Jozy Altidore and Dwight Howard

by Coltrane

It looks like ESPN is now “on board” with soccer in America. Here’s today’s piece by Bill Simmons, it has an interesting comparison between Jozy Altidore and the NBA’s Dwight Howard.

We scored five goals in four games: two on hustle goals off second chances, one on a penalty kick, one on a brain fart by England’s goalie, and Donovan’s goal against Slovenia, which came with the help of a mistimed defensive play. Not a single “WOW!!!!!!!!!” play among them.

…We reached a certain plateau in 2010, a little like a 47-win NBA team that everyone knows can’t make the Finals. Watch how those crafty Germans bang home scoring chances, or the blinding speed of their young stud Mesut Ozil on the wing. Rewatch that “WOW!!!!!!!!!” goal scored by Uruguay’s striker to beat Korea Republic, or the one by Tevez in the Argentina-Mexico game. Team USA never made you scream “WOW!!!!!!!!!” for a really good reason: We don’t have a player with that kind of chops. This was a team of grinders and overachievers. We didn’t have enough speed without Charlie Davies, and we certainly don’t have a world-class striker who creates scoring chances out of thin air. In four Cup games, our forwards scored zero goals. That’s why we went home over everything else.

By 2014, maybe young Jozy Altidore (only 20) will get there; he certainly has the physical gifts, although it’s unclear whether he has any scoring touch. (It’s the difference between Dwight Howard’s low-post game and Pau Gasol’s low-post game; you can work at it all you want, but you’ll never be as good as the guys who are born to put it into the net. A guy like Germany’s Miroslav Klose could find the far post falling out of a wheelchair when he’s 60. It’s a DNA thing. I am convinced. So the worry is that Jozy has too much Howard in him and not enough Gasol.) Maybe Davies and Fast Young Guy X will provide that missing burst on the wing. Maybe Teenage Prodigy X is four years from saving us and we don’t even know his name. But you can’t advance to the semifinals without the “WOW!!!!!!!!!” factor. Impossible.

I’m rooting for Altidore to make The Leap, but I’m definitely concerned that he has too much Dwight Howard in him. The U.S. Soccer Team needs more guys with the physicality and athleticism of Terrell Owens and Allen Iverson — if those guys were “heady” soccer players.

I just named three headcases for my desired athlete(?)

(2-1/2, at least.)

Maybe that’s the reason U.S. soccer has yet to win big on the world stage — all of the headcases gravitate to the “big three” sports — if only because that’s where they’re tolerated.

Check out Simmon’s piece — it’s 20 bullet points about the World Cup and soccer in America in general.

Russell Branyan

By Blaidd Drwg

He’s baaaaccckkkk! In the WTF move of the week by Jack Zduriencik, the Marines have traded 2 spare part minor leaguers for old friend Russell Branyan.

Despite the M’s first base issues, why trade for a 32 year old slugger with back problems when you are sitting 14 games back of first place in your division half way through the season? Me thinks that Z is not ready to give up on the season, which is probably going to lead to at least one other stupid deal and possible the M’s not trading Cliff Lee. I also suspect that this will mean that either Mike Carp or Mike Saunders (or possibly both) will see a significant reduction in playing time or a trip back to Tacoma. Wak does love to play his veterans.

Useless Information from the M’s Media Guide

By Blaidd Drwg

I happened to be leafing through the Mariners Media guide and I noticed this table:

Youngest Mariners to Make Their Debut with the Team

Player	Age	Debut
Edwin Nunez	18 yrs, 315 days	April 7, 1982
Alex Rodriguez	18 yrs, 346 days	July 8, 1994
Felix Hernandez	19 yrs, 119 days	August 4, 2005
Ken Griffey Jr	19 yrs, 133 days	April 3, 1989

An impressive list to say the least – 2 guys who are no doubt HOFers, a guy who is on his way to being one and Edwin Nunez? He actually had a few decent seasons over his 13 year career. I had forgotten that he was actually a useful reliever for most of his career. Thought it was appropriate seeing as the Mariners wore their 1982 throwback unis yesterday in Milwaukee.

