Category: MLB

R.A. Dickey and Long Term Contracts

By Blaidd Drwg

R.A. Dickey is the reigning Cy Young award winner in the NL. R.A. Dickey has had 2 great and 1 pretty good season in his career. R.A. Dickey is under contract with the Mets for 2013 (making $5 million). R.A. Dickey is looking for a long-term contract from the Mets (I have heard 4 years north of $50 million). R.A. Dickey is 38 years old.

I think Dickey’s success story has been an amazing one. He was a 1st round pick of the Rangers in 1996, was pitching with no ligaments in his elbow, didn’t make his MLB debut until 2001 at age 26, didn’t get another shot at the majors until 2003 at age 28, was generally pretty lousy for most of his career, developed a fast knuckleball, went to the Mets and then finally seemed to be able to get MLB hitters out at age 35, winning the Cy Young last season.

That being said, I really don’t think you want to sign a guy who has a very short track record and is at an age where most pitchers are not really effective. Maybe Dickey will surprise me and be effective well into his 40’s, but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it. The other red flag – he had a massive jump in his K rate. His last three seasons, the rate hovered around 5.5/9 IP. Last season, it was 8.9/9 IP. I just see this ending poorly by 2014 or 2015 for any team that signs him to the deal he wants or really anything longer than 2 years.

Post Script: I wrote this article about a week before R.A. Dickey was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on 12/17 for 2 high ceiling prospects and Dickey received 2 year, $25 million contract extension, which seems a little high on the dollar side (appearantly to account for the higher tax rate in Canada) but about right on the years.

2013 Hall of Fame Ballot

By Blaidd Drwg

This year the Hall of Fame ballot gets crowded and interesting. Steroids argument aside, you have two guys who statistically are among the 10 best players in the history of the game and 4 guys who have a strong case that they should be in the Hall, and those are just the guys who are on the ballot for the first time this year.

If I had a vote, my ballot would have the 10 name maximum on it this year and probably for the next 4 or 5 years. Here is how it would look (keep in mind the steroid questions are a non-issue for me):

The New Guys
Barry Bonds – No brainer, only some guys named Babe Ruth and Cy Young have higher career WAR’s than Bonds
Roger Clemens – Easily the most dominating pitcher of the last 40 years, which is saying a lot.
Craig Biggio – He was overshadowed by the gaudy power numbers of his era, but this is a guy who hit, took walks, stole bases and won 4 Gold Gloves as a second baseman. Heck, he even switched to the outfield when the team asked him to. Basically he was the 1990’s version of Robin Yount.
Mike Piazza – Arguably the best hitting catcher in MLB history. Not bad for a guy who was drafted in the 62nd round of the draft as a favor by Tommy LaSorda to Piazza’s father.
Curt Schilling – Forget the bloody sock in 2004. Schilling was among the best in baseball for the better part of a decade, should have won at least one Cy Young award and is probably the best post season pitcher in the 2000’s and maybe the last 50 years.

The Returning Guys
Jeff Bagwell – He needs to be in. The guy could hit and run and field and, unfortunately, got lost in the shuffle by playing his entire career in Houston.
Alan Trammell – Larkin is in, Trammell was better.
Rafael Palmiero – Do I need to say anything more than 500 HR and 3000 hits?
Tim Raines – I think last year was “The Rock’s” last, best chance. The ballot is too crowded and I don’t think he has enough support.
Mark McGwire – The guy was a masher but he was the modern version of Ralph Kiner.

Sadly, I think that Jack Morris will get in this season, despite being less than qualified and not even being better than another guy who should not be anywhere close to getting elected – David Wells. Don’t believe me, look it up. Wells and Morris had very similar regular season numbers and Wells was a better post season pitcher than Morris.

My prediction for election – Morris is the only guy who gets in because the writers are idiots and won’t vote for anyone they suspect might have been involved with steroids, even without proof.

