Tag: mariners

March Showers Bring April Flowers*…

By Blaidd Drwg

Or do they?

Remember back a few weeks ago when I posted about the Mariners spring training stats and why you should not get excited about them. Well, 3 weeks into the season, the Mariners are 14th in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. Remember when Brandon Maurer made the team with a nifty 1.50 ERA in the desert? He is currently sporting a 9.94 ERA in the bigs. Exactly why you don’t get excited about spring stats.

Rob Neyer wrote an interesting article about this very subject concerning Red Sox prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. It is a good read, but he has a great piece of wisdom about baseball’s March numbers:

Spring-training statistics are a lot of fun, but they’re merely a snapshot in time, and they describe the random nature of raw performance statistics as much as they describe fundamental abilities.

Basically making an assumption about how a player will perform over a season is about as useful as pulling a random block of 60 at-bats to do the same.

 

* I know that is not the saying, but it makes my point so I am going with it

The Slugging Houston Astros

By Blaidd Drwg

How bad did it get for the Mariners Tuesday night? Well they lost to Houston 16-9:  This is the  same Astros team that had not won since opening day and in their previous 7 games racked up these overwhelming totals:

Runs – 17
Home Runs – 2
Walks – 10
Hits – 46

So of course, Tuesday they hang 16 Runs, 5 Home Runs, 6 Walks and 22 Hits on Mariners pitchers. I have an upcoming post on just how bad Houston actually is, so check that out tomorrow.

The M’s also drew a stellar 10,700 for a game that was played on a nice evening, which was right about what I figured they would draw for the game, although I am sure that the number of people who showed up was far less.

In the meantime, I think that young Brandon Mauer may have just pitched himself back to Tacoma, as he gave up 6 runs in just 2/3 of an inning in his second start. After sporting a nifty 1.50 ERA during spring training, he now has an ugly 16.20 ERA in real games. This is why I put no faith in spring training numbers. He is 23, so I think it is time to send him down and bring someone else up before his confidence is completely destroyed. My guess is that Jeremy Bonderman is called up to fill the spot until May when we see Danny Hultzen make his debut.

“…And It Feels Alright…”

By Blaidd Drwg

This isn’t really that interesting a story, but I found it to be rather cool that Mariners scout, Alex Smith, made an appearance in Bull Durham without knowing it for 25 years.

As it turns out, a real-world baseball card, Smith’s 1987 Durham Bulls ProCards release, got some screen time as a bookmark used by Annie Savoy as she decided to read Walt Whitman poetry to Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh.

And Smith, now the Northeast Scouting Supervisor for the Seattle Mariners, had no idea.
“I received your message, ironically on my birthday,” said Smith, who turned 50 on Monday. “What a unique, interesting gift to find out my baseball card was used in the movie. Never knew that! My initial thoughts? Pretty cool!”

Oh, the real reason for this post is to just include my favorite song from the movie: “I Got Loaded” by Los Lobos.

"…And It Feels Alright…"

By Blaidd Drwg

This isn’t really that interesting a story, but I found it to be rather cool that Mariners scout, Alex Smith, made an appearance in Bull Durham without knowing it for 25 years.

As it turns out, a real-world baseball card, Smith’s 1987 Durham Bulls ProCards release, got some screen time as a bookmark used by Annie Savoy as she decided to read Walt Whitman poetry to Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh.

And Smith, now the Northeast Scouting Supervisor for the Seattle Mariners, had no idea.
“I received your message, ironically on my birthday,” said Smith, who turned 50 on Monday. “What a unique, interesting gift to find out my baseball card was used in the movie. Never knew that! My initial thoughts? Pretty cool!”

Oh, the real reason for this post is to just include my favorite song from the movie: “I Got Loaded” by Los Lobos.

The Mariners and Their Spring Training Offense

The Mariners offense is lighting it up in Spring Training! They lead the majors with 43 home runs and are second in total runs scored. It is time to get excited!!

Nah, if you are getting excited about the Mariners offensive barrage, just remember 2 things – those games are being played in 80 degree weather at 2000 feet, where the ball really tends to carry (as opposed to 45 degrees and sea level which is pretty much Seattle in April and May), and SPRING TRAINING STATS ARE RARELY AN INDICATION OF REGULAR SEASON PERFORMANCE. Spring Training stats usually involve a ton of at bats against guys who will not make the majors or are trying to work out some stuff, which leads to more offense. You doubt me – here is the last 4 seasons with a monthly breakdown for the M’s hitters. I included 2009 since that was the last season the Mariners hitters were not historically bad.

