Category: Mariners

It All Comes Down to This

By Blaidd Drwg

The playoffs are set, just a few teams jockeying for position.

Yankees and Orioles for the AL East – If the Yankees win, they win the division, so they control their own destiny. If they Orioles win and the Yankees lose, we get a tie breaker on Thursday. If the Orioles lose, the Yankees win the division.

Rangers and A’s for the AL West – man, this became a race all of a sudden. Both teams go into tonight’s game tied. The A’s are on fire, the Rangers are not. It should be a fun one to watch. The winner takes the division; the loser gets the wild card and has to fly cross country to play that game on Friday in NY or Baltimore if the Orioles win tonight.

The NL is set other than the Nats and Reds battling it out for the best record.

The most intriguing story line is Miguel Cabrera and his quest for the Triple Crown. Cabrera leads Mike Trout in BA by .007, Josh Hamilton in HR by 1 and Josh Hamilton in RBI by 11.

No one is going to catch Cabrera in RBI, so he has that one locked up.

For the HR’s, basically it is up to Hamilton. He needs 2 to take the lead and 1 to tie and is facing A’s rookie A.J Griffin. Hamilton has not homered in his last 8 games and has just 1 homer in 32 AB in Oakland this year. Cabrera should know if he has the HR title locked up before his game starts – the A’s/Rangers starts at 12:35 PM PT and the Tigers/Royals starts at 5:10 PM PT. I think I put my money on Cabrera winning this title outright as Hamilton won’t be swinging for the fences as the Rangers need to win this game.

BA is where it gets interesting. Trout faces the M’s and Blake Beavan this afternoon (3:40 PM PT start). Trout is a career 0-8 against Beavan and is just 12-41 at Safeco this season. If Trout manages to pull off a 4-4 afternoon, that would raise his average to .328571. Cabrera currently stands at .330645. Assuming that Trout goes 4-4, all Cabrera needs to do is to get 1 hit. It does not matter how many at bats he has. The only way that Cabrera does not win the title with a 4-4 day by Trout is if he goes 0-4 or worse. An 0-4 day would leave Cabrera at .328526 average, just a hair behind Trout. Cabrera should win this title too.

Regardless how you feel about the Triple Crown categories being over-rated, it is really cool to have something potentially happen that has not happened in 45 years.

 

UPDATE 3:54PM: Simply unbelievable – the A’s sweep the Rangers and take the division. The Nats get the NL best record and Cabrera locks up the HR and RBI titles. Mike Trout was hit by a pitch in his first at bat.

The Election Is Near!

by A.J. Coltrane

No, not that one. To quote SI’s Grant Wahl:

What are your thoughts on how the Sounders are handling the vote to retain or fire GM Adrian Hanauer?
— Matt Koppelman

I love it. The lowdown: On Oct. 7, Seattle season ticket holders will begin voting yay or nay in a vote of confidence on Hanauer. If he gets less than 50 percent support, Hanauer is out as GM. If he gets more than 50 percent, he stays. It’s the first vote of its kind in U.S. sports, and the idea came from the team’s part owner, the comedian Drew Carey.

“I was doing a show for the Travel Channel on the Barcelona-Real Madrid rivalry,” Carey told me last year. “In the Barcelona museum I talked to a guard, and he said there was an election coming up. Every four years they have an election for the president of the club. I said, ‘Are you kidding me? I’d like to see George Steinbrenner do that. I would love to bring that to the U.S.'”

When Carey first met Joe Roth, now Seattle’s principal owner, “All we did was talk soccer the whole lunch,” said Carey, who ended up signing on with him to invest in a new MLS team in Seattle. “I spent the whole time telling him about fans voting their president out. … The fans will do the dirty work for you. I always gave the Detroit Lions as an example: Matt Millen. He was there so long and made so many bad picks, but the Lions’ owners didn’t care. In my system with the Sounders, the fans could have fired Matt Millen.

“Joe bought into it, and we worked out the system. The vote is every four years. If the fans want to, they can get 20 percent of the members to sign a petition, and then they can have the vote any year they want.”

Granted, the stakes of the upcoming vote aren’t as high as they could be for Hanauer, who would remain as a part-owner of the Sounders even if he’s tossed out as the general manager. Then again, I expect Hanauer will receive a vote of confidence: Seattle has been a tremendous success story in terms of fan interest and on-field success, especially in winning three U.S. Open Cups from 2009-11. The next big hurdle is for the Sounders to win their first MLS playoff series.

