I happened to be leafing through the Mariners Media guide and I noticed this table:
Youngest Mariners to Make Their Debut with the Team
Player
Age
Debut
Edwin Nunez
18 yrs, 315 days
April 7, 1982
Alex Rodriguez
18 yrs, 346 days
July 8, 1994
Felix Hernandez
19 yrs, 119 days
August 4, 2005
Ken Griffey Jr
19 yrs, 133 days
April 3, 1989
An impressive list to say the least – 2 guys who are no doubt HOFers, a guy who is on his way to being one andEdwin Nunez? He actually had a few decent seasons over his 13 year career. I had forgotten that he was actually a useful reliever for most of his career. Thought it was appropriate seeing as the Mariners wore their 1982 throwback unis yesterday in Milwaukee.
The other tidbit I noticed was a trend in Felix Hernandez HR’s allowed and his ERA. Here is his career:
Year
IP
HR Allowed
ERA
HR per 9 Innings
2005
84.1
5
2.67
0.5
2006
191.0
23
4.52
1.1
2007
190.1
20
3.92
0.9
2008
200.2
17
3.45
0.8
2009
238.2
15
2.49
0.6
2010
112.2
9
3.28
0.7
A very interesting trend to say the least, but not surprising – his ERA goes down when he doesn’t give up the long ball. Probably not ground breaking, but I thought it was interesting.
With the demotion of Ian Snell last week, it got me thinking about the main piece the Mariners gave up to acquire Snell and Jack Wilson – Jeff Clement. The 2005 MLB draft was one of the best in recent history – 33 out of the 48 players drafted in the first round have seen some major league action and a number of them are going to be superstars for years to come: Tulowitzki, Upton, Zimmerman and Braun. The Mariners had the 3rd pick in the draft in 2005, and with that selection Bill Bavasi took Jeff Clement, a power hitting catcher out of USC who scouting report showed a MLB bat but indictated he would probably not be a catcher at the major league level due to his defense. This was a deep draft – the two players taken ahead of Clement were Justin Upton and Alex Gordon. Zimmerman, Tulo, Braun and a gaggle of other good players were taken after Clement. So where did the Mariners go wrong in this draft?
This is pure speculation on my part, but I think that Bavasi drafted for need rather than taking the best player available. Here is the rest of the top 10 after Clement:
Player
Team
Position
Ryan Zimmerman
Nationals
3B
Ryan Braun
Brewers
3B
Ricky Romero
Blue Jays
SP
Troy Tulowitzki
Rockies
SS
Wade Townsend
Devil Rays
SP
Mike Pelfrey
Mets
SP
Cameron Maybin
Tigers
OF
I figure that if the Mariners would not have picked Clement, they would have taken one of the guys on the above list. Zimmerman, Braun and Tulo are all at or just below the superstar level in the majors. Romero and Pelfrey are bordering on being above average starters; Maybin is looking overmatched, but is still young and may turn it around. Townsend blew out his elbow, was terrible in the minors anyway and will probably never pitch in the majors.
Why a catcher? The M’s did not have any real catching prospects in their system in 2005, so it was definitely something they needed. Bavasi was probably thinking that they were set at 3B – they had Adrian Beltre signed to a long term deal. They had their SS of the future in Yuniesky Betancourt. They had Jeremy Reed in the OF, who, at the time, looking like he was going to be an above average player. They didn’t have a 1B prospect, so maybe the thinking was that if Clement flames out as a catcher, they can put him at 1B or DH. I don’t justify it and I think, even without the benefit of hindsight, I would have probably gone with Tulowitzki, just because you can always move a power hitting SS to another position if you need to and you go with the best available player when you have as many holes as the Mariners have.
