Josh Beckett

By Blaidd Drwg

According to ESPN, the Red Sox will not offer Josh Beckett a 5 year deal, similar to the one that they gave John Lackey this off-season. I personally am not a big fan of Josh Beckett – for all of his talent, he has been very inconsistent over his career and seems to be on an every other year schedule of having a good season, and I don’t think giving a 5 year deal to a pitcher over 30 is a good deal to begin with, but this seems a bit odd to me. A comparison of the two over the last 4 seasons:

	Josh Beckett			John Lackey
	IP	ERA+	Salary	IP	ERA+	Salary
2006	204.2	95	4,325,000	217.2	129	3,334,000
2007	200.2	145	6,666,667	224.0	150	5,833,333
2008	174.1	115	10,166,666	163.1	119	7,333,333
2009	212.1	122	11,166,666	176.1	118	10,000,000

Th have roughly the same value and made very comparable salaries over those seasons. Their value is actually so close, that the #1 comp for each of them on Baseball-Reference is the other – and the similarity score is 971, so that is damn close. The other 3 close comps among active pitchers for Josh Beckett – Chris Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy – all of whom signed big money, long term contracts with their respective teams.

I thought that the Sox made a huge mistake in giving 5 years to Lackey, who while good, has shown some tendency to be injured over the last couple of seasons and I think the Sox are going to regret years 4 and 5 of that deal when they are paying $18+ million a year for slightly above league average pitching. It is probably all just a ploy by the Sox to try to get Beckett signed for under the going rate for a front of the rotation starter, but it will be interesting to see how it works out for them. Josh Beckett is going to get his 5 yr/$80+ million contract, the question is, which team will give it to him.

In what world does this make sense?

by Blaidd Drwg

It appears the Phillies have had internal discussions about making a trade offer of Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. The Cardinals would be insane to take that deal – Howard is older than Pujols, he is not nearly as good as a defender, not even close to being in the same league as a hitter and can’t really hit lefties all that well. They are both FA’s after the 2011 season and I can’t imagine there will be more than about a 6 or 7 million per annum difference in their contracts. Besides, would you really want to take the chance on the guy who’s body type does not age well and will probably be a DH in 3-4 years anyway?

A Baseball Era Comes to a Close – A Followup

by Blaidd Drwg

Back on 2/16, I posted this:
“Outside of Adam Dunn and Jack Cust (the 3 True Outcome Crew), Tug Hulett (don’t ask), Jason Kendall and Brian Giles (who are both looking like they should hang ‘em up), I just don’t really follow any individual player that closely.”

Well, I happened to be looking through the transactions for the week today, and I noticed this that somehow slipped below my radar:

Dodgers – Announced the retirement of OF Brian Giles.

His knee had gotten so bad that he couldn’t continue playing. I am going to miss seeing one of the most underrated players of the ’00’s and a truly nice guy. Looks like I was right about him needing to retire. Now if Jason Kendall would just do the same…

Were the 2009 Mariners any better than the 1990 Mariners?

by Blaidd Drwg

With the plethora of predictions for the Mariners 2010 season out, it got me thinking, how did a team which scored 640 runs in 2009 manage to win 85 games. Their expected wins were 75 based on run differential and they managed to get lucky and win 35 games by 1 run. I really think this was closer to a 75 win team that got lucky than an 85 win team that was that good (winning close games really isn’t a function of anything other than luck), so I wanted to take a look at the other AL teams in the expansion era that scored 640 runs or less. I did pro-rate the 1994 and 1995 seasons to 162 games to even things out for those seasons. I also expanded the list to include any teams who scored more than 640 runs but were within 30 of the Mariners totals. The list:

Year/Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Diff	Wins
2002 Tigers	575	864	-289	55
2003 Tigers	591	928	-337	43
1998 Devil Rays	620	751	-131	63
2009 Mariners	640	692	-52	85
2008 A’s	646	690	-44	75
1997 Blue Jays	654	694	-40	76
2002 Orioles	667	773	-106	67

Interesting that the M’s are the only team on that list to go better than .500. There are some historically bad teams and just looking at runs scored and runs allowed, the M’s best comp are the 2008 A’s, who are almost a dead on comp – the A’s scored 6 more runs than the M’s and gave up 2 fewer. The difference really was the A’s were essentially a .500 team in 1 run games at 25-24. Yes, a lot has been made about how good the M’s defense was last season and I don’t think the A’s were a particularly great fielding team, but is the defense really worth 10 wins over the run differential? I guess we will see how this plays out in 2010.

So all of this got me thinking, is there another M’s team that looks comparable? The closest I found was the 1990 M’s who managed a 75-87 record, scoring 640 runs and allowing 680. Digging down, there are an amazing number of similarities between 2009 and 1990 versions of the teams – They both had relatively young pitching staffs, they both played in stadiums that were slightly pitching friendly, neither team got any real production from their Catcher or Shortstops, they both had marginal starters with career years (Jarrod Washburn and Erik Hanson) and both teams had solid bullpens and above average starting pitching. They were both extremely good defensive teams.

Here are the stats comps:

Batting

AVG	OPS	OPS+	HR	BB
.258	.716	90	160	421	2009 M’s
.259	.706	97	107	596	1990 M’s

Pitching

ERA	ERA+	IP	WHIP	SO
3.87	112	1452.2	1.3035	1043	2009 M’s
3.72	106	1443.1	1.3339	1064	1990 M’s

The 2009 edition was a bit better pitching, which makes sense considering they were a bit better defensively and the 1990 team was a bit better offensively thanks to the huge difference in walks compared to their 2009 counterparts.

