by A.J. Coltrane

Rob Neyer’s last day at ESPN was today.

Neyer was the second sabermetrics guy I latched onto — after Bill James. He’s had a big impact over the years on the way I look at baseball.

Hopefully ESPN will bring in someone stats-oriented to fill that slot.

Best wishes to Rob Neyer for the future.

———————

[Update:  That was quick. Neyer has joined SB Nation less than 24 hours after leaving ESPN.  In Neyer’s words:]

“There are a lot of things to love about SB Nation, which is why I’m here. But among them is that they — excuse me, we — don’t see us as us and you as them,” Neyer wrote.” We’ve got bloggers who most professional writers probably consider them … but we know better.

“We know that some of our writers are every bit as talented and knowledgeable as anyone you’ll find working for newspapers or the Big Boy websites. We also know that today’s readers are tomorrow’s writers, and that often the only difference is opportunity.”

by A.J. Coltrane

Fangraphs has a feature that allows you to compare the career value of major league hitters in graph form. For example, here’s Dale Murphy, Kirby Puckett, and Andy Van Slyke.

They were more comparable than I might have guessed.

Or how about Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, and Ichiro?

That one illustrates the greatness of Boggs — he’s significantly better than some good company.

Last one — since we’ve been on the subject lately:  Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome. Note that Edgar was the most valuable every season from age 32-38. (Try sticking Bob Horner into the 4th slot and see what that looks like.)

Fun stuff.

By Blaidd Drwg

Joe Posnanski, long suffering Royals fan and quite possibly the best and most intelligent baseball writer on the planet, may have written the single best sarcastic piece on the Hall of Fame ever. You can find it here. If someone were ever stupid enough to put me in charge of a baseball team, Joe P. would be the first guy I would hire (and you won’t find a bigger Rob Neyer fan on the planet who isn’t related to him).

On an somewhat related note – why are arguably the 3 best baseball writers all Royals fans – Neyer, Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli? I could chalk it off to the suffering in a small market, but then why the hell can’t I name a single guy who writes about baseball and is a Pirates fan?

Joe P. is an impressive writer who spends a lot of time backing up his arguments. His latest piece however is sarcasm at its best (for those of you who know the Bad Wolf, you know he loves his sarcasm). Joe has as very logical argument for redefining the Hall of Fame, renaming it the Willie Mays Hall of Fame for the following reason:

I cannot tell you how many times in my life, much less in the last month, I have received emails that basically say something like: “Willie Mays — now THAT is a Hall of Famer. That is who I have in mind when I think of the Hall of Fame, not (Player X) who you wrote about.”

So, that’s my mission here — to create The Willie Mays Hall of Fame.

The article is written in typical Joe P. fashion – he gives the criteria for selection, the rules of the game and then goes about methodically analyzing the data.

I won’t tell you the conclusion, but lets just say I agree with him. If you are a baseball fan, or just a fan of sarcastic journalism, you should read the article.

On a side note – Coltrane – we need to add Joe P. to the blogroll.

 

By Blaidd Drwg

This will be my last HOF related post, I promise, well my last one until the voting is announced.

One of the great things about technology is that we have access to all sorts of information that we never have before – I need to look up the stats from the catchers from the 1914 Braves, I no longer have to drag out my copy for “The Baseball Encyclopedia” or “Total Baseball” (BTW – I still have both sitting on my bookshelf), I can just hop online and get all the information I need from baseball-reference.com.

We also now have writers willing to share who they are voting for before the Hall of Fame results are announced.

Two things I read today, one in the Seattle Times and one in the Chicago Tribune that are worth commenting on.

In the Times today, Larry Stone wrote about his ballot. I have to admit, I applaud most of his selections (his votes cast look very similar to mine) and the only one that I might have any real quibble with is Edgar Martinez, who, in reality wouldn’t be the worst selection for the HOF. He gets extra points from me for voting for Larry Walker. My one real problem is his argument against Rafael Palmeiro:

After much deliberation, I finally determined where I would draw my steroids line, at least on this ballot: I draw it with Palmeiro, who failed his test after MLB had finally come out of its hazy netherworld of tacit allowance of the steroids culture. By 2005, an anti-steroids policy had been codified in the Basic Agreement, and the penalties were spelled out. Every player knew the consequences. And still Palmeiro — after wagging his finger at Congress — tested positive for a steroid.

