The Fungibility of Relievers

By Blaidd Drwg

I saw on ESPN this morning that old friend, Ryan Franklin, was released by the Cardinals. Two years ago, Franklin saved 38 games, had a 1.92 ERA and was an All-Star. In 2010, Franklin saved 27 and had a 1.03 WHIP. This season? Franklin had 4 blown saves in 5 chances, a 1.84 WHIP and 8.46 ERA.

This got me thinking – unless you are talking about a guy like Mariano Rivera, most closers are pretty fungible. In most cases, you will see a closer go down or start to fail for a team and the team is able to find a replacement in house who is as good or even better than the guy who he is replacing. That fungibility is something that causes me to scratch my head when the Red Sox go out and sign Bobby Jenks for $6 million a year to be a setup guy or the Yankees paying $10 million to Rafael Soriano to do the same.

Here are the teams that currently have a different closer than it started with in 2011:

Half way through the season and that is 9 out of 30 teams that currently have a different closer than they started the season with and that doesn’t even count the Phillies again who actually had to replace their replacement closer, Ryan Madson, who got hurt, Kansas City who replaced Jokim Soria for a week when he couldn’t get anyone out (Soria is their closer once again), or the Phillies, Giants and Mariners who all had their projected opening day closer (Lidge, Wilson and Aardsma) go down with an injury in spring training. In just about every case on the list, the current closer is putting up comparable or better numbers than the guy he replaced.

Are you sensing a theme with the Phillies yet? They have managed to survive the loss of their closer and his replacement and still have the best record in MLB. Yes, their starters help that greatly, but they still need to protect those 8th and 9th inning leads. Generally, every team has a couple “closers in waiting” stashed either somewhere in their bullpen or in the minors that can be called up at a moment’s notice.

Frankly, the save is probably the most overrated stat in baseball. In most cases, a closer is coming in for 1 inning with no one on base and a couple run lead. You have to be pretty bad to blow that. For the 6-8 games a year where you need to “save” the game (i.e. coming in with the tying or winning run on base) with your closer, the difference in success rates between Mariano Rivera and Ryan Franklin is not as great as you might think.