Predictably, expectations for the Seahawks’ season are headed south (Grantland):
FALLING
Seattle Seahawks
OPENING LINE: 7 wins, Over EVEN, Under -120
NOW: 6.5 wins, Over +145, Under -165
Even at 6.5 wins, the Seahawks’ odds keep falling. On Monday, that over was at +130. Now it sits at +145. Although they beat the Chargers in the preseason opener on Thursday, it wasn’t pretty; Tarvaris Jackson looked awful at quarterback, key left tackle Russell Okung sprained his ankle, and the Seahawks left some of their first-team players in for the entire first half, a sign of how far they have to go in installing their offense under new coordinator Darrell Bevell. Would you want to bet on the combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst winning seven or more games this season? It’s become increasingly difficult to find anyone who would say yes to that question.
The Grantland piece links this piece, which talks about the “The Magic of 55 Percent Winners” — how often gamblers have to win to succeed at gambling on sports. Very instructional if you’re at all interested in how the process works.
While we’re here, through two preseason games:
Charlie Whitehurst – 28 of 39, 71.8%, 212 yards. 1 TD, 0 INT, 93.1 rating.
Tavaris Jackson – 14 of 26, 53.8%, 88 yards. 0 TD, 1 INT, 45.0 rating.
A few weeks ago I was lamenting over a San Giorgio Spaghetti commercial that I couldn’t find, well I finally found it (in the video below at minute 1). It isn’t complete, but you will get the idea. I think they had a budget of about $10 for the commercial and picked up random people off the street to appear in it – the production values are just not there.
I got interrupted when I was watching it so I didn’t hit stop when it was over, and it lead me to encounter a commercial which I forgot about – the NY Giants singing a commercial for Pepsi Lite. I don’t know which is more disturbing – the Giants singing and dancing (terribly) in towels or that there was something called Pepsi Lite in the 1980’s. (The commercial starts at 1:32).
There are some other 1980’s, New York regional commercials in this block too, so enjoy.
Multiple sources are reporting that the Seahawks are parting ways with Matt Hasselbeck. They chose to go with two new guys, signing Tavaris Jackson and Matt Leinhart.
Ugh.
I’m of the opinion that Hasselbeck is cooked, so I’m not broken up about him leaving — I don’t think the Seahawks were going to win more than 9 games with him anyway. Tavaris Jackson, however, is… terrrrrible. Worse than terrible. I thought he stunk with the Vikings — bad technique, bad decision making, just tons of stuff that made me glad he wasn’t my quarterback… I’m not sure I could stand watching him as the quarterback of the Seahawks on the weekly basis.
I’m hoping we won’t have to.
I seem to be in the minority in that I think Whitehurst may still prove that he can play. There’s also the possibility that Leinhart may “get his act together” and show that he’s the guy.
A mini factiod from a piece authored by Bill Barnwell on Bill Simmons’ new website, Grantland. The piece is about the “dangers” of signing different types of NFL free agents. The excerpt below highlights the potential drawbacks in signing free agent veteran running backs:
…that’s two impact backs in the past seven free-agent classes. Running backs simply don’t last long enough — running backs who put up a 1,000-yard season since 1983 have only been able to repeat that performance an average of 1.5 times over the remainder of their careers.
Emphasis mine.
I’m of the suspicion that the probability of a running back following his first 1,000 yard campaign with a 2nd 1,000 yard season is something like 30%.
ESPN has published a list of the 200 best-paying teams. The top 10:
Rank
Team
Average Annual Salary Per Player
1
Barcelona
$7,910,737.00
2
Real Madrid
$7,356,632.00
3
New York Yankees
$6,756,301.00
4
Los Angeles Lakers
$6,540,690.00
5
Orlando Magic
$6,367,114.00
6
Chelsea
$6,020,741.00
7
Inter Milan
$5,999,643.00
8
Boston Red Sox
$5,991,203.00
9
Denver Nuggets
$5,990,174.00
10
Manchester City
$5,863,585.00
The M’s are #71 at $2.88m per player, the Seahawks are #80 at $2.80m per player — The top NFL team is the Redskins at #70, $2.91m per player.
In fact:
Soccer
Baseball
Basketball
Football
Rank
5
2
3
0
Top 10
10
6
9
0
Top 25
16
11
23
0
Top 50
Most of the NBA is clustered between $4.5 and $3.8 million per player per team, which happens to fall in the #26-#50 range.
Here’s an odd one: The top paying NHL team, the Detroit Red Wings, pay better than the best paying NFL team, the Washington Redskins. I hadn’t expected the NHL to pay that well. That’s also a byproduct of the NFL’s 20 game schedule and a 53-man rosters.
I’ve used All About The Benjamins elsewhere, so here’s Weird Al’s “All About The Pentiums.”
The Tennesse Titans traded up to draft Jake Locker with the 8th pick in the 2011 NFL draft. Locker was the second quarterback selected, much to the surprise of about everybody. To some degree this is Tennesse pushing the “reset button” on the Vince Young pick. Locker and Young both had mid-4.5 second speed in the 40 yard dash and are all-around great athletes. Young possesses the bigger body, the bigger arm, loopy mechanics, and a loopy head.
This should be a great fit for both Locker and the Titans. Mike Munchak is the Titans new coach. Munchak is a former offensive linemen. If the Titans maintain their run-oriented