The Greatest Play Ever?

By Blaidd Drwg

I was never a huge Buck Martinez fan, but I do remember those 1985 Blue Jays – they were a great team and it was really the start of the era in their team history which lead to a couple of World Series appearances. Jim Schoenfeld on espn.com called a play he made in 1985 against the Mariners the greatest play he has ever seen.

The video of it exists, it is pretty bad quality and the editing is terrible (for some reason they felt the need to intersperse shots of a guy in a green shirt with the replay), but you get to see Buck Martinez record 2 putouts, get a broken leg and a dislocated ankle, all on the same play.

For your viewing pleasure:

The Mariners and the Second Half of the Season

By Blaidd Drwg

Remember a couple of months ago when there was all the excitement about the Mariners having one of the best records in baseball since the all-star break? Well, I am here to tell you my friends that the record was completely built on smoke and mirrors. The Mariners managed to build their momentum against possibly the 4 worst teams in the AL – Toronto (who lost 4/5 ths of their pitching staff to injury along with their best hitter), KC (who has no pitching anyway), Cleveland (ditto) and Minnesota (the worst team in the AL, period). If you toss in the Red Sox, the only other team they played with a losing record, they have a stellar 23-4 record. The problem is you eventually have to face teams with a winning record – The Mariners managed to go just 16-33 against those teams, capped off by ending the season with 18 straight games against Baltimore, Texas, LAA and Oakland. The gritty details:

Team	July	August	Sep/Oct	W-L
Texas	1-2		3-3	4-5
KC	7-1			7-1
TB	2-1	2-1		4-2
NYY	1-2	1-2		2-4
Toronto	2-0	1-0	2-1	5-1
Baltimore		0-3	1-5	1-8
LAA		2-2	3-3	5-5
Minnesota		6-1		6-1
Cleveland		3-0		3-0
CWS		0-3		0-3
Boston			2-1	2-1
Oakland			0-6	0-6
Total	13-6	15-12	11-19

	July	August	Sep/Oct
Record Vs Winning	4-5	5-11	7-17
Record Vs Losing	9-1	10-1	4-2

While their record against losing teams in encouraging, this team is still way of from being a contending team. There are still a ton of holes in the lineup and questions surrounding the future of Felix Hernandez. The addition of the Astros to the AL West next season means the Mariners won’t be the worst team in the division, but if the A’s turn out to be for real, the M’s would be a longshot to make the playoffs as they would still only be the 4^th best team in the division.

It was Willie, Linus and the Chuck

By Blaidd Drwg

With apologize to the great Terry Chapman.

They called him “Stretch”, he is a hall of famer and he was only the second best Willie on his team. He also had the distinction of almost bringing a World Series title to the Bay Area in 1962. Fifty years later, the Giants are back in the series, so it seems like a good time to post this.

Wilie McCovey almost made a place for himself in baseball lore in the 9th inning of game 7 of the 1962 series. Here is what happened (from Wikipedia):

The only run of this classic game came in the fifth inning when Tony Kubek grounded into a double play, Bill Skowron scoring from third. Ralph Terry, pitching the seventh game instead of Jim Bouton because of the rain delays, had given up Bill Mazeroski’s Series-winning walk-off home run two years earlier in Pittsburgh, but in his third start stifled the Giants’ power hitters. In the bottom of the ninth, pinch-hitter Matty Alou, batting for reliever Billy O’Dell, led off the inning with a bunt hit after first having a foul ball dropped, but Terry struck out the next two batters, Felipe Alou and Hiller. Mays hit a double into the right-field corner, but Maris played the carom well, then hit cut-off man Richardson with a throw that was quickly relayed home. Alou, aware of Maris’ strong arm, stopped at third. Facing Willie McCovey with two outs, Terry elected to pitch to him rather than walk the bases loaded, which would have brought up slugger Orlando Cepeda. Terry’s inside fastball on the second pitch handcuffed McCovey, who nonetheless adjusted his bat in mid-swing to extend his arms and hit what he later claimed was the hardest ball he had ever struck. The line drive appeared at first to be going over the head of a well-positioned Richardson, but was in fact sinking from topspin and Richardson made the catch without leaping to end the game. Terry was named the World Series MVP.

McCovey had a chance have one of the most dramatic series ending hits in history, but instead, he will have to be immortalized in the only two Peanuts baseball strips that mention an actual baseball game:

There is also a great interview with McCovey here.

Predicting the MLB Award Winners – the NL Edition

By Blaidd Drwg

The National League Awards picture is much muddier than the AL – in the NL, every award has multiple legitimate candidates, so picking the winner is going to be much harder.

