A baking and gardening journal. Mostly.
By Blaidd Drwg
In the ass-backwards world of the void that is the MLB schedule, you the Red Sox vs Braves games played on Monday and Tuesday at Turner Field in Atlanta. Then, for no explainable reason, the Braves and Red Sox play again Wednesday and Thursday at Fenway Park in Boston.
The schedule maker should be taken out back and shot along with Bud Seilg for that scheduling stupidity.
By Blaidd Drwg
One of the cool things about being a sports card collector is that the cards remind you of things that you have long forgotten. I recently came across a 1988 Topps Rushing Leaders card, highlighting the 1987 season. Did you know that there were only 2 running backs that ran for 1000 yards that year (it was only a 15 game season due to a strike and most players only appeared in 12 games since 3 of them were played with mostly replacement players – about 15 % of the league did cross the picket lines)?
The 2 running backs? Eric Dickerson and Charles White. Charles White led the NFL with just under 1400 yards and Dickerson was second with just under 1300.
The story gets a bit more bizarre – White was actually Dickerson’s backup. Here is how that happened. Dickerson started the season as the Rams #1 RB, with White as his backup. After the 2nd week of the season, most of the players went on strike, but some crossed the picket lines to keep playing. Dickerson stayed away, White crossed the picket line. White became the starter. After an inauspicious debut of 9 carries for 18 yards, White busted out in week 4 with 166 yards vs. the Steelers. Charles White had, up until that point, managed 1 – 100 yard game and just 1400 yards in his 6+ year NFL career. He tore off another 100 yard game in Week 5 and then the strike ended. Dickerson was back for week 6, had about half as many carries as White in the game and then was summarily traded to the Colts. In case you don’t remember 1987, Eric Dickerson was the best RB on the planet, having just run for 1800 yards in 1986 and he was just 27 years old. With Dickerson gone, White retained the starting role and reeled off 5 more 100 yard games. Dickerson in the meantime, got off to a slow start with the Colts, but then managed to average 122 yards a game for the rest of the season to not only finish second in the league in total rushing yards, but to lead the AFC in rushing yards despite having played 3 games less than Curt Warner.
Dickerson would have just 2 more great seasons before turning into a pumpkin at age 30. Charles White would manage just 323 more yards in the NFL, getting hurt early in 1988 and losing his starting job to Greg Bell before retiring.
By Blaidd Drwg
Looking at these 162 game averages, who would you rather have on your team?
| Player | AVG | HR | RBI | BB | SO | OBP | SLG | IBB | SB |
| A | .299 | 30 | 99 | 53 | 147 | .357 | .531 | 8 | 25 |
| B | .314 | 29 | 96 | 103 | 127 | .419 | .541 | 14 | 8 |
Based on the more traditional stats, it is close, but player B seems to be the better choice.
What if I include this?
| Player | OPS+ | ASG | MVP | GG | oWAR | dWAR | Pos | Age | GP |
| A | 125 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17.5 | 0.0 | LF | 28 | 704 |
| B | 155 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 31.4 | -3.2 | 1B | 30 | 903 |
Player B is obviously a better hitter, but B is, in theory, a “better” defender and he is in his peak season right now.
One more:
| Home | Road | ||||||
| Player | BA | SLG | tOPS+ | BA | SLG | tOPS+ | |
| A | .330 | .608 | 124 | .267 | .450 | 75 | |
| B | .302 | .536 | 97 | .325 | .546 | 103 |
Both of these guys play in home parks that favor hitters pretty extremely. Player A has huge home/road splits while player B is essentially the same hitter no matter where he plays. Given all of the above info, I think player B is clearly the better player and the guy I would want to take for my team. Just for the record, player A is Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies and player B is Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds.
This came from a discussion on a baseball board about who was the better player, Gonzalez or Votto. Superficially at least, they look pretty close until you take into account that Gonzalez gets a huge boost from his home park and is somewhat more pedestrian on the road. For what it was worth, before I looked deeply into the numbers, I sided with Votto. How could you not take the guy who has led the NL in OBP 4 consecutive seasons?
by A.J. Coltrane
From Forbes:
When we reported on the Major League Soccer’s financial success in November, we noted that one of the biggest factors for the league’s continued success was its upcoming TV deal negotiations. MLS is currently in the final year of TV deals with ESPN , NBC and Univision, which pay a combined $30 million annually on average. After an especially long negotiation period, the league has finally sealed new, eight-year agreements with ESPN, Fox and Univision that will run through the 2022 season.
At today’s announcement press conference, MLS commissioner Don Garber called the set of eight-year deals the “most comprehensive media rights arrangement” in the history of American soccer. Garber also discussed the league’s need for maximizing the league’s TV revenue, an area in which MLS appears to have been incredibly successful.
In our November report we predicted that, thanks to a burgeoning fan base and the networks’ need for live programming, MLS should have little trouble more than doubling its TV rights income. It turns out even that bullish guess underestimated the final outcome – the three deals are reportedly worth a combined $90 million per year, roughly triple what MLS was receiving previously. That’s still a fair bit behind America’s other pro leagues – the NHL, for instance, gets an average $200 million per year from NBC – but is a huge step toward closing the gap.