The other tidbit I noticed was a trend in Felix Hernandez HR’s allowed and his ERA. Here is his career:

Year	IP	HR Allowed	ERA	HR per 9 Innings
2005	84.1	5	2.67	0.5
2006	191.0	23	4.52	1.1
2007	190.1	20	3.92	0.9
2008	200.2	17	3.45	0.8
2009	238.2	15	2.49	0.6
2010	112.2	9	3.28	0.7

A very interesting trend to say the least, but not surprising – his ERA goes down when he doesn’t give up the long ball. Probably not ground breaking, but I thought it was interesting.

Jeff Clement, We Hardly Knew You

By Blaidd Drwg

With the demotion of Ian Snell last week, it got me thinking about the main piece the Mariners gave up to acquire Snell and Jack Wilson – Jeff Clement. The 2005 MLB draft was one of the best in recent history – 33 out of the 48 players drafted in the first round have seen some major league action and a number of them are going to be superstars for years to come: Tulowitzki, Upton, Zimmerman and Braun. The Mariners had the 3^rd pick in the draft in 2005, and with that selection Bill Bavasi took Jeff Clement, a power hitting catcher out of USC who scouting report showed a MLB bat but indictated he would probably not be a catcher at the major league level due to his defense. This was a deep draft – the two players taken ahead of Clement were Justin Upton and Alex Gordon. Zimmerman, Tulo, Braun and a gaggle of other good players were taken after Clement. So where did the Mariners go wrong in this draft?

This is pure speculation on my part, but I think that Bavasi drafted for need rather than taking the best player available. Here is the rest of the top 10 after Clement:

Player	Team	Position
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	3B
Ryan Braun	Brewers	3B
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	SP
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	SS
Wade Townsend	Devil Rays	SP
Mike Pelfrey	Mets	SP
Cameron Maybin	Tigers	OF

I figure that if the Mariners would not have picked Clement, they would have taken one of the guys on the above list. Zimmerman, Braun and Tulo are all at or just below the superstar level in the majors. Romero and Pelfrey are bordering on being above average starters; Maybin is looking overmatched, but is still young and may turn it around. Townsend blew out his elbow, was terrible in the minors anyway and will probably never pitch in the majors.

Why a catcher? The M’s did not have any real catching prospects in their system in 2005, so it was definitely something they needed. Bavasi was probably thinking that they were set at 3B – they had Adrian Beltre signed to a long term deal. They had their SS of the future in Yuniesky Betancourt. They had Jeremy Reed in the OF, who, at the time, looking like he was going to be an above average player. They didn’t have a 1B prospect, so maybe the thinking was that if Clement flames out as a catcher, they can put him at 1B or DH. I don’t justify it and I think, even without the benefit of hindsight, I would have probably gone with Tulowitzki, just because you can always move a power hitting SS to another position if you need to and you go with the best available player when you have as many holes as the Mariners have.

So, how poorly did this work out for the Mariners? Here is the same list as above with Clement, Upton and Gordon added:

Player	Draft Pos	WAR	Career OPS+/ERA+
Justin Upton	1	6.5	109
Alex Gordon	2	3.8	97
Jeff Clement	3	-1.3	74
Ryan Zimmerman	4	14.2	118
Ryan Braun	5	11.2	142
Ricky Romero	6	5.4	113
Troy Tulowitzki	7	15.5	110
Wade Townsend	8
Mike Pelfrey	9	4.6	98
Cameron Maybin	10	1.6	80
Andrew McCutchen	11	5.8	127

Townsend is easily the biggest bust of the top 10 – he was drafted in the top 10 in both 2004 (8^th by the Orioles) and in 2005 and managed a stellar 5.58 ERA in the minors before blowing out his arm. The irony in this is that the Rays managed to stockpile a stable of young arms in the 2003-2006 drafts, most of which now make up their rotation, so you have to give them a bit of a flyer on this one. Besides Townsend, Clement is clearly the biggest bust of the top 10. He is the only player on the list to be significantly below average from this top 10. I really do think Maybin will eventually turn it around – he was drafted out of HS, he is only 23 and he was really rushed to the majors by the Marlins. Clement is going to be 27 in August and has never shown any ability to hit MLB pitching – heck, he has been so bad that he was demoted to the minors by the PIRATES, one of the worst hitting teams in the majors.