MVP – My Pick = Ryan Braun/ Predicted Winner = Buster Posey
There are 4 legitimate candidates – Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina and Andrew McCutchen. In terms of overall WAR, the NL Leaders went Posey (7.2), McCutchen (7.0), Braun (6.8), Molina (6.7), so not a ton of separation between them. It was actually the same order of finish in the NL batting race, with Posey taking the award thanks to Melky Cabrera DQing himself. Here is how the contenders ranked in some offensive categories:

	WAR	BA	HR	RBI	OPS	OPS+	RC
Posey	1	1		6	4	1	4
Braun	3	3	1	2	1	3	1
Molina	4	4				7
McCutchen	2	2	8		5	2	2

A blank in the chart means they were not in the top 10 in the category. Molina had a fine season offensively, was stellar defensively and gets credit for his team making the playoffs, but I don’t think that is enough compared to the other candidates, so he is out. McCutchen hit the hell out of the ball in the first half of the season to the tune of a 1.039 OPS, but followed that up with a fine, but not MVP like .860 in the second half as the Pirates fell apart again at the end of the season, so he is out as a contender. That leaves Posey and Braun. Posey lit it up in the second half with a 1.102 OPS, carried the Giants offensively, especially after Melky Cabrera was suspended and his team made the playoffs, all major plusses. Braun was just about as good in 2012 as he was in 2011 (when he won the MVP), survived the loss of Prince Fielder’s protection in the lineup (Braun had 2 IBB’s in 2011, 15 in 2012), and was remarkably consistent hitting .990 OPS in the first half and .983 in the second. The knock on him is his team failed to make the playoffs, but they were in the race until the last week of the season. I think that the consistency and higher finish in several statistical categories gets Braun my vote. He won’t win because some voters will hold the failed steroid test last season over his head.

Cy Young – My Pick = Clayton Kershaw/ Predicted Winner = Johnny Cueto
Another award with 4 legitimate candidates – Kershaw, Cueto, RA Dickey and Gio Gonzalez. Here is a breakdown of the 4:

	WAR	ERA	W	SO	ERA+	WHIP
Kershaw	1	1		2	2	1
Cueto	2	3	3		1
Dickey	3	2	2	1	3	3
Gonzalez	4	6	1	4	4	8

Gonzalez’s folio lies mostly in his 21 wins (leading the league) and the Gnats making the playoffs; the other 3 pitchers had better seasons than he did, so he is out. Dickey, it could be argued, statistically had the best season out of the group, but the Mets were terrible and that is going to cost him votes, so he is out. Kershaw had a better season statistically than Cueto, but there are 2 things working against him: his team did not make the playoffs and he only won 14 games. Yes there is precedent for picking the guy with the low win total, but not in a season where there was a 19, 20 and 21 game winner. That is what is going to prevent Kershaw from winning the award. Cueto is a fine pick; he had a stellar season, his team made the playoffs and he did it in one of the toughest parks in the NL to pitch in, so he does deserver the award should he win it.

ROY – My Pick = Bryce Harper / Predicted Winner = Bryce Harper
If you asked anyone for a prediction on who would win this award in June, they would have said Bryce Harper. Now, it is a three horse race with Harper, Wade Miley and Todd Frazier. Harper had a great season considering he is just 19 years old – .270 BA, 22 HR, 119 OPS+, 5.0 WAR, he made the AS team and his team made the playoffs. The knock on him is he faded at the end of the season. Miley went 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+ and 3.2 WAR, pitching in the tough confines of the BOB in Arizona and he also made an all-star team. His team did not make the playoffs though. Todd Frazier’s team, the Reds did make the playoffs and Frazier put up a .273 BA with 19 HR, 115 OPS+ but only a 1.9 WAR, hitting in the Great American bandbox. Given that, I don’t think that either Miley or Frazier, despite fine seasons, can match Harper’s output.

Predicting the MLB Award Winners – the AL Edition

By Blaidd Drwd

It has been a fun season and the beauty of baseball is that we have the MLB awards to look forward to after the World Series, so we get to hold onto baseball just a little longer. I have decided to have some fun and try to predict the award winners. You will see two names for each aware – my vote is the guy who I would vote for and predicted winner is who I think the actual voters will pick. So here we go with the AL; the NL will follow later.

MVP – My Vote = Miguel Cabrera/ Predicted Winner = Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has the Triple Crown and his team made the playoffs. He posted a 1.074 OPS in the second half of the season and was one of the main reasons for the Tigers run and eventual division title. He was the second best hitter in the AL according to offensive WAR but only 4th in overall WAR in the AL; and he didn’t even have the highest WAR on his team. Let’s face it; I think he is the last guy in baseball you want to face with the game on the line. I think the Triple Crown and the Tigers making the playoffs give him the vote.