As for the four-year term – it’s on the short end of reasonable for soccer, since highly drafted players should be close to performing with the “big club” soon after their acquisition. If franchises were to try something like this in baseball it would require a six or seven year term — it takes the cumulative effects of multiple drafts and trades over a period of years to determine if the GM is competent or not. (However, if M’s fans could have fired Bavasi after four years it would have avoided some of the worst of the damage to the player base. And it would have been blindingly obvious it was time for him to go.)

The real danger here, of course, is that most sports “fans” are by definition… maybe not clueless, but definitely “underinformed” and generally not the most rational bunch of folks, at least with respect to their favorite teams. I think this is especially true with sports where there are few quantifiable and publicly available statistics. Such as soccer.

This will be the first vote on the Sounders GM position, and letting the inmates run the asylum rarely works out well. With as successful as the Sounders have been, I hope that nothing interesting happens and that Hanauer easily wins re-election. We’ll see.

Swing and a Miss

By Blaidd Drwg

It was a good week for pitchers in the strikeout department:

On Wednesday, Doug Fister set an AL record when he recorded 9 consecutive strikeouts. He broke the record of 8, which had been done by several pitchers, most recently by Blake Stein (!) in 2001. He didn’t quite make it to the MLB record, which is 10, held by Tom Seaver.

On Tuesday, the Oakland A’s set an AL record for hitters strikeouts in a season with 7 games left on their schedule. The A’s batters swung past the Tampa Bay Rays 2007 total with their 1,325th K. They will end up obliterating the AL record. They still have a way to go to set the major league mark – that is 1,529 set by the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

On Monday, the Angles showed us just how bad the Mariners can be by tying a MLB record by striking out 20 Mariner hitters in a 9 inning game in a 5-4 victory. Zach Grienke struck out 13 in just 5 innings before giving way to a parade of reliever who fanned 7 over the final 4 innings of the game. With all of those strikeouts, the Angles did somehow manage to put Miguel Olivo down on strikes only once in his 4 plate appearances (even more shocking – Olivo had 3 hits in the game).

And Down the Stretch They Come…

By Blaidd Drwg

The NL has 4 of its 5 playoff spots finalized, with only the 2nd wild card still remaining. Even then, the Cardinals have a 3 game lead over the Dodgers with 6 games remaining, making it unlikely that the Dodgers will catch the Redbirds.

The AL is a different story – no one has actually clinched a playoff spot and it could be an interesting last week of the season. Going into Friday’s games, the Yankees lead the east by 1, the Tigers lead the central by 2 and the Rangers lead the west by 4. The wild card also has races, with the Orioles 1 game ahead of the A’s for the first spot and the A’s 2 games ahead of the Angels and Rays for the 2nd spot.

Here is how this is going to play out:
East:
Yankees have 6 games left – 3 at Toronto and 3 vs. Boston. They are in the best position to win the division since they play the two worst teams in the division and neither Boston nor Toronto is playing particularly well right now. As much as I know the Red Sox would like to spoil the Yankees playoff chances, I don’t think it will happen. I see the Yankees taking 5 of the 6 to win the division.

Orioles have 6 games left – 3 vs. Boston and 3 at Tampa.
Rays have 6 games left – 3 at Chicago and 3 vs. Baltimore.
The final TB-Baltimore series could really put a monkey wrench in the playoff chances for one of the two teams. Both the O’s and the Rays are hot and they both need to sweep their weekend series. It is entirely possible that both of these teams could make it to the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do.

Central:
Last week, the White Sox had a 3 game lead in the division. This week, they are trailing the Tigers by 2.
The White Sox need to take at least 2 out of three from the Rays (they really need a sweep) and then sweep the Indians in their last series. Why? Well the Tigers benefit from the most favorable remaining schedule of all the contenders – the have 3 at KC and finish with 3 vs. Minnesota. That is going to make it very tough on the Sox.

West:
The Rangers are in the driver’s seat, but by no means have it locked. They play 3 vs. the Angels and 3 at Oakland. Basically if they take 2 out of 3 from the Halos, the Rangers win the division and the Angels go home for the season.

The A’s are playing the Mariners for 3 and then finish with the Rangers. They really need to sweep the M’s and hope that either the Rangers fell apart against the Angels or have won the division and decided to monkey with their rotation to get it set for the playoffs. The A’s are a longshot to win the division but are in a pretty good spot for a wild card, even with their all-rookie rotation.

