Tag: mariners

Swing and a Miss

By Blaidd Drwg

It was a good week for pitchers in the strikeout department:

On Wednesday, Doug Fister set an AL record when he recorded 9 consecutive strikeouts. He broke the record of 8, which had been done by several pitchers, most recently by Blake Stein (!) in 2001. He didn’t quite make it to the MLB record, which is 10, held by Tom Seaver.

On Tuesday, the Oakland A’s set an AL record for hitters strikeouts in a season with 7 games left on their schedule. The A’s batters swung past the Tampa Bay Rays 2007 total with their 1,325th K. They will end up obliterating the AL record. They still have a way to go to set the major league mark – that is 1,529 set by the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

On Monday, the Angles showed us just how bad the Mariners can be by tying a MLB record by striking out 20 Mariner hitters in a 9 inning game in a 5-4 victory. Zach Grienke struck out 13 in just 5 innings before giving way to a parade of reliever who fanned 7 over the final 4 innings of the game. With all of those strikeouts, the Angles did somehow manage to put Miguel Olivo down on strikes only once in his 4 plate appearances (even more shocking – Olivo had 3 hits in the game).

And Down the Stretch They Come…

By Blaidd Drwg

The NL has 4 of its 5 playoff spots finalized, with only the 2nd wild card still remaining. Even then, the Cardinals have a 3 game lead over the Dodgers with 6 games remaining, making it unlikely that the Dodgers will catch the Redbirds.

The AL is a different story – no one has actually clinched a playoff spot and it could be an interesting last week of the season. Going into Friday’s games, the Yankees lead the east by 1, the Tigers lead the central by 2 and the Rangers lead the west by 4. The wild card also has races, with the Orioles 1 game ahead of the A’s for the first spot and the A’s 2 games ahead of the Angels and Rays for the 2nd spot.

Here is how this is going to play out:
East:
Yankees have 6 games left – 3 at Toronto and 3 vs. Boston. They are in the best position to win the division since they play the two worst teams in the division and neither Boston nor Toronto is playing particularly well right now. As much as I know the Red Sox would like to spoil the Yankees playoff chances, I don’t think it will happen. I see the Yankees taking 5 of the 6 to win the division.

Orioles have 6 games left – 3 vs. Boston and 3 at Tampa.
Rays have 6 games left – 3 at Chicago and 3 vs. Baltimore.
The final TB-Baltimore series could really put a monkey wrench in the playoff chances for one of the two teams. Both the O’s and the Rays are hot and they both need to sweep their weekend series. It is entirely possible that both of these teams could make it to the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do.

Central:
Last week, the White Sox had a 3 game lead in the division. This week, they are trailing the Tigers by 2.
The White Sox need to take at least 2 out of three from the Rays (they really need a sweep) and then sweep the Indians in their last series. Why? Well the Tigers benefit from the most favorable remaining schedule of all the contenders – the have 3 at KC and finish with 3 vs. Minnesota. That is going to make it very tough on the Sox.

West:
The Rangers are in the driver’s seat, but by no means have it locked. They play 3 vs. the Angels and 3 at Oakland. Basically if they take 2 out of 3 from the Halos, the Rangers win the division and the Angels go home for the season.

The A’s are playing the Mariners for 3 and then finish with the Rangers. They really need to sweep the M’s and hope that either the Rangers fell apart against the Angels or have won the division and decided to monkey with their rotation to get it set for the playoffs. The A’s are a longshot to win the division but are in a pretty good spot for a wild card, even with their all-rookie rotation.

The Angels just basically need to win out against the Rangers and the Mariners. It could mean that there is meaningful baseball played in Safeco field in October, just not for the Mariners.

My Prediction:
East Winner: Yankees
Central Winner: Tigers
West Winner: Rangers
Wild Card 1: Orioles
Wild Card 2: A’s

Depending on everyone’s final record and how the wild card standings finish, you could actually end up with this nightmare scenario:

Oakland wins the 2nd wild card and flies to Baltimore, arriving sometime in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday

Oakland at Baltimore for the wild card game on Friday if Baltimore ends up with the best wild card record.

New York at Baltimore for the ALDS on Sunday if NY ends up with the best record.

MLB has decided in its infinite wisdom that the team with the best record gets to play the wild card winner (great), but the series format is 2 games at the WC winner and 3 at the Division Winner. So, the Yankees might not know that the need to get on a flight to Oakland until late Friday night. As much as I hate the Yankees, I don’t understand how that makes any sense. It probably negates any advantage they gain from playing the wild card winner. Of course, this gets much more interesting if there is a tie anywhere and we need a playoff to determine the winner.

