And not about the team on the field, we already knew that product wouldn’t be particularly good. The attendance is what they should worry about. In the 6 game home stand the M’s just completed, they drew 138,127 fans, which is an average of 23,000 per game – not great, but not terrible for April when attendance tends to be lower. That number is deceiving, especially when you consider that more than half of those fans were at 2 games – the home opener (45,000) and the second game which was an Ichiro Felix Bobble Head night (30,000).
Not even this handsome gentleman could boost attendance at Safeco these days.
They managed to draw 21,000 to Kids Opening Day on Sunday (it seemed like a lot less than that), 13,000 to Felix’s first start of the season and 12,400 to the last game of the series against the Jays, a new all-time low attendance figure for Safeco field. The really sad thing is that the game Felix started also broke the record for the lowest attendance at Safeco field. I am also shocked to see that the attendance for the bobble head night was only 30k – it is usually closer to 40K.
This is a team with a nearly 90 million dollar payroll that has a handful of players worth watching, so the lack of people coming to the games is really not all that surprising. There has been a noticeable downward trend in attendance for years for the M’s and I think this might be the year they fail to break 2 million for the first time since Safeco opened. To make matters worse, with all the talk of a “youth movement” for the Mariners, their hitters have an average age of 31.3, which makes them older than every team in the AL except the Yankees (the league average is 29.5 years old). They do much better with an average pitcher age of 27.5, good for the 5th youngest in the AL, but outside of Felix and Pineda, are any of the “young” pitchers on this team really guys you see being Mariners in 3 years?
According to John Hollinger (ESPN insider only), there are some fairly hard and fast “rules” governing the NBA Playoffs:
Teams that don’t have home-court in the first round, and lost the season series to their opponent, almost always lose.
Up until last season, teams in this situation had lost 41 straight times. Ouch. Last year, there were two exceptions, but even those got giant asterisks — San Antonio beat Dallas, but the Mavs only won the season series because they played against the Spurs’ backups on the last day of the season. And Utah beat Denver, but only after the Nuggets lost half their team and their head coach.
So it’s now up to 46-2 in the past 48 meetings; there were four occasions it happened in the 1990s, but you’re still looking at about a 95 percent fail rate. I’ll go ahead and bet against that unless presented with a darned good reason not to…
The five teams on the short end of that stick this year are Denver, Indiana, Philadelphia, New York, and New Orleans. Of course, that’s before David Stern gets involved.
Then there’s this one:
Since the league went to a 16-team payoff format in 1983-84, only 13 teams have won consecutive series without home-court advantage.
…This gives us a pool of roughly 300 teams, give or take. Out of that pool, 13 pulled it off. So the odds of pulling this off are roughly 1-in-20; it only happens about once every two years, and it happened each of the past two…
Hollinger goes on to predict a Lakers vs Heat Finals. I think it will be the Lakers against either the Bulls or Heat.
As far as the “David Stern gets involved” — see the Sonics-Suns Western Conference Finals, 1993, Game 7 — the Suns shot 64(!) free throws to the Sonics 36 en route to winning the game 123-110. That result gave the NBA their Barkeley-Jordan Finals matchup. There’s a chart showing the FT/FGA for the series. For reference, the league average in 1993 was .234 (23.4 Free Throws attempted for every 100 Field Goal attempts.) Check out the “spike” in free throw rate favoring the Suns in Game 7:
FT/FGA -- Free throw rate per Field Goal attempted.
MLB.com is running a series of the “20 Greatest Games Ever Played”. Included is this gem from game 7 of the 1992 Braves – Pirates series:
… Sid Bream, Mark Lemke and Andy Van Slyke are the guests. (As part of the conversation, Van Slyke told MLB Network that on the Francisco Cabrera game-winning hit, he motioned to Barry Bonds to move in. Bonds responded by giving him the finger, and the ball ended up landing exactly where Van Slyke said to play)…
As I sit here yet again late at night, working, I find myself reflecting on the Mariners home opener. The game was not pretty – they got shellacked badly and the offense looked lifeless. I won’t bother with a game recap, there are plenty of those out there, I wanted to talk about a few things I noticed at the game.
Just about everyone on the coaching staff played for the Cleveland Indians at some point in their career, which is funny considering it is a new staff and the home opener was against Cleveland. The only coaches that did not play for Cleveland are Mike Brumley and Carl Willis (although Willis did sign with them as a free agent but ended up pitching in the minors for them). The other 6 coaches all played at least 1 game for Cleveland.
I am digging the new scoreboards that line the stadium. They are LED, easy to read and have all sorts of new statistical information. The one near the Hit It Here Café not only has the pitchers line for the game, but also has the hitters BA/OBP/OPS for the season, vs. the handedness of the pitcher on the mound and his career splits against the current pitcher.
The Dave Neihaus tribute was somewhat lacking. While I am sure the My Oh My rap song was a heartfelt tribute, it sounded lousy and didn’t seem to fit celebrating the man who was the voice of the Mariners. I am sure they wanted something less somber than the tribute that was held in the off-season, but the least they could have done was have a moment of silence for Dave. There should not have been a dry eye in the house for this.
