Category: Football

The Best QB in the NFL is…

By Blaidd Drwg

In a league where you have Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, would you consider Alex Smith the best QB in the league?

Well apparently Chief’s Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson does:

“Ultimately, every team has to have a quarterback,” Pederson told The Kansas City Star. “I think we have the best in the league.”
…
“There are a lot of great ones, but over time, Alex has proven he can get it done,” Pederson told the newspaper. “He’s a sharp guy, he brings a wealth of knowledge, he’s experienced, he’s a proven winner the last couple of years, and he needs a team to embrace him.”

Alex Smith has proven he can “get it done”? Really? The same Alex Smith who has only two seasons in 8 years in the league where he started more than 10 games? The same Alex Smith who proved so inept at running an offense earlier in his career that he has managed to compile a 38-36-1 career record? The same Alex Smith who last season couldn’t win back his job after he got hurt from a guy whom, up until that point had thrown 14 passes in the NFL?

Must be a different Alex Smith we are talking about.

The whole story is here on ESPN.com.

The Rock, Milk and Super Bowl Ads

By Blaidd Drwg

I really stopped caring about the commercials in the Super Bowl years ago when most of them just generally started to suck. Companies then got smart and started releasing their Super Bowl ads before the game on the web to generate buzz by putting them online. Last year, it was the Darth Vader Volkswagen commercial that drew the most attention. I watched it and thought it was one of the greatest commercials ever. I then saw it when it aired and I was confused – it really wasn’t as good as I remembered it being. I decided to do a bit of research and found that the version posted online was over a minute long and it got edited down to fit in a 30 second spot. It may not seem like a big deal, but could you imagine trying to watch a 2 hour version of any of the Lord of the Rings movies if they had to cut out half of the film.

Flash forward to this year. I thought that the milk commercial starring The Rock was brilliant and I essentially laughed out loud most of the time. It got very little reaction from the crowd watching it, and once again, I knew why – the online version was 1 minute long, but they edited it down to a 30 second spot. What was lost was the long shots of The Rock stopping at each disaster and deciding he didn’t have time to deal with it. Here is the version of the ad that aired during the game:

Here is the full version of the ad:

I will leave it up to you to decide, but I really think this is on par with the VW Vader Commercial.

Round Two

by A.J. Coltrane

Atlanta represents a very different opponent. They’re going to throw the ball. A lot.

  Run Pass Overall
Seahawks Offense 3rd 27th 17th
Falcons Defense 21st 23rd 24th
       
Falcons Offense 29th 6th 8th
Seahawks Defense 6th 10th 4th
The line is Atlanta by 2.5. The Over/Under is 46.
 
According to Scouts, Inc., DE Chris Clemons is Seattle’s best player, and he’s out with an ACL injury.
 
See:
 
 
I don’t see either team really stopping the other. The Seattle defensive backs and linebackers are going to have a rough time covering Jones, White, and Gonzalez. Atlanta probably won’t really be able to shut down the Seattle running game.
 
The Washington and over didn’t work out last week, but this week the Seahawks won’t be facing a crippled quarterback. If this week’s game comes down to a shootout I’d put my fictional money on the more proven quarterback with the vastly superior receiving corps. For silly prediction purposes I’ll take Atlanta and the Over.
 

Round One

by A.J. Coltrane

The line is Seahawks by 3, even though they’re the lower seed and they’re playing on the road. The Over/Under is 46. This is exactly the kind of game that I don’t like to gamble on — see the chart below.
  Run Pass Overall
Seahawks Offense 3rd 27th 17th
Redskins Defense 5th 30th 28th
       
Redskins Offense 1st 20th 5th
Seahawks Defense 6th 10th 4th

Both teams prefer to run and have strong run games. Both teams are good at stopping the run. Either one or both teams may be forced to throw more than they’d like, and the game may come down to which quarterback has the better day.

…and to make it more interesting…

Both quarterbacks are rookies, and each has had an efficient season to this point — they’re 3rd and 4th in Quarterback Rating, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Maybe they’re both capable of a big day. At the very least each will provide a direct-comparison yardstick to use in evaluating the other. To me that’s going to be the most interesting part of watching the game.

This is likely one of those games that the team giving up the fewest turnovers wins.