The Angels just basically need to win out against the Rangers and the Mariners. It could mean that there is meaningful baseball played in Safeco field in October, just not for the Mariners.

My Prediction:
East Winner: Yankees
Central Winner: Tigers
West Winner: Rangers
Wild Card 1: Orioles
Wild Card 2: A’s

Depending on everyone’s final record and how the wild card standings finish, you could actually end up with this nightmare scenario:

Oakland wins the 2nd wild card and flies to Baltimore, arriving sometime in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday

Oakland at Baltimore for the wild card game on Friday if Baltimore ends up with the best wild card record.

New York at Baltimore for the ALDS on Sunday if NY ends up with the best record.

MLB has decided in its infinite wisdom that the team with the best record gets to play the wild card winner (great), but the series format is 2 games at the WC winner and 3 at the Division Winner. So, the Yankees might not know that the need to get on a flight to Oakland until late Friday night. As much as I hate the Yankees, I don’t understand how that makes any sense. It probably negates any advantage they gain from playing the wild card winner. Of course, this gets much more interesting if there is a tie anywhere and we need a playoff to determine the winner.

The Curious Case of Aaron Cook

By Bliadd Drwg

Earlier in September, the Red Sox came limping into Seattle, for a pillow fight series against the Mariners. Things have been so bad for the Red Sox this season; they actually had a worse record than the Mariners on September 3rd, the first game of the season. Normally the Red Sox are a big draw – historically pulling 30,000+ for a weekday series. This year, not so much. The beautiful Labor Day afternoon game drew a whopping 21,000 and the Tuesday and Wednesday games drew 12,700 and 13,000 respectively (although it seemed like there were less people at the Wednesday game).

That Wednesday game, the Red Sox brought out starter Aaron Cook, sporting a stellar 5.35 ERA before that start. What made it more interesting for me were his strikeout and walk stats – entering the game, Cook had struck out 11, walked 12 and given up 10 home runs…in 70.2 innings. That translates into less than 2 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. That, my friends, is a truly pathetic total. Cook has always been an extreme ground ball pitcher, which probably explains his success when he pitched for Colorado, despite striking out only 3.7 batters per nine. To put that into perspective, my favorite soft tosser, Jamie Moyer averaged 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings over his career.  It is hard to survive as a MLB pitcher with a number as low as Cook has posted, but he has somehow managed to do it.

I bring this up for a couple of reasons. First, I wondered if there had been any pitcher who made it through 100 innings and gave up more home runs than strikeouts. I haven’t bothered to look that up yet, so that is for another post. Second, those extremely low numbers set up one of the more bizarre pitching outings I have seen from a truly statistical standpoint.

Coming into the Mariners game, Cook had made 13 starts. Here is the aggregate on the number of strikeouts and walks he has registered per game:

 

# of Strikeouts Times # of Walks Times
0 7 0 5
1 3 1 6
2 2 3 2
4 1

 

So Cook managed to strike out 2 or less in 12 out of his first 13 starts. Enter the Seattle game. He gets on a roll early, striking out Trayvon Robinson in the first, meaning his K total exceeds half his previous starts, one inning into the game. In the second, he gets Eric Thames looking, and I am waiting for the plague of locusts to descend on the stadium; two strike outs in two innings? Someone obviously took Aaron Cook’s place on the mound.

The third inning is where it gets really strange. Dustin Ackley leads off and strikes out swinging. At this point I am ready to head for cover as it was due to start raining blood any minute. Trayvon Robinson again strikes out and I am fully expecting the second coming at this point. What are the chances that Aaron Cook, who has struck out 11 batters all season, will actually strike out the side? Pretty good actually. After a couple of walks (more on those in a minute), Jesus Montero struck out swinging to end the inning. The 5K’s in the first 3 innings would be all Cook would get – he would pitch 3 more innings without recording another strikeout.

What’s so interesting about the walks? Well, it means that a guy who has batters put the ball in play 91% of the time, managed to face 5 batters, record 3 outs and not a single one of them managed to put a ball in play.

You never know what you are going to have happen when you come to the ballpark on any given day.

Ichiro and His Trade to the Yankees

By Blaidd Drwg

At the time the Mariners traded Ichiro to the Yankees, I will be honest, I had absolutely no idea why the Yankees would have wanted him. They were pretty set in the outfield and really didn’t need a DH, so the trade seemed odd, especially since Ichiro has struggled over the last 2 season, particularly against left handed pitching. Something that did not get widely reported by the media in Seattle was this little detail of the deal from ESPN.com:

Before completing a trade to acquire the Japanese star, the Yankees spelled out a list of conditions to Ichiro, a former American League MVP and two-time batting champion.