Triple the current TV revenue!
More TV revenue -> better players -> more eyeballs -> more TV revenue…
I’d prefer to see the bulk of the revenue going to the lower and mid-tier players. I think that would improve roster “depth” and raise the overall quality of play more than would dumping the additional money into a few stars.
I won’t be surprised if the next TV contract in 2022 is triple the size of this new deal. Maybe that’s when soccer passes hockey.
By Blaidd Drwg
The April 22nd game between the Marlins and Braves yielded something interesting. Here is the box score:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=340422115
Did you notice it? The game featured 28 strikeouts with 0 walks, which got me thinking – what is the MLB record for strikeouts in a game with no walks? Well, that would be this game. I can’t seem to track down what the previous record was, but, according to ESPN, this is the first time two teams have recorded at least 28 strikeouts without a walk.
By Blaidd Drwg
I said in this post that I would revisit the points I made about the Mariners at the end of the month, so that is what I am doing.
The team went 5-9 in the interim, losing 8 in a row and then winning 4 out of 5, so this team is definitely going to be Jekyll and Hyde all season.
My points for review:
1) These boots are made for walking – Zunino and Miller specifically were my targets and they had combined for 1 walk in 84 plate appearances in the original article. Well, they improved to 3 walks in 159 – 2 for Miller and one for Zunino. It actually should be 2 in 159; the Zunino walk was intentional, when they were playing in Florida, with the pitcher due up next. So Mike Zunino has exactly 0 unintentional walks this season in 74 plate appearances. That is terrible. About the only thing keeping him in the lineup at this point is pitchers continue to throw him pitches near the strike zone and he has turned them into hits. At some point they will figure out the guy can’t hit or lay off a curve ball out of the zone. Miller probably would have played himself back to Tacoma at this point if it weren’t for the fact there is no better option. Nick Franklin can’t play short and Willie Bloomquist can’t hit, so you are stuck with Miller and his 3 for 32 slump, except when you get to see Willie Bloomquist in the lineup, which is much too often these days. The walks have been a team issue – they are 14th in the AL in runs, just 9 ahead of the Astros and last in the league in walks.
2) Under pressure – Cano won’t be allowed to hit with runners on base. I was wrong; he has only drawn 5 walks in 34 PA with runners on, and has hit a whopping .241 in those situations. Maybe teams will pitch to him as long as he continues to not do anything with guys on.
3) Round and round – the M’s OF is a mess. It continues to be a mess. Ackley is the best of the bunch with a .256/.298/.372 slash line. Romero/Saunders/Almonte have shown nothing at bat and the fielding has been less than stellar. Time to trade Nick Franklin and an arm for Andre Ethier and his insane contract. He can’t be worse than what the M’s are trucking out there right now.
4) Hot mess – the M’s rotation. Iwakuma is still a couple weeks from coming back, Walker has been shut down indefinitely, Ramirez and Maurer have pitched their way out of the rotation and even Felix hasn’t looked great in his last few starts. It will probably get worse before it gets better when it comes to starting pitching.
Are we having fun yet? Lets revisit again at the end of May.
by A.J. Coltrane
The Colorado Rapids came to town this weekend, and the Sounders smoked them, 4-2. Free haircut when the Sounders score 3 or more goals!
Through eight games Clint Dempsey is leading the league in scoring with 8 goals. (2nd place is 6 goals, then there’s one player with 5 goals, and eight more players with 4.) The Sounders are tied for 1st place in the Western Conference. Last years’ “shaky goalkeeper issue” has been resolved… Things are looking good around here.
But here’s what inspired the post: Marvell Wynne II plays for Colorado. For those of you with long sports memories, you’ll remember his dad playing baseball in the 80’s. Dad couldn’t hit, but he could run fast and play Centerfield, and he carved out a seven-year MLB career based upon those two skills. Marvell II is now in his 7th year of professional soccer, and he’s still only 27 years old..
Any time I see the “kid” connection it always gets me thinking about the future of soccer in America.
I think it’s obvious where the next wave of “kids” is coming from, and when.
Playing in the NFL is brutal. Many players leave the league with permanent, even debilitating injuries, or they can’t think straight anymore because of the repeated head trauma. The “football concussion” thing is a big sports story right now.
So what if even a few of today’s Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Running Backs steer their kids away from football, and into another sport that rewards speed and size. It’s a sport that easy to pick up and play. It doesn’t require any special training to go out and have fun. You get to run around on grass without getting the crap kicked out of you.
I’m guessing 20 years from now we’ll see the “football concussion” pushback wave arrive. That’s when it’s really going to get interesting for American Soccer.
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Unrelated Thought: The name “Marvell Junior” would almost sound like an oxymoron, wouldn’t it? I think “Marvell II” was a wise idea.
2nd Unrelated Thought: One of the ESPN guys wrote recently that the NBA should start a new advertising campaign: (paraphrasing) “The NBA! You can watch it without guilt!”