So what happened in 1991? The M’s went 83-79 for their first winning season in franchise history. The only significant change to the lineup was replacing a truly awful Jeffrey Leonard with Jay Buhner and Ken Griffey Jr becoming a superstar. The pitching staff was slightly better, despite significantly WORSE defense:

Field Runs Above Avg	Zone Field Runs Above Avg
50.4	55.4	1990
-28.7	-32.7	1991

I am a firm believer in advanced defensive metrics and I believe that you need a solid defensive team in the field, but I am really at a loss to explain how the 1990 and 1991 teams could be so different defensively and still gave up roughly the same number of runs.

I am skeptical about 2010 Mariners team. They downgraded their offense, so 640 runs in 2010 might be a stretch, they still have too many free swingers in the lineup, and I am not sure that the pitching (starting and relieving beyond Lee and Felix) will repeat their 2009 performances. My prediction – 77 to 80 wins for this team IF Felix and Lee are healthy and pitch a full season with the team.

Ozzie Guillen and Twitter

by Coltrane

Ozzie Guillen has decided to join Twitter.

“That’s why the world is all screwed up,” he said. “I want to say [bleep] off, but I can’t. All of a sudden, we’re worrying about something that is personal. I wanted to do something that is fun off the field. All of a sudden, they’re making a big deal of this thing …

“I feel like I was doing something wrong. People are treating me like I was a murderer or something, or steal someone’s money or didn’t pay my taxes.”

Guillen said he spoke to Sox general manager Ken Williams about his new hobby, although Williams appeared to be caught off guard when a reporter from the Sun-Times asked him about it and he responded with a “No comment.”

“If this thing bothers the White Sox or Kenny or Jerry [Reinsdorf], then we’ll talk about it,” Guillen said. “I talked to Kenny about it. I said what it was. He can see what I say. If that thing offends anyone, beat it, because I didn’t do anything wrong.

“This has nothing to do with the organization or baseball. It’s my life. I don’t know why people are making a big deal of it. All of a sudden it’s Ozzie Guillen. I didn’t know how famous I was. That’s pretty interesting. I thought people hate me.”

Ozzie is well known to have a short path between his brain and his mouth. The odds are slim that this ends well, though it should be entertaining while it lasts.

A baseball era comes to a close

by Blaidd Drwg

An era in baseball is coming to a close. It is not something that you will hear people talking about for years to come, but it is more of an era that is defined by events in your lifetime. For me, 1988 really marked the beginning of what I will call the “Baseball Junkie Era” – I was always a fan, I had my heart crushed in 1986 by the Red Sox (it was not helped by living in NJ in a house with 3 Mets fans) and I had been to my fair share of games at Yankee and Shea Stadiums and the Vet in Philly. Why was ’88 so special? It was a coming together of several factors. It was the first time I played fantasy baseball. It was a head to head league and I managed to win a few dollars. It was my first trip to Fenway Park. It was a lousy, wet weekend in July when we ventured up I-95 to Boston to see the Sox play the Sox. It was in the middle of the “Morgan’s Miracle” streak. It was also when I realized that there was more to baseball stats for hitters than BA, HR and RBI, thanks to Larry Parrish (that is a story for another post).

Why is this all important? Between 1988 and about 1992, a series of players broke into the big leagues, who, in one way or another, impacted the way that I look at the game and really made me the baseball junkie I am today. Everyone will recognize their names – Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio, Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Piazza, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Thome, Palmeiro, Randy Johnson – the list goes on (and includes the extremely underrated Kevin Appier, Duane Ward and Jeff Montgomery). It was when I transitioned from cheering for teams (I still love the Cubs and Red Sox – just not the way I used to) to following players. Oh, sure, I could still recite the lineup for the ’84 Cubs in my sleep and still consider guys like Durham, Davis, Trout and Moreland some of my favorite all time players, but the guys I listed truly made the game special to watch. I could spend pages writing about my memories of seeing those guys play (As I write this, I am thinking which was more memorable – seeing Bagwell launch a HR off the Coke Bottles at Fenway and getting a standing O as he rounded the bases, or seeing Rafael Palmeiro rap a double down the left field line at Safeco for his 3,000^th career hit), but I am not going to do that. Through these players, I expanded my knowledge and understanding of the game, and it actually made it more enjoyable to watch.

So why the trip down memory lane? I woke up this morning, launched my browser to ESPN and saw this headline: Big Hurt decides to retire after 19 seasons. That, coupled with Glavine hanging it up made me realize, there aren’t many guys left from that era. Griffey is still around (but really looks like he should hang them up) and Thome is still hanging on, but the rest, well they are off to the links to enjoy the rest of their lives. Enjoy your retirement, Frank, and thanks for the Fantasy Baseball titles you helped me win in ’93, ’94 and ’95. We will see you in Cooperstown in 2014.

I am still as big a baseball fan as ever, maybe even more these days, I just don’t have the attachment to the players that I used to. Outside of Adam Dunn and Jack Cust (the 3 True Outcome Crew), Tug Hulett (don’t ask), Jason Kendall and Brian Giles (who are both looking like they should hang ‘em up), I just don’t really follow any individual player that closely. I really don’t know why. With the internet and the MLB package on cable, I can watch any game and find out any information I want. I would think that I would have a list of players that I would follow, but I don’t. I finally understand why people who I have talked to who grew up watching the game in the ‘40’s and ’50s told me the game was just not the same for them to watch later in life. You form attachments, you see them grow and develop and unfortunately, they end at some point. As much as you try to form new ones, they never are the same.

I am looking forward to the start of the season. It could be an interesting one for the M’s, I get to see the Cubbies come to town this summer, the Sox and Yankees will once again slug it out in the AL East and countless other memories will be created as the year progresses. I think when the Twins come to town and Jim Thome steps up to the plate, a single person a Safeco is going to give him a standing ovation with a tear in his eye, just to say “Thanks for the memories, Jim.”