Category: Basketball

The NBA Playoffs — More Predictable Than They’d Like You To Believe

by A.J. Coltrane

According to John Hollinger (ESPN insider only), there are some fairly hard and fast “rules” governing the NBA Playoffs:

Teams that don’t have home-court in the first round, and lost the season series to their opponent, almost always lose.

Up until last season, teams in this situation had lost 41 straight times. Ouch. Last year, there were two exceptions, but even those got giant asterisks — San Antonio beat Dallas, but the Mavs only won the season series because they played against the Spurs’ backups on the last day of the season. And Utah beat Denver, but only after the Nuggets lost half their team and their head coach.

So it’s now up to 46-2 in the past 48 meetings; there were four occasions it happened in the 1990s, but you’re still looking at about a 95 percent fail rate. I’ll go ahead and bet against that unless presented with a darned good reason not to…

The five teams on the short end of that stick this year are Denver, Indiana, Philadelphia, New York, and New Orleans. Of course, that’s before David Stern gets involved.

Then there’s this one:

Since the league went to a 16-team payoff format in 1983-84, only 13 teams have won consecutive series without home-court advantage.

 …This gives us a pool of roughly 300 teams, give or take. Out of that pool, 13 pulled it off. So the odds of pulling this off are roughly 1-in-20; it only happens about once every two years, and it happened each of the past two…

Hollinger goes on to predict a Lakers vs Heat Finals. I think it will be the Lakers against either the Bulls or Heat.

As far as the “David Stern gets involved” — see the Sonics-Suns Western Conference Finals, 1993, Game 7 — the Suns shot 64(!) free throws to the Sonics 36 en route to winning the game 123-110. That result gave the NBA their Barkeley-Jordan Finals matchup. There’s a chart showing the FT/FGA for the series. For reference, the league average in 1993 was .234 (23.4 Free Throws attempted for every 100 Field Goal attempts.) Check out the “spike” in free throw rate favoring the Suns in Game 7:

FT/FGA -- Free throw rate per Field Goal attempted.

Artis Gilmore Enters The Hall, Belatedly

by A.J. Coltrane

“Rodman, Mullin, Highlight Hall Class Of 2011”

I guess that’s sort of accurate, Dennis Rodman and Chris Mullin *are* going into the Basketball Hall of Fame — but really… look at the charts, starting with career totals:

Player Points Rebounds Assists
Artis Gilmore 24941 16330 3050
Dennis Rodman 6683 11954 1600
Chris Mullin 17911 4034 3450
Rodman + Mullin 24594 15988 5050

 

Gilmore in his ABA days.

That’s one way to look at it; the 7’2″ Gilmore had more points and more rebounds than Mullin and Rodman, combined.

Gilmore *did* play forever, maybe his per game stats suffered:

Player Points Rebounds Assists Total
Artis Gilmore 18.8 12.3 2.3 33.4
Dennis Rodman 7.3 13.1 1.8 22.2
Chris Mullin 18.2 4.1 3.5 25.8

That one favors Gilmore too.

How about career Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes?

Player Career Win Shares WS per 48
Artis Gilmore 189.7 0.193
Dennis Rodman 89.8 0.150
Chris Mullin 93.1 0.139
Rodman + Mullin 182.9  

 

In mid-late career Gilmore played with the Spurs. This is how I remember him.

There it is again — Gilmore had more career value than Rodman and Mullin combined *and* he contributed at a higher rate per 48 minutes.

I’m of the suspicion that the Hall wanted to admit Rodman due to his seven rebounding titles, five championships and the fact that he was Defensive Player of the Year two times. If Rodman was going in it meant that the Hall finally had to take Gilmore.

Here’s a piece on NBA.com about Gilmore. Check out the highlight reel, though it only sort of does him justice (and try to ignore the commercial at the beginning.)

The two players directly behind him in career points are Ewing and Iverson. (Gilmore is 20th all-time.) He’s also 5th all-time in career rebounds, about 4,700 (41%!) ahead of Ewing. Ewing is already in the Hall of Fame. 

Really, Gilmore should have been admitted 15 years ago.

The Big Dance – Sweet 16 Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

I really need to congratulate myself. With Ohio St. losing, my bracket is officially done, before the Elite 8. I think this has to be a record for someone who was actually picking games with some degree of knowledge. There were some great games in the Sweet 16 – Bulter continues to surprise everyone, Uconn still refuses to lose, and VCU and Florida St. are in a barn burner. You have to love an Elite 8 with only one #1 seed left. Here are the gritty details :

Coltrane Annie S Blaidd Drwg Winner
Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St. Kentucky
Syracuse North Carolina Syracuse North Carolina
Uconn SDSU SDSU Uconn
Duke Duke Duke Arizona
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Butler
Florida Florida Michigan St. Florida
Notre Dame Purdue Notre Dame VCU
Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas
W – 3 

L – 5

 W – 3 

L – 5

 W – 1 

L – 7

Here are the standings after the Not So Sweet 16:

Wins Points
Blaidd Drwg 31 400
Coltrane 34 520
Annie S. 31 470

Basically bragging rights are coming down to the Florida-Butler game. If Florida wins, Annie S. gets bragging rights and if Butler wins, Coltrane takes the crown. They both have Kansas winning the whole thing, so that is the only game where there is a chance for Annie to take the lead. Here is what we all have remaining:

  Elite 8 Final 4 Final 2 Champ
Blaidd Drwg 1 0 0 0
Coltrane 3 1 1 1
Annie S. 3 2 1 1
Brad Stevens - Seriously, is this guy even old enough to drive, let alone coach a college basketball team?