By Blaidd Drwg
Yep, baseball “purists” just can’t let the steroid thing go, even when we should be celebrating achievement, like the anniversary of Hank Aaron’s 715th HR. The guy was receiving tons of hate mail and death threats during his pursuit of Ruth’s record and that did not stop him. Apparently kept all of the letters, I really hope they get published someday, it would be an interesting look into the racism that existed in the early 70’s, but I digress. There were speeches and videos to commemorate on April 8th, and this stupid comment by Braves chairman Terry McGuirk
“[Aaron] set the home run record the old-fashioned way”
…
“You will always be the home run king of all time.”
Yep, Aaron set the HR record the old-fashioned way, by loading up on greenies (which he admitted to) and possibly other things of a performance enhancing nature. Enough of the sanctimonious bullshit with players prior to 1987 being clean. They weren’t, but let’s not have the truth get in the way of a good story. Until MLB basically wipes 1987-2004’s stats off the record books, the single season and career home run record holder is Barry Bonds, whether you like it or not. Just deal with it.
Having this discussion with a “purist” is a lot like this:
By Blaidd Drwg
I am writing this on a Monday and it will be posted on a Friday, so I am issuing the disclaimer that things may change in-between, but this makes my point.
The Mariners spent the first 12ish days of the season in first place. Everyone here was overly excited that they started the season 3-0 and that the team was poised to make a playoff run. Let me put that into perspective for you. Three games is roughly 1.8% of the baseball season. It would be like declaring that your team has turned it around and is making a playoff run approximately 1 quarter into the first game in the NFL season. Sample size people, sample size.
Well, since the Mariners torrid 3-0 start, they have managed to go just 3-5 to drop 1.5 games behind the A’s. Did you realize that the M’s had 4 winning streaks of at least 3 games last season, including an 8 game winning streak. No one got excited over those.
I think that the last 8 games are a better indicator of this team than the first 3, based on my predictions earlier this year, but there are a few very disturbing trends that should start sending out warnings to the management of this team. Yes, we are dealing with sample size issues here, and they shouldn’t start really being a concern until the end of the month, but they are things that an eye should be kept on.
1) The Mariners aren’t drawing any walks lately – particularly Brad Miller and Mike Zunino. Actually that is a bit of an understatement, because Zunino and Miller have combined for exactly 1 walk in 84 plate appearances. An average hitter will draw a walk in roughly 9% of his plate appearances, which means that these guys should have drawn about 8 walks by now. This is a potentially dangerous stat for the M’s because Zunino already has a reputation for chasing breaking stuff out of the zone. Things will probably change as the sample size increases, but if the walk rates for these guys stay this low, they are going to have to both hit over .300 just to be getting on base at a reasonable rate of around .320. It is a team issue too – the M’s drew 15 walks in their first 3 games and scored 26 runs (there is a significant correlation between walks and scoring runs). In their last 8 games, they have drawn 18 and only scored 19 runs, including being shut out twice. Pitchers tend to make mistakes with runners on base, so with guys not getting on, pitchers have the advantage.
2) Robinson Cano is not going to be allowed to hit with runners on base unless the bats behind him wake up. Cano has just 4 RBI and 2 extra base hits in 11 games and has been walked intentionally 3 times already this season. It may not seem like a lot, but it is in this small sample size. Justin Smoak lit up spring training and was hot the first 3 games of the season and then his bat fell asleep once pitchers made adjustments. Seager is batting .121, Corey Hart is hitting a wearing his sunglasses at night .188, Logan Morrison is batting .150. Granted those averages will regress to the mean, but how long will it be before Robby gets pissed off that this is happening.
3) The M’s need to figure out the OF situation. The entire outfield rotation of Romero/Hart/Morrison/Saunders/Almonte has looked lost at the plate and in the field this year (although Ackley is looking better than he has since his rookie season). They need to sort out who should be getting the bulk of the playing time and just stick with them and let them figure it out.
4) The pitching staff, despite some nice starts, is a mess. Iwakuma and Walker are out longer than anticipated (and I don’t think you will see Walker back before the middle of May). Paxton is on the DL and I am sure they are being cautious with him also. You never know what you are going to get from Ramirez and Elias and the back of the rotation is Chris Young, who hasn’t pitched in 2 years and Blake Bevan, who has never really shown any ability to get MLB hitters out consistently. This is why I have cautioned Mariner fans not to get overly excited about their pitching – they went from it being strength to a weakness in a hurry. Just takes a pulled muscle here and there and you lose 60% of your starters.
Let’s revisit this in a couple of weeks and see if the M’s made any real adjustments to fix the situations described above before they really become issues.
by A.J. Coltrane
Major League Baseball honors Jackie Robinson once each year by having all of the players wear the number 42, which was Robinson’s number.
That’d be fine, I think. But they go one step further and remove the player names from the backs of the uniforms.
Which makes it very difficult for me to watch:
“Who the hell is that?”
I say to myself.
Over and over and over again.
So the one day I won’t watch baseball is… Jackie Robinson Day.
And I was kinda looking forward to hanging out with the Mariners tonight.
FlatbreadGarden 