So, how poorly did this work out for the Mariners? Here is the same list as above with Clement, Upton and Gordon added:
Player
Draft Pos
WAR
Career OPS+/ERA+
Justin Upton
1
6.5
109
Alex Gordon
2
3.8
97
Jeff Clement
3
-1.3
74
Ryan Zimmerman
4
14.2
118
Ryan Braun
5
11.2
142
Ricky Romero
6
5.4
113
Troy Tulowitzki
7
15.5
110
Wade Townsend
8
Mike Pelfrey
9
4.6
98
Cameron Maybin
10
1.6
80
Andrew McCutchen
11
5.8
127
Townsend is easily the biggest bust of the top 10 – he was drafted in the top 10 in both 2004 (8th by the Orioles) and in 2005 and managed a stellar 5.58 ERA in the minors before blowing out his arm. The irony in this is that the Rays managed to stockpile a stable of young arms in the 2003-2006 drafts, most of which now make up their rotation, so you have to give them a bit of a flyer on this one. Besides Townsend, Clement is clearly the biggest bust of the top 10. He is the only player on the list to be significantly below average from this top 10. I really do think Maybin will eventually turn it around – he was drafted out of HS, he is only 23 and he was really rushed to the majors by the Marlins. Clement is going to be 27 in August and has never shown any ability to hit MLB pitching – heck, he has been so bad that he was demoted to the minors by the PIRATES, one of the worst hitting teams in the majors.
How bad of a pick was Clement overall? Here is the worst of the first round (only guys who have played in the majors):
Player
Draft Position
Team
WAR
OPS+/ERA+
Current Team
Jeff Clement
3
Mariners
-1.3
74
Indianapolis (AAA)
Trevor Crowe
14
Indians
-0.5
75
Indians
Cesar Carrillo
18
Padres
-1.1
29
Portland (AAA)
Craig Hansen
26
Red Sox
-2.2
73
Out of Baseball
Ryan Tucker
34
Marlins
-1.3
53
New Orleans (AAA)
Trevor Bell
37
Angels
-1.5
55
Angels
Luke Hochevar
40*
Dodgers
-0.8
77
Royals
Garrett Olson
48
Orioles
-2.4
69
Mariners
Note: Hochevar did not sign with the Dodgers and was the #1 overall pick in 2006 by the Royals
Not the worst WAR of the group, but considering that the top 10 average WAR is somewhere north of 5, and he is the 3rd overall pick, I will say his pick was a disaster. You can make the argument that he at least made the majors, 15 of the first rounders from that draft did not, although about 5 of those 15 were drafted out of high school, are 23 years old and still have a pretty good shot at making the majors in some capacity. Also, all of the players on this list, except for Crowe and Clement, are pitchers.
I do think it is funny that Zduriencik traded Clement, who is probably the biggest bust of the hitters in the 1st round of the 2005 draft and worked to get Garrett Olson who has been one of the worst pitchers to come out of the 2005 first round.
Jamie Moyer and the Phillies defeated the Yankees last night by a score of 6-3. The win makes Moyer the oldest pitcher to beat the Yankees, at 47 years and 112 days.
The day before that, my mom and I were talking about Stephen Strasburg. She made the statement that “pitchers don’t last as long.” I disagreed, citing guys like Nolan Ryan (for long careers) and Mark Fidrych (for short). I said that so long as Strasburg’s arm doesn’t blow up he could expect to have a longer career than most similarly talented hitters. I thought that it should be easier for an older pitcher to throw the ball than for an older batter to try to hit it.
Here’s the chart, longevity for players with careers starting after 1950:
Seasons
Pitchers
Hitters
Total Players
27
1
0
1
26
1
0
1
25
2
1
3
24
6
3
9
23
3
8
11
22
8
13
21
21
9
12
21
20
4
15
19
Total
34
52
86
For players with 24 to 27 year careers the pitchers do indeed outnumber the hitters, 8 to 4.
For players with 20 to 23 year careers the hitters outnumber the pitchers, 48 to 26.
There have been more hitters than pitchers with 20+ year careers, a result that I hadn’t expected when I looked into this.
It appears that Ian Snell‘s up and down career with the Mariners has come to a close as the M’s have DFA’ed him, which means they have 10 days to waive, trade or option him to the minors. If I am not mistaken, he has enough service time to refuse the demotion and become a free agent.
What do you want to bet he ends up with the Royals in the next week and a half? They seem to enjoy picking up the chaff that is cut loose from the M’s (although the Royals currently have a better record than the M’s), and Snell might actually improve their rotation.
I remember the pursuit for 4,192 back in 1985 well. I also remember a few years ago that there was speculation that Rose was corking his bat during the run. Well, I guess we now have proof that he actually did.
