A baking and gardening journal. Mostly.
by A.J. Coltrane
Voice In My Head 1: Jim Rice.
Voice In My Head 1: ….
Voice in My Head 1: Zack Wheat.
Voice In My Head 2: Not bad, who else can you think of?
Voice In My Head 1: …um ….hmmm
Voice In My Head 1: ….
Voice In My Head 1: Sir Francis Bacon!
Voice In My Head 2: Well… no… not exactly…
By Blaidd Drwg
I have never been a big fan of David Ortiz – yes, he was a very good hitter for a few years, but I never really bought into the entire “Big Papi” craze. Ortiz is the kind of one dimensional player that drives me nuts – even at his best, he couldn’t run, had no arm and was a defensive butcher, but he could hit, so you give him a spot in the lineup.
Over the last few years, Ortiz has been horrific in April and May and has generally struggled against left handed pitching, leading to people questioning whether or not it is time to hang it up for the slugger. I can forgive the slow start, there are tons of players who start slowly (Mark Texieria comes to mind), but the struggling against lefties is a concern. If you are an opposing manager and it is late in the game and close, you bring in a lefty to face Ortiz without the fear that he is going to take one deep on you. Here is a quick and dirty summary of Ortiz vs. lefties over the last few years:
| Vs. RHP | Vs. LHP | ||||||
| YR | PA | HR | OPS | PA | HR | OPS | |
| 2010 | 406 | 30 | 1.059 | 200 | 2 | .599 | |
| 2009 | 439 | 22 | .828 | 188 | 6 | .716 | |
| 2008 | 370 | 18 | .921 | 121 | 5 | .741 | |
| 2007 | 457 | 30 | 1.171 | 210 | 5 | .852 | |
| 2006 | 445 | 36 | 1.082 | 241 | 18 | .988 |
At one time, Ortiz could hit lefties pretty well, but over the last few years, it has become painfully obvious that is no longer the case. The power numbers are dropping and the platoon splits widening and it looks like he is falling below replacement level against lefties. I am not suggesting that Ortiz is completely useless, he still does crush right handed pitching as well as anyone in the league. I am just suggesting that he is now really just a platoon player.
Why bring this up? The Red Sox have to decide in the next few days if they want to exercise the 12.5 million dollar option that they have on Ortiz for 2011. To me, that is a ton of money to be spending on a guy who will only be able to effectively hit in 75% of the games your team plays in 2011, but this is the Red Sox and they can afford 12 million for a platoon player. Ortiz is not happy about this. He wants a multi-year deal, which I don’t see the Sox giving him. Why does he want this, here is Ortiz explaining it
“I just want to cut out all the crap and go back to the guy I was before, a happy guy who doesn’t have to be answering questions that have nothing to do with anything but controversy. I just want to be able to play baseball and have fun, like I used to,” Ortiz told WEEI.com. “That’s where I came back to not wanting just one year, because I know it’s going to be just the same thing.
“As soon as you struggle for a week, it’s going to be the same thing. People saying you are old, saying you have no bat speed anymore. People talking all kind of crap. It’s hard to avoid that because it’s all over the place. You’re a regular human being just like everyone else. It’s not like you’re in a cage, locked up and you come to the field and that’s it. It’s not like we don’t watch TV, listen to the radio, read the newspaper. We are all connected to that stuff, especially here.”
My translation of this: I want a multi-year deal so that when I don’t rebound and the media is all over me, I won’t care because I know I am going to get paid even if the team releases me.
I can’t blame Ortiz – his is (supposedly) 35, has the body type of a typical Sluggardly Slugger which generally means that he won’t age well, and I think he realizes he is slowing down. Why not try to cash in on one more big payday before your career is over.
Here is how I see it playing out – the Sox exercise their option on him and make him a platoon player at DH (They should be able to find someone to platoon with him easily). The Sox then let him walk at the end of 2011 and go out and sign someone younger for roughly the same money they would to resign Ortiz.