Which is why I don’t like to gamble on this kind of game. I visualize a lot of cringing happening on Sunday, no matter what outcome you’re rooting for.

—-

For the purposes of silly predictions: I’ll take the Redskins and the 3 points and the Over.

Observations on the New Mexico Bowl

By Blaidd Drwg

I love college bowl season – you can get some interesting matchups, especially when you involve some of the mid-major teams in the early bowls. Case in point is the New Mexico Bowl played on December 15th. It involved a 7-5 Nevada team vs. an 8-4 Arizona team. So what, you might ask. Well, let’s just say this sums up the kind of game you would expect (numbers represent their ranking among FBS teams):

  Arizona Nevada
Passing Offense 25th 52nd
Rushing Offense 16th 7th
Points Scored 16th 17th
Points Allowed 106th 102nd

Two teams with high powered offense and no defense, you would expect this game to play out like a video game, which it effectively did. Nevada rolled up 659 yards of offense in this game while Arizona managed a “meager” 578. The teams collectively converted 5 out of 6 4th down chances, combined for 7 turnovers, Nevada lost leads of 21-0 and 45-28, Arizona recovered an onside kick and went 49 yards in about 27 seconds to score the winning touchdown in a 49-48 victory. The game, despite its lack of defense, was actually very entertaining to watch. Arizona actually scored two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the game to pull of the come-from-behind victory.

One thing I had not realized about Arizona – their running back Ka’Deem Kerry, ended the season with 1929 yards and 23 TD’s. How much more under the radar could this guy be considering he is from a BCS conference and plays for a team that was ranked at one point this season. Oh, and he will only be a junior next season.

The Strike Zone, Morales, And Vick

by A.J. Coltrane

1.  First off, here’s a look at the size of a MLB strike zone, by count. (Hint:  It’s not even remotely the same, depending upon the situation.) Includes very cool visuals.

2.  The M’s trade a pitcher (Jason Vargas) for a hitter (Kendrys Morales). It’s basically just defense for offense. Both players have one year left before free agency. Morales is represented by Scott Boras, so I’d assume Morales is basically a rental. Actually, I kind of hope that he is. Morales is Cuban, so who knows how old he is, really? Plus, it’s Scott Boras we’re talking about dealing with here. Pass.

USSM has two posts with excellent analysis of the trade and the aftermath.

3.  Finally, because I couldn’t leave it alone:  The Jets are reported to be seeking to trade Mark Sanchez and they have an interest in Michael Vick.

Good Lord. Really?!

Repeat after me:  “If Michael Vick is the answer, you’re asking the wrong question.”

Upset

by A.J. Coltrane

I’m playing in a restaurant pool where contestants pick the winner of each NFL game. The restaurant awards gift certs if you have the best weekly record, or the best record at the end of the season. Underdogs won 10 out of 14 games outright last week. I didn’t pick anything like 10 underdogs last week, so this was me:

 

Copout-gate 2012

By Blaidd Drwg

The NFL ref situation is now beyond ridiculous. Everyone knows about the botched calls at the end of the Seahawks-Packers game that resulted in a Seahawks win.

Well, the NFL decided to release a statement about the game, and, in the biggest copout ever, Roger Goodell said this:

While the ball is in the air, Tate can be seen shoving Green Bay cornerback Sam Shields to the ground. This should have been a penalty for offensive pass interference, which would have ended the game. It was not called and is not reviewable in instant replay.

I am fine with that. It was a play that was missed, although I am less likely to excuse the missed call on the interference based on the lousy calls earlier in the 4th quarter, one of which included Sidney Rice doing everything but stabbing Green Bay DB Sam Shields on a pass play and Shields getting called for pass interference.
The travesty is the NFL won’t admit that the refs and the replay officials got the call wrong on the actual interception:

Replay Official Howard Slavin stopped the game for an instant replay review. The aspects of the play that were reviewable included if the ball hit the ground and who had possession of the ball. In the end zone, a ruling of a simultaneous catch is reviewable. That is not the case in the field of play, only in the end zone.

Referee Wayne Elliott determined that no indisputable visual evidence existed to overturn the call on the field, and as a result, the on-field ruling of touchdown stood. The NFL Officiating Department reviewed the video today and supports the decision not to overturn the on-field ruling following the instant replay review.