Ichiro would be asked to switch positions, hit at the bottom of the lineup and possibly sit against left-handed pitching.

Ichiro knows his career is coming to an end and he is probably desperate to win a World Series title and the Yankees are his best hope for doing that this season. I found it very interesting that the Yankees scouting has noticed exactly what I have about Ichiro this season:

He can no longer play above average defense in right field.
He isn’t a top of the lineup hitter considering his sub .300 OBP.
He is cheating on fastballs against left handers and can’t hit them effectively anymore.
He has slowed down (there has been a huge drop in the number of infield hits he has had over the last 2 seasons).

The move to the Yankees has not really helped either – Ichrio had slash totals of 261/288/353 with the Mariners and 265/296/368 with the Yankees, translating to an OPS= of 82 with the Mariners and 77 with the Yankees. His time with the Yankees has been bizarre: he hit in 16 out of his first 17 games with them, but managed to only produce 2 multi-hit games. The Yankees have generally batted him in the bottom third of the lineup and have sat him the last 2 games against a lefty starting pitcher.

I have never been a huge Ichiro fan, but he was a fun and frustrating player to watch and I would love to see him win a championship. I suspect that if he does this season, he will call it quits and in 5 years become the first Japanese inductee into Cooperstown. If he does not, I bet he takes a part time role with a contender to try again next season. I think that even Ichiro has realized that he has reached the end of the line. He is currently 449 hits away from 3000 and I just don’t think he has enough left in the tank to get there.

The Mariners, Run Differential, And Lookout Landing

by A.J. Coltrane

I’ve been going to Lookout Landing for the majority of my Mariners news. Today I was rewarded with this Jeff Sullivan post:  Mariner’s Rub Shoulders With League’s Elite In Land Of Positive Run Differential

The Seattle Mariners had been looking in through the window since June 5. On June 5, the Mariners lost in Anaheim by five runs, and they were escorted by security out of the ballroom, through the front door, and into the yard. They were escorted no further, but they heard the door lock behind them, just as they heard the clinking of glasses and the din of laughter from within. The Mariners had mingled with the best of the best, but suddenly they were no longer welcome. They could only stare longingly at all of the fun teams having fun, having fun without them, having fun without missing them.

In time the Mariners stopped feeling sorry for themselves and set about earning re-entry. They didn’t know if re-entry was possible, or if it was even allowed, but there was only one way to find out, and they eventually found out. On the night of July 31, the Mariners heard the door unlock. The door swung open, and there was security, ushering the Mariners in. As they looked at each other and approached, they were handed silver necklaces bearing “+1” medallions. The Mariners put them on, and proceeded cautiously and then confidently back into the ballroom.

There, in a corner, pouring punch, were the Cardinals. +99. On the dance floor were the +74 Nationals and the +37 Red Sox. The +77 Yankees hung back, nodding their heads to the music. The +7 Tigers and +6 Giants stood meekly against the wall. The +40 Diamondbacks approached and welcomed the Mariners to the party, unaware that they had been in before. “We’re all the same in here,” they said. “We’re all haves. There are haves, and there are have-nots.” They gestured to a distant window. A group of necklace-less Cubs outside scattered and hid in the bushes.

The Mariners lit up. “Really, the same? We’re all just peers, one no better or worse than the next?”

The Diamondbacks eyed the Mariners’ necklaces and laughed. “No, of course not, we were pulling your leg, haha.” They didn’t stop laughing for several minutes. “Haha, haha.” At last, they composed themselves. “We shouldn’t even be talking to you, honestly. But you’re in the way of the drinks.”

The Mariners stepped aside to give the Diamondbacks room. “But, hey, you know, +1? That’s not bad. That’s not bad. Congrats on not being super shitty.” With that the Diamondbacks advanced to the open bar, and the Mariners tried to catch the Giants’ eyes, while the Giants tried not to let them.

The point is that the M’s haven’t totally sucked this year. (There’s a strong correlation between a teams run scored/runs allowed ratio and their winning percentage. Or to put it another way, if a team scores as many runs as they allow it follows that they don’t *suck*.) Sullivan says it in what I think is a really entertaining fashion. The blog also features excellent graphics and game wrapups. Click on the Blogroll at the right for more good stuff from Lookout Landing.

