By Blaidd Drwg

vin scully: “I don’t trust my memory.”

me: “I DO. PLEASE GO ON.”

That tweet is from Sean Ahmed, who was listening to a Dodgers broadcast a few days ago. I can only assume that Vin Scully was either trying to remember the last time something happened that was similar to what he was seeing in the game he was broadcasting or was telling a story and couldn’t remember the exact details. I have said it before, Scully is far and away the best announcer in baseball and I have to agree 100% with Ahmed’s statement – Mr. Scully, please continue what you were saying.

By Blaidd Drwg

I was reading an article on a high school pitcher, who could potentially be the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. The article pointed out that there has never been a high school right handed pitcher taken #1 overall – there have been left handed high schoolers and right handed college pitcher taken in that spot.

I went over to baseball-reference.com to look at the #1 overall picks through the 47 drafts and learned some interesting stuff:

• Only 2 high school pitchers have been taken #1 overall – David Clyde in 1973 an Brien Taylor in 1991. Clyde was rushed to the majors, hurt his arm and ended up with a career 18-33 record. Brien Taylor got into a bar fight in the minors, hurt his arm and never played in the majors.
• No second baseman has ever been taken #1 overall – the only position that has never been selected in that spot. Heck, of all the guys taken at #1, the leader in appearances at 2B is Jeff King who appeared at 2B in 121 of his 1201 career games.
• There have been more SS drafted #1 overall (8) than the other infield positions combined (7 – 4 at 3b at 3 at 1B)
• There have also been more catchers drafted #1 overall (5) than 1B or 3B.

Note: The catcher and shortstop thing make sense – the majority of guys drafted at those 2 positions were high school players, and those tend to be the positions where the best athletes play in high school.

• As of writing this post, there are no members of the Baseball Hall of Fame that were drafted #1 overall. There are only 3 players who were drafted #1 overall that look like sure-fire hall of famers, and two of them drafted by the same team – Ken Griffey Jr and Alex Rodriguez (Chipper Jones being the third).
• There are 6 players drafted #1 overall that have never played in a MLB game, 4 of whom are still active. Granted 3 of them were drafted in the last 4 years, but all but one of the six (Gerrit Cole) was drafted out of high school.
• The Mets and Padres have had the most #1 overall selections with 5. There are 8 teams that have never had the #1 overall selection – Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Indians and Reds. In case you were wondering, the Yankees have had the number #1 overall twice.
• Arizona State University has produced 3 top picks – Rick Monday in 1965, Floyd Bannister in 1976 and Bob Horner in 1978. No other college has ever produced more than 1 overall #1 pick.
• Danny Goodwin managed to get taken #1 overall twice – in 1971 by the White Sox out of high school (he didn’t sign and went to college instead) and in 1975 by the Angels out of college. Despite that distinction, he is tied for the worst career WAR for the top pick in the draft at -1.4 with Matt Anderson (for players who appeared in a MLB game).

By Blaidd Drwg

ESPN has a list of the 100 greatest Fenway Park moments to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the park. I have managed to only be at one of them #99, Springsteen plays Fenway. How disappointing is that? It isn’t even baseball related. It is memorable since it was one of the last times I went to Fenway before moving to Seattle.

The interesting one is #46 – Derek Lowe’s No-No. In 2002, I was still living in Boston and my company still had tickets that they actually let employees use, and that weekend, I was given the opportunity to go to the Saturday or Sunday game. I chose the Sunday game.

The Saturday game was a warm, Saturday afternoon affair between the Sox and Rays and it was the game that Derek Lowe started. I remember watching it and calling up one of my friends who was supposed to go with me the next day and getting a world of shit for my selection of games.

The real kicker though – the next day it was cold, windy and rainy, and the Sox and Rays did not even play the game. Oh, to have a do-over on that one!

By Blaidd Drwg

I really don’t have any love for Bud Selig and I have even less love for him when he starts spouting off about how teams need lavish publicly financed stadiums to replace their current facilities. Bud did just that the other day, saying the A’s and the Rays need a new place to call home. My favorite line from his comments:

“You can’t ask people to compete if they have a stadium that doesn’t produce any kind of revenue to give them a chance to compete. So that’s a given.”

OK – so the Rays, a team that you say needs a new stadium to be competitive, has made the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 seasons, in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. I don’t think a shiny new ballpark is the answer here; people are not going to go to Rays games either way. So does this mean that you are going to ask the Padres, Pirates, Twins – all of whom are generally in the bottom half of league payroll and all of whom have newer stadiums that were publicly funded, to finally spend some money and compete?

Another tidbit:

The last time I was there, I probably shouldn’t say this, but I’ll say it anyway, it reminded me of County Stadium and Shea Stadium, and that’s not a compliment, in either case.

Hell, the Dodgers draw close to 4 million a year in a not particularly charismatic vintage 1962 ballpark. A new ballpark gives you about a 2 year attendance boost. People will go to games to see a quality product on the field, not because of the bells and whistles at the park. Just ask the Mariners, who have what most people consider to be one of the 3 or 4 best stadiums in baseball, how well consistently losing in a nice stadium has worked out.

by A.J. Coltrane

Jered Weaver got his first career no-hitter on Wednesday; his wife and parents were in attendance at the game.  (image source here)

I think it’s safe to say that we’ve always rooted for Jered Weaver here at CSE, ever since we saw him in April 2006 pitching one of his last Triple A starts — he struck out 12 Tacoma Rainiers in only 6 innings. I found the box score:

RAINIERS 4, BEES 2

Completion of April 29 suspended game

E — Smith, C 2 (2). DP — Tacoma 1. LOB — Salt Lake 6; Tacoma 4. 2B — Murphy, T (5); Morales, K (2); Gorneault, N (3); Morse, M (3); Cabrera, A (4); Youngbauer (3). HBP — Napoli, M. SH — Murphy, T (1). SF — Morse, M (2). SB —Jones, A (3); Dobbs, G (4).

