Category: MLB

Revisiting Expectations

By Blaidd Drwg

I said in this post that I would revisit the points I made about the Mariners at the end of the month, so that is what I am doing.

The team went 5-9 in the interim, losing 8 in a row and then winning 4 out of 5, so this team is definitely going to be Jekyll and Hyde all season.

My points for review:

1)      These boots are made for walking – Zunino and Miller specifically were my targets and they had combined for 1 walk in 84 plate appearances in the original article. Well, they improved to 3 walks in 159 – 2 for Miller and one for Zunino. It actually should be 2 in 159; the Zunino walk was intentional, when they were playing in Florida, with the pitcher due up next. So Mike Zunino has exactly 0 unintentional walks this season in 74 plate appearances. That is terrible. About the only thing keeping him in the lineup at this point is pitchers continue to throw him pitches near the strike zone and he has turned them into hits. At some point they will figure out the guy can’t hit or lay off a curve ball out of the zone. Miller probably would have played himself back to Tacoma at this point if it weren’t for the fact there is no better option. Nick Franklin can’t play short and Willie Bloomquist can’t hit, so you are stuck with Miller and his 3 for 32 slump, except when you get to see Willie Bloomquist in the lineup, which is much too often these days. The walks have been a team issue – they are 14th in the AL in runs, just 9 ahead of the Astros and last in the league in walks.

2)      Under pressure – Cano won’t be allowed to hit with runners on base. I was wrong; he has only drawn 5 walks in 34 PA with runners on, and has hit a whopping .241 in those situations. Maybe teams will pitch to him as long as he continues to not do anything with guys on.

3)      Round and round – the M’s OF is a mess. It continues to be a mess. Ackley is the best of the bunch with a .256/.298/.372 slash line. Romero/Saunders/Almonte have shown nothing at bat and the fielding has been less than stellar. Time to trade Nick Franklin and an arm for Andre Ethier and his insane contract. He can’t be worse than what the M’s are trucking out there right now.

4)      Hot mess – the M’s rotation. Iwakuma is still a couple weeks from coming back, Walker has been shut down indefinitely, Ramirez and Maurer have pitched their way out of the rotation and even Felix hasn’t looked great in his last few starts. It will probably get worse before it gets better when it comes to starting pitching.

Are we having fun yet? Lets revisit again at the end of May.

Celebrating Hank Aaron “The Old-Fashioned Way”

By Blaidd Drwg

Yep, baseball “purists” just can’t let the steroid thing go, even when we should be celebrating achievement, like the anniversary of Hank Aaron’s 715th HR. The guy was receiving tons of hate mail and death threats during his pursuit of Ruth’s record and that did not stop him. Apparently kept all of the letters, I really hope they get published someday, it would be an interesting look into the racism that existed in the early 70’s, but I digress. There were speeches and videos to commemorate on April 8th, and this stupid comment by Braves chairman Terry McGuirk

“[Aaron] set the home run record the old-fashioned way”

…

“You will always be the home run king of all time.”

Yep, Aaron set the HR record the old-fashioned way, by loading up on greenies (which he admitted to) and possibly other things of a performance enhancing nature. Enough of the sanctimonious bullshit with players prior to 1987 being clean. They weren’t, but let’s not have the truth get in the way of a good story. Until MLB basically wipes 1987-2004’s stats off the record books, the single season and career home run record holder is Barry Bonds, whether you like it or not. Just deal with it.

Having this discussion with a “purist” is a lot like this:

Tempering Expectations

By Blaidd Drwg

I am writing this on a Monday and it will be posted on a Friday, so I am issuing the disclaimer that things may change in-between, but this makes my point.

The Mariners spent the first 12ish days of the season in first place. Everyone here was overly excited that they started the season 3-0 and that the team was poised to make a playoff run. Let me put that into perspective for you. Three games is roughly 1.8% of the baseball season. It would be like declaring that your team has turned it around and is making a playoff run approximately 1 quarter into the first game in the NFL season. Sample size people, sample size.

Well, since the Mariners torrid 3-0 start, they have managed to go just 3-5 to drop 1.5 games behind the A’s. Did you realize that the M’s had 4 winning streaks of at least 3 games last season, including an 8 game winning streak. No one got excited over those.