Good thing the guy is banned from baseball and can’t get into the HOF. He is a cheater and was playing with an unfair advantage. If he ever becomes eligible, he should not be allowed in because of this (I don’t believe corking a bat really does anything anyway). No player who cheats should ever get in the Hall and any that cheated should be taken out. (I am being sarcastic, this is really not anything that I would keep someone out of the Hall for).
I happened to be looking at the MLB standings this morning and I noticed something interesting In the AL East:
Team
League Ranking
Runs Scored
League Ranking
Runs Allowed
Rays
3
4
Yankees
1 (tie)
9
Red Sox
1 (tie)
21
Blue Jays
4
13
The top 4 teams in the division are the top 4 scoring teams in baseball (think about that, all of MLB, not just the AL) as of this morning. The Yankees and Sox are both tied with 314 runs scored and the Rays and Jays are just slightly behind with 296 and 295 runs scored respectively. To put it into perspective, the Mariners currently rank 27th in runs scored with 203. The offense in the AL East is a good reason why the Blue Jays would be within half a game of the division lead in 3 of the divisions, within 1 game of one of them and leading the AL West, instead of being in 4th place in the East.
Maybe the M’s can learn something from this – considering the Sox, Yankees and Rays all “focused” on defense this offseason.
I was reading this blog and there was a statement that got me thinking about something (I will post the statement below). First, a little game of who is the best player on this list:
OPS+
MVP Won
MVP Top 5
WAR
RTZ
Player A
150
1
5
63.9
85
Player B
159
3
9
127.8
3
Player C
164
3
7
103.4
192
Player D
154
2
5
107.4
26
All of the players played the OF. Since we are looking at players from different eras, I thought that the counting stats (hits, HR, RBI, etc) would skew the perceptions, so I went with the stats that I thought would best compare the players. A note about player B – his RTZ is incomplete since not all of the data to compile the stat is available, but, based on what I have read, calling him a league average defender seems to be accurate. Looking at this chart, it is pretty clear that Player A is would probably be ranked #4 among these players, but it is really not clear who would be the best of the bunch (I would probably vote for player B).
Same chart, with a slight adjustment for players A and C:
OPS+
MVP Won
MVP Top 5
WAR
RTZ
Player A
135
1
5
78.4
-14
Player B
159
3
9
127.8
3
Player C
181
7
12
171.8
173
Player D
154
2
5
107.4
26
The best in this chart is pretty clear – it is Player C.
Now for the reveal:
Player A – Ken Griffey, Jr
Player B – Stan Musial
Player C – Barry Bonds
Player D – Frank Robinson
The first chart includes Griffey and Bonds stats through 1998; the second includes their whole careers. So what made me do this comparison? This little tidbit:
In 1999, when Major League Baseball and its fans chose their All-Century roster, Griffey was there, beating out the likes of Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, and Frank Robinson, to name a few. He was the face of baseball for a decade and, when he won his MVP award in 1997, it felt like he was certain to win many more.
I had forgotten that Bonds did not make the team (and he was arguably the best player in baseball at the time), but was surprised Frank Robby also failed to make it and that Musial was the last OF to make it (selected by a “blue ribbon” panel after the fan vote – he actually had fewer fan votes than Roberto Clemente), as they were also among the greatest players to play the game. I realize that like the All Star voting, the All Century team was about popularity more than actual greatness, and Griffey was the most popular player in the game in 1999, so the results should not be all that surprising. You also can’t make the “position argument” (they didn’t play the same positions) since the voting was not by position – all OFers were lumped together. In retrospect though, there were at least 3 players who appear to be more deserving.
Before anyone makes the Bonds/steroids comments – it is generally accepted that Bonds did not use anything prior to 2001, and no one can prove or disprove that either Bonds or Griffey were clean prior to 1999, so I don’t see any argument for the stats not being comparable.
The second chart is the full career numbers for all of the players. Bonds, just purely on raw numbers, is clearly the best on this list. If you want to take him out with the steroid argument, then take your pick – Musial or Robby. Either way, Griffey ranks #4.