Personally, I would love to see Adam Dunn in a Red Sox uni.
By Blaidd Drwg
So who had the worst weekend of the Washington football teams:
Udub Huskies – they played like a puppy who has just been disciplined for peeing on the carpet in their 41 – 0 beat down by Stanford at home. They didn’t pass 100 yards of total offense until 3 minutes left in the game, had most of the fans leaving at halftime looking for anything that was more interesting, looked outmatched and outclassed, gave up a 51 yard run to the opposing QB on a fake handoff and were outgained 470 – 107 total yards. Jake Locker may have single handedly played himself right out of the first round in the 2011 draft with his putrid performance in front of 20 NFL scouts in this one. The Sled Dawgs have been a big disappointment all year for those who were drinking Sark’s cool-aid, but they still can make themselves bowl eligible by winning 3 out of their last 4. It is doable since they play @ Oregon (let’s face it, this one could get ugly), vs. UCLA (They have the same record as the Huskies and are actually a worse team), @ Cal (should be a winnable game, maybe) and @ Wazzu (heck, I think my HS football team could beat the Cougs). My prediction – the Pups get their act together and finish 6-6, saving Sark’s job; and if they lose to the Cougs somehow – Sark gets fired before he gets back to Seattle.
Wazzu Cougars – They played like an old cat that is in need of being taken out back and shot in their 42 – 0 blowout at ASU. The Kittens were their own worst enemy, getting into the Red Zone 6 times (!) and not scoring once (!), turning the ball over 3 times and giving up 493 yards of offense. In all of this, they somehow managed to actually hold the ball slightly longer than ASU. Not that I think it would have made a difference, but it would have probably been a bit closer than the actual final if they managed to get a few points on the board. Let’s face it, WSU just plain sucks and will be lucky to end this season with more than one win (and that was a 1 point win against FCS Montana State), so this pasting really wasn’t much of a surprise.
Seattle Seahawks – Just a few days after being anointed the “best team in the NFC” by Tony Dungy, they go out an play like a bunch of canaries being chased by a cat in a 33 -3 embarrassment against the Oakland/LA/Oakland Raiders. The Chicks gave up 545 yards of offense and still couldn’t stop the Raiders despite the Black and Silver’s 11 penalties. If anyone thinks the Hawks are a good team, you haven’t been watching them. The offense, to put it nicely, is pathetic. The only way they stay in games is through defensive turnovers and special teams – if those two aspects of the game don’t come through for them, they don’t stand a chance. The really sad thing about this game is that the Hawks were only down 10 – 0 at the half and still never looked like they were in the game at that point.
My vote for this week’s inept performance – The Seachickens. No way should you ever give up 545 yards to a team in an NFL football game. On the bright side, they should still win their division as none of the other teams really seem like they are trying either.
by A.J. Coltrane
I thought this one was fun — the nuns of the School Sisters of Notre Dame are auctioning a recently inherited Honus Wagner card:
The brother of a nun who died in 1999 left all his possessions to the order when he died earlier this year. The man’s lawyer told Muller he had a Honus Wagner card in a safe-deposit box.
When they opened the box, they found the card, with a typewritten note: “Although damaged, the value of this baseball card should increase exponentially throughout the 21st century!”
The card was unknown to the sports-memorabilia marketplace because the nuns’ benefactor had owned it since 1936…
…The auction ends Nov. 4, and the highest bid was $60,000 as of Wednesday morning.
… That whole “exponential increase” didn’t work out like everyone would have liked, I don’t think.
In conclusion —
Wagner was known as “The Flying Dutchman.” His card is now owned by nuns.
Therefore:
by A.J. Coltrane
Colt McCoy (a.k.a. “The ManCrush”) had his NFL regular-season debut against Pittsburgh this past Sunday. Despite playing against one of the toughest defenses in the league, and losing both starting wide receivers to injury, he produced a respectable line: 23 completions on 33 attempts, 281 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int — good for a 80.5 Quarterback Rating.