The Mariners and Royals

By Blaidd Drwg

Before you get too excited about the Mariners taking 3 out of 4 against the Royals and putting up 31 runs in the process, the Royals probably have the worst starting rotation in the majors. Let’s take a look at the guys who the Mariners faced in the 4 game series:

Game 1: Jonathan Sanchez (current ERA – 7.76) Pitching line – 1.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER
Sanchez, once a rising star in the Giants organization, fell completely off a cliff this season, walking 44 guys in 53 innings and sporting a stellar 2.04 WHIP. Things got so bad with Sanchez that the Royals designated him for assignment after this disastrous start against the Mariners (Yet somehow the Rockies had enough interest in him to trade a somewhat useful player for him on Friday).

Game 2: Ryan Verdugo (current ERA – 32.40) Pitching line – 1.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER
Verdugo was making his MLB Debut in this game. He was the “other guy” the Royals got with Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera. Verdugo is 25 and had not pitched particularly well in the minors in his career and never above AAA before this season; was his debut line much of a surprise?

Game 3: Bruce Chen (current ERA – 5.57) Pitching line – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER
The “ACE” of the Royals staff. He pitched somewhat decently; I will put heavy emphasis on somewhat, because frankly, that is not a good pitching line. But heck, it can’t be that bad, the Royals actually won that game

Game 4: Will Smith (current ERA – 7.97) Pitching line – 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER
Smith wasn’t terrible, but he was going against Felix, so he wasn’t winning that game no matter how well he pitched. At least in Smith’s defense, he is only 22 and seems to have some upside potential. Then again, he does pitch for the Royals, so maybe not.

Speaking of Felix, he dispatched the Royals, needing just 89 pitches over 8 innings before giving way to Lucas Luetge in the 9th. Felix is in the zone right now – he is dominant and he is being economical with his pitches. He has given up only 2 ER in his last 24.2 innings. It might have something to do with the 21 strikeouts and his amazing Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio – 36 GB to 23 FB. I am not sure what adjustment he made, but he is back to getting guys out on the ground. Over his career his ration has been 1.24 to 1 GB to FB, this year is has been .9 to 1 GB to FB. Welcome back, Felix.

Welcome Back, Carlos Peguero

By Blaidd Drwg

The Mariners are starting to play musical chairs with their roster. The inconsistent Hector Noesi has bought himself a Sounder ticket to Tacoma and is being replaced in the rotation by Hisashi Iwakuma. I don’t particularly like Iwakuma, but with the All Star break looming, you don’t need to worry about your #5 starter for a couple of weeks.

Carlos Peguero is being recalled to replace Noesi. While I thought they needed to call up another OF when Guti went on the DL, they called up a pitcher, then Saunders came down with the flu, meaning we got to see Chone Figgins start for 5 games. Peguero has all of the makings of a 4A player – he has been killing the ball in the minors (this season to the tune of 18 HR is 49 games with a 1002 OPS) but he has huge holes in his swing and doesn’t have any plate discipline. This year he has 18 unintentional walks in 212 plate appearances, which would be pretty average in the majors (about 50 walks in 600 PA) but considering that number would deflate about 25% in the majors, you are talking about a guy who would probably draw about 35 walks over the course of the season. Look, strikeouts are not inherently bad – Adam Dun has struck out in nearly 50% of his AB this season and is batting 220, but he also is second in the AL in HR and has an OBP of 370, which is pretty darn good.

Peguero looked lost in his callup to the Mariners last season and I don’t see any reason to think he will have all of a sudden figured out how to hit MLB pitching in the meantime.

While you hope that his callup would inject some pop into the Mariners lineup, where exactly is he going to play? Peguero is a LF/DH type and a left handed bat. The Mariners roster seems to be riddled with those right now. Here are a few ways I see this playing out, in the order I see as most likely (I also make the assumption that Guti is on the DL for longer than expected – until at least after the AS break):

  • Peguero is mostly used as a PH and gets the occasional start and is back in Tacoma by July 20th.
  • Peguero takes most of the AB that are going to Montero at DH and Montero finds himself in Tacoma (this is what Geoff Baker thinks will happen) or on the DL.
  • Peguero is in a platoon with Casper Wells in left. I would assume that you would want Wells, one of 2 guys who have an OBP above 325 on the roster, in the lineup regularly, so he becomes your full time DH.

I also wonder if sending Montero down will mean that we could be seeing Danny Hultzen making his MLB debut sometime this month.