It’s A Slippery Slope

by A.J. Coltrane

LaDainian Tomlinson will join the NFL Hall of Fame after he retires, and his retirement is probably coming up soon.

Here are Tomlinson’s Career Yards Per Carry, season by season:

Tomlinson’s Yards Per Carry declined steadily after his age 27 season  —  four years ago he averaged 5.2 yards per carry.  Since then his average carry dropped to 4.7 yards, then to 3.8, bottoming out at 3.3.

At that point the Chargers had seen enough, and they released him …  Running backs don’t stay employed for long while averaging under about 4.0 yards per carry.

The Jets decided he could still play and signed him to a two-year deal.

Tomlinson started this season going gangbusters for the Jets.  Television analysts were saying things like “He hasn’t run this well in years!” or “He looks like the LT of old again!”

That lasted four or five games:

Note the helpful “trend line.”

Fortunately for Tomlinson, he started well enough that his season average sits at 4.3 yards per carry — even after a six-game stretch of fewer than 4 yards per attempt.  I’ll be interested to see if  Tomlinson plays next year, and if so, how much the team lets him handle the ball.  My suspicion is that he’s basically a 3rd down back at this point in his career, and the Jets have tried to use him as an every-down back — a role he can’t capably fill anymore.

Great career though.  He’s 6th all-time in career rushing yards, 2nd in rushing touchdowns, and 7th all-time in total yards from scrimmage.