The show is 6 or seven episodes in (I have only watched the first 4) and I have somehow managed not to post about Top Chef – Season 7 until now. I will tell you now that there are no spoilers in this post, unless you count my feelings on the show as a spoiler.
Could Angelo be the next Top Chef?
First off, I really don’t care who wins this season. I really don’t like any of the contestants (dull personalities, too much conflict, too many “drama queens”) nor do I think the talent level is anywhere close to any of the past 6 seasons. There has not been a single chef in Season 7 that I can say, “Hey, he/she is going to make the finals and win this thing.” Maybe last season ruined it for me when after one episode it became clear that the 3 best chefs were Kevin and the Voltaggiobrothers. Heck, even Marcel from season 2, as much of an ass as he was, was obviously very talented and it was easy to recognize. If you are watching Season 7, I would love to know your thoughts, if you aren’t watching, don’t bother.
As for my finals prediction – if I had to pick, I would go with Kenny, Angelo and Amanda although I would not be surprised if all 3 are eliminated in the next few weeks. That is how inconsistent the cooking has been. “Restaurant Wars” should be an interesting episode this season.
I mentioned TTO the other day in my Brandon Wood post. TTO stands for Three True Outcomes – the only 3 things that a batter (or a pitcher) has completed control over when he is at the plate (or on the mound): Home Runs, Strike Outs and Walks. Basically the formula is (HR + BB + K) / PA; the higher the percentage, the better. These guys tend to hit a bunch of HR, are among the league leaders in walks, strike out by the bucket load and don’t do much else.
Everything else a batter does when he puts a ball in play has a certain element of luck attached to it – a fielder misplays the ball, doesn’t quite get to it, runner in motion opens up a hole, etc. (you get the idea). Yes, a player can hit an inside the park HR, but the guys who get brought up when you talk about TTO are big burly monster sluggers who probably could only end up with an inside the park HR if the other team decided to leave the field when he was running the bases.
Why the post about TTO? Well, I have a soft spot in my heart for the sluggardly sluggers that tend to populate this list. The current poster children for the classic TTO player are: Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds and, my personal favorite Adam Dunn.
"The Hyphen" has been more like a question mark in 2010.
After another complete disaster on the mound, you really need to wonder what the heck the Mariners are doing trucking Ryan Rowland-Smith out there every 5 days. His record stands at 1-10 with a stellar 6.97 ERA. At this point, I think it is time to move “The Hyphen” to the pen or ship him down to Tacoma and give someone else a shot – my vote, Chris Seddon.
So what has happened to RRS? He has been good for the last couple of seasons and now he can’t get anyone out. I am guessing that he has some sort of an undiagnosed injury that is causing his issues, but we can’t know for sure. The one thing I can tell you is there are some very disturbing trends. Here are his stats from the last 3 seasons as a starter:
GS
IP
HR
BB
SO
ERA
WHIP
BAbip
BB/9
SO/9
HR/9
2008
12
72.0
10
27
38
3.50
1.389
.272
3.4
4.8
1.2
2009
15
96.1
9
27
52
3.74
1.183
.253
2.5
4.9
0.8
2010
19
96.1
23
40
38
7.10
1.723
.302
3.7
3.6
2.1
Note – please see the glossary for an explanation of BAbip, and the /9 stats.
BAbip – RRS was somewhat lucky in both 2008 and 2009 – he had an abnormally low BAbip (most pitchers, even great ones are somewhere around .285 – .290 most seasons), especially in 2009. It is probably partially attributed to the great Mariners defense, partially to Safeco Field (his career split difference is somewhere around .035), partially to his drop in walk rate (less guys on base means you can throw more pitches on the fringe of the zone and those tend to make for more outs) and partially to luck. His 2010 number is a little higher than average, but not completely out of line and probably closer to what you would actually expect from any pitcher. The jump from 2009 to 2010 explains some of change in his performance, but not most of it.
HR Allowed – In his 168 innings in 2008 and 2009, RRS allowed 19 home runs, a pretty run of the mill number. In 96 innings this year he has allowed a league leading 23 (!). There is one of the primary reasons that he has had issues. When the ball leaves the yard that often, you really won’t be successful. That is a huge jump for a guy who historically does not give up many HRs and it has been a real problem on the road. He has given up 5 HR in 47.1 IP at Safeco and 18 HR allowed in 51 innings on the road. This is the primary reason I think that he might be hurt. Of course, it could also be a mechanical issue on his part too.