I am sorry, I don’t buy the argument. Palmeiro got caught cheating and he served the penalty prescribed by MLB. Let me ask you, if Palmeiro had been caught say doctoring his bat or scuffing a baseball, which would obviously give a competitive advantage to himself and his team, would you preclude him from the HOF?

Stone’s article was well written and thoughtful and really the Palmeiro exclusion was the only fault I could find. The ballots published today in the Chicago Tribune were another issue. Most of the voters flat out said they would not vote for anyone linked to steroids. Here are some of my favorite notes:

Pat Sullivan:

I also couldn’t find my way onto the growing Bert Blyleven bandwagon, though I suspect he will get in at last, and I ignored some very-good-but-not-good-enough players such as Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell and Juan Gonzalez, who made a cameo appearance in the Mitchell Report.

This was probably one of the weakest ballots in years, with no slam-dunks. The only four players who made my cut all had Chicago ties: Harold Baines, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Roberto Alomar.

Yes Pat, you ignored some very-good-but-not-good enough players, but you voted for Harold Baines, who had inferior numbers to Martinez, McGriff, Bagwell and Gonzalez and is significantly less deserving of election than Bert Blyleven. I understand casting the sentimental vote for a guy like Baines, but you can’t do that when you argue that someone like Bagwell shouldn’t make the hall. At least Raines gets a vote from Sullivan, although I suspect that it would not have happened if Raines had not played for the White Sox in his career.

Phil Rogers:

I’m not going to vote for Bagwell, but that’s because I feel his resume isn’t quite strong enough, not because of steroid suspicion. And if I’m not voting for Bagwell, I can’t keep voting for Harold Baines (most hits of any eligible player not in the Hall) after four years of support, so he’s off my ballot.

Ok, Phil, you feel Bagwell’s resume isn’t strong enough, but yet, you are voting for Larry Walker, who was never the dominant player Bagwell was during the same era, and you are voting for Jack Morris, who was never dominant, period. Another vote for Raines though, so I can sort of give you a pass.

Dave van Dyck:

So the question becomes: Who is deserving? This year’s ballot is especially tough because of the number of “borderliners.” And if you have to think long and hard about a yea or nay, the vote probably should be “no.”

So this year’s ballot included only three names.

Second baseman Alomar and closer Lee Smith helped define their positions in their era. And Jack Morris was a more dominant pitcher than Blyleven.

It was agonizing leaving off Blyleven and those for whom statistical arguments can be made such as Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Don Mattingly, Tim Raines and Larry Walker. Oh, and Alan Trammell, who should be more than an afterthought. But the Hall should be reserved for the very best of the best, not the best of the rest.

Lee Smith, who I love, was likely only the 3rd or 4th most dominant reliever of his era and probably gets the homer vote again. Morris more dominant than Blyleven, I would love to know the argument that backs that statement up. If the hall should be reserved for the very best of the best, how do you not make the argument that Bagwell and Raines don’t fit that bill?

Fred Mitchell:

I also voted for 12-time All-Star shortstop Barry Larkin (.295 with .975 fielding percentage) and big-game pitcher Jack Morris (254 victories) to move up the charts in the balloting. Morris was a member of three Series champions and had a 4-2 Series record.

I don’t understand how you can vote for Larkin and not Trammell, but that might be splitting hairs. Morris as a big game pitcher, HAH! He makes no mention of why he didn’t vote for Bagwell, Palmeiro or McGwire at all. He did at least vote for Blyleven.

Philip Hersh:

My ballot does include seven of the nine players I voted for a year ago (one was inductee Andre Dawson). I dropped Lee Smith and added Tim Raines (fifth all-time in stolen bases); Dave Parker (an exceptional all-around player); and first-year candidate Larry Walker (.313 career average, seven Gold Gloves).

Good for him for adding Raines and dropping Smith. I don’t understand Parker (maybe he is voting for Cobra because it is his last year on the ballot). He votes for both Larkin and Trammell but inexplicably votes for Mattingly and not for Bagwell. No reason is given for not voting for Bags, but I do think it is probably because of steroid suspicion.

Should be interesting to see the results on Wednesday.

By Blaidd Drwg

The announcement of the 2011 Hall of Fame class is less than a month away, and it should be interesting the see who, in addition to Blyleven and Alomar, get elected. I looked at the ballot and thought, “Who would I vote for?” I don’t care about any steroid allegations, failed tests, etc. If a player is accused of steroids but nothing in proven, then there is no credible reason to keep him out and if he did fail a test for a banned substance and served a suspension; that is no different than getting caught with a corked bat or scuffed baseball. You can’t pick and choose who you think was clean or dirty in the last 20 years. Voting for the HOF has become a more emotional event for me as the guys who I grew up watching regularly (and playing on my fantasy baseball teams) are now up for election.