I think that the last 8 games are a better indicator of this team than the first 3, based on my predictions earlier this year, but there are a few very disturbing trends that should start sending out warnings to the management of this team. Yes, we are dealing with sample size issues here, and they shouldn’t start really being a concern until the end of the month, but they are things that an eye should be kept on.

1)      The Mariners aren’t drawing any walks lately – particularly Brad Miller and Mike Zunino. Actually that is a bit of an understatement, because Zunino and Miller have combined for exactly 1 walk in 84 plate appearances. An average hitter will draw a walk in roughly 9% of his plate appearances, which means that these guys should have drawn about 8 walks by now. This is a potentially dangerous stat for the M’s because Zunino already has a reputation for chasing breaking stuff out of the zone. Things will probably change as the sample size increases, but if the walk rates for these guys stay this low, they are going to have to both hit over .300 just to be getting on base at a reasonable rate of around .320. It is a team issue too – the M’s drew 15 walks in their first 3 games and scored 26 runs (there is a significant correlation between walks and scoring runs). In their last 8 games, they have drawn 18 and only scored 19 runs, including being shut out twice. Pitchers tend to make mistakes with runners on base, so with guys not getting on, pitchers have the advantage.

2)      Robinson Cano is not going to be allowed to hit with runners on base unless the bats behind him wake up. Cano has just 4 RBI and 2 extra base hits in 11 games and has been walked intentionally 3 times already this season. It may not seem like a lot, but it is in this small sample size. Justin Smoak lit up spring training and was hot the first 3 games of the season and then his bat fell asleep once pitchers made adjustments. Seager is batting .121, Corey Hart is hitting a wearing his sunglasses at night .188, Logan Morrison is batting .150. Granted those averages will regress to the mean, but how long will it be before Robby gets pissed off that this is happening.

3)      The M’s need to figure out the OF situation. The entire outfield rotation of Romero/Hart/Morrison/Saunders/Almonte has looked lost at the plate and in the field this year (although Ackley is looking better than he has since his rookie season). They need to sort out who should be getting the bulk of the playing time and just stick with them and let them figure it out.

4)      The pitching staff, despite some nice starts, is a mess. Iwakuma and Walker are out longer than anticipated (and I don’t think you will see Walker back before the middle of May). Paxton is on the DL and I am sure they are being cautious with him also. You never know what you are going to get from Ramirez and Elias and the back of the rotation is Chris Young, who hasn’t pitched in 2 years and Blake Bevan, who has never really shown any ability to get MLB hitters out consistently. This is why I have cautioned Mariner fans not to get overly excited about their pitching – they went from it being strength to a weakness in a hurry. Just takes a pulled muscle here and there and you lose 60% of your starters.

Let’s revisit this in a couple of weeks and see if the M’s made any real adjustments to fix the situations described above before they really become issues.

Baseball’s Jackie Robinson Day — Here’s The Thing…

by A.J. Coltrane

Major League Baseball honors Jackie Robinson once each year by having all of the players wear the number 42, which was Robinson’s number.

That’d be fine, I think. But they go one step further and remove the player names from the backs of the uniforms.

Which makes it very difficult for me to watch:

“Who the hell is that?”

I say to myself.

Over and over and over again.

So the one day I won’t watch baseball is… Jackie Robinson Day.

And I was kinda looking forward to hanging out with the Mariners tonight.

Jose Fernandez in 2014

By Blaidd Drwg

Jose Fernandez has a goal for his sophomore season – to have an ERA of 1.95. Not a bad goal for a 21ish year old who pitches in a pitcher’s park. David Schoenfield had a great article about that here.

Fernandez posted a 2.19 ERA in his rookie season. Pretty damn impressive, so what are the chances that he does it again?

One of my favorite things that he mentioned in the article:

Look, I wouldn’t bet on a 1.95 ERA but I wouldn’t bet against him either. Since 1950, only 15 different starting pitchers have had least two seasons with an ERA under 2.25. Since 1980, only three have done it — Greg Maddux (five times), Pedro Martinez (four) and Roger Clemens (three).

Odds are definitely against him, but scoring in the league is down, so you never know. My point in posting this – If you don’t think that Pedro Martinez belongs in the HOF, think about the above statement. In the expansion era, which saw the highest scoring in baseball history, Pedro Martinez had an ERA below 2.25 four times and an ERA less than 3.00 another 4 times, including 2002 when his ERA just missed the cutoff at 2.26. Oh, and his ERA+ during that stretch from 1997 to 2005? Just a lousy 187. That is Sandy Koufax dominant folks (actually it is significantly more dominating than Koufax, but that is for another post).