The ugly truth after the jump.

Continue reading “The Mariners and Their Spring Training Offense” →

The US Provisional Roster for the WBC

By Blaidd Drwg

I like the idea of the World Baseball Classic, but I really can’t get into it. Because it is held during spring training and there are limits on the pitchers, it seems like it is watching either a spring training game or an all-star game.

Historically, the US team has really not taken the tournament seriously, and has sported a less than stellar 7-7 record in the previous two events. This is partially because the managers have treated this like an all-star game and felt the need to get everyone in the game rather than trying to win. The rosters were announced recently and a good number of big names, especially on the US side (Trout, Posey and Verlander, just to name a few), have opted not to participate.
Right now, this is the projected US lineup:

RF Ben Zobrist
C Joe Mauer
LF Ryan Braun
DH Giancarlo Stanton
3B David Wright
1B Mark Teixeira
CF Adam Jones
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Brandon Phillips

That is pretty good, but not as good as it could be. The pitching staff is a little suspect though:

Starter: RA Dickey, Kris Medlen, Ryan Vogelsong and Derek Holland.
Bullpen: Jeremy Affeldt, Mitchell Boggs, Steve Cishek, Tim Collins, Luke Gregerson, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Perez, Glen Perkins and Vinnie Pestano.

The bench however is soft:
Jonathan Lucroy, J.P. Arencibia, Shane Victorino and Willie Bloomquist.

The US is having such a hard time convincing players to participate that they didn’t fill one spot on the roster AND needed to get Willie Bloomquist to fill the super-utility role. That is never a good sign.

The Mariners are sending 9 players to the tournament – mostly minor leaguers. There are 3 of concern – Felix Hernandez (for injury concerns), Michael Saunders and Alex Liddi. To me, the move does not make sense for Saunders and Liddi – the Mariners have an extremely crowded roster since they have more players than positions in the OF, 1B and DH slots. Liddi is 24 and should have a legitimate shot at making the big club and I fully believe that this is the put-up or shut-up season for Saunders after his up and down season last year. By neither of these guys being in camp with the Mariners, it just means that there is an opportunity for someone else to step up and take a roster spot away from them. I understand all of the country pride and everything, but since neither of these guys is guaranteed a job with the big club this year, it might be in their best interest to skip the tournament and play with the team in AZ.

Justin Upton and His No-Trade Clause

By Blaidd Drwg

I honestly believe the Mariners are trying to get better, just not trying as hard as they should. Once again they don’t do anything in the free agent market (although I still think they are going to ultimately sign Michael Bourn to a Chone Figgins like contract and get Chone Figgins like production) and their big trade this off-season was Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales, which succeeded in making the logjam at C-1B-DH even worse.

I read recently that they made a pitch for the D’Backs Justin Upton. They supposedly offered a “substantial package” to the Diamondbacks (I am guessing at least one of Paxton-Walker-Hultzen and probably Nick Franklin and some other prospects) for the 25 year old OF, who is under contract until the end of 2015 at an average salary of $13 million per season, but the trade was rejected by Upton, who currently has a no-trade clause to 4 teams – Seattle, Toronto, Boston and Chicago Cubs.

Ok, I can understand the not wanting to be traded to Seattle or Toronto, but Boston and Chicago? Two of the biggest markets in sports and two of the better hitting stadiums in the league – I would think that he would jump at the opportunity, but I guess not.

Meanwhile, we will just have to sit in Safeco field enjoying Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez do their best to show us how not to play left field.

The Greatest Play Ever?

By Blaidd Drwg

I was never a huge Buck Martinez fan, but I do remember those 1985 Blue Jays – they were a great team and it was really the start of the era in their team history which lead to a couple of World Series appearances. Jim Schoenfeld on espn.com called a play he made in 1985 against the Mariners the greatest play he has ever seen.

The video of it exists, it is pretty bad quality and the editing is terrible (for some reason they felt the need to intersperse shots of a guy in a green shirt with the replay), but you get to see Buck Martinez record 2 putouts, get a broken leg and a dislocated ankle, all on the same play.

