By Blaidd Drwg
What a difference a week makes – thanks to a 2-8 record by the Red Sox over the last 10 games, paired with a 3 game sweep of the Sox by the Rays and a run by the Angels, we have us a wild card race in the AL.
The standings as of this morning look like this:
Team W-L GB
Red Sox 85-61 —
Rays 82-64 3.0
Angels 80-67 5.5
The Angels still have a better shot at winning their division than the Wild Card, but I put them in here because they were on a roll and you never know what will happen in the last couple weeks of the season.
It is still an uphill climb for the Rays. The Sox don’t have an easy schedule to end the season, but they do have 4 left against the Rays, all at Fenway, where the Sox have the best record in the AL, but then again, the Rays don’t exactly have a cakewalk either. Here are the remaining schedules:
| Red Sox | Rays | ||||
| Remaining Home | Remaining Road | Remaining Home | Remaining Road | ||
| Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yankees | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Orioles | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
The interesting part of the remaining schedule for the Rays is that their 10 remaining road games are all over the next 11 days – that is right, they get to play the Red Sox at Fenway for 4 games and then the Yankees for 4 right after that. They do have an off day between the series, but the Yankees games do include a double header on the 21st.
With all of the scheduling craziness and inter-divisional games, it could be a very interesting last 2 and a half weeks of the season in the AL east. Let the games begin.
FlatbreadGarden 
Current Coolstandings playoff odds:
Red Sox 10.9 div, 75.8 WC = 86.7%
Rays 1.0 div, 12.2 WC = 12.3%
Angels 11.6 div, 0.5 WC = 12.1%
Or, to put it another way:
CENTRAL
Detroit has locked up the Central, nobody else in the Central has a shot at the playoffs.
EAST
Yakees are 88.0 div, 11.3 WC = 99.4%
Red Sox 10.9 div, 75.8 WC = 86.7%
Rays 1.0 div, 12.2 WC = 12.3%
WEST
Rangers 88.4 div, 0.2 WC = 88.6%
Angels 11.6 div, 0.5 WC = 12.1%
I think it’s interesting that the Angels have less than a 1% chance for the WC, and that the Rays have no shot (1.0%) at the East division title.
Basically, the Angels and Rays each have a 1/8 chance for the playoffs. The Rays would get there by overtaking the Red Sox, and the Angels would get there by overtaking the Rangers. Not a lot of wiggle room otherwise.
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I am most concerned about the Yankees/Rays series at the end of the Month. If the Yankees have already clinched after playing the Sox and there is still a race between the Sox and the Rays, I would be concerned about the Yankees rolling over and playing dead, letting the Rays sweep the last 3.
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