They did have a remembrance for the baseball players who passed away in the off-season. I hadn’t realized it, but we lost several Hall of Famers in the span of a couple of months. Our connection to the golden age of baseball is slowly fading into history and soon there will be no one left who remembers it.
Something I noticed – when Ichiro was presented with his plaque for becoming the Mariners all-time hit leader by Edgar Martinez, Edgar got a much bigger ovation. Edgar looks like he dropped a bunch of weight also and hasn’t looked that good since his playing days.
On a note not related to the Mariners, this is the 50th anniversary of the first time that MLB expanded, when the AL added 2 teams. Can you name them? (answer after the jump)
I saw on ESPN that a Cleveland Browns fan is suing the team and the NFL for breach of contract for his personal seat license.
The heart of the lawsuit is this:
Lanci claimed that the lockout denies him the right under the personal seat licenses to go to Browns games and has destroyed the value of the seat-license agreement.
Hey guys. Does Cleveland still rock?
A couple of questions:
1) With the level of futility that the Browns have displayed since their return to the NFL, do they have anyone willing to admit they are still, in fact, a Browns fan?
2) Wouldn’t the value of the seat-license agreement have been further destroyed if the team actually PLAYED another full NFL season?
I know a Browns season ticket holder and they are a die-hard fan. I think they would agree the team being awful has hurt the value of the seats more then the lockout ever would. People in Cleveland wouldn’t go to games toward the end of last year because the team was so bad, would they even notice a lockout?
I guess that’s sort of accurate, Dennis Rodman and Chris Mullin *are* going into the Basketball Hall of Fame — but really… look at the charts, starting with career totals:
Player
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Artis Gilmore
24941
16330
3050
Dennis Rodman
6683
11954
1600
Chris Mullin
17911
4034
3450
Rodman + Mullin
24594
15988
5050
Gilmore in his ABA days.
That’s one way to look at it; the 7’2″ Gilmore had more points and more rebounds than Mullin and Rodman, combined.
Gilmore *did* play forever, maybe his per game stats suffered:
Player
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Total
Artis Gilmore
18.8
12.3
2.3
33.4
Dennis Rodman
7.3
13.1
1.8
22.2
Chris Mullin
18.2
4.1
3.5
25.8
That one favors Gilmore too.
How about career Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes?
Player
Career Win Shares
WS per 48
Artis Gilmore
189.7
0.193
Dennis Rodman
89.8
0.150
Chris Mullin
93.1
0.139
Rodman + Mullin
182.9
In mid-late career Gilmore played with the Spurs. This is how I remember him.
There it is again — Gilmore had more career value than Rodman and Mullin combined *and* he contributed at a higher rate per 48 minutes.
I’m of the suspicion that the Hall wanted to admit Rodman due to his seven rebounding titles, five championships and the fact that he was Defensive Player of the Year two times. If Rodman was going in it meant that the Hall finally had to take Gilmore.
Here’s a piece on NBA.com about Gilmore. Check out the highlight reel, though it only sort of does him justice (and try to ignore the commercial at the beginning.)
The two players directly behind him in career points are Ewing and Iverson. (Gilmore is 20th all-time.) He’s also 5th all-time in career rebounds, about 4,700 (41%!) ahead of Ewing. Ewing is already in the Hall of Fame.
Really, Gilmore should have been admitted 15 years ago.
The Vegas over/under for M’s season wins opened in the 67.5 – 68.5 range. The number closed at 70.
I recently read somewhere that in 2010 there were a few significant differences between sabermetric projections and the Vegas lines, and that this year they’re pretty much in agreement.
As I was working at 2 AM the other morning and was trying to stay awake watching a file load, I started thinking about the 2011 season for the Mariners and what that is going to look like. I took a “best case” and “worst case” look at the team and eventually it evolved into a discussion with myself. Here is how that broke down:
This analysis of the Mariners is sort of like Spy vs. Spy.
Starting Pitching
The rotation: Felix, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Erik Bedard, Michael Pineda
The Optimist’s Take – this has the potential to be one of the top 5 rotations in baseball. Felix should easily put together another Cy Young quality season, Bedard looks like he regained his form and is ready to be dominating, Vargas is right about in his prime years and looks to have finally realized his ceiling, Fister is a serviceable back of the rotation guy, and Pineda looks ready to be a young Felix. The rotation could be the strength of this team.
The Pessimist’s Take – Once you get past Felix, this rotation has a potential for disaster. Vargas has no track record to show last season was not a fluke; Bedard is as fragile as a china doll and there is nothing in the organization to replace him with (French, Robertson, and a bunch of 4A guys); Fister is a soft tosser that is always playing with fire when it comes to getting shelled; Pineda might be the next coming of Felix, or he might pitch like a 22 year old rookie and find himself back in Tacoma sooner rather than later. There are too many questions to get excited about the rotation right now.
