and on occasion were playing 3 left fielders in their outfield at any given time. So what do they do, go out and replace Ibanez and Morse with Hart and Morrison – basically 2 OF who are horrible defensively and probably aren’t any better offensively than Ibanez and Morse.  Add to that they still don’t have a centerfielder (I think they have given up on Ackley there too) or a right fielder. Kind of makes you miss the days of Ichiro, doesn’t it.

The catching situation is definitely up in the air. The John Buck signing is an important one because it tells me that the M’s still have questions about Zunino’s ability to hit at the MLB level. Buck isn’t going to win an MVP award, but he is decent enough to catch about 2/3 of your team’s games, so this didn’t strike me as a “sign a backup guy” type move. My prediction is that Buck is your opening day catcher and Zunino starts the year in Tacoma.

The M’s didn’t address the need for another starting pitcher. Sure they have a bunch of young guns in the system, but you never know how those guys are going to hold up over a full season (take a look at Brandon Maurer last year) so you need an insurance policy. The 2 best starters left on the market are Ubaldo Jiminez and Ervin Santana. It is probably going to take a 4 year/ $50 – $60 million dollar deal to land one of those guys and I have the feeling that the M’s will sign one of the two of them and then regret that move by the end of the season. The problem is that neither is consistent enough to warrant the money you will have to spend for them and there is a good chance that neither would be pitching for the Mariners by the end of their contract should they get signed by the team. The M’s need to show fans they are trying to win and the way they seem to approach that is by overpaying for talent. The other option is to sign a scrap heap started (see Joe Saunders last year, that is what the Scott Baker deal is this year) and hope that the young guns actually can contribute. If they don’t, you probably just lost another 20% of your already eroded fan base.

The other two guys whose names keep getting associated with the Mariners are Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz. Both guys were looking for huge contracts and neither one is going to get one, so at least if you sign them, you probably can do it on a one year deal. The issue is that you already have a bunch of horrible defense/1B/DH/LF types on the roster and how much of an improvement are these guys anyway over the mass of players you have?

We still have a few weeks before the start of spring training and there is always the possibility that the Mariners will make some unexpected moves, but right now, this looks and feels like a 77-80 win team at best. On the bright side, at least the Astros will keep the M’s from finishing last in the division and I am willing to bet that Zdurencik gets fired if this team is not playing at least .500 ball at the all-star break.

Oh, in case you don’t agree with me, Dave Schoenfield is much more pessimistic about the Mariners outlook:

Yes, signing Cano will make the Mariners interesting at the start of the season. But … well, what else is there? The Mariners are desperately counting on their young players — Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, Dustin Ackley (is he still a young player?), Justin Smoak (ditto) and Michael Saunders (ditto) to improve — and all have huge question marks. They’re counting on two rookies in Taijuan Walker and James Paxton for the rotation. They hope Hart and Morrison are healthy, but even then they’re basically replacing the production Morales provided last year. Cano should be great, but I’m having trouble seeing where the improvement is going to come from unless Walker and Paxton are much better than anticipated.

Prediction: 74-88

When the Mariners Traded Shin Soo Choo

By Blaidd Drwg

I love Rob Neyer. I think he is a great writer and we share many of the same opinions about the game of baseball. He recently wrote about the Shin Soo Choo for Ben Broussard disaster trade in 2006. One of the really cool things about the article is that he actually talked to Bill Bavasi about it. I was surprised by this comment from the former Mariners GM:

When I got there it was made REAL  clear they didn’t want any five-year plans … and  that I’d get a mulligan in 2004 but, from then on they’d expect  consistent improvement toward a postseason.  When I say “improvement” I  mean relative to our record. So even though we operated under some  pressure to tangibly improve on a regular basis, the  Choo and Cabrera trades were a product of my own stupidity and good  work by the Indians.

When was the last time that a GM admitted that a bad trade was his fault? I give Bavasi credit for laying the blame exactly where it is due. Now if Z would only realize the same thing about the moves he has made…

A Couple Of Ancient Mariner Emails, Or, Ichiro Then And Now

by A.J. Coltrane

Before the CSE I’d bulk email friends with thoughts about sports. Here are two Ichiro-centric emails from the early oughts. (Ichiro’s rookie year was 2001.) The first email is dated April 1, 2002:

There’s a cool website that uses Bill James’ similarity scores to compare players. Basically the more statistically similar two players are, the higher the score. Max is 1000, anything over 900 is high.

For fun, I ran I similarity score lookup on Ichiro. The interesting thing that came up was that the most 10 similar players to Ichiro had careers that started between 1884 and 1924. Very odd. Most of them had short careers too, although I don’t think that means anything.