Here’s some of the reviews:
I’ve seen a lot of quarterback debuts up close as a former Cleveland Browns beat writer, and Colt McCoy’s first NFL start was the best of the group. McCoy became Cleveland’s 16th starting quarterback since 1999 and threw for 281 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1). McCoy took a pounding and made rookie mistakes. But he also showed toughness, leadership and good accuracy. What does this all mean? McCoy deserves at least one more start this week against the New Orleans Saints until Seneca Wallace (ankle) or Jake Delhomme (ankle) are 100 percent healthy. Then the Browns (1-5) can evaluate two of McCoy’s games against the starts of Wallace and Delhomme during the bye week and figure their direction at quarterback.
Ben Roethlisberger‘s return was the story of the week for this game, but the more interesting development was Browns rookie Colt McCoy showing he’s a real NFL quarterback. The final numbers (23-of-33, 281 yards, 1TD, 2 INTs) may not necessarily prove that, but McCoy had a surprising amount of poise with the Steelers’ pass rush coming down on him all afternoon. The Browns never wanted to use McCoy this early. If he can survive in Pittsburgh, he’s good enough to start for this 1-5 team.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer – Bud Shaw (not blockquoted in the interest of avoiding formatting issues next to the cool photo):
“I just told ’em the hay is in the barn,” McCoy said. “For some of the city folks I had to [explain].”
As his head coach and a number of teammates said Sunday, the game didn’t look too big for McCoy. After his run-for-cover training camp, that was a welcome sight.
Give Eric Mangini and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll credit. They didn’t send the kid into the ring and tell him to clinch and cover up. They let him come out swinging. Where the Browns offense is concerned, this is a relative term, of course.
McCoy threw on first down early (or at least tried). He completed a dozen passes for 10 yards or longer. Six covered 20 yards or more. A chunk of his 281 yards happened late, but there was less garbage time than the final score indicates. He did more than dink and dunk.
“He took control of the huddle,” guard Eric Steinbach said. “That’s what a quarterback has to do. I don’t care if he’s a first-year guy or a 12-year vet.”
The Colt McCoy Experience — I like the sound of that.
———
Finally, two funny, if somewhat mean-spirited, Sprint ads:
“Injury” — “It means I’m dropping you from my fantasy team, that’s for sure.”
by A.J. Coltrane
When I was in grade school we had the “Scholastic Book Club.” The program allowed students to buy small paperbacks for a nominal amount of money. Sports titles included “Winners Under 21”, featuring Muhammed Ali and Wayne Gretzky. I also bought the book shown below:
Ebay listing here. Featuring: Walter Payton, Franco Harris, Harvey Martin, Bob Griese, O.J. Simpson, Greg Pruitt, Isaac Curtis, Lyle Alzado, Lydell Mitchell, Tony Dorsett, and Bert Jones.
One of the other books was a sort of “Legends and Record Holders” — that’s how I became familiar with guys like Night Train Lane, Jim Brown, and George Blanda. Brown and Blanda both held records that were never surpassed until the introduction of the 16-game season: Brown with his 12,312 career rushing yards, and Blanda with his 2,002 career points over a 26 year career.
All this time has gone by, and I didn’t have to look those numbers up. To my young mind those records were both eternal and immortal. Blanda passed away on Monday, and it reminded me of all of those Scholastic Club books. I got to looking at the cover of the All-Stars of Pro Football and I couldn’t identify the player in the center of the picture…
After some research, I think it’s Boobie Clark. The photograph was taken during the San Diego Chargers – Houston Oilers divisional playoff game in December 1979. Quarterback Dan Pastorini, Running Back Earl Campbell, and Wide Receiver Ken Burrough were all injured during the previous game against the Broncos. They represented the Oilers top offensive weapons, and each would miss the game pictured above. The modern equivalent would be the Colts losing Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, and Reggie Wayne for a playoff game, and winning the game anyway.