The Curious Case of Aaron Cook

By Bliadd Drwg

Earlier in September, the Red Sox came limping into Seattle, for a pillow fight series against the Mariners. Things have been so bad for the Red Sox this season; they actually had a worse record than the Mariners on September 3rd, the first game of the season. Normally the Red Sox are a big draw – historically pulling 30,000+ for a weekday series. This year, not so much. The beautiful Labor Day afternoon game drew a whopping 21,000 and the Tuesday and Wednesday games drew 12,700 and 13,000 respectively (although it seemed like there were less people at the Wednesday game).

That Wednesday game, the Red Sox brought out starter Aaron Cook, sporting a stellar 5.35 ERA before that start. What made it more interesting for me were his strikeout and walk stats – entering the game, Cook had struck out 11, walked 12 and given up 10 home runs…in 70.2 innings. That translates into less than 2 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. That, my friends, is a truly pathetic total. Cook has always been an extreme ground ball pitcher, which probably explains his success when he pitched for Colorado, despite striking out only 3.7 batters per nine. To put that into perspective, my favorite soft tosser, Jamie Moyer averaged 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings over his career.  It is hard to survive as a MLB pitcher with a number as low as Cook has posted, but he has somehow managed to do it.

I bring this up for a couple of reasons. First, I wondered if there had been any pitcher who made it through 100 innings and gave up more home runs than strikeouts. I haven’t bothered to look that up yet, so that is for another post. Second, those extremely low numbers set up one of the more bizarre pitching outings I have seen from a truly statistical standpoint.

Coming into the Mariners game, Cook had made 13 starts. Here is the aggregate on the number of strikeouts and walks he has registered per game:

 

# of Strikeouts Times # of Walks Times
0 7 0 5
1 3 1 6
2 2 3 2
4 1

 

So Cook managed to strike out 2 or less in 12 out of his first 13 starts. Enter the Seattle game. He gets on a roll early, striking out Trayvon Robinson in the first, meaning his K total exceeds half his previous starts, one inning into the game. In the second, he gets Eric Thames looking, and I am waiting for the plague of locusts to descend on the stadium; two strike outs in two innings? Someone obviously took Aaron Cook’s place on the mound.

The third inning is where it gets really strange. Dustin Ackley leads off and strikes out swinging. At this point I am ready to head for cover as it was due to start raining blood any minute. Trayvon Robinson again strikes out and I am fully expecting the second coming at this point. What are the chances that Aaron Cook, who has struck out 11 batters all season, will actually strike out the side? Pretty good actually. After a couple of walks (more on those in a minute), Jesus Montero struck out swinging to end the inning. The 5K’s in the first 3 innings would be all Cook would get – he would pitch 3 more innings without recording another strikeout.

What’s so interesting about the walks? Well, it means that a guy who has batters put the ball in play 91% of the time, managed to face 5 batters, record 3 outs and not a single one of them managed to put a ball in play.

You never know what you are going to have happen when you come to the ballpark on any given day.

Ichiro and His Trade to the Yankees

By Blaidd Drwg

At the time the Mariners traded Ichiro to the Yankees, I will be honest, I had absolutely no idea why the Yankees would have wanted him. They were pretty set in the outfield and really didn’t need a DH, so the trade seemed odd, especially since Ichiro has struggled over the last 2 season, particularly against left handed pitching. Something that did not get widely reported by the media in Seattle was this little detail of the deal from ESPN.com:

Before completing a trade to acquire the Japanese star, the Yankees spelled out a list of conditions to Ichiro, a former American League MVP and two-time batting champion.

Ichiro would be asked to switch positions, hit at the bottom of the lineup and possibly sit against left-handed pitching.

Ichiro knows his career is coming to an end and he is probably desperate to win a World Series title and the Yankees are his best hope for doing that this season. I found it very interesting that the Yankees scouting has noticed exactly what I have about Ichiro this season:

He can no longer play above average defense in right field.
He isn’t a top of the lineup hitter considering his sub .300 OBP.
He is cheating on fastballs against left handers and can’t hit them effectively anymore.
He has slowed down (there has been a huge drop in the number of infield hits he has had over the last 2 seasons).

The move to the Yankees has not really helped either – Ichrio had slash totals of 261/288/353 with the Mariners and 265/296/368 with the Yankees, translating to an OPS= of 82 with the Mariners and 77 with the Yankees. His time with the Yankees has been bizarre: he hit in 16 out of his first 17 games with them, but managed to only produce 2 multi-hit games. The Yankees have generally batted him in the bottom third of the lineup and have sat him the last 2 games against a lefty starting pitcher.