Relief Pitching
The Pen: David Pauley, Brandon League, Chris Ray, Jamey Wright, Josh Lueke, Tom Wilhelmsen and Aaron Laffey
The Optimist’s Take – the pen is going to have to hold together until Aardsma comes back. League should step right in to the closer role the rest of the pen is a nice combination of rookies and vets with some hard tossers thrown in. If they can hang on until Aardsma is back, they should be tough in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings with League – Lueke – Aardsma.
The Pessimist’s Take – this pen is a bunch of has-beens and never will-bees. League is solid and they will hopefully improve when Aardsma comes back, but who bridges the gap between the starters and League. Chris Ray, has a terrible injury history and isn’t a power pitcher anymore. Pauley, Laffey and Wright are all mop up guys and you don’t want them protecting any leads. Lueke throws hard and has all of 17 innings at AAA in his career. Wilhelmsen is a 27 year old rookie who has never pitched above class A. That is not the kind of pen that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing hitters.
Hitters
The Starters: Chone Figgins at third, Brendan Ryan at shortstop, Jack Wilson at second and Justin Smoak at first. Miguel Olivo will start behind the plate. Jack Cust will be the designated hitter. Seattle’s outfield will include Ichiro Suzuki (right field), Ryan Langerhans (center field) and Milton Bradley (left field).
Langerhans as the starting CF for the Mariners? Really?
The Optimist’s Take – the lineup can’t possibly be any worse than it was last season. Figgins should be better at 3B than Lopez and will hopefully build off his 2nd half of 2010; Ryan should be better than the Wilson-Wilson-Woodward disaster there last season; Wilson is probably a downgrade at 2B and you have to wonder if there is something wrong with him (you don’t normally move a Gold Glove SS to 2B for a lesser defensive replacement) and hope that Ackley is ready by June; Smoak has a full season under his belt and looks more relaxed; Cust will be better than the black hole at DH the M’s had last season and has the potential for being a legitimate 25-30 HR power threat; Olivo should be more productive then Bard-Moore-Johnson; Ichiro will be Ichiro. The only real potential areas for worse production are CF (until Guti comes back) and LF where it will be dependant on which Milton Bradley shows up day to day.
The Pessimist’s Take – Of course this lineup would be hard pressed to do worse than last year’s ineptitude. In the IF, you have an unknown with Smoak and potentially 4 sub-100 OPS+ guys manning the rest of the IF, with three of those guys, Ryan, Wilson and Olivo possibly posting sub-300 OBP. Olivo didn’t hit last year outside of Colorado, so how far will his numbers drop? Cust is a nice addition, but will he show any power in Safeco? Ichiro will hopefully continue to produce, but Langerhans in center? Really? You aren’t going to win and you need to know if Saunders is going to have anything resembling a decent career so why not put him out there. Either way, I think we are going to find that Guti’s 2009 season was his career year when he gets back from the DL. Bradley should be interesting. I give him until April 20th to blow up again.
The Bench
Luis Rodriguez and Adam Kennedy will act at utility infielders, Adam Moore as backup catcher and Michael Saunders acting as a utility outfielder.
The Optimist’s Take – Not much here to look at; you just hope that they are able to produce something when they are in the lineup.
The Pessimist’s Take – Langerhans should be your backup OF. You are leaving too much potential on the bench.
The Outlook The Optimist’s Take – if the pitching comes together and the hitting improves, this should be a 73 – 77 win team. Nothing exciting, but not nearly as dreadful as last year,
The Pessimist’s Take – this team isn’t much of an improvement over last season’s crapfest, so they should really end up in the 65 – 70 win range, only because you have Felix and it is really hard to lose 100 games in back to back seasons. The fire sale should take place in about June again.
After the outlooks were written, the following conversation took place:
Pessimist: Hey, O, what kind of sunshine are you smoking, calling this a 77 win team? Optimist: The pitching is better, the hitting should improve. Pessimist: You could put me in the lineup and the hitting would improve. Even if the M’s score 100 more runs this season, that will still probably make them the worst offense in the AL. Do you really think this team is going to score 100 more runs? Optimist: Probably not, but the pitching will probably give up fewer runs and close the run differential gap. Pessimist: You mean like last season when we had Cliff Lee? What do you do when Bedard can’t make it past the 5th in every start and then goes down with an injury? Luke French time? Optimist: This team doesn’t exactly have pitching depth. Pessimist: And the bullpen? Optimist: Yeah, they really aren’t that impressive. Pessimist: Ok, let me get this straight – the offense is better, but still among the worst in the AL, the pitching could be great, but is fragile and the bullpen isn’t good. Yet, you think they will improve by 15 wins? Back to my original question, what kind of sunshine are you smoking? Optimist: Well, since you say it that way, it does sound a little crazy. Pessimist: Yeah, just a *little*. Then again, this conversation is between me and myself.
There you have it, my prediction is the Mariners win between 65 and 70 games this season.
FlatbreadGarden 