Boobie scored on a 1 yard touchdown run to give the Oilers a 10-7 halftime lead. The Oilers went on to win 17-14, and Boobie cemented his own small piece of immortality on the cover a book purchased by ten year-old boys everywhere.
Final question: Did the publishers have a meeting and say to each other: “Let’s put the Oiler’s 3rd string running back on the cover of our All-Pro issue and we’ll confuse the hell out of some guy in 30 years.”
I’m guessing maybe they did.
by Coltrane
On the old blog I’d do posts with the theme – “Time Machine.” I’d pull emails out of the archives and see how they looked in the current light.
Here’s an email from shortly after the M’s signed Richie Sexson, dated January 1, 2005. For the professional (Joe Posnanski) piece, go to the bottom of this post:
…Ichiro had a “historic” league-record 262 hits in 2004. In 2004 Ichiro drew 49 walks and was hit by a pitch 4 times. Ichiro got on base 315 times, leading the American league. Barry Bonds got on base 376 times last season. The all-time record is 379 by Babe Ruth. Bonds missed that record by 3, but I never heard anyone mention it. Ichiro’s 315 was enough for a 5-way tie for 58th best all-time. Sure, it’s “good”, but is it “historic”?
As Ichiro approached the hits record a couple of interesting things happened:
1. In the months of September and October Ichiro had a total of 50 hits— 47 singles and 3 doubles. It doesn’t get much emptier than that. Ichiro’s OPS (On Base + Slugging) for the season ranked 22nd in the American league. It’s tough to rank 22nd in OPS when you hit .372, but he literally didn’t do anything *besides* hit singles in 2004.
2. On one or two occasions Ichiro tried to bunt with a runner on 2nd base. He made no attempt to drive the runner in, he was simply trying to pad his hit total. It was a selfish move and it is not “winning baseball”.
Of course, the thing that really bugs me is that I’m going to have to hear about the “historic season” every game for the next 5-7 years, as well as every time Ichiro comes to visit after he retires. Believe me, Neihas is *not* going to miss an opportunity to bring it up ad naseum.
The single-season leaders for Times on Base (Baseball-Reference.com.)
Next subject [Ed: same email] — Sexson/Jacobsen/Leone:
Mike Cameron pretty much got run out of Seattle due to his high strikeout rate. Mike struck out the equivalent of 151 times per full season of play. Here’s how that figure compares to some current and former M’s.
Bucky Jacobsen 181
Justin Leone 167
Richie Sexson 156
Jay Buhner 155
Mike Cameron 151
Be prepared to look at a *lot* of swinging and missing in 2005. In 2004 Jacobsen and Leone both got hurt before the league had figured out how to pitch to them. If anything those strikeout rates are likely to go up. If Jacobsen gets significant playing time in 2005 you can figure on a batting average of about .230. Leone you can forget about, he’s not really a major league player.
In a lot of ways Richie Sexson is the new Jay Buhner. He has good power, he strikes out a lot, and he’ll give the fans another muscle-bound white guy to root for. Figure Sexson for about .260 with 30 HR if he stays healthy. Sexson got hurt twice last year checking his swing– he’s a significant injury risk. The M’s signed him to a $50 million/4 year contract. The other question would be – is a 1B who hits .260 with 30 HR is worth $12.5 million per year? Sexson is now 30 years old — this is also another example of the M’s paying for past performance on an aging player…
——————-
Jacobsen never played another game in the majors. Leone played in one more game — it was two years later with the Padres. (Of course, that’s what tends to happen when your rookie year is age 28 (Jacobsen) and age 27 (Leone.)) So much for those strikeouts I’d predicted.