The Strike Zone, Morales, And Vick

by A.J. Coltrane

1.  First off, here’s a look at the size of a MLB strike zone, by count. (Hint:  It’s not even remotely the same, depending upon the situation.) Includes very cool visuals.

2.  The M’s trade a pitcher (Jason Vargas) for a hitter (Kendrys Morales). It’s basically just defense for offense. Both players have one year left before free agency. Morales is represented by Scott Boras, so I’d assume Morales is basically a rental. Actually, I kind of hope that he is. Morales is Cuban, so who knows how old he is, really? Plus, it’s Scott Boras we’re talking about dealing with here. Pass.

USSM has two posts with excellent analysis of the trade and the aftermath.

3.  Finally, because I couldn’t leave it alone:  The Jets are reported to be seeking to trade Mark Sanchez and they have an interest in Michael Vick.

Good Lord. Really?!

Repeat after me:  “If Michael Vick is the answer, you’re asking the wrong question.”

The M’s Top Prospects

by A.J. Coltrane

The M’s top 15 prospects over at Fangraphs. The top six are the ones that might matter sometime this year.

I wouldn’t say the Seattle Mariners organization is the deepest system in the majors but it has some of the best upper-tier talent among the 30 baseball clubs. What’s even more impressive with the organization is that so many of those top prospects are pitchers and up-the-middle position players. Also, unlike a lot of the top systems in the game, the bulk of Seattle’s talent is at the double-A and triple-A level suggesting better days are ahead for the Mariners and their fans.

Nice to see that the M’s are almost recovered from the Bill Bavasi regime — four years later.

Now it’s time to start winning.

1969 Seattle Pilots Photos

By Blaidd Drwg

This is really cool – the Seattle PI/MOHAI uncovered some photo negatives from the Seattle Pilots 1969 spring training and some game images.  Below is my favorite photo of the bunch. It amazes me how something like this can just disappear into an archive and get discovered some 43 years later.  You can see all of the photos here.

Photo: MOHAI/Seattle Post-Intelligencer Collection / SL

R.A. Dickey Interview

by A.J. Coltrane

Tim Kurkjian does an interesting interview with Orel Hershiser and R.A. Dickey about the development of R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball. Hint:  Charlie Hough has a big role.

In a related note, I had it in my head that Charlie Hough was active something like 1955-1975. His career actually ran 1970-1994(!) From wikipedia:  “He was converted into a starting pitcher in Texas, where he pitched from 1980–1990, making his only All-Star team in 1986. He left Texas as the franchise leader in wins, strikeouts, complete games and losses.”

Hough is still only 64 years old. I expected he’d be closer to 80. I’ll blame in on Bill James, who sort of talked about him as though Hough was older than Methusela, even in 1985.

Ichiro and His 2012 Batting Average

By Blaidd Drwg

Ichiro saluting Coltrane on his nearly accurate 2012 BA prediction.

Back before the season started at a get together we had, there was a discussion on Ichiro. Without much thought, a number of us placed a prediction on what we thought his batting average would be at the end of the season. We put nothing on the bet and I hadn’t really thought about posting this until I found the paper the other day that we put our predictions on. So here is what we originally guessed:

Coltrane – .282
Annie S. – .292
Blaidd Drwg – .293
Mrs. Iron Chef Leftovers – .275
PW – .352

Thanks to a great last couple of months at the end of the season when he got traded to the Yankees, Ichiro managed to post a .283 average for the season, making Coltrane the winner of absolutely nothing other than recognition in this blog (like that is worth anything).

The Unbareable Lightness of Being

By Blaidd Drwg

…Chone Figgins. One of the worst free agenst signings in Mariners history. He basically became completely useless (although you can argue he was already there) on Tuesday when this came across the wire:

Looking to add depth to the infield, the Seattle Mariners have acquired versatile Robert Andino from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for reserve outfielder Trayvon Robinson.