I am not really sure which replay the officials were looking at, but there was definitely enough evidence to overturn the call in just about everyone’s opinion. What I suspect this is all really about is the league does not want to give any leverage to the officials that they locked out. By admitting that the replacement refs blew both calls, the locked out officials could use that as leverage in their negotiations.

That being said, I am tired of watching the officials constantly blow calls and get calls wrong, so I won’t be watching another minute of NFL football until the regular refs are back blowing calls weekly.

 

Update: It appears sometime between the time I wrote this and the time I posted it, the regular refs are going to be back at work.

Too Short II

by A.J. Coltrane

Ok, I know I’m hung up on this “Russell Wilson Is Too Short Thing”, but:

Wilson has been called a test study in a league that hinges on centimeters and is steadfast on black-and-white metrics. A wide receiver is supposed to run the 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds, an offensive lineman is supposed to weigh 300 pounds and a quarterback is supposed to stand at least 6-foot-2.

“He’s what you call an outlier,” said former Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt, whose grading system would’ve subtracted 15 points for Wilson’s height. “You go broke looking for those guys. For every guy that you draft that’s three inches and four inches below the accepted minimum, 99 of 100 are going to fail. He’s a real exception.

“Have you ever talked to him personally? He’s the most dynamic guy you’ll ever be around. He has such an unusual flair. I mean, this guy wins you over with two minutes’ talk. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a quarterback that’s undersized like he is that has been so dynamic.”

Emphasis mine. Overall the piece gushes about Wilson. Including this:

…In the middle of the [locker-room] noise, Wilson is sitting on the floor in front of his locker, his face buried in a binder. He’s highlighting pages with a fluorescent marker. It’s as if he’s in a library. Oh, Wilson will engage with his teammates soon. In a couple of days, he’ll take the field against the Dallas Cowboys. He’ll struggle a bit in the first half, but will slap nearly every hand on special teams and make every man feel amped and important.

Then Wilson will scramble and throw lasers in the second half of a 27-7 victory. He completes 13 of his final 15 passes and throws for 151 yards and a touchdown. His 75 percent completion rate is the highest for a rookie in Seahawks history.

That’s fine, they can select their statistics to make him look good, but through the first two games Seattle is last in the league in passage yardage at 136 yards/game. (also 7th in Rushing, and 28th overall) They’re scoring 21.5 points per game, tied with Cleveland for 24th in the league.

The Seahawks play Green Bay on Monday night. Green Bay is 5th in total defense (7th pass, 28th rush).  I’ll be interested to see what happens when Green Bay stacks the box to stop the run — they’re going to have to do it to win. My feeling is that it’s going to be a long day to be Russell Wilson.

Too Short

by A.J. Coltrane

From left to right:  Matt Flynn, the recently departed Tavaris Jackson (he’s not dead, he’s just been traded to Buffalo), and new rookie starter Russell Wilson.

Flynn is 6′ 2″.

Jackson is 6′ 2″.

Wilson is 5′ 10″ +5/8″

Longtime readers may remember a series of posts I did looking at the heights of Super Bowl quarterbacks over the last 20 years. Those posts and research are now gone, but the result was:   The average Super Bowl quarterback of the last 20 years stood 6′ 2″ – 6′ 3″. Wilson is a full four inches shorter than that.

Here’s a list all quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl.  The only winner as short as 6’0″ is Drew Brees. Three time loser Fran Tarkenton was 6’0″. Len Dawson was 6’0″; he was the unfortunate loser of Super Bowl I. That’s the entire height-deficient list. 45 Superbowls = 90 quarterbacks, and three guys standing 6’0″.

Here’s the list of the all-time passing leaders. Find the shortest guy in the top 100. I don’t think there are any quarterbacks under 6’0″, even among the old-school guys.

I keep hearing Drew Brees comparisons as an example of a short quarterback who can be successful. The shortest listed height I’ve been able to find for Brees is 6’0″ — Brees is nearly an inch and a half taller than Wilson.

I’m belaboring this point:  Unless Wilson is an outlier of truly historic proportions the Seahawks are barking up the wrong tree. I’d go with Flynn.