For your viewing pleasure:

The Mariners and the Second Half of the Season

By Blaidd Drwg

Remember a couple of months ago when there was all the excitement about the Mariners having one of the best records in baseball since the all-star break? Well, I am here to tell you my friends that the record was completely built on smoke and mirrors. The Mariners managed to build their momentum against possibly the 4 worst teams in the AL – Toronto (who lost 4/5 ths of their pitching staff to injury along with their best hitter), KC (who has no pitching anyway), Cleveland (ditto) and Minnesota (the worst team in the AL, period). If you toss in the Red Sox, the only other team they played with a losing record, they have a stellar 23-4 record. The problem is you eventually have to face teams with a winning record – The Mariners managed to go just 16-33 against those teams, capped off by ending the season with 18 straight games against Baltimore, Texas, LAA and Oakland. The gritty details:

Team July August Sep/Oct W-L
Texas 1-2 3-3 4-5
KC 7-1 7-1
TB 2-1 2-1 4-2
NYY 1-2 1-2 2-4
Toronto 2-0 1-0 2-1 5-1
Baltimore 0-3 1-5 1-8
LAA 2-2 3-3 5-5
Minnesota 6-1 6-1
Cleveland 3-0 3-0
CWS 0-3 0-3
Boston 2-1 2-1
Oakland 0-6 0-6
Total 13-6 15-12 11-19

 

July August Sep/Oct
Record Vs Winning 4-5 5-11 7-17
Record Vs Losing 9-1 10-1 4-2

 

While their record against losing teams in encouraging, this team is still way of from being a contending team. There are still a ton of holes in the lineup and questions surrounding the future of Felix Hernandez. The addition of the Astros to the AL West next season means the Mariners won’t be the worst team in the division, but if the A’s turn out to be for real, the M’s would be a longshot to make the playoffs as they would still only be the 4th best team in the division.

Mariners Shortstops, Through the Years

By Blaidd Drwg

At a Mariners game recently, I overheard a conversation about Alex Rodriguez and it got me thinking. Shortstop has been a black hole essentially since he left and I was wondering just how truly bad the Mariners shortstops over the last 11 seasons have been in light of Brendan Ryan’s sub 200 BA. The below chart, taken from the data on baseball-reference.com, contains the composite batting and fielding stats for all Mariners SS since 2000. The primary SS is the player who started the most games in a given season and DWAR is the fielding wins above replacement total (0 being replacement level, higher is better). I didn’t run the exact numbers, but the average season from the shortstop position for the Mariners since Arod’s departure is something like .254 BA, 6 HR and an OPS of .656. That is fine if you SS is batting in the Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers lineups, but not acceptable when you are in the Punch and Judy lineup the Mariners have trucked out there for the better part of the decade.

YEAR Primary SS BA HR OPS OPS+ DWAR
2012 Brendan Ryan .194 3 .555 61 3.6
2011 Brendan Ryan .250 5 .659 90 2.5
2010 Josh Wilson .230 5 .570 65 1.0
2009 Yuniesky Betancourt .231 10 .597 65 -0.4
2008 Yuniesky Betancourt .274 7 .680 89 -0.5
2007 Yuniesky Betancourt .284 9 .713 92 0.3
2006 Yuniesky Betancourt .286 8 .708 91 0.7
2005 Yuniesky Betancourt .265 4 .684 91 0.4
2004 Rich Aurilia .239 9 .630 73 0.5
2003 Carlos Guillen .269 4 .680 91 0.5
2002 Carlos Guillen .262 11 .719 100 0.2
2001 Carlos Guillen .265 5 .698 94 1.7
2000 Alex Rodriguez .318 42 1.011 172 2.3

Let’s put it this way – the last time the Mariners had a league average hitter at SS was when Carlos Guillen was still young and playing almost every day. The Mariners have a ton of holes in their lineup right now, so SS is probably the least of their concern. There may be some help in the farm system if Nick Franklin can stay healthy, although I am not sure he is going to stay at SS long term, and if Carlos Triunfel can regain some of the promise he had a the Mariners top prospect a couple of seasons ago (both Franklin and Triunfel are under the age of 23, so there is a chance they might improve). Until then, I would love to see the Mariners get someone into the SS position who might be able to hit, just a little.