Robert Andino is basically Chone Figgins with slightly more power and slightly less ability to get on base, oh, and Andino makes about 1/3 of what Figgins does. That move prompted this one on Wednesday:

Designated OF Scott Cousins and INF Chone Figgins for assignment.

Before you get too excited about effectively swapping Andino for Figgins, keep this in mind – Andino somehow managed to play in 127 games last season for Baltimore and managed an incredible .588 OPS, which is only slightly better than what Figgins posted last year.

It actually makes me wonder how the Orioles were that successful with putting Andino out there as much as they did. Hopefully Wedge does not fall in love with him and feels the need to use him even semi-regularly.

Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

By Blaidd Drwg

Way back in January, after a spending binge, I wrote a scathing article and my prediction for the future of the Florida Miami Marlins. As a refresher, here is what I wrote:

My prediction is the circus in South Florida yields a .500 team this season and they are breaking the team up by June of next year.

I think I was harsher than most people on the future of the Marlins; most people predicted them to be a contender for the playoffs. Now that the season is over, I find myself thinking I was overly optimistic – the Marlins managed a stellar 69-93 record, traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez and ultimately fired Ozzie Guillen. They then kicked-off the hot stove league by dealing Heath Bell to Arizona. I wasn’t as far off as I could have been.

I also wrote this nugget of wisdom:

It gets really ugly in 2014 for the Marlins. On top of the salaries above, their 2 best pitchers, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, are both free agents in 2014, Hanley Ramirez is scheduled to make 16 million and their stud first baseman, Mike Stanton, is eligible for arbitration. Just counting Reyes, Buehrle, Bell and Ramirez, the team is on the hook for 59 million in payroll. Heck, for 2013, the Marlins are projected to be somewhere between 125 and 145 million for payroll, which I don’t think is going to happen. I think we are going to see a repeat of a disturbing trend that has been there since the beginning in South Florida – owner bumps up the payroll to a long term unsustainable level to make a World Series run, sells off the players returning the team to mediocrity and then sell the team.

Flash forward to Wednesday and you have this come across the wire:

The Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a multiple-player trade that would send shortstop Jose Reyes and pitcher Josh Johnson to Toronto, sources told ESPN. Also going to Toronto would be pitcher Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and infielder-outfielder Emilio Bonifacio.

So, the Marlins have just basically reduced their payroll from about 125 million in 2013 to about 35 million. Sure as hell sounds like history repeating itself. The Marlins are receiving a bunch of prospects (most of whom are at least 2-3 years from having a shot at making the big club), noted bigot SS Yunel Escobar and spare part catcher in Jeff Mathis back from the Jays, and, as far as I can tell, the Jays are assuming all of the salaries they are acquiring. You think Albert Pujols is glad he didn’t sign with the Marlins now?

Lost in all of this is Giancarlo Stanton, the lone remaining Marlins player with any real talent. He is a little put out by this move:

“Alright, I’m pissed off!!! Plain & Simple,” Stanton tweeted.

I have a feeling that Stanton will not be sticking around beyond 2013 since he is then arbitration eligible and will be in line for a big payday.

My favorite quote to come out of this was from douchebag Marlins GM Larry Beinfest:

“We’ve kind of lost our Marlins way,” president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said less than two weeks ago. “The real Marlins way was we always outperformed our challenges. Whatever our challenges were, whether it was playing in a football stadium or weather or a lack of fans, or lack of revenue for that matter, we always found a way to outperform our challenges.”

What he really means is: “The Marlins way is to be as cheap as possible and not actually care about the team or the city, despite the good folks of Miami giving us a shiny 400 million dollar ballpark on their dime.”

Actually, this isn’t so much the Marlins way as the Beinfest/Loria way. In case you are unaware, Jeff Loria was the owner of the Montreal Expos who basically ran the team into the ground so that he could get a huge payout from MLB, oh and a shiny new team in Miami.