These are almost all players of the “dead ball” era. The baseballs of the time were soggy and gray, and they never put a new one in play. Guys would spit tobacco juice on the ball to make it harder to see. Pitchers weren’t afraid to walk anyone, because the ball wasn’t going far anyway.

Now look at what Ichiro does offensively: great batting average (.350), great speed (56 SB), no power (8 HR), no walks (692 AB, about 20 unintentional walks).

The 10 most similar players:
Roy Carlyle (944)
Fred Nicholson (934)
Showboat Fisher (934)
Pete Scott (927)
Dick Cox (927)
John Sullivan (923)
Harry Moore (922)
Joe Knight (919)
Maurice Archdeacon (915)
Juan Pierre (914)

A bunch of nobodies. Personally, Ichiro reminds me most of Rod Carew… a career .328 hitter, who has Hall of Famers for 7 of his 10 “comps”, along with Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn, who aren’t eligible yet. We’ll see how it plays out.

The “cool website” was baseball-reference.com, back when that was a new thing. The text above looks maybe I had a clue. Ichiro’s current career batting average is .319, and his top four comps are Kenny Lofton, Lloyd Waner, Richie Ashburn, and Willie McGee. Two HOFers, a fringe HOF, and another guy who had a high peak but falls short of the Hall.

Maybe I should have stopped when I was ahead (May 4, 2003):

He hit .350 as a rookie, establishing himself as a superstar (American League average is .275, meaning that on average 27.5% of At Bats result in hits). He hit .321 last season, including .281 after the All-Star break (which is loosely the halfway point of the season). Ichiro is currently hitting .250 this season.

There have finally been a number of articles over the last few days about his lack of hitting. The local media seems to be pretty evenly split between:

a) “Something’s wrong, he’s in a slump, he’ll snap out of it.” and

b) “The league finally caught up to him.”

I’m taking “b”. When he came into the league conventional wisdom was that he’d be a career .270 hitter or so. He has no power and never takes a walk, so his batting average is very “empty”. If he hits .270 the only thing that will keep him in the league is his defense, as he doesn’t do anything else well.

I’m figuring career .285, tops.

Whiff!  Good defense + great speed resulting in a bunch of infield hits = long career. Really, right now he’s about where I figured he’d be for the bulk of his career — he just had to turn 40 to get there.

I should have stuck with the first impression.

More on the Mariners…Now With Expert Opionions

By Blaidd Drwg

The Mrs. accuses me of being too negative about the Mariners.  Yet, every year I make a prediction about their win total, I am either pretty much spot on or slightly optimistic about the team in hindsight. Since I don’t really care about the team, my predictions are analytical based on stats rather than emotions, so when I say that the Mariners are a 75 win team, that is what the stats tell me, not what my gut does.

My wife probably hated this post last week where I thought that the Mariners prospects for making moves and signing someone like Cano were not as optimistic as some people.  I wrote it before the rumors about David Price came up. I still don’t think that getting Cano and Price makes them a playoff team and I am not the only one. Here are some comments from 3 diehard Mariners fans who I absolutely respect the opinion of:

Scott Weber of Lookout Landing:

It’s that the Mariners simply are not in a position to make this kind of a splash, this many games out of a playoff spot. Especially when two other teams in their division are much stronger, and are also fortifying their clubs with moves that help them win now.

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner:

And I’m not convinced that David Price is the right guy, nor am I convinced that the 2014 Mariners are the right team, for this kind of trade to be worth doing.

David Schoenfield of ESPN.com:

You can’t trade Walker for Price and then not sign Cano. But that’s no guarantee. You could trade for Price tomorrow and then see Cano sign with another team in January. And how good would they make the Mariners? Maybe Price pushes this team to 75 wins. Maybe Cano pushes it to 80. Maybe the young guys play a little better and you win 85.

All 3 quotes came from Schoenfield’s piece last week on espn.com, it is worth the complete read. These 3 guys know a heck of a lot more about the Mariners than I do and they all feel the same way I do. What does that tell you about this team?

The Mariners and the Offseason

By Blaidd Drwg

I keep hearing that the Mariners are going to be a major player in the FA market this season. Here is where I think the Mariners have some major holes to fill to bring them to an 82-85 win team:

RF and LF (assuming that Dustin Ackley is their CF)

1B or DH (depending on where you play Smoak)

C (you need someone who can play almost every day in case Zunino proves 2013 was not a fluke)

SP (at least one back of the rotation guy)

RP (the bullpen needs help – too many guys imploded last year)

If you want to talk about being a playoff contender, they probably need to replace Smoak with someone better and they probably need 2 middle of the rotation guys in addition to 2 OF, a catcher and some bullpen help. I personally think they need to do more than that and that would be a ton of spending, so it isn’t going to happen.