If I had a vote, here is who I would cast my 10 ballots for:

Bert Blyleven – It took me a while to warm up to his candidacy, but see my previous post as to why I don’t think he is any worse a selection than Don Sutton or Phil Niekro.
Roberto Alomar – probably the best all-around 2B of the 1990’s and 2000’s. He could hit and field as well as any player. It is a joke that he did not get elected on last year’s ballot.
Alan Trammell – Overshadowed defensively by Ozzie Smith and offensively by Cal Ripken. He also had the misfortune of coming up on the ballot during the peak of the offensive explosion at SS, so his stats just didn’t compare to Jeter/ARod/Garciaparra/Tejada.
Barry Larkin – See also, Alan Trammell.
Tim Raines – Probably the best player in the game from 1981 – 1988 and one of the two greatest leadoff men in BB history. Probably hurt by playing his prime in Montreal and many people remembering the end of his career as a part time player.
Mark McGwire – Steroids or not, he was the Ralph Kiner of his era. He also wasn’t as one dimensional as people think.
Rafael Palmeiro – He was consistently good over a very long period of time with the bat and glove, and, while he did not deserve his Gold Glove in 1999 (playing only 28 games at 1B), he did deserve the ones he won in 1997 and 1998 (and probably should have won at least 2 more before that). Unfortunately, the failed drug test will probably keep him out of the Hall.

Jeff Bagwell – One of the 5 best 1B in baseball history (which is saying a lot) and will probably not be elected (at least not yet) based on steroid speculation. Injuries caused an early retirement, but he was probably the best hitter in the NL for most of the 1990’s and managed to put up an almost identical OPS (966) at the Astrodome (which was a terrible hitter’s park) as he did at Enron Field (995), which is a terrific hitter’s park. Rob Neyer has an interesting take here.
Fred McGriff – I am now realizing he was probably better than I thought originally. Not ever coming up as a potential steroid user probably will help him in the next few votes.
Kevin Brown – See my previous post, he does compare favorably with Don Drysdale. Hurt by pitching his prime in Texas, SD and Florida.

Two guys who I would love to vote for:
Larry Walker and Lee Smith – I doubt Walker will make it past this ballot, he was an amazing player whose injury issues and playing in Coors field mean he will never be elected. Lee Smith might someday get elected, but he was never as dominating as Gossage or Fingers and compiled a ton of cheap saves late in his career. If I voted for either of these guys, it would be completely sentimental.

Two guys who I won’t vote for:
Jack Morris – he just wasn’t that good and pitched with a lot of good teams. A better argument here.
Edgar Martinez – It has nothing to do with the DH argument. I firmly believe that he was probably the best DH in the AL from 1992 to 2001 and that is not easy to do. Had he not been hurt in 1993 and 1994, he might have a better case, but his late start in the majors probably cost him. If you are going to primarily be a hitter, you need to be top 5 in the league for a pretty extended period of time, and he really just wasn’t that. It probably hurts him that he wasn’t the best hitter on his team for that stretch either. I just haven’t heard a compelling argument on why he should be in the Hall.

The complete list of players eligible can be found here.

By Blaidd Drwg

In the below list of 9 players, can you tell me which ones are in the Baseball Hall of Fame? The list is from baseball-reference.com and is the 162 game average for each of their careers. I will give you a hint – there are 3 guys on this list that are currently in the Hall of Fame. Let’s look at the stats that the majority of the HOF voters would look at.

	W-L	ERA	IP	SO	ERA+	WHIP	K/BB
Player A	14-12	3.31	245	183	118	1.198	2.80
Player B	16-12	3.90	242	157	105	1.296	1.78
Player C	14-13	3.19	232	246	112	1.247	2.04
Player D	14-11	3.26	235	159	108	1.142	2.66
Player E	14-12	3.35	233	144	115	1.268	1.85
Player F	17-10	3.88	215	158	117	1.357	2.34
Player G	14-11	4.24	208	124	104	1.317	2.12
Player H	15-10	3.28	230	169	127	1.222	2.66
Player I	16-10	3.16	229	154	132	1.143	3.37

Did you spot the HOFers? If you guessed C, D, and E (and I am sure you didn’t) then you are right – those are the last 3 starting pitchers elected to the HOF – Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Phil Niekro. Not overly impressed? It gets better.

