By Blaidd Drwg

On June 16th, the AL West Standings looked like this:

As of June 30th, they look like this:

Thanks to a decent win streak by the Rangers and a 4 – 8 stretch by the Mariners, the Puget Sound Plunkers have slipped into 3rd, are below .500 and closer to last than they are first. How bad have the last 12 games been for the M’s? They have scored 30 runs and given up 35, It isn’t easy to win only 33% of your games averaging giving up 3 runs a game in the process. Well, unless you have the worst offense in baseball that is. I honestly think the M’s will be out of contention by late July, if not sooner, unless they get at least 2 bats in that lineup.

In the more interesting division in the AL, here is what it looked like on 6/16:

As of 6/30, we now have this:

We would like to thank the Jays and O’s for playing and we will see you next year. The Sox have dropped thanks to a less than stellar performance against the Pirates and Padres and you have to feel bad for the Rays. Third place in their division and the 3rd best record in the AL. Heck they would be leading either the Central or the West by at least 3 games if they played either place. Sadly, they probably won’t even win the wild card without the Yankees or Sox choking.

By Iron Chef Leftovers:

In today’s Seattle Times, Steve Kelley wrote about what the Mariners should do with Erik Bedard. He wrote this nugget:

Timing will be everything.

Bedard made his 15th start of the season Monday. In both 2008 and 2009, he broke down after 15 starts. Is he fixed, as healthy as he was when he made 33 starts for Baltimore in 2006? Or is he one nasty curveball away from grabbing his shoulder and walking off the mound and out of the season?

The irony of it all – Bedard was placed on the DL today albeit with a strained knee.

By Blaidd Drwg

For those of you luck to be attending the Mariners – Phillies series in the middle of June, you don’t exactly get cheated on your pitching matchups (assuming the current rotations hold and there are no postponed games between then and now):

June 17th – Roy Oswalt squares off with Michael Pineda
June 18th – The King, Felix Hernandez battles Cole Hamels
June 19th – A bit of lighter fare as Kyle Kendrick matches wits with Jason Vargas

The Mariners do dodge a bullet by not having to face Halliday or Lee.

By Blaidd Drwg

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times wrote recently that Bedard’s recent pitching has been good enough to make it look like the trade the Mariners made for him back in 2008 wasn’t a complete bust. In case you don’t remember, the M’s traded 5 players – Tony Butler, Adam Jones, Kameron Mickolio, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman for Bedard. Except for Sherrill, all of the other players the M’s moved were in their early 20’s. Butler has not reached the majors, and doesn’t look like he will anytime soon. Mickolio had a couple of cups of coffee with the Orioles and is now pitching for the Diamondbacks. Sherrill spent a year and a half with the Orioles before getting shipped to the Dodgers for a couple of prospects. Jones is a regular in the Orioles lineup and Tillman is in their starting rotation.

Here is how that deal has worked out based on wins above replacement from baseball-reference.com:

*Mickolio’s -0.1 figure is the WAR for Mark Reynolds, whom the Orioles received from the Diamondbacks in the trade for Mickolio.
^Sherrill’s -1.0 figure is the WAR for Josh Bell, whom the Orioles received from the Dodgers in the trade for Sherrill.

It is a pretty significant difference in total WAR – the O’s have picked up about 3 wins a season from the trade while the M’s have picked up about 1 win. It is not like either of these teams are on the verge of the playoffs either, so that is not going to make a huge difference. Where it really ends up hurting is when you look at what the M’s gave up. Jones is only 25 and just starting to enter his prime. He is a fantastic defensive CF and figures to man his position for several years to come. Had the M’s not traded him, they still could have gone out and gotten Franklin Gutierrez – and outfield of Guti, Jones and Ichiro would probably be the best defensive OF in baseball. Couple that with the loss of Tillman, whose numbers probably would have benefited from playing in Safeco, who is only 23 and seems to finally be finding his stride in the majors and will probably end up a #3 or #4 starter (think someone like Jason Vargas or Doug Fister), it makes it hard to believe that 4 injury riddled seasons of Erik Bedard could possibly equate.

Just to add insult to injury (sorry, couldn’t resist) the Orioles have paid less salary to the 5 players they received in the trade over the last 3 seasons (not counting 2011) than the Mariners paid for Erik Bedard in 2008.

Even if Bedard manages to stay healthy and pitches like a Cy Young Award contender and Chris Tillman flames out of the majors, there is no way that Erik Bedard for Adam Jones is not a significant win on the trade ledgers for the Orioles.

By Blaidd Drwg

Last night, aided by 6 walks and 3 HR, the Mariners had one of the ugliest 7-0 victories I have ever seen against Tampa Bay. The Mariners actually only had 4 hits in the game, but because of the timeliness of the hitting and the fine pitching of Jason Vargas, it did not matter.

The ugliness of the game was punctuated by the 3rd inning where the Mariners sent 9 guys to the plate, had 1 hit, hit one ball out of the infield and still scored 3 runs. Here is the play by play:

C Peguero hit by pitch.
I Suzuki walked, C Peguero to second.
B Ryan sacrificed into fielder’s choice to catcher, C Peguero to third, I Suzuki to second.
J Smoak walked, C Peguero scored, I Suzuki to third, B Ryan to second.
J Cust grounded out to first, I Suzuki scored, B Ryan to third, J Smoak to second.
F Gutierrez lined out to shortstop.
A Kennedy intentionally walked.
M Olivo reached on infield single to third, B Ryan scored, J Smoak to third, A Kennedy to second.
C Figgins lined out to center.

This could have been a much bigger inning if the Mariners managed to put a ball in play that went more than 90 feet. It is a fundamental problem with this team, but that is for another post.

In other Mariners news, before the game they sent down Michael Saunders to Tacoma and called up Greg Halman. I am not a big fan of Halman, he strikes out way too much and doesn’t take walks, but do we really need to carry 5 outfielders? The M’s seem committed to trucking Peguero and his .170 BA out to LF every day and they have Mike Wilson on the bench as a backup OF. Halman is not going to play every day, so why not leave him in Tacoma where he can get regular AB’s instead of riding the bench in the bigs?