The only other real contender in this race is Mike Trout. He lead all of baseball in both overall WAR (by 2.5 wins – that is a huge amount) and offensive WAR (by 1.1 wins), became the first rookie to score 100 runs, hit 30 HR and steal 40 bases and he did all of this missing the first month of the season when he was still in the minors. Oh, did I mention that he is only 20? I think the Angels not making the playoffs cost him the MVP – I really think he wins it if the Halos made the postseason.

ROY – My Vote = Mike Trout/ Predicted Winner = Mike Trout

The discussion begins and ends with Mike Trout. Trout had a WAR of 10.5, the next closest rookie? Yoenis Cespedes at 3.4.

He was really that much better than anyone else who was a rookie in 2012. Not only will Trout win, he will be a unanimous selection.

CY Young – My Vote = Justin Verlander/ Predicted Winner = David Price

This is one award that has a number of contenders with no one really a huge standout: David Price, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver. Price and Weaver both won 20 games and were tied with an .800 win percentage. Price led the league in ERA, Weaver in WHIP. Verlander on the other hand was the only contender whose team made the playoffs and Verlander lead the league in IP, K CG and WAR. I think that those numbers are enough for me to give Verlander his second consecutive Cy Young, but voters like Wins and ERA and Price has the advantage in both of those, so I think the voters give it to him in a very close result.

Mariners Shortstops, Through the Years

By Blaidd Drwg

At a Mariners game recently, I overheard a conversation about Alex Rodriguez and it got me thinking. Shortstop has been a black hole essentially since he left and I was wondering just how truly bad the Mariners shortstops over the last 11 seasons have been in light of Brendan Ryan’s sub 200 BA. The below chart, taken from the data on baseball-reference.com, contains the composite batting and fielding stats for all Mariners SS since 2000. The primary SS is the player who started the most games in a given season and DWAR is the fielding wins above replacement total (0 being replacement level, higher is better). I didn’t run the exact numbers, but the average season from the shortstop position for the Mariners since Arod’s departure is something like .254 BA, 6 HR and an OPS of .656. That is fine if you SS is batting in the Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers lineups, but not acceptable when you are in the Punch and Judy lineup the Mariners have trucked out there for the better part of the decade.

YEAR	Primary SS	BA	HR	OPS	OPS+	DWAR
2012	Brendan Ryan	.194	3	.555	61	3.6
2011	Brendan Ryan	.250	5	.659	90	2.5
2010	Josh Wilson	.230	5	.570	65	1.0
2009	Yuniesky Betancourt	.231	10	.597	65	-0.4
2008	Yuniesky Betancourt	.274	7	.680	89	-0.5
2007	Yuniesky Betancourt	.284	9	.713	92	0.3
2006	Yuniesky Betancourt	.286	8	.708	91	0.7
2005	Yuniesky Betancourt	.265	4	.684	91	0.4
2004	Rich Aurilia	.239	9	.630	73	0.5
2003	Carlos Guillen	.269	4	.680	91	0.5
2002	Carlos Guillen	.262	11	.719	100	0.2
2001	Carlos Guillen	.265	5	.698	94	1.7
2000	Alex Rodriguez	.318	42	1.011	172	2.3

Let’s put it this way – the last time the Mariners had a league average hitter at SS was when Carlos Guillen was still young and playing almost every day. The Mariners have a ton of holes in their lineup right now, so SS is probably the least of their concern. There may be some help in the farm system if Nick Franklin can stay healthy, although I am not sure he is going to stay at SS long term, and if Carlos Triunfel can regain some of the promise he had a the Mariners top prospect a couple of seasons ago (both Franklin and Triunfel are under the age of 23, so there is a chance they might improve). Until then, I would love to see the Mariners get someone into the SS position who might be able to hit, just a little.

And Six Months Later…

by A.J. Coltrane

The baseball regular season is over so it’s time to look at the really important outcomes: The results of my 2012 MLB futures bets!!

Jered Weaver Wins vs Cliff Lee Wins (Giving 1/2 win, picking Weaver)

This was an easy one. At CSE we’ve always had a higher opinion of Weaver than does the national media. The Angels also gained hitting talent over the winter in the form of Albert Pujols and young guys like MVP Candidate Mike Trout. The Phillies had problems with their position players coming into the season — Chase Utley didn’t wind up playing until June 27th, and Ryan Howard is becoming Late Career Mo Vaughan. In 2012 the Phillies only had one guy get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so Jimmy Rollins “led the team” in every statistical category.