I Don’t Know Why You Say Goodbye…

By Blaidd Drwg

 

…I say hello. Why do I have the feeling I have used that one before? Anyway, just a couple of tidbits from the transaction wire on opening day.

Heeee's baaaaaack!
Heeee’s baaaaaack!

Vlad Guerrero signs a one day contract with the Angels and retires.

Vladdy probably would be a HOFer if he had not spent most of his prime years playing in Montreal. He will forever be remembered by me for 3 specific things:

1)      In 2002 in the last game of the season in Montreal, wrapping a double in the 5th inning of the game to tie the Expos single season hit record with 206 and getting a tremendous ovation for it. For years, that score card hung on my wall.

2)      In 2003 in the last game of the season in Montreal (see a pattern here), getting pulled from the game in the 7th inning after taking the field for warm-ups. It was known that Vladdy was going to be signing somewhere else in the off-season (the Expos weren’t going to attempt to keep him) as a free agent and he was loved the way that Dawson, Raines and Carter were in that city. He trotted off the field to a 5 minute standing ovation and 2 curtain calls. I have never seen anything like that before or since and that is how a departing player who is that loved should be sent off.

3)      In 2004, after signing with the Angels, was a 10-1 shot for AL MVP. Vlad had been murdering the ball in the NL for the last 4 seasons and I liked the odds. I put down a c-note on that line. Needless to say, he paid for my 2005 trip to Vegas.

Of course, in what seems like it should have been an April Fool’s joke, Vlad signed his contract on the field before last night’s Angels game and was honored with throwing out the first pitch to the only other player in Angels history to win an MVP – Don Baylor. Baylor received the pitch and then proceeded to break his leg trying to catch the pitch. Seriously.

The Diamondbacks announced the retirement of C Henry Blanco and added him to their coaching staff .

Henry Blanco is 42 and has hit about .150 over the last 2 seasons and probably should have started his coaching career years ago. I will be honest, I had absolutely no idea he was still even playing until this article a couple of days ago.

Grady Sizemore makes the Red Sox opening day roster.

Not only that, but he is their starting CF! It is a great comeback story for a guy who has missed most of the last few seasons with injuries, but I can’t help thinking that he is going to break down about a week after he has to play a few cold weather games. My guess, he is on the DL before April 15th.

The hyphen is back!

Ryan Rowland–Smith made the Dbacks roster. You remember him – failed M’s pitching prospect from Down Under who imploded in 2010 and then dropped off the planet. Well, he is finally back in the bigs after 4 seasons in the minors. Hopefully he sticks around, I always did like him.

Mad Libs: The 2014 Mariners Starting Rotation Edition

By Blaidd Drwg

Let’s play a game of Mad Libs:

The Mariners 2014 rotation to start the season will be Felix Hernandez, Erasmo Ramirez, James Paxton, (Insert name of failed M’s prospect) and (Insert name of another M’s failed prospect).

Remember, Iwakuma and Walker are out for at least the first 2 weeks of the season. The Mariners released their scrap heap recalmation candidates, Scott Baker and Randy Wolf on Tuesday and they were the 2 most likely guys to start for the Mariners coming out of spring training. I am guessing that the other 2 spots are going to go to Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan, and yes, I am serious about that. They would only have to make 3 spots assuming that Iwakuma and Walker are back when they are supposed to be back (the M’s schedule in the 2nd week of the season has enough off days that they don’t need a 5th starter), but there is a huge risk to this team gaining any real traction if they have to slog through 3 potentially disastrous starts. Other than 3 games in Miami and 2 in NY, all of the rest of the games in the first month of the season are against AL West opponents, and only 3 of the 22 games are against the Astros.

If the M’s don’t get back Iwakuma and Walker when expected and/or Ramirez and Paxton are not as good as advertised, this is going to be a long season yet again – the M’s have absolutely no depth in their starting rotation right now. I bet the backup plan is to trade Nick Franklin for a middle of the road starter if someone flames out.

The Mariners and Spending Money

By Blaidd Drwg

Reason #124342423 that Jack Zdurencik will be fired this season and the Mariners will continue hopelessly spinning their wheels. This is from a Jim Bowden article on ESPN.com:

Several general managers told me they don’t understand how the Seattle Mariners could give Robinson Cano almost a quarter-billion dollars and then claim not to have the money to bring back Kendrys Morales or make a run at Ervin Santana.