How bad of a pick was Clement overall? Here is the worst of the first round (only guys who have played in the majors):

Player	Draft Position	Team	WAR	OPS+/ERA+	Current Team
Jeff Clement	3	Mariners	-1.3	74	Indianapolis (AAA)
Trevor Crowe	14	Indians	-0.5	75	Indians
Cesar Carrillo	18	Padres	-1.1	29	Portland (AAA)
Craig Hansen	26	Red Sox	-2.2	73	Out of Baseball
Ryan Tucker	34	Marlins	-1.3	53	New Orleans (AAA)
Trevor Bell	37	Angels	-1.5	55	Angels
Luke Hochevar	40*	Dodgers	-0.8	77	Royals
Garrett Olson	48	Orioles	-2.4	69	Mariners

Note: Hochevar did not sign with the Dodgers and was the #1 overall pick in 2006 by the Royals

Not the worst WAR of the group, but considering that the top 10 average WAR is somewhere north of 5, and he is the 3^rd overall pick, I will say his pick was a disaster. You can make the argument that he at least made the majors, 15 of the first rounders from that draft did not, although about 5 of those 15 were drafted out of high school, are 23 years old and still have a pretty good shot at making the majors in some capacity. Also, all of the players on this list, except for Crowe and Clement, are pitchers.

I do think it is funny that Zduriencik traded Clement, who is probably the biggest bust of the hitters in the 1st round of the 2005 draft and worked to get Garrett Olson who has been one of the worst pitchers to come out of the 2005 first round.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Squeeeeakk!!

by Coltrane

The U.S. defeated Algeria 1-0 to advance in the World Cup. Landon Donavon scored the winning goal in stoppage time.

With the U.S. perhaps three minutes from elimination Wednesday, Donovan brought the ball upfield on a counterattack and Jozy Altidore’s shot on the breakaway was tipped by Clint Dempsey into goalkeeper Rais Bolihi. The rebound went to Donovan, who kicked it in from about 8 yards for one of the biggest goals in U.S. soccer history.

Nothing to see here, move along..

Longest Baseball Careers

by Coltrane

Jamie Moyer and the Phillies defeated the Yankees last night by a score of 6-3. The win makes Moyer the oldest pitcher to beat the Yankees, at 47 years and 112 days.

The day before that, my mom and I were talking about Stephen Strasburg. She made the statement that “pitchers don’t last as long.” I disagreed, citing guys like Nolan Ryan (for long careers) and Mark Fidrych (for short). I said that so long as Strasburg’s arm doesn’t blow up he could expect to have a longer career than most similarly talented hitters. I thought that it should be easier for an older pitcher to throw the ball than for an older batter to try to hit it.

Here’s the chart, longevity for players with careers starting after 1950:

Seasons	Pitchers	Hitters	Total Players
27	1	0	1
26	1	0	1
25	2	1	3
24	6	3	9
23	3	8	11
22	8	13	21
21	9	12	21
20	4	15	19
Total	34	52	86

For players with 24 to 27 year careers the pitchers do indeed outnumber the hitters, 8 to 4.

For players with 20 to 23 year careers the hitters outnumber the pitchers, 48 to 26.

There have been more hitters than pitchers with 20+ year careers, a result that I hadn’t expected when I looked into this.

Chalk one up for mom.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Good Bye, Ian Snell

By Blaidd Drwg

It appears that Ian Snell‘s up and down career with the Mariners has come to a close as the M’s have DFA’ed him, which means they have 10 days to waive, trade or option him to the minors. If I am not mistaken, he has enough service time to refuse the demotion and become a free agent.

What do you want to bet he ends up with the Royals in the next week and a half? They seem to enjoy picking up the chaff that is cut loose from the M’s (although the Royals currently have a better record than the M’s), and Snell might actually improve their rotation.

Pete Rose and the Chase for Cobb’s Record

By Blaidd Drwg

I remember the pursuit for 4,192 back in 1985 well. I also remember a few years ago that there was speculation that Rose was corking his bat during the run. Well, I guess we now have proof that he actually did.

Good thing the guy is banned from baseball and can’t get into the HOF. He is a cheater and was playing with an unfair advantage. If he ever becomes eligible, he should not be allowed in because of this (I don’t believe corking a bat really does anything anyway). No player who cheats should ever get in the Hall and any that cheated should be taken out. (I am being sarcastic, this is really not anything that I would keep someone out of the Hall for).