I write this because of the flurry of activity that has occurred over the last week. The A’s have made trades to bolster their team and so have the Rangers. The Yankees have signed the best catcher and OF on the market and appear to still be in the running for Cano. The Tigers are making themselves better through trades and signings. The Mariners? Well, they did sign Willie Bloomquist. Are you excited yet?

I keep hearing the Mariners are the front runners for Robinson Cano. He tried to play chicken with the Yankees and the Yankees wouldn’t budge, so his agent, Jay-Z, decided to pull a Scott Boras move and get a bidding war for Cano’s services going, hence the Mariners involvement. The M’s are a team with just 2 players under contract (Iwakuma and Felix) and a bunch of guys who are arbitration eligible/under team control. If the M’s don’t go out and spend any money on FA’s this season, their payroll will be in the 45-50 million dollar range. Based on that, the M’s could afford to overpay Cano in the 25-27 million dollar range just to get him to sign.

With the M’s offer, Jay-Z goes back to the Yankees and says, “See, there is a team willing to pay my client 27 million per for 8 years, but he really wants to stay in NY. If you do 25 million per for 7 years with an option, we can call be happy.” Unless the Rangers step in, I would put money on Cano signing for 7 years/175 million with the Yankees.

There are a couple of reasons why signing Cano makes no sense, especially for 8 years:

  • You have now committed 50+ million dollars on 2 players through 2019. That is a ton of payroll on two guys considering one is a pitcher and the other will be in his late 30’s.
  • Signing Cano to that contract would basically mean he is untradeable. You now have to hope that his batting numbers don’t fall into a black hole in Safeco, or that he becomes unhappy if the team is not competitive.
  • You have no place to play him. I don’t think you can put him at DH, so that means you have to find a new position for Nick Franklin, unless you put Cano at 1B and move Smoak to DH.
  • Your team is going to get really expensive over the next 3 seasons. All of the guys under team control will get bumps due to arbitration and the arbitration eligible guys will get huge bumps from free agency.  As deep as the M’s farm system is, it can’t replace the entire roster, so you are probably looking at adding 40-50 million to your payroll in the next few seasons, assuming that you keep all of the important guys.
  • You are going to have to sign or replace Iwakuma. He is on the last year of his contract in 2014 and you are probably going to be paying him in the 15-17 million per range unless he implodes this season. The M’s hold an option on him for 2015, but I expect that the contract will get extended sometime this season and void the team option.
  • When was the last time a mega deal free agent worked out for the team that signed him?

Cano makes sense if you are close to being a perennial contender. The Mariners are not. I suspect what happens in the next few months is the M’s sign Nelson Cruz, resign Kendrys Morales, a couple of replacement level guys for the bench , a scrap heap starter and a couple of fungible relief guys and plod their way to another 77-81 win season, hoping that all of the kids become superstars.

And folks wonder why I gave up my season tickets.

Blaidd Drwg’s Annual HOF Rant

By Blaidd Drwg

Hall of Fame ballots were sent out the other day and this may be the most stacked ballot in the history of the HOF voting, with no less than 8 legitimate HOFers (steroid argument aside) on the ballot and I would argue of the 36 guys who are on the ballot, at 10 of them deserve to be in the Hall, no questions asked. My list:

Greg Maddux

Tom Glavine

Frank Thomas

Barry Bonds

Roger Clemens

Mark McGwire

Craig Biggio

Jeff Bagwell

Rafael Palmiero

Mike Piazza

Considering I doubt that the BBWAA can pull its head out of its ass, I think that we see Biggio, Maddux and Glavine this year get elected, but that is it. The guys who are hurt most by the stupidity of the BBWAA are the fringe guys like Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina. These guys are not going to get as much support as they should, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them ends up dropping off the ballot.

Speaking of which, this is thankfully the last year we have to hear about the Jack Morris as HOFer argument. I have expressed my feelings about that in the past, so it is time again to play spot the HOFer.  Which one of these guys would you vote for/suggest is a HOF pitcher?

  Regular Season         Post Season  
  W-L ERA K/9 ERA+ WAR   W-L IP ERA
A 216-146 3.46 8.6 127 80.7   11-2 133.1 2.23
B 219-156 4.27 5.4 107 51.1   3-3 43.1 4.15
C 254-186 3.90 5.8 105 43.8   7-4 92.1 3.80
D 270-153 3.68 7.1 123 82.7   7-8 139.2 3.42

 

It is pretty obvious that players A and D were far and away better than the other 2 and A was very dominant in the post season (not that D was a slouch either). Player A is Curt Schilling, who received roughly half of the vote total as Jack Morris last year. Player D is Mike Mussina, who is on the ballot for the first time. Players B and C, forgetting the win total for the moment, look like they are roughly the same player. Player B? Kenny Rogers. Player C? Jack Morris. Still think Morris looks like a HOFer? Morris is arguably the 5th best pitcher on the ballot this year and there is no way in hell he should get elected before Maddux, Glavine, Schilling or Mussina.