Players A and B are Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris – the two guys whose names come up most often as potential HOFers of the guys who are currently eligible. By this list, they both fit in pretty well with the Ryan/Sutton/Niekro group; heck, Blyleven looks like he might be the best of the bunch of that group. The only real difference between Blyleven/Morris and Ryan/Sutton/Niekro is the wins; neither Blyleven or Morris won 300 games, while the other 3 all did basically by pitching forever. I still think that the only reason Morris is in this discussion is for his pitching in game 7 of the 1991 World Series.

Players F and G are the active equivalents of Blyleven/Morris – Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer. Pettitte will probably ultimately make the HOF because he pitched for one of the best teams in the last 15 years (Yankees) and pitched 40+ postseason games (for which his career numbers line up almost exactly with his regular season stats). Jamie Moyer probably won’t make the Hall, and like Morris, has really no business in the HOF discussion other than he was a compiler.

It gets really interesting with Player H – that player is Kevin Brown. Just looking at the list, he is easily better than everyone listed ahead of him. I admit that he doesn’t have the career totals to make the Hall (only managed 211 wins), but was a much more dominating pitcher over his career than Blyleven/Morris/Ryan/Sutton/Niekro/Pettitte/Moyer and probably should have won the 1996 Cy Young Award (he lost to John Smoltz who won 24 games that season, despite an ERA that was a full run lower than Smoltz and an ERA+ of 217). He also pitched his prime in relative obscurity in Texas, Baltimore, Florida and SD before finishing as an overpaid and injured starter for the Dodgers and Yankees. If he pitches for a better team and averages just 2 wins a season over those seasons, he is probably in the Hall of Fame discussion. A fact that you probably didn’t know – Brown still managed to win 59.4% of his decisions over his career.

So who is Player I – I wanted to put in a guy who was easily a first ballot HOFer but not a fire-baller like Clemens and Johnson, just for comparison. Player I is easily be the best player on this list and probably the best pitcher in the NL in the 1990’s – Greg Maddux, who should breeze into Cooperstown with somewhere around 95% of the vote when he is finally eligible in a few years.

By Blaidd Drwg

Because it came up in something that I read, here is an interesting trivia question:

Who was the last starting pitcher* to be voted into the HOF?

*By starting pitcher, I mean a guy who was elected to the Hall on the merits of his pitching as a starter and spent the bulk of his career as a starter.

I will post the answer in the comments.

By Blaidd Drwg

Back in July, I made this post about Three True Outcomes. Well, now that the season is over, we can crown this year’s champion. The winner – Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not only did Reynolds win the award, he blew away the second place finisher, Adam Dunn, and Reynolds also won in spectacular fashion by striking out 211 times, having the second lowest batting average for guys who qualified for the batting title, going 5 for 64 in September for an .078 BA (and still managing to post a .231 OBP) and essentially getting benched for the last 8 games of the year.

Here is the 2010 leaderboard:

	TM	PA	HR	BB	SO	OPS+	TTO%
Mark Reynolds	ARI	582	32	83	211	98	.56014
Adam Dunn	WAS	635	38	77	199	138	.49449
Carlos Pena	TB	571	28	87	158	102	.47811
Colby Rasmus	STL	527	23	63	148	132	.44402
David Ortiz	BOS	600	32	82	145	137	.43167
Drew Stubbs	CIN	569	22	55	168	108	.43058
Justin Upton	ARI	559	17	64	152	111	.41682
BJ Upton	TB	603	18	67	164	105	.41293
Prince Fielder	MIL	692	32	114	138	137	.41040

With that incredibly ugly season by Reynolds, I believe the all-time leader board now looks like this:

	TM	PA	HR	BB	SO	OPS+	TTO%
Jack Cust	OAK	2311	102	400	732	122	.53397
Mark Reynolds	ARI	2285	121	260	767	108	.50241
Adam Dunn	TB	6065	354	990	1632	133	.49068

Cust is still #1 for his career (he had a .48941 TTO% in 2010, but only had 425 PA, so he didn’t qualify for the first list), but the lead is shrinking and Adam Dunn has now passed Rob Deer for #3 all-time.

Congratulations, I guess, to Mark Reynolds, who will probably be rewarded by the Diamondbacks not renewing his contract and letting him become a free agent.