The other thing that I noticed was just how badly Griffey’s career fell off a cliff. Here are the numbers for Griffey and Bonds from 1999 through the end of their careers:
OPS+
MVP Won
MVP Top 5
WAR
RTZ
Griffey
119
0
0
14.5
-99
Bonds
214
4
5
68.4
19
Griffey really only had 2 great seasons after age 28 (1999 and 2000) and became as fragile as a china doll after that, but that wasn’t really a surprise. What shocked me is how truly bad defensively he became. I guess that was to be expected as his health declined, but it really does make me question why the Reds continued to play him in CF when it was pretty obvious he couldn’t handle the position anymore.
Griffey is no doubt a first ballot HOFer but for all of the sappy sentimentalism that has been showered on him the past few days, I am not sure if you can legitimately make the argument for him as one of the 10 best OF in baseball history anymore.
In his New Historical Baseball Abstract (2001), Bill James lists 16 indicators that he believes can used to determine the quality of play in Major League Baseball. He calls these “Peripheral Quality Indicia”, or “PQL for short.” (An acronym that didn’t catch on, go figure.) Using Bob Lemon as an example, James writes about the fact that hitting by pitchers has declined steadily over the history of major league baseball, and that this is because the overall quality of play has improved with the passage of time.
The List, make a mental note of the items that are in bold:
1. Hitting by pitchers.
2. The average distance of players, in age, from 27.
3. The percentage of players who are less than six feet tall or more than 6’3″. [Ed: Percentage of players who differ from the ideal size for the sport.]
4. Fielding Percentage and Passed Balls.
5. Double Plays.
6. Usage of pitchers at other positions.
7. The percentage of fielding plays made by pitchers.
8. The percentage of games which are blowouts.
9. The average attendance and seating capacity of the game location.
10. The condition of the field.
11. The use of players in specialized roles.
12. The average distance of teams from .500.
13. The percentage of games that go nine innings.
14. The standard deviation of offensive effectiveness.
15. The standard of record-keeping.
16. The percentage of managers who have 20 years or more experience in the game.
James’ list looks specifically at major league baseball. I think that the items in bold apply to any sporting event. Take for example– a bunch of 13 year-old kids playing basketball at the playground. The kids are young and small, the rim’s probably bent and there are likely cracks in the blacktop, nobody is watching them play because nobody really cares who wins, and when somebody does win it might be by a score of around 15-5, and that’s if anyone is keeping score at all. It’s not good basketball, and by extension it isn’t much of a sporting event.
Competition has increased in the NFL too. It used to be that players were expected to play both offense and defense– to be “two-way players.” Frank Gifford played Running Back and Defensive Back. Pat Summerall played Tight End, Defensive End, and Kicked for good measure. They both played for the Giants in the late 50’s. The Giants had five positions covered by two guys in the “Greatest Game Ever Played“, the NFL Championship, in 1958. (The game also featured Vince Lombardi as the Giants Offensive Coordinator, and Tom Landry as their Defensive Coordinator– 17 Hall of Famers in all.) The NFL has now evolved to the point that in order to hold a job a player has to resemble whatever the idealized phenotype is for their position.
Where else can this be seen? Notable achievements in “Low Competition” settings include: Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak in 1941. The UCLA Bruins basketball winning streaks in the 60’s and 70’s. The UConn women’s basketball streaks (and their average winning margin of nearly 30 points) of the new millenium.
“High Competition” settings include: The development left-handed relief specialists in major league baseball. The explosion of sabermetrics and advanced statistics in baseball and basketball. Football now has “3rd down backs”, “nickle” defensive backs, specialized punters and kickers, and players that only return those kicks.
Probably the quickest and easiest way to know if it’s competitive? Look in the stands and see how many paying customers are at the event. If the spectators are all kids — if the crowd sounds like a Justin Bieber concert– it tells you all you need to know.
Bill James is from Kansas. Here’s probably the strangest music video ever made entitled Kansas, by The Wolfgang Press. Check out those creepy Kennedy masks! The way the song is mixed it seems to me that it’s intended to be listened to loud. Annoy the neighbors.
I also would like to point out that I scooped USS Mariner on their story about the pitch selection that Griffey is seeing this season – by almost 2 weeks. I would like to think they stole my idea, even if they didn’t.
Congrats to Mike Saunders on hitting his first big league home run. He made his mom extremely happy.
FlatbreadGarden 