Nageotte faced 2 batters in the 2nd. Weaver faced 2 batters in the 8th.

W — Dorman, R (2-1). L — Rouwenhorst, (1-2). S — Fruto, E (2). HBP — by Fruto, E (Napoli, M). T — 2:42 A — N/A

(It’s actually harder than you might think to find a minor league box score from 6 years ago…) Remember the second game of the doubleheader, when Dallas McPherson lost that ball in the sun, then came back and smacked a home run to make up for it?

In a related sidenote, look at the 2006 Tacoma Rainiers roster. It’s no surprise that the M’s major league club is mediocre in 2012. The only two players of any real value were traded away (Shin-Soo Choo and Adam Jones). The rest of the squad were fringe major league talents. (I take that back, Mike Morse is having a solid, if unexceptional career. Did I miss anyone else?)

By Blaidd Drwg

Joe Maddon did something in a recent Rays-Tigers game that I doubt you will ever see again. Let me set the stage – It is the bottom of the 5th and the score is tied at 1 each. Matt Moore, the Rays uber-prospect pitcher is on the hill and he has been a bit shaky. He gets Gerald Laird to strike out and then Danny Worth to fly out, bringing up leadoff hitter Austin Jackson. Here is what happens next:

Austin Jackson – Strike (swinging), Ball, Ball, Ball, Ball, A Jackson walked
Brennan Boesch – Strike (looking), B Boesch singled to right center, A Jackson to third

Runners on the corner and 2 outs with Miguel Cabrera, arguably the most dangerous hitter in the league, up with Prince Fielder, who is no slouch with the bat, hitting behind him. Moore quickly falls behind 2-0, so what does Maddon do, he orders an intentional walk of course, loading the bases.

I wasn’t watching the game so I don’t know if Maddon saw something in the scouting report that made him think that Fielder is the better matchup (Fielder is a career .217 hitter with bases loaded and 2 outs) or if he just thought that a lefty-lefty matchup was the better choice. Either way, it is not often that you will see a 40 home run hitter intentionally walked to face a different 40 home run hitter.

Either way, it worked. Fielder popped out to end the inning.

By Blaidd Drwg

Brad Mills is apparently going to move starting pitcher Brett Myers into the closer role for 2012. To me, this move does not make a ton of sense. The Astros traded their closer from 2011, Mark Melancon, to the Red Sox in the offseason.  Melancon, while not great, is serviceable and cheap. Additionally, the 2011 offseason had a ton of closer/closer candidates available, and you could easily pick up someone for around 3 -5 million on a one year deal. Maybe the Astros didn’t have the budget for it. They probably have someone in their organization who can fill the role at league minimum if need be, but I guess management doesn’t think they are ready.

Enter in Brett Myers. He has racked up 440 innings over the last 2 seasons with an ERA just under 4, and is slated to make about 11 million next season, probably more than you want to pay him, but you are going to pay him that unless you can find someone to take that contract. I guess that Mills doesn’t think Myers will be better than the other 5 guys in their rotation. Here is who they are going to be starting, with their 2011 numbers. Keep in mind that Myers is the only Astros starter who did not miss a turn in the rotation last season and lead the team in innings for the last 2 season.

I can understand giving Weiland and Lyles a shot, they are both young and the Astros are not going anywhere in 2012, so why not. Norris and Rodriguez are both locked in at the top of the rotation, so it comes down to Happ vs Myers. Other than being 2 years younger than Myers, there isn’t much difference between the two; they have almost identical rate stats over their careers. Wouldn’t it make more sense to let Happ, Myers, Lyles and Weiland compete for the remaining 3 spots in the rotation and figure out your closer situation later? I can almost guarantee that either Lyles or Weiland will be pitching in AAA before the middle of May, if not sooner, which will then mean you will need a replacement starter. I would guess that starter would ultimately be Brett Myers.

By Blaidd Drwg

With a teary farewell, Jason Varitek finally hung up his gear and called it a career. You will get the few idiots in Boston saying he was a Hall of Fame player (not even close), the same way you had them in NY when Posada retired earlier this off season, but generally he did have a pretty good career …with the bat.

Varitek produced an oWAR of 23.7 according to baseball-reference.com. That is a pretty good number for a catcher. He had 3 pretty good seasons from 2003-2005, but generally he was league average or worse. The nice thing about the Red Sox lineup for the first decade of this century is that league average production out of your catcher made him look great in the runs and RBI departments. His post season numbers were pretty much in line with his regular season ones, so he was nothing special in that arena.

Varitek gets a great deal of credit for how he handled the pitching staff. There is no real evidence to suggest that a catcher has any impact on the performance of a pitcher, so I won’t say that he was or wasn’t a great handler of pitchers. Defensively though, he was atrocious at throwing out baserunners – at 23% for his career. In his last 2 seasons, baserunners were successful in 107 out of 128 attempts, or 84% of the time. The league average success rate is somewhere around 73%. That really doesn’t tell the whole story. Varitek was behind the plate for 850 inning in 2010-2011, or roughly 94 full games. Runners attempting over 1 steal per game against him is extremely high.

I don’t blame this all on Varitek; for years the Red Sox pitching coaches had an aversion to holding on runners, which lead to more steal attempts against the Sox then probably should have been attempted. Still, some of the blame falls on the catcher, and Varitek was really bad at throwing runners out.