Sexson hit .244 over the length of that contract, compiling WARs of 4.2, 3.3, -1.4, and -0.3. Fangraphs values those contributions at $14.3m, $12.1m, -$5.6m, and -$2.6m. In other words, the M’s received $18.2 of production from Sexson on a $50m contract. Thank you Bill Bavasi. (Click here for an explanation of WAR.)
I did the digging in the old emails because Joe Posnanki had a really interesting piece today, comparing Ichiro to Nolan Ryan. Both players excell(ed) in at least one statistical category, though you could argue (and Joe does) that neither player was as productive as his reputation would lead you to believe.
As for the picture above, here’s an excerpt from Ryan’s wikipedia entry:
…Before the 1993 season, Ryan announced his retirement, effective at the end of that season. On August 4, just before the end, Ryan had yet another high profile moment – this time an on-the-mound fight. After Ryan hit Robin Ventura of the Chicago White Sox, Ventura charged the mound in order to fight Ryan, who was 20 years his senior. Ryan secured the 26-year-old Ventura in a headlock with his left arm, while pummelling Ventura’s head with his right fist six times before catcher Iván Rodríguez was able to pull Ventura away from Ryan. Ryan stated afterwards it was the same maneuver he used on steers he had to brand on his Texas ranch…
Interestingly – Annie S., my brother, and I were all in the Kingdome to see Nolan Ryan’s last game on September 22 of that same year, though we didn’t know each other until later. (Of course, at that time I already knew my brother, but you get the idea.)
By Blaidd Drwg
In looking at the AL East standings this morning after the Sox swept the Mariners, you will see this:
| W-L | GB | Games Remaining | Home | Road | |
| Rays | 88-57 | — | 17 | 9 | 8 |
| Yankees | 88-58 | .5 | 16 | 7 | 9 |
| Red Sox | 82-64 | 6.5 | 16 | 9 | 7 |
The Yankees just happen to be leading the wild card race, so that means the Sox are also just 6 games back from making the playoffs. The 6 game spread between the Yankees and Red Sox seems pretty insurmountable with just 16 games left in the season, right? Well, maybe not.
One thing we need to consider is schedules – the Sox are 42-30 at home this season, so having more home than road games remaining is a big advantage for them. Here are the remaining schedules for the Rays, Yankees and Sox:
| Red Sox | Yankees | Rays | ||||||||
| Opponent | G | W-L | Opponent | G | W-L | Opponent | G | W-L | ||
| Vs TOR | 3 | 73-73 | @BAL | 3 | 58-88 | Vs LAA | 3 | 71-74 | ||
| Vs BAL | 3 | 58-88 | Vs TB | 4 | 88-57 | @ NYY | 4 | 88-58 | ||
| @ NYY | 3 | 88-58 | Vs BOS | 3 | 82-64 | Vs SEA | 3 | 55-91 | ||
| @ CWS | 4 | 79-66 | @ TOR | 3 | 73-73 | Vs BAL | 3 | 58-88 | ||
| Vs NYY | 3 | 88-58 | @ BOS | 3 | 82-64 | @ KC | 4 | 60-85 | ||
| Total | 16 | 386-343 | Total | 16 | 383-346 | Total | 17 | 332-396 |
Obviously the Rays have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, even with the 4 game series in NY. I think if they split that series, the Rays effectively win the division. It gets a bit more interesting between NY and Boston. They both have 16 games left and play each other 6 of those times. The next 6 games or so will tell where the Sox destiny lies – if they manage to take 5 of the next 6 and the Yankees drop 3 of the next 6 (lets say they go 2-1 in Baltimore and 1-2 vs. TB), that would move the Sox to 4 back of the Yankees. Assuming they both have the same record in their non head-to-head match-ups, the Sox would need to take 4 of 6 to force a playoff, a scenario that is tough, but not out of the question.
