March Showers Bring April Flowers*…

By Blaidd Drwg

Or do they?

Remember back a few weeks ago when I posted about the Mariners spring training stats and why you should not get excited about them. Well, 3 weeks into the season, the Mariners are 14th in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. Remember when Brandon Maurer made the team with a nifty 1.50 ERA in the desert? He is currently sporting a 9.94 ERA in the bigs. Exactly why you don’t get excited about spring stats.

Rob Neyer wrote an interesting article about this very subject concerning Red Sox prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. It is a good read, but he has a great piece of wisdom about baseball’s March numbers:

Spring-training statistics are a lot of fun, but they’re merely a snapshot in time, and they describe the random nature of raw performance statistics as much as they describe fundamental abilities.

Basically making an assumption about how a player will perform over a season is about as useful as pulling a random block of 60 at-bats to do the same.

 

* I know that is not the saying, but it makes my point so I am going with it

The Mariners and Their Spring Training Offense

The Mariners offense is lighting it up in Spring Training! They lead the majors with 43 home runs and are second in total runs scored. It is time to get excited!!

Nah, if you are getting excited about the Mariners offensive barrage, just remember 2 things – those games are being played in 80 degree weather at 2000 feet, where the ball really tends to carry (as opposed to 45 degrees and sea level which is pretty much Seattle in April and May), and SPRING TRAINING STATS ARE RARELY AN INDICATION OF REGULAR SEASON PERFORMANCE. Spring Training stats usually involve a ton of at bats against guys who will not make the majors or are trying to work out some stuff, which leads to more offense. You doubt me – here is the last 4 seasons with a monthly breakdown for the M’s hitters. I included 2009 since that was the last season the Mariners hitters were not historically bad.

The ugly truth after the jump.

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