Category: Gambling

I Don’t Know Why You Say Goodbye…

By Blaidd Drwg

 

…I say hello. Why do I have the feeling I have used that one before? Anyway, just a couple of tidbits from the transaction wire on opening day.

Heeee's baaaaaack!
Heeee’s baaaaaack!

Vlad Guerrero signs a one day contract with the Angels and retires.

Vladdy probably would be a HOFer if he had not spent most of his prime years playing in Montreal. He will forever be remembered by me for 3 specific things:

1)      In 2002 in the last game of the season in Montreal, wrapping a double in the 5th inning of the game to tie the Expos single season hit record with 206 and getting a tremendous ovation for it. For years, that score card hung on my wall.

2)      In 2003 in the last game of the season in Montreal (see a pattern here), getting pulled from the game in the 7th inning after taking the field for warm-ups. It was known that Vladdy was going to be signing somewhere else in the off-season (the Expos weren’t going to attempt to keep him) as a free agent and he was loved the way that Dawson, Raines and Carter were in that city. He trotted off the field to a 5 minute standing ovation and 2 curtain calls. I have never seen anything like that before or since and that is how a departing player who is that loved should be sent off.

3)      In 2004, after signing with the Angels, was a 10-1 shot for AL MVP. Vlad had been murdering the ball in the NL for the last 4 seasons and I liked the odds. I put down a c-note on that line. Needless to say, he paid for my 2005 trip to Vegas.

Of course, in what seems like it should have been an April Fool’s joke, Vlad signed his contract on the field before last night’s Angels game and was honored with throwing out the first pitch to the only other player in Angels history to win an MVP – Don Baylor. Baylor received the pitch and then proceeded to break his leg trying to catch the pitch. Seriously.

The Diamondbacks announced the retirement of C Henry Blanco and added him to their coaching staff .

Henry Blanco is 42 and has hit about .150 over the last 2 seasons and probably should have started his coaching career years ago. I will be honest, I had absolutely no idea he was still even playing until this article a couple of days ago.

Grady Sizemore makes the Red Sox opening day roster.

Not only that, but he is their starting CF! It is a great comeback story for a guy who has missed most of the last few seasons with injuries, but I can’t help thinking that he is going to break down about a week after he has to play a few cold weather games. My guess, he is on the DL before April 15th.

The hyphen is back!

Ryan Rowland–Smith made the Dbacks roster. You remember him – failed M’s pitching prospect from Down Under who imploded in 2010 and then dropped off the planet. Well, he is finally back in the bigs after 4 seasons in the minors. Hopefully he sticks around, I always did like him.

And Six Months Later…

by A.J. Coltrane

The baseball regular season is over so it’s time to look at the really important outcomes:  The results of my 2012 MLB futures bets!!

 

Jered Weaver Wins vs Cliff Lee Wins (Giving 1/2 win, picking Weaver)

This was an easy one. At CSE we’ve always had a higher opinion of Weaver than does the national media. The Angels also gained hitting talent over the winter in the form of Albert Pujols and young guys like MVP Candidate Mike Trout. The Phillies had problems with their position players coming into the season — Chase Utley didn’t wind up playing until June 27th, and Ryan Howard is becoming Late Career Mo Vaughan. In 2012 the Phillies only had one guy get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so Jimmy Rollins “led the team” in every statistical category.

The Results:

Lee opened the season 0-5. He didn’t win his first game until the 4th of July. His second win was on July 31, at which point he was 2-6. He finished the season at 6-9.

Weaver went 20-5. The outcome of this bet was never really in doubt.

 

Felix Hernandez Strikeouts vs Tim Lincecum Strikeouts (Pick: Hernandez)

Another easy one, though I didn’t do any actual research on it (or any of these bets really). *Everyone* knew that Tim Lincecum wasn’t “right” (or effective) at the end of the 2011 season. His fastball velocity was way off. His problems continued into spring training of 2012 (which is when these bets were placed — during the 2nd weekend of March Madness.) Further supporting evidence which I would have used if I had actually done research: Lincecum’s strikeout totals had declined each of the last three years starting at 265, then 261, 231, 220. Felix’s three year strikeout history was 217, 232, 222.

The Results:

Lincecum totalled 190 strikeouts in 2012. Quite honestly this is more than I thought he’d get. I thought he was basically cooked as an elite pitcher. His 5.18 ERA seems to validate this thinking.

Felix struck out 223 batters in 2012. It was an easy win for Felix.

I didn’t even look at this one over the course of the season. Lincecum started slowly, and Felix was Felix. It wound up closer than I thought it would, though Felix still had 17% more strikeouts than Lincecum.

 

 

Evan Longoria (Hits + HR + RBI) vs Adrian Beltre (Hits + HR + RBI) (Pick: Longoria)

This one was a non-starter because Longoria got hurt. And because Beltre nearly set a career high, hitting .321. That’s the main problem and the main attraction with these player’s futures bets: The outcomes are way more volatile. The M’s won 75 games this year, which is pretty much what the statheads and Vegas had them pegged at. Longoria played in 74 games. Beltre played in 156. Nobody was predicting that.

I picked Longoria because he’s at least 6-1/2 years younger than Beltre. Longoria is listed at 26. Beltre is listed at 33, and I’m of the feeling that Beltre is really at least a year or two older than that — I’m always suspicious of a non-US born player who’s productive at age 20, most guys mature a few years later. On a bet like this I’ll always take the guy who’s closer to his prime, younger players tend to be healthier and the probability of a “career year” is higher.

The Results:

Longoria (79 Hits + 17 HR + 55 RBI) = 151
Beltre (194 Hits + 36 HR + 102 RBI) = 332

But if we pro-rate Longoria to 156 games:
(164 Hits + 35 HR + 114 RBI) = 313

Still short.

Now I just have to find those two winning slips. I don’t think I’ve seen them since March.

Vegas And Some New Recipe Categories

by A.J. Coltrane

I’ve added three new subcategories as children to the “Recipes” tag:  Breads, Pizza & Flatbreads, and Asst Doughs. Most of the existing “dough” recipes fit reasonably cleanly into one of those subcategories. (The Grissini recipe wound up categorized as “Breads”, which I guess is ok.)

The Vegas gambling went fairly well last week, I won over 62% of my college basketball bets. The most interesting “miss” was a fun three-team parlay, combining Wisconsin to beat Syracuse (+150), Florida to beat Marquette (+110), and Louisville to beat Michigan State (+190). I bet $20 to win $324. Wisconsin lost by 1, which killed the parlay. The other two teams won. On the bright side, most of the games from the weekend seemed to follow the “script”, so that’s reassuring for next year. (Exceptions:  Baylor down 20 at the half against Kentucky. That, and Florida shooting 8-11 from 3 point range in the first half, then going 0-9 in the second half to lose to Louisville. I was feeling good about my Florida bets at halftime…)

Three fun MLB prop bets that we put a little money on before leaving town:

More Combined Hits, Homers, and RBIs:  Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre. (Pick em). Beltre officially turns 33 on April 7. Longoria is 26. I’ll take the 7+ year age difference, thank you.

More Wins:  Jered Weaver over Cliff Lee. (Giving 1/2 win).

More Strikeouts:  Felix Hernandez over Tim Lincecum. (And Lincecum’s inconsistent velocity over the last couple of years.)