Strikeout Rate – Let’s face it, you would expect a guy who is 6’3” and 230 Lbs. to actually throw hard and strike out batters at a minimum a league average pace (about 6 K’s per 9 innings). Not RRS. Most guys don’t last long when the K rate is down around 5 per 9 innings and you really have a short lifespan when your rate drops below 4. The big drop on an already low rate is another indicator he might be hurt. The thing is, it isn’t like he can’t be a power pitcher – he has a career 8.6 K/9 in 87 innings as a reliever. The problem is that most of those innings came before he got hurt last season. I say, put him back in relief and let him throw hard for an inning instead of trying to pace himself.
Maybe the Mariners are trying to let RRS work out some mechanical issue with the big club and maybe they are trying to showcase him for a trade (that isn’t really working if it is the case). Either way, it is time to pull the plug on him in the starting rotation. Don’t be surprised if RRS ends up on the DL sometime before his next start and Luke French takes his place in the rotation.
Update – I wrote this the morning of 7/28. Shortly thereafter, the Mariners placed RRS on the 15-Day DL and called up Luke French. Shocking.
100th post. It could be about anything! I was strongly considering yet another Howard Schultz rant, but we’ll save that for another day.
Boycott Starbucks! Howard Schultz is a traitor to the community that made him filthy stinkin’ rich! He’s a back-stabbing…backstabber!
There. I got it out of my system.
Onto the subject of the post — Vern Stephens.
Stephens came up as a 20 year-old in 1941 with the St. Louis Browns. He avoided service in the war due to bad knees, instead working at a shipyard when he wasn’t playing baseball. In the winter of 1947 he was traded to the Red Sox. By 1949 he was in his prime, as a 28 year-old playing shortstop and hitting the cover off of the ball. The Red Sox that year went 96-58, finishing 2nd in the American League, one game behind the Yankees. Here’s his age 28 season as compared to the age 28 seasons of some other well-known-and-fairly-recent shortstops:
Age 28 Year
Average
HR
RBI
OPS+
Vern Stephens
.290
39
159
138
Barry Larkin
.304
12
78
132
Alex Rodriguez
.286
36
106
131
Miguel Tejada
.308
34
131
128
Nomar Garciaparra
.310
24
120
127
Alan Trammel
.277
21
75
120
Derek Jeter
.297
18
75
111
Cal Ripken
.257
21
93
105
39 HR! 159 RBI! (And yeah, RBI is a flawed stat, but 159 RBI is a huge total.)
In 1949 he totalled 8.2 WAR — a figure Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols would be happy with. Stephens totalled 53.7 WAR for his career. By comparison, Bill Buckner (the subject of the last Athlete Restrospective) totalled 24.6, and Buckner was a really good player who played seven more seasons than Stephens. (Stephens’ knees quit on him. His last good, healthy year was his age 29 season in 1950.)
Why am I so hooked on Vern Stephens? I really have no idea. He hit for average, he hit for power, and he did it while playing shortstop. He played with Ted Williams and was a comparable hitter. I probably learned about him in 1985 from reading the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, so in my consciousness he predates A-Rod and Jeter and the rest. I didn’t see a picture of him until maybe 15-20 years later, which added to the intrigue. For a while he was one of the all-time greats, and nobody really remembers him any more.
That’s kind of what this series of posts are about.
The only pitcher to record a save without throwing a pitch – Mitch Williams with this gem in 1989. He picked off Carmelo Martinez before throwing a pitch to a batter.
Wild Thing, I think I (used to) love you, but you gave me an ulcer watching you pitch.
Next up – post number 100. I will leave that honor to Coltrane.
This is the first in what I expect to be a series of posts, featuring former athletes that for one reason or another captured my attention and never really went away.
—
Bill Buckner is a player who always gets talked about when the Red Sox are in town. He’s well-known, but it occurred to me that I didn’t really know how valuable he was over the course of his career. I decided it would be fun to do a little digging…
Exhibit One–
Bill Buckner played four decades in the major leagues, from 1969 (one AB) up through his age 40 season in 1990. When he was young he played for the Dodgers, in mid-career the Cubs, and in the twilight of his career he played for the Red Sox (and the Royals and the Angels.) He played 22 years in total, mixing some big seasons in with years that were less than great.
Buckner totalled 24.6 career WAR, good for 735th all-time among position players. As the chart illustrates, he would have had a great career, rather than a really good one — had his production just resembled a bell curve a little more than it did.
Exhibit Two– Hitters that rank just ahead of Buckner on the Career WAR list:
Mike Bordick
The future was wide open..