Bye Bye Chuck Armstrong

by A.J. Coltrane

Chuck Armstrong has retired from his position as President of the Mariners. I think there are more than a few fans who feel that the M’s leadership has been … lacking … for many, many years. They feel that the M’s have been more interested in profits than in putting a strongly competitive team on the field. The M’s have only won more than half of their games twice in the last ten years. Their record over that period is 718-902 (72-90 on an average year.) As a result, more than a few fans are happy to see him go.

I lean that way somewhat. It seems to me that over the last decade the M’s could have cared more about results and less about appearances. It felt a bit like that – so long as the attendance didn’t crater everything was cool with them. I think to some degree the glow of the new stadium, the residual goodwill from the 116 win season, and the “Ichiro Suzuki thing” made leadership complacent about improving the product on the field. (Cubs fans will accuse their team of much the same thing — that Wrigley Field is a money printing machine, and that historically their ownership has been content to cash the checks.) I’m fine with Armstrong leaving, though hopefully that replacement won’t be even worse. Turmoil can be a very bad thing…

—

I’ve been asked recently about both Sigi Schmid (Sounders) and Steve Sarkisian (UW football) and their futures in Seattle. “Is it time for so-and-so to go?” It looks like a lot of the two fan bases feel like the teams should be accomplishing more than they are.

One at a time:

Sigi Schmid — The Sounders have made the playoffs every year of their existence. Sigi has more wins than any other coach is MLS history. Who do people think the Sounders will replace him with that will be an improvement?

Steve Sarkisian — UW fans seem to believe that the Huskies are still relevant nationally and that they’re somehow entitled to winning teams. UW’s last championship was in 1991, which is well before any current recruits were born. From 2003-2008 the team failed to make a bowl game, compiling a record of 18-53. *That’s* what potential recruits are seeing when they consider destinations — and it takes a loooong time for that stink to wear off. Even in a best case scenario it’s 3-4 years before college football teams can go from bad to good, it takes that  long for the new recruits to develop. Hey UW fans: You are aware that the Huskies have now lost ten straight games to Oregon, right? It’s a new era – the top three teams in the Pac 12 are Oregon, Stanford, and USC, and it’ll likely stay that way for a while.

So:

Playoffs every year for the Sounders? Great! I’ll take it!

Seven or eight wins and a bowl game every year for the Huskies, with the potential for even better results ahead? Awesome!

Sounders fans and Husky fans — Shut up and say thank you.

The Veterans Committee is at it Again

By Bladd Drwg

The veterans committee gets to vote (and probably not elect) anyone this year again. Here is the blurb from espn.com of who they get to consider:

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Retired managers Joe Torre, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox will join holdovers George Steinbrenner and Marvin Miller on the Hall of Fame expansion era committee ballot next month.
Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin and Ted Simmons also are held over from the 2010 ballot, while Dave Parker and Dan Quisenberry have been added. Vida Blue, Ron Guidry, Al Oliver and Rusty Staub have been dropped.

The committee will meet at the winter meetings in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., and its vote will be announced there Dec. 9.

Torre and Cox retired as managers after the 2010 season and La Russa after leading the St. Louis Cardinals to the 2011 World Series title.

None of the players on the ballot really deserve to be in the hall, unless you consider Billy Martin as a manager, and then you can make a case for him. Concepcion, Garvey, John, Simmons, Parker and Quiz all were excellent players during their careers but were never quite good enough to be considered greats and the hall would actually be worse off for electing any of them.

There is an interesting argument with the other 5 names. Torre, LaRussa and Cox all had hall of fame managing careers. Torre won 2300 games and 6 pennants and 4 WS titles over 29 seasons. Cox won 2500 games, 5 pennants and 1 WS title over 29 years. LaRussa won 2700 games, 6 pennants and 3 WS titles over 33 years (and is the only one of the 3 to win a pennant with more than one team). They rank 5th, 4th and 3rd respectively in career manager wins, behind only John McGraw and Connie Mack. They are also the only 3 managers in the top 10 in career wins that are not in the HOF. All three should be but I would bet only one of them makes it this year and my money is on Torre.

Steinbrenner and Miller are interesting cases – one was an owner (Steinbrenner) and one was the head of the players union (Miller). Both had significant impact on the game – Miller with leading the players union into the era of free agency and Steinbrenner, well, for being Steinbrenner. I really think Miller has a stronger case than Steinbrenner but both should eventually make it to the Hall. Getting them elected, well that might be harder since neither was particularly well liked by a segment of the voters, so we may never see a plaque with their names hanging in the gallery.

 

For your viewing pleasure, a cartoon by the late, great Bill Gallo and his classic George Steingrabber character:

Steingrabber