Run Scoring in the AL East

By Blaidd Drwg

I happened to be looking at the MLB standings this morning and I noticed something interesting In the AL East:

Team	League Ranking Runs Scored	League Ranking Runs Allowed
Rays	3	4
Yankees	1 (tie)	9
Red Sox	1 (tie)	21
Blue Jays	4	13

The top 4 teams in the division are the top 4 scoring teams in baseball (think about that, all of MLB, not just the AL) as of this morning. The Yankees and Sox are both tied with 314 runs scored and the Rays and Jays are just slightly behind with 296 and 295 runs scored respectively. To put it into perspective, the Mariners currently rank 27th in runs scored with 203. The offense in the AL East is a good reason why the Blue Jays would be within half a game of the division lead in 3 of the divisions, within 1 game of one of them and leading the AL West, instead of being in 4th place in the East.

Maybe the M’s can learn something from this – considering the Sox, Yankees and Rays all “focused” on defense this offseason.

Looking back at the MLB All-Century Team

By Blaidd Drwg

I was reading this blog and there was a statement that got me thinking about something (I will post the statement below). First, a little game of who is the best player on this list:

	OPS+	MVP Won	MVP Top 5	WAR	RTZ
Player A	150	1	5	63.9	85
Player B	159	3	9	127.8	3
Player C	164	3	7	103.4	192
Player D	154	2	5	107.4	26

All of the players played the OF. Since we are looking at players from different eras, I thought that the counting stats (hits, HR, RBI, etc) would skew the perceptions, so I went with the stats that I thought would best compare the players. A note about player B – his RTZ is incomplete since not all of the data to compile the stat is available, but, based on what I have read, calling him a league average defender seems to be accurate. Looking at this chart, it is pretty clear that Player A is would probably be ranked #4 among these players, but it is really not clear who would be the best of the bunch (I would probably vote for player B).

Same chart, with a slight adjustment for players A and C:

	OPS+	MVP Won	MVP Top 5	WAR	RTZ
Player A	135	1	5	78.4	-14
Player B	159	3	9	127.8	3
Player C	181	7	12	171.8	173
Player D	154	2	5	107.4	26

The best in this chart is pretty clear – it is Player C.

Now for the reveal:

Player A – Ken Griffey, Jr

Player B – Stan Musial

Player C – Barry Bonds

Player D – Frank Robinson

The first chart includes Griffey and Bonds stats through 1998; the second includes their whole careers. So what made me do this comparison? This little tidbit:

In 1999, when Major League Baseball and its fans chose their All-Century roster, Griffey was there, beating out the likes of Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, and Frank Robinson, to name a few. He was the face of baseball for a decade and, when he won his MVP award in 1997, it felt like he was certain to win many more.

I had forgotten that Bonds did not make the team (and he was arguably the best player in baseball at the time), but was surprised Frank Robby also failed to make it and that Musial was the last OF to make it (selected by a “blue ribbon” panel after the fan vote – he actually had fewer fan votes than Roberto Clemente), as they were also among the greatest players to play the game. I realize that like the All Star voting, the All Century team was about popularity more than actual greatness, and Griffey was the most popular player in the game in 1999, so the results should not be all that surprising. You also can’t make the “position argument” (they didn’t play the same positions) since the voting was not by position – all OFers were lumped together. In retrospect though, there were at least 3 players who appear to be more deserving.

Before anyone makes the Bonds/steroids comments – it is generally accepted that Bonds did not use anything prior to 2001, and no one can prove or disprove that either Bonds or Griffey were clean prior to 1999, so I don’t see any argument for the stats not being comparable.

The second chart is the full career numbers for all of the players. Bonds, just purely on raw numbers, is clearly the best on this list. If you want to take him out with the steroid argument, then take your pick – Musial or Robby. Either way, Griffey ranks #4.

The other thing that I noticed was just how badly Griffey’s career fell off a cliff. Here are the numbers for Griffey and Bonds from 1999 through the end of their careers:

	OPS+	MVP Won	MVP Top 5	WAR	RTZ
Griffey	119	0	0	14.5	-99
Bonds	214	4	5	68.4	19

Griffey really only had 2 great seasons after age 28 (1999 and 2000) and became as fragile as a china doll after that, but that wasn’t really a surprise. What shocked me is how truly bad defensively he became. I guess that was to be expected as his health declined, but it really does make me question why the Reds continued to play him in CF when it was pretty obvious he couldn’t handle the position anymore.

Griffey is no doubt a first ballot HOFer but for all of the sappy sentimentalism that has been showered on him the past few days, I am not sure if you can legitimately make the argument for him as one of the 10 best OF in baseball history anymore.