Irish Meusel
Sammy Strang
Johnny Kling
Charlie Hollocher
Gus Suhr
Joe Cunningham
Ed Charles
Jeff Conine
Bill Buckner
Bordick, Conine, and Buckner were all “good” players for a long time. Catcher Johnny Kling had a more sustained peak but shorter career. Kling played from 1900 to 1913, his good years coming with the Cubs.
Exhibit Three– The 10 most similar hitters to Buckner (using career totals) from Baseball-Reference.com:
The sky was the limit..
1. Mickey Vernon (876)
2. Al Oliver (866)
3. Steve Garvey (855)
4. Mark Grace (853)
5. Willie Davis (850)
6. B.J. Surhoff (839)
7. Buddy Bell (838)
8. Vada Pinson (833)
9. Jose Cruz (828)
10. Julio Franco (826)
This one is fun. I had guessed Steve Garvey and Mark Grace would be comps — they shared many traits with Buckner: marginal speed, middling power, and no patience at the plate. Buckner’s career highs were 18 HRs and 39 walks. He’d usually hit around .300, finishing his career with a .289/.329/.408 slash line, 174 career HR. Buckner could run when he was young, topping out at 32 stolen bases. As he got older his legs abandoned him.
Interestingly, Buckner and Garvey both had their fist cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 1969. They remained teammates through the 1976 season. Buckner was traded to the Cubs in the winter of 1977, along with Jeff Albert and Ivan De Jesus. In return the Cubs sent back Mike Garman and Rick Monday.
Exhibit Four– Hall of Fame Voting:
Buckner became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 1996. In order to remain on the ballot a player must receive at least 5% of the vote. The results:
Finish
Name
Year on Ballot
Votes
Percent
22
Fred Lynn
1st
26
5.50%
23
Bobby Bonds
10th
24
5.10%
24
Rusty Staub
6th
24
5.10%
25
Keith Hernandez
1st
24
5.10%
26
Frank White
1st
18
3.80%
27
Dan Quisenberry
1st
18
3.80%
28
Bill Buckner
1st
10
2.10%
29
Jerry Reuss
1st
2
0.40%
30
John Tudor
1st
2
0.40%
31
Chet Lemon
1st
1
0.20%
32
Jeffrey Leonard
1st
0
0.00%
33
Johnny Ray
1st
0
0.00%
34
Claudell Washington
1st
0
0.00%
35
Bob Knepper
1st
0
0.00%
There’s a first baseman who was a contemporary of Buckner’s on the list — “I’m Keith Hernandez“. (Link is to the Youtube “JFK” Seinfeld episode.) It’s an interesting peer group. Seattle Mariners fans will remember the revolving door in LF, starring such players as Jeffrey Leonard.
Frank White really got the shaft in the voting that year.
Other Bill Buckner facts:
Buckner won the batting championship while playing for the Cubs in 1981. He led the league in doubles twice.
Buckner retired with 2715 hits. He had nearly as many career walks (450), as strikeouts (453.) These are both incredibly low totals for a 22-year career.
He was once traded for Mike Brumley and Dennis Eckersley.
I believe the picture above was taken at a sports memorabilia show — Buckner and Mookie Wilson were signing pictures together at the event. Beats working I guess.
A little something to brighten your day. I am only posting this because of the bacon reference, and yes, if I was a pig, I would probably still love bacon. This is even funnier if you are a fan of “Pearls Before Swine” and makes much more sense if you read the strips starting from 6-30-2010.
..finally appears to be over. The Angels have traded for a 3B, putting to bed one of the worst seasons I can remember for a guy who got 184 plate appearances. It was so bad that it made Griffey’s 2010 season look like Babe Ruth in his prime. In 2010, Brandon Wood posted a line of 168/185/225 (BA/OBP/SLG). Folks, that is an OPS+ of 10 (!!), lowering his career OPS+ to 26 (!!!!) in 420 plate appearances (Wood is a guy with a career 888 OPS in the minors).Wood was so bad that his OPS+ this season is the same as CC Sabathia’s and the only player with at least 150 PA that is anywhere close to Wood is Gerald Laird with an OPS+ of 41. Wood is easily the worst semi-regular in the AL this season.
I really was hoping that he would join the TTO club with Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn, I guess it just wasn’t meant to be. (If you want to know what TTO is, check back tomorrow).
Wood is still only 25, but he looks like the new poster child for a 4A player.