I am pulling for Butler for the rest of the Tournament. Not that I want to see Coltrane win, I just want to see Butler have another shot at a national title. Besides, how could you not cheer for a team where the head coach looks like he is fresh out of high school himself.

Las Vegas And The Ashtray Of Shame

by A.J. Coltrane

It was a good long first weekend in Vegas of March Madness gambling. I made over 50 (straight) bets on college basketball and won about 65% of them — I had money on all but about two games between Thursday and Sunday. (For the record, betting on every single game is *not* the recommended way to be successful in Vegas.)

The highlight of the weekend was the San Diego State – Temple double overtime game. The Aztecs were 6 point favorites, and the score was close as the game wound down. So close that everyone who had picked San Diego State — and that was everyone in the bar — were loudly rooting for overtime at the end of regulation. And at the end of the first overtime. San Diego State finally pulled away in the second overtime to win by a whopping 7 points! The bar erupted, and there were high-fives with complete strangers all around!

The lowlight was BYU failing to cover as 8.5 point favorites against the Wofford Terriers. Here are the last fifty seconds:

Time Wofford Score BYU
:50   63-73 Jimmer Fredette missed Free Throw.
:50   63-74 Jimmer Fredette made Free Throw.
:41 Cameron Rundles missed Jumper. 63-74  
:40   63-74 Noah Hartsock Defensive Rebound.
:14   63-74 Jimmer Fredette missed Three Point Jumper.
:08 Wofford Defensive Rebound. 63-74  
:02 Terry Martin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Cameron Rundles. 66-74  

That was a killer! Fredette missed a free throw with BYU up 10, then threw up a terrible brick of a 3-point attempt with 14 seconds to go. Wofford capitalized on this “opening” by making a meaningless 3-pointer with 2 seconds to go, reducing the deficit from 11 to 8, and bringing a collective groan from the crowd. (Nobody had picked Wofford, either.) It was kinda funny actually — most times there’s at least some grumbling and swearing when bets are lost. But to lose the bet like that — what are you going to do? Stupid Jimmer Fredette.

What happens to all of those losing tickets?

The Ashtray Of Shame! For proper effect, say it like a super hero would say it.

The Big Dance – Day 4 Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

Not a good day for any of us. Losing ND further destroys my already miserable bracket.  The ugly truth:

Coltrane Annie S Blaidd Drwg Winner
Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St.
Syracuse Syracuse Syracuse Marquette
UNC UNC UNC UNC
Duke Duke Duke Duke
Texas Texas Texas Arizona
Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas
Purdue Purdue Georgetown VCU
Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Florida St.
W – 4 

L – 4

 W – 4 

L – 4

 W – 4 

L – 4

Here are the standings after day 4:

Wins Points
Blaidd Drwg 30 360
Coltrane 31 400
Annie S. 28 350

Coltrane extends his lead, but Annie is in the best shape for the rest of the games. Here is what we all have remaining:

Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Final 2 Champ
Blaidd Drwg 6 4 2 1 0
Coltrane 9 5 3 2 1
Annie S. 7 6 4 2 1

The Big Dance – Day 3 Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

Day 3 was an utter disaster for me. The ending of that Pitt game, well, lets just say I am never picking them again. It was a good day of hoops watching though – lots of exciting, close games to keep the viewing interest. I had a bunch to say about the games today, but I am so pissed off at Pittsburgh, that will be for another day. The bloody carnage:

Coltrane Annie S Blaidd Drwg Winner
Kentucky West Virginia Kentucky Kentucky
Uconn Missouri Missouri UConn
SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU
Florida Florida Michigan St. Florida
Gonzaga St. John’s St. John’s BYU
Wisconsin Wisconsin Kansas St. Wisconsin
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Butler
Lousiville Lousiville Lousiville Richmond
W – 5

L – 3

 W – 3

L – 5

 W – 2

L – 6

  

Here are the standings after day 3:

  Wins Points
Blaidd Drwg 26 320
Coltrane 27 280
Annie S. 24 270

My bracket is essentially done – I have lost the entire Southeast Region. Here is what we all have remaining:

  Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Final 2 Champ
Blaidd Drwg 7 6 3 1 0
Coltrane 8 7 3 2 1
Annie S. 8 7 3 2 1

It is now between Annie and Coltrane for bragging rights.