Seattle is emboldened by its lucrative local television deal, but many general managers are wondering what the Mariners’ plan is. How does a team spend that much money and go from fourth-best in the division to … fourth-best in the division. The Mariners haven’t really improved at all, and with so many needs they would have been better off spreading the money around.

Cano complained a few weeks back about the team not spending any money. I don’t think that he was wrong, and it appears that other MLB GM’s feel the same way. I am starting to think that the Cano signing was just to try to keep season ticket holders from defecting (I am still glad that I did not renew my tickets) and not about trying to make the team better. Unless they catch lightning in a bottle from about 5 of the guys in their lineup, this is basically a .500 team.

And for my next prediction – the Taijuan Walker shoulder tightness will end up being more serious than expected and he will need major surgery at some point before the end of the season and be out for all of 2015.

Isn’t It Ironic?

By Blaidd Drwg

February 7th was Babe Ruth’s birthday and on that date Dave Schoenfield posted a quick hit about it. He included this wonderfully ironic bit in the piece:

This is also the 100th anniversary of the start of his career. Ruth made his debut with the Red Sox on July 11, starting against the Indians. He allowed eight hits in seven innings and — get this — was removed for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the inning, picking up the win when the Red Sox scored to take the lead.

I just love the irony of that.

The Randomness of Closers

By Blaidd Drwg

Note: It appears that I wrote this in July of 2013 and never bothered to post it. I found it when cleaning off my hard drive. Lucky you, you get to read it now.

Dave Schoenfield has a nice little piece on ESPN.com about the shelf life of closers. It goes along with what I have been saying for years – your bullpen is a bunch of interchangeable parts. Sure you get the mutants like Mo Rivera or Trevor Hoffman, who remain effective for very long periods of time, but if you are a GM, you probably A) don’t want to spend huge amounts of money on a “proven” closer, and B) want to keep an eye out for the guy who will be your closer in 2 years.

Scoenfield uses 2011 as an example:

Look at the major league save leaders from 2011: Jose Valverde, Kimbrel, John Axford, J.J. Putz, Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Joel Hanrahan, Francisco Cordero, Brandon League, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Perez, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, Jordan Walden, Neftali Feliz, Ryan Madson, Jonathan Papelbon, Sergio Santos.

That’s 19 closers who all saved at least 30 games. Only four are still doing the job — the three guys Buster mentioned, plus Papelbon, who switched teams (or five if you count Bell in Arizona, although his hold on the role is tenuous). Joe Nathan missed part of 2011 with an injury, so count him as well if you want, although he too has changed teams. By the way, most of those 19 guys were pretty good in 2011; 14 had an ERA under 3.00.

So where are these guys now? Here is the list:

Player 2011 Team 2013 Team 2013 Role
Jose Valverde Tigers None Didn’t resign until May; released by Detroit after 9 games.
Craig Kimbrell Braves Braves Closer
John Axford Brewers Brewers Set-up man;  lost closer role   early 2013
JJ Putz Diamondbacks Diamondbacks Set-up man; lost closer role early 2013.
Mariano Rivera Yankees Yankees Closer
Heath Bell Padres Diamondbacks Closer (only because JJ Putz got hurt); did lose job with Miami in   2012.
Drew Storen Nationals Nationals Set-up man; lost job in 2012.
Joel Hanrahan Pirates Red Sox Closer before getting hurt in early 2013; out for season.
Francisco Cordero Reds None Couldn’t win closer role in 2012 for Blue Jays or Astros, currently   out of baseball.
Juan Carlos Oviedo Marlins Rays Currently injured; hasn’t pitched since 2011.
Brian Wilson Giants None Hurt early in 2012, hasn’t pitched since.
Carlos Marmol Cubs Dodgers Lost role in both 2012 and 2013, currently in Dodgers minor league   system.
Jordan Walden Angels Braves Lost role in 2012 with Angels; set-up man for Braves.
Neftali Perez Rangers Rangers Converted to starter in 2012; currently injured.
Ryan Madson Phillies Angels Injured in 2012, hasn’t pitched since.
Jonathan Papelbon Red Sox Phillies Closer
Sergio Santos White Sox Blue Jays Lost job early in 2012, got hurt and has barely pitched since.