The Results:

Lee opened the season 0-5. He didn’t win his first game until the 4th of July. His second win was on July 31, at which point he was 2-6. He finished the season at 6-9.

Weaver went 20-5. The outcome of this bet was never really in doubt.

Felix Hernandez Strikeouts vs Tim Lincecum Strikeouts (Pick: Hernandez)

Another easy one, though I didn’t do any actual research on it (or any of these bets really). *Everyone* knew that Tim Lincecum wasn’t “right” (or effective) at the end of the 2011 season. His fastball velocity was way off. His problems continued into spring training of 2012 (which is when these bets were placed — during the 2nd weekend of March Madness.) Further supporting evidence which I would have used if I had actually done research: Lincecum’s strikeout totals had declined each of the last three years starting at 265, then 261, 231, 220. Felix’s three year strikeout history was 217, 232, 222.

The Results:

Lincecum totalled 190 strikeouts in 2012. Quite honestly this is more than I thought he’d get. I thought he was basically cooked as an elite pitcher. His 5.18 ERA seems to validate this thinking.

Felix struck out 223 batters in 2012. It was an easy win for Felix.

I didn’t even look at this one over the course of the season. Lincecum started slowly, and Felix was Felix. It wound up closer than I thought it would, though Felix still had 17% more strikeouts than Lincecum.

Evan Longoria (Hits + HR + RBI) vs Adrian Beltre (Hits + HR + RBI) (Pick: Longoria)

This one was a non-starter because Longoria got hurt. And because Beltre nearly set a career high, hitting .321. That’s the main problem and the main attraction with these player’s futures bets: The outcomes are way more volatile. The M’s won 75 games this year, which is pretty much what the statheads and Vegas had them pegged at. Longoria played in 74 games. Beltre played in 156. Nobody was predicting that.

I picked Longoria because he’s at least 6-1/2 years younger than Beltre. Longoria is listed at 26. Beltre is listed at 33, and I’m of the feeling that Beltre is really at least a year or two older than that — I’m always suspicious of a non-US born player who’s productive at age 20, most guys mature a few years later. On a bet like this I’ll always take the guy who’s closer to his prime, younger players tend to be healthier and the probability of a “career year” is higher.

The Results:

Longoria (79 Hits + 17 HR + 55 RBI) = 151
Beltre (194 Hits + 36 HR + 102 RBI) = 332

But if we pro-rate Longoria to 156 games:
(164 Hits + 35 HR + 114 RBI) = 313

Still short.

Now I just have to find those two winning slips. I don’t think I’ve seen them since March.

It All Comes Down to This

By Blaidd Drwg

The playoffs are set, just a few teams jockeying for position.

Yankees and Orioles for the AL East – If the Yankees win, they win the division, so they control their own destiny. If they Orioles win and the Yankees lose, we get a tie breaker on Thursday. If the Orioles lose, the Yankees win the division.

Rangers and A’s for the AL West – man, this became a race all of a sudden. Both teams go into tonight’s game tied. The A’s are on fire, the Rangers are not. It should be a fun one to watch. The winner takes the division; the loser gets the wild card and has to fly cross country to play that game on Friday in NY or Baltimore if the Orioles win tonight.

The NL is set other than the Nats and Reds battling it out for the best record.

The most intriguing story line is Miguel Cabrera and his quest for the Triple Crown. Cabrera leads Mike Trout in BA by .007, Josh Hamilton in HR by 1 and Josh Hamilton in RBI by 11.

No one is going to catch Cabrera in RBI, so he has that one locked up.

For the HR’s, basically it is up to Hamilton. He needs 2 to take the lead and 1 to tie and is facing A’s rookie A.J Griffin. Hamilton has not homered in his last 8 games and has just 1 homer in 32 AB in Oakland this year. Cabrera should know if he has the HR title locked up before his game starts – the A’s/Rangers starts at 12:35 PM PT and the Tigers/Royals starts at 5:10 PM PT. I think I put my money on Cabrera winning this title outright as Hamilton won’t be swinging for the fences as the Rangers need to win this game.

BA is where it gets interesting. Trout faces the M’s and Blake Beavan this afternoon (3:40 PM PT start). Trout is a career 0-8 against Beavan and is just 12-41 at Safeco this season. If Trout manages to pull off a 4-4 afternoon, that would raise his average to .328571. Cabrera currently stands at .330645. Assuming that Trout goes 4-4, all Cabrera needs to do is to get 1 hit. It does not matter how many at bats he has. The only way that Cabrera does not win the title with a 4-4 day by Trout is if he goes 0-4 or worse. An 0-4 day would leave Cabrera at .328526 average, just a hair behind Trout. Cabrera should win this title too.