The front page headline on Sports Illustrated [dot] com today states that “The Dominance Is Over” for Tiger Woods. “THE STORY” links to Joe Posnanski’s excellent piece, “Writing Off Tiger.” Posnanski argues that we shouldn’t expect Tiger to be dominant again. Among Posnanski’s points:
First, he will turn 35 at the end of the year. There has been talk that this means Woods will still be in his golfing prime for the next few years, but history tells a different story. Since 1970, the average age of major championship winners is 32, and things tumble off for golfers after age 35. Fewer than a quarter of the major championship winners have been 36 or older. The only players since 1970 to win multiple majors after 35 are: Jack Nicklaus (4), Gary Player (4), Ray Floyd (2), Nick Price (2), Vijay Singh (2), Mark O’Meara (2), Angel Cabrera (2), Padraig Harrington (2).
More to the point, Woods has been dominant for a dozen years — which is a long time to dominate in golf. The greatest golfers have had a fairly short window of time when they dominate, and when that window closes, they stop winning major championships.
• Ben Hogan won all his majors from 1946 through 1953 and though he contended for years (finishing second four times in the next three years), he never won another one.
• Arnold Palmer won all his majors from 1958 through 1964.
• Tom Watson (more on him in a minute) won all his majors from 1975 through 1983.
• Sam Snead won all his majors from 1946 through 1954.
• Nick Faldo won all his majors from 1987 through 1996.
• Bobby Jones won all his majors from 1923 through 1930.
And so on. There are two notable exceptions — they are the two best old golfers of the last 50 years. Gary Player spread out his major championship victories over two decades — 1959-78. His endurance is a marvel, what makes him one of the greatest who ever lived. The other, of course, is Nicklaus, who won his first major in 1962 and his last at Augusta in 1986 when he was 46 years old. Nicklaus’ ability to overcome disappointment — from 1976 through ’83 he finished second a staggering SEVEN times — and continue to maintain his will and enthusiasm for winning is part of what makes him one of the great sportsmen of the 20th Century.
I’ve been thinking about Tiger’s layoff for a while. I remembered reading something Bill James wrote about Home Run Baker in his original Historical Baseball Abstract (published 1985.) To paraphrase: Home Run Baker was a .700+ Offensive Winning Percentage player from 1911 to 1914. (In other words, a team of Home Run Bakers would be expected to win 70%+ of their games.) Baker took the year off in 1915 due to a dispute with Philadelphia Atheltics owner Connie Mack — Baker decided playing semi-pro ball was preferable to playing for Mack. Baker returned in 1916 as a .600+ Winning Percentage player. He held that value through 1919. Baker retired for a year following the 1919 season. Upon his return to baseball in 1920 he was a .500+ Winning Percentage player.
James’ point, and I think there’s something to this idea, is that when world-class performers voluntarily take time off it’s incredibly difficult for them to recapture what made them great in the first place.
I believe we may be looking at that now with Tiger Woods.
—————–
Home Run Baker’s OPS+ By Year, 100 is league average:
The recipe is basically Mark Bittman’s, from How To Cook Everything, 10th Anniversary Edition. I used french bread that I’d made the day before. The bread hadn’t risen like I would have liked — it wound up relatively too dense to use as “bread”, so I repurposed it into these crostini.
The plate is in focus. The food, not so much.
This crostini recipe didn’t quite use up all of the bread I’d made — the remaining bread became Bittman’s French Toast. The French toast was also quite good. That book has yet to let me down.
The crostini ingredients:
8” of
Baugette, cut into 1/2” rounds
15 oz can or
Whole Tomatoes, seeded and diced
6 large
Roma Tomatoes, seeded and diced
10 large
Basil Leaves, chiffonade
4 TBP
Blue Cheese, in small pieces
2 TBP
Pecorino Romano, in small pieces
1 clove
Garlic, minced
Sea Salt or Kosher Salt
Extra Virgin Olive Oil for brushing
Garlic clove cut in half
I used canned tomatoes in this recipe and it went over well. Roma tomatoes would be good too. My advice would be to go with whatever you have on hand.
Directions:
Place the tomatoes in a colander and drain for a few minutes. Heat broiler and adjust the rack to 4″ from the heat. Place the bread onto a cookie sheet or equivalent. Lightly brush the bread slices on both sides with olive oil. Place the cookie sheet under the broiler to lightly brown the first side of the bread. (This will take 2-4 minutes.) Turn and brown the other side. Don’t walk away from the bread while it’s under the broiler, as the bread will go from “toasty” to “setting off the fire alarm” in about 30 seconds. Rub the crostini with the halved garlic clove.
Combine the tomato, basil, cheeses, minced garlic, and the two tablespoons of olive oil. Mix to combine and salt to taste (about 1/2 tsp). Distribute the tomato mixture on the crostini rounds. Finish with a drizzle of olive oil.
As for what happens when you get wrapped up in taking pictures and forget about the bread under the broiler…
FlatbreadGarden 