If you asked me last weekend if the Sox had a chance, I would have told you no way in hell – they had just lost back to back games with the A’s in Oakland and had to come to Seattle where they typically play poorly. Well, after taking the last game in Oakland and sweeping the Mariners and coupled with the 2-8 stretch the Yankees are on, right now I am not so sure we should be burying the body – I think there might be a faint sign of a pulse there.
By Blaidd Drwg
The Mariners have hit 90 home runs as a team this season, which is currently tied for last in the AL with the A’s. That is awful. To put it in perspective, the M’s have 2 guys who have double digit home runs – Gutierrez and Branyan, and Branyan leads the team with 14 and he wasn’t even playing in Seattle before July.
The Mariners lineup in last night’s game has hit 56 HR on the season, the AL leader in HR as of last night, Jose Bautista, has hit 46 HR on the season. Normally I would use the excuse that it is a meaningless September game for the M’s and they are getting guys playing time. Unfortunately, the M’s played most of their regulars last night.
It amazes me that the Red Sox stuck around the playoff race as long as they did – their outfield last night: Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava and Ryan Kalish, all rookies. It is a far cry from the OF they started the season with – JD Drew, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Matt Tuiasosopo is the new Willie Bloomquist. He is a guy who is probably a good 25th man because he can play 7 positions but can’t hit his way out of a paper bag and is probably a good clubhouse guy because he is just “happy to be here”. Managers love these type of guys and then fall in love with them, finding a way to put them in the lineup on a semi-regular basis. I understand that Tacoma is playing for the AAA championship and that has prevented the M’s from calling anyone up and that Michael Saunders is hurt, but can you honestly tell me that there is no better option in LF than Tuiasosopo? (Rob Neyer had a wonderfully snarky post about Bloomquist here)
Local product Jon Lester dominated the Mariners once again giving up 1 run with 12 K’s in 8 innings. Last time in Seattle, he had 13K’s and took a no-hitter into the 8th inning before imploding.
The game time was 2:23 last night – impressive considering the Red Sox average game time this season is significantly over 3 hours.
The attendance for last night’s game – 19,063. That is far and away the lowest attendance at a Red Sox-Mariners game that I have been to in the 7 years I have been here. Heck, I can’t remember the last time that I was at any Red Sox game the attendance was that low, in any stadium (it may have been sometime back in 2001).
by Coltrane
| Team | Checking In | Checking Out | 2009 Record | 2009 Passing Rank | 2009 Points/ Game |
| Raiders | Jason Campbell | JaMarcus Russell | 5-11 | 29th | 12.3 |
| Redskins | Donovan McNabb | Jason Cambell | 4-12 | 15th | 16.6 |
| Eagles | Kevin Kolb | Donovan McNabb | 11-5 | 10th | 26.8 |
John Clayton thinks that Donovan McNabb will add 5-6 points per game to the Redskins’ offense.
I always start by assuming that Clayton is correct. Then, if I don’t agree with him, I figure I must have missed something. However —
Here’s what I think:
McNabb and new coach Mike Shanahan will score 3-5 more points per game than the 2009 Redskins. A big part of that will be (or should be) attributed to the upgrade from Zorn to Shanahan.
The Eagles won’t miss McNabb. Philadelphia was 5th in the league in scoring last year, so some regression back to the pack is figured in the chart below. Kevin Kolb will be an All-Pro within three years.
The Raiders will make a big leap forward with Jason Campbell. Part of that will be due to JaMarcus Russell’s release, simple addition by subtraction.
To sum up:
Donovan McNabb — Overrated.
Jason Campbell — Very underrated.
Kevin Kolb — Mostly unknown commodity, but not for long.
2010 predicted totals — something like:
| Team | New QB | 2009 Points/ Game | 2010 Points/ Game | Change |
| Raiders | Jason Campbell | 12.3 | 17.1 | +4.8 |
| Redskins | Donovan McNabb | 16.6 | 20.5 | +3.9 |
| Eagles | Kevin Kolb | 26.8 | 25.4 | -1.4 |
FlatbreadGarden 