The Big Dance – Day 2 Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

Day 2 was a much better day for picking games than Day 1. There were some tight games and fantastic endings. Memphis came within a last second blocked shot of pushing my record to 15-1 for the day and George Mason made a furious comeback to down the once Tops 5 ranked Villanova Wildcats (what happened to them). The game that hurt me is Georgetown losing to VCU, meaning I lose another sweet 16 team in the process. How about Marquette? Has any team ever been the same double digit seed (#11) in their conference tournament and NCAA Tournament in the same year? They are tough and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they end up pushing Syracuse in a tight game. The results from day 2’s games:

Coltrane Annie S Blaidd Drwg Winner
Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St.
Villanova Villanova George Mason George Mason
Xavier Marquette Marquette Marquette
Syracuse Syracuse Syracuse Syracuse
Washington Georgia Washington Washington
UNC UNC UNC UNC
Duke Duke Duke Duke
Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan
Arizona Memphis Memphis Arizona
Texas Texas Texas Texas
Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas
Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois
Georgetown VCU Georgetown VCU
Purdue Purdue Purdue Purdue
Texas A&M Texas A&M Florida St. Florida St.
Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame
W – 12

L – 4

 W – 12

L – 4

 W – 14

L – 2

  

Here are the standings after day 2:

  Wins Points
Blaidd Drwg 24 240
Coltrane 22 220
Annie S. 21 210

It is still anyone’s game especially since my bracket isn’t looking so hot in the later rounds – I managed to not pick the winner in only 8 games, but in 5 of those cases, I had the winner going to the Sweet 16, so that does hurt. Here is what we all have remaining:

  Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Final 2 Champ
Blaidd Drwg 11 7 4 2 1
Coltrane 15 8 4 2 1
Annie S. 13 8 4 2 1

There are a couple games today that should be interesting:

I really want to watch Richmond-Morehead St. It doesn’t matter who wins this one, there will be at least a #12 seed in the Sweet 16 this season, but you have 2 teams who are playing on a major high, which I think has the makings of a great game.

Gonzaga-BYU should be a win for the Zags. Gonzaga has become another Purdue for me – the years I don’t pick them to do anything, they end up winning a bunch of games and the years that I do pick them to advance, they get bounced in the first round. This year, I picked them to lose in the first round, so of course they beat St. John’s and should beat an undermanned BYU team.

Cincy-Uconn – nothing like having 2 conference rivals play each other in the NCAA tournament. I think this is the letdown game for Uconn – this will be their 7th game in the last 2 weeks and I think the air finally gets let out of the tires in this one.

The Big Dance – Day 1 Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

For the Big Dance, Coltrane, Annie S. and I decided to pick brackets for bragging rights on the board. Here is how we did on Day #1:

Coltrane Annie S. Blaidd Drwg Winner
Vandy Richmond Vandy Richmond
Louisville Louisville Louisville Morehead State
West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia
Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky
Missouri Missouri Missouri Cincinnati
Uconn Uconn Uconn Uconn
Penn St Penn St Penn St Temple
SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU
Pitt Pitt Pitt Pitt
Old Dominion Old Dominion Butler Butler
Kansas St Utah St Kansas St Kansas St
Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin
Gonzaga St Johns St Johns Gonzaga
BYU Wofford BYU BYU
Michigan St UCLA Michigan St UCLA
Florida Florida Florida Florida
W-10 L-6 W – 9 L – 7 W – 10 L – 6  

The standings after round 1:
Coltrane – 10
Blaidd Drwg – 10
Annie S. – 9

Where it gets ugly is the later rounds – Coltrane only lost one of his Sweet 16 teams, Annie 3 and I lost 4, including one of my Elite 8 teams. That is not good for me.

I missed most of the games today as a result of being out of town. Tomorrow I will be working from the couch enjoying about 87 million hours of hoops. Hopefully day 2 will end up better than day 1 for me.

Coast to Coast – The Huskies Edition

By Blaidd Drwg

Yesterday was a good day to play for a team named the Huskies.

Huskies East Edition

You won't see these Huskies in the Big Dance next week, but they are a hell of a lot cuter than either UCONN or UDUB

Winning 5 basketball games in 5 days isn’t easy under the best of circumstances, and when you are trying to do it in the Big East Tournament, that may just be the most impressive run in College Basketball history. The 19th ranked Huskies started off the Big East Tourney as the #9 seed, which means they got to play an extra game. Of course, that game was against DePaul, the worst team in the Big East, but they still had to play it and win. Once they disposed of the Blue Demons, they then had to run this gamut (these are the national rankings of their opponents): #22 Georgetown, #3 Pitt, #11 Syracuse and #14 Louisville. Granted they did not win any of those games by more than 3 points, but I don’t care who you are, beating 4 ranked teams in 4 days is amazing to say the least. Despite the big MO in the Huskies corner, I think they are in for a letdown in the second round of the Big Dance.

Huskies West Edition
On the other coast, the Washington Huskies, teetering on the bubble and barely surviving their game against WAZZU managed to take out Arizona and win the Pac10 automatic bid. This probably moved the Huskies up to somewhere around a 7 seed in the tournament, but I can’t figure this team out – some days they play like the team that was ranked earlier in the season and some days they play like they can lose to just about anyone. It should be interesting to see whom they end up matched up against when the seedings are announced later today.