I have never been a huge Ichiro fan, but he was a fun and frustrating player to watch and I would love to see him win a championship. I suspect that if he does this season, he will call it quits and in 5 years become the first Japanese inductee into Cooperstown. If he does not, I bet he takes a part time role with a contender to try again next season. I think that even Ichiro has realized that he has reached the end of the line. He is currently 449 hits away from 3000 and I just don’t think he has enough left in the tank to get there.

The Mariners and Royals

By Blaidd Drwg

Before you get too excited about the Mariners taking 3 out of 4 against the Royals and putting up 31 runs in the process, the Royals probably have the worst starting rotation in the majors. Let’s take a look at the guys who the Mariners faced in the 4 game series:

Game 1: Jonathan Sanchez (current ERA – 7.76) Pitching line – 1.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER
Sanchez, once a rising star in the Giants organization, fell completely off a cliff this season, walking 44 guys in 53 innings and sporting a stellar 2.04 WHIP. Things got so bad with Sanchez that the Royals designated him for assignment after this disastrous start against the Mariners (Yet somehow the Rockies had enough interest in him to trade a somewhat useful player for him on Friday).

Game 2: Ryan Verdugo (current ERA – 32.40) Pitching line – 1.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER
Verdugo was making his MLB Debut in this game. He was the “other guy” the Royals got with Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera. Verdugo is 25 and had not pitched particularly well in the minors in his career and never above AAA before this season; was his debut line much of a surprise?

Game 3: Bruce Chen (current ERA – 5.57) Pitching line – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER
The “ACE” of the Royals staff. He pitched somewhat decently; I will put heavy emphasis on somewhat, because frankly, that is not a good pitching line. But heck, it can’t be that bad, the Royals actually won that game

Game 4: Will Smith (current ERA – 7.97) Pitching line – 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER
Smith wasn’t terrible, but he was going against Felix, so he wasn’t winning that game no matter how well he pitched. At least in Smith’s defense, he is only 22 and seems to have some upside potential. Then again, he does pitch for the Royals, so maybe not.

Speaking of Felix, he dispatched the Royals, needing just 89 pitches over 8 innings before giving way to Lucas Luetge in the 9th. Felix is in the zone right now – he is dominant and he is being economical with his pitches. He has given up only 2 ER in his last 24.2 innings. It might have something to do with the 21 strikeouts and his amazing Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio – 36 GB to 23 FB. I am not sure what adjustment he made, but he is back to getting guys out on the ground. Over his career his ration has been 1.24 to 1 GB to FB, this year is has been .9 to 1 GB to FB. Welcome back, Felix.

Is the End Near for Methusela?

By Blaidd Drwg

The ‘real’ Methuselah rookie card. I am not sure he was old enough to drive when that picture was taken. Heck, I am not sure they had cars when that picture was taken.

I think it is time for Jamie Moyer to hang it up. He has had an interesting career and a strange ride this season:

  • Signed minor league contract with the Rockies in the off-season with an invite to spring training.
  • Makes the Rockies opening day roster.
  • Pitches poorly (like anyone is surprised that this happened) with the Rockies and is released.
  • Signed by the Orioles and assigned to AAA.
  • Pitches pretty well but the Orioles are not planning on calling him up, so he is released.
  • Signed by the Blue Jays and assigned to AAA.
  • Pitches poorly in AAA and is released by the Jays.

The Rockies have been so bad that their starters have an ERA somewhere around 7 this season, so that gives you an idea how bad Moyer was in Colorado. That is not really a surprise – a guy who tends to give up a ton of fly balls pitching in the best hitters park in the league, well, you get the idea.

I will admit, the Orioles release was a bit of a surprise – Moyer pitched well at AAA Norfolk, but the Orioles wanted to go in a different direction, so they released him. The funny thing is, the Orioles have actually demoted 3 of their starting pitchers since Moyer was released.

The Blue Jays experiment was also no surprise – Moyer pitching in the PCL, at altitude, in a small ballpark; that is Colorado part 2.

I haven’t seen any indication that Moyer is ready to give it up. I bet he is just waiting for someone to need an arm and give him a call. I honestly think he is done, but teams might get desperate

What I really would like to see when Moyer is ready to hang it up, is to sign with the Mariners. Not just a symbolic deal – I want to see him sign a deal where he starts one final game at Safeco Field, has an agreement with the opposing team to throw one pitch for a strike where the batter won’t swing and then pull him out of the game and have him walk off the mound to a standing ovation from a sold out crowd.