Regardless how you feel about the Triple Crown categories being over-rated, it is really cool to have something potentially happen that has not happened in 45 years.

UPDATE 3:54PM: Simply unbelievable – the A’s sweep the Rangers and take the division. The Nats get the NL best record and Cabrera locks up the HR and RBI titles. Mike Trout was hit by a pitch in his first at bat.

The Election Is Near!

by A.J. Coltrane

No, not that one. To quote SI’s Grant Wahl:

What are your thoughts on how the Sounders are handling the vote to retain or fire GM Adrian Hanauer?
— Matt Koppelman

I love it. The lowdown: On Oct. 7, Seattle season ticket holders will begin voting yay or nay in a vote of confidence on Hanauer. If he gets less than 50 percent support, Hanauer is out as GM. If he gets more than 50 percent, he stays. It’s the first vote of its kind in U.S. sports, and the idea came from the team’s part owner, the comedian Drew Carey.

“I was doing a show for the Travel Channel on the Barcelona-Real Madrid rivalry,” Carey told me last year. “In the Barcelona museum I talked to a guard, and he said there was an election coming up. Every four years they have an election for the president of the club. I said, ‘Are you kidding me? I’d like to see George Steinbrenner do that. I would love to bring that to the U.S.'”

When Carey first met Joe Roth, now Seattle’s principal owner, “All we did was talk soccer the whole lunch,” said Carey, who ended up signing on with him to invest in a new MLS team in Seattle. “I spent the whole time telling him about fans voting their president out. … The fans will do the dirty work for you. I always gave the Detroit Lions as an example: Matt Millen. He was there so long and made so many bad picks, but the Lions’ owners didn’t care. In my system with the Sounders, the fans could have fired Matt Millen.

“Joe bought into it, and we worked out the system. The vote is every four years. If the fans want to, they can get 20 percent of the members to sign a petition, and then they can have the vote any year they want.”

Granted, the stakes of the upcoming vote aren’t as high as they could be for Hanauer, who would remain as a part-owner of the Sounders even if he’s tossed out as the general manager. Then again, I expect Hanauer will receive a vote of confidence: Seattle has been a tremendous success story in terms of fan interest and on-field success, especially in winning three U.S. Open Cups from 2009-11. The next big hurdle is for the Sounders to win their first MLS playoff series.

As for the four-year term – it’s on the short end of reasonable for soccer, since highly drafted players should be close to performing with the “big club” soon after their acquisition. If franchises were to try something like this in baseball it would require a six or seven year term — it takes the cumulative effects of multiple drafts and trades over a period of years to determine if the GM is competent or not. (However, if M’s fans could have fired Bavasi after four years it would have avoided some of the worst of the damage to the player base. And it would have been blindingly obvious it was time for him to go.)

The real danger here, of course, is that most sports “fans” are by definition… maybe not clueless, but definitely “underinformed” and generally not the most rational bunch of folks, at least with respect to their favorite teams. I think this is especially true with sports where there are few quantifiable and publicly available statistics. Such as soccer.

This will be the first vote on the Sounders GM position, and letting the inmates run the asylum rarely works out well. With as successful as the Sounders have been, I hope that nothing interesting happens and that Hanauer easily wins re-election. We’ll see.

Swing and a Miss

By Blaidd Drwg

It was a good week for pitchers in the strikeout department:

On Wednesday, Doug Fister set an AL record when he recorded 9 consecutive strikeouts. He broke the record of 8, which had been done by several pitchers, most recently by Blake Stein (!) in 2001. He didn’t quite make it to the MLB record, which is 10, held by Tom Seaver.

On Tuesday, the Oakland A’s set an AL record for hitters strikeouts in a season with 7 games left on their schedule. The A’s batters swung past the Tampa Bay Rays 2007 total with their 1,325th K. They will end up obliterating the AL record. They still have a way to go to set the major league mark – that is 1,529 set by the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

On Monday, the Angles showed us just how bad the Mariners can be by tying a MLB record by striking out 20 Mariner hitters in a 9 inning game in a 5-4 victory. Zach Grienke struck out 13 in just 5 innings before giving way to a parade of reliever who fanned 7 over the final 4 innings of the game. With all of those strikeouts, the Angles did somehow manage to put Miguel Olivo down on strikes only once in his 4 plate appearances (even more shocking – Olivo had 3 hits in the game).