I think that would be a fitting career end for a pitcher that had one of the most improbable careers I have ever seen.

Welcome Back, Carlos Peguero

By Blaidd Drwg

The Mariners are starting to play musical chairs with their roster. The inconsistent Hector Noesi has bought himself a Sounder ticket to Tacoma and is being replaced in the rotation by Hisashi Iwakuma. I don’t particularly like Iwakuma, but with the All Star break looming, you don’t need to worry about your #5 starter for a couple of weeks.

Carlos Peguero is being recalled to replace Noesi. While I thought they needed to call up another OF when Guti went on the DL, they called up a pitcher, then Saunders came down with the flu, meaning we got to see Chone Figgins start for 5 games. Peguero has all of the makings of a 4A player – he has been killing the ball in the minors (this season to the tune of 18 HR is 49 games with a 1002 OPS) but he has huge holes in his swing and doesn’t have any plate discipline. This year he has 18 unintentional walks in 212 plate appearances, which would be pretty average in the majors (about 50 walks in 600 PA) but considering that number would deflate about 25% in the majors, you are talking about a guy who would probably draw about 35 walks over the course of the season. Look, strikeouts are not inherently bad – Adam Dun has struck out in nearly 50% of his AB this season and is batting 220, but he also is second in the AL in HR and has an OBP of 370, which is pretty darn good.

Peguero looked lost in his callup to the Mariners last season and I don’t see any reason to think he will have all of a sudden figured out how to hit MLB pitching in the meantime.

While you hope that his callup would inject some pop into the Mariners lineup, where exactly is he going to play? Peguero is a LF/DH type and a left handed bat. The Mariners roster seems to be riddled with those right now. Here are a few ways I see this playing out, in the order I see as most likely (I also make the assumption that Guti is on the DL for longer than expected – until at least after the AS break):

  • Peguero is mostly used as a PH and gets the occasional start and is back in Tacoma by July 20th.
  • Peguero takes most of the AB that are going to Montero at DH and Montero finds himself in Tacoma (this is what Geoff Baker thinks will happen) or on the DL.
  • Peguero is in a platoon with Casper Wells in left. I would assume that you would want Wells, one of 2 guys who have an OBP above 325 on the roster, in the lineup regularly, so he becomes your full time DH.

I also wonder if sending Montero down will mean that we could be seeing Danny Hultzen making his MLB debut sometime this month.

How to Properly Deploy a Closer

By Blaidd Drwg

Scott Downs is the closer for the Angels. This is not really news. The Angles have about 5 guys they can mix and match in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings of a game they have the lead in, but Downs is the only left handed reliever of the bunch.

In the sweep of the Mariner recently, Downs picked up 2 saves in 3 appearances, which is also not news. What is news is how Mike Scioscia used Scott Downs, particularly in the appearance where he did not have a save.

In the Friday game, the Mariners blew a 4-3 lead in the top of the 9th, so naturally the closer comes in for the bottom of the 9th and shuts the door. Game over and a pretty common use for the closer. Sunday was pretty similar with Downs pitching in the 9th with a 4-2 lead and closing it out.

Saturday is where it gets interesting. The Angels have a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 7th. The Mariners used a very lefty-heavy lineup that game. Jordan Walden starts the inning and walks lefty Mike Carp, strikes out righty Brendan Ryan (Carp stole 2nd during the AB) and lefty Dustin Ackley. At this point, Scioscia makes a move which was shocking – he brings in Scott Downs to face Ichiro. I don’t know if Scioscia is playing the percentages here (Ichiro was 2-3 career against Waldon and 5-17 career against Downs, but I know, sample size), or just didn’t have Downs ready to face Ackley (Ackley has a career OPS that is about 150 points lower against lefties that righties), but it worked, Ichiro bounced out to the pitcher and ended the inning.

Downs then came back out to pitch the 8th, giving up a single to Kyle Seager before retiring Smoak and Jaso. That brought up everybody’s favorite Miguel Olivo. Once again playing the percentages, Scioscia replaced the lefty Downs with righty Ernesto Frieri (who has been extraordinarily lights out since a trade to LA – 12 IP, 0 hits allowed, 25 strikeouts- no that is not a misprint). Frieri made Olivo look bad in striking him out to end the inning. Frieri blew through the M’s lineup in the 9th to end the game.

When was the last time that a manager had the sense to bring in the guy he considered his best reliever for the situation (Downs), who happened to be the closer, in a clutch situation in the 7th inning? It is something the Yankees did with Goose Gossage in the 1970’s and I seem to remember a few instances with the Royals doing it with Dan Quisenberry in the 1980’s, but that is about it.

The thing is, Scioscia did it again against the Yankees – he brought Downs in with a runner on 1st in the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead. The Yankees had Cano (Lefty), Texeiria (Switch Hitter) and Ibanez (Lefty) due up. Downs got out of the inning and was going to start the 9th when the Yankees pinch hit right handed hitter Jason Nix for lefty Eric Chavez. Downs was replaced with Ernesto Frieri in the 9th, when the Yankees had 2 right handed hitters following Nix and no other left handed bat on the bench. Frieri managed to load up the bases but got out of the jam to save the game.

Say what you want about Scioscia, I give him credit for using the pitcher he perceived to be best for the situation instead of leaving his closer on the bench for the 9th inning and potentially losing the game.

Redemption and a Witness to Perfection

By Blaidd Drwg

The aftermath of perfection as viewed from my seat.

I wrote recently about missing out on seeing Derek Lowe’s no hitter in 2002. I actually wrote that piece over a month ago, before April 21st happened. What is so special about April 21st? It happens to be the day the Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox threw the 21st perfect game in MLB history against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. It was a day game, so the person who has the tickets in the seats next to mine only needed one of her tickets and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted the other one. My wife’s sister, a big Mariners fan, was interested and joined us – and I am sure that it was something that she won’t regret, ever.

In the 400 or so baseball games I have witnessed, I have seen several no-hitters get broken up with 2 outs in the 8th inning and two get broken up in the ninth. Sitting through a no-hitter, let alone a perfect game, is tough since it could end with one bad bounce, especially if the pitcher throwing the no-no is on the opposing team. I have seen triple plays, 3 home run games, players hitting for the cycle, Ichiro setting the single season hit record, and Rafael Palmeiro’s 3000th hit but never a 9 inning no hitter.

My rule is this – if there is a no-hitter at the start of the 8th inning, you start rooting for that pitcher, regardless of who he plays for, which is exactly what I did on April 21st. It was pretty obvious looking at the scoreboard that Humber had not given up a hit, but I am not sure how many of the 22,000 fans at the game realized that he had not given up anything. He was cruising; his pitch count was in the low 70’s going into the 8th inning and he really looked dominating. The Mariners, not exactly sporting a lineup that would remind anyone of Murder’s Row, sent Smoak, Seager and Montero up to bat in the 8th. Humber retired the side on 11 pitches. You could almost cut the tension with a knife.

I believe the Mariners did something in the top of the 9th (I can’t prove it) that I thought was a little unsportsmanlike – with Steve Delabar on the mound, they seemed to take a huge amount of time between pitches. Like I said, I can’t prove it, but it seemed that way and I wonder if Wedge was trying to leave Humber on the bench longer to get into his head. It actually almost worked.

Humber came out in the 9th and looked shaky – he went 3-0 on Michael Saunders before striking him out. At this point, my stomach was in knots. Most people were pulling for Humber at this point, and you would hate to see him lose the perfect game because his control deserted him all of a sudden. He looked better on Jaso, getting him to fly out on 3 pitches. That left Brendan Ryan as the only thing between Humber and a perfect game. It was an ugly at bat, one that made me hold my breath on every pitch. Humber got ahead of Ryan 1-2. Just one more strike. If I was Ryan, I would have been swinging at anything close, just because I wouldn’t want to be the last out in a perfect game. The next 2 pitches missed badly and all of a sudden, we are sitting with a full count, 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. No pressure on Humber there. Ryan fouled the next pitch off. The tension was incredible. Then Humber threw an ugly breaking ball in the dirt that Ryan checked his swing on. The home plate umpire ruled he went around (from my vantage point behind home plate, it looked like he checked the swing) and the ball went past AJ Pierzynski to the backstop. At this point I am yelling “throw it to first”. Pierzynski is not exactly a fast man but fortunately for Humber, Ryan took 2 steps toward first and then turned back to argue with the umpire. Had he run, he would have easily beaten the throw to first, breaking up the perfect game and leaving the no hitter intact with Chone Figgins on deck. I firmly believe that if Figgins had come up, the baseball gods would have conspired to end Humber’s no hit bid.

So instead of a potentially heartbreaking situation, or at least one of the most bizarre ways that a perfect game would have been broken up, we got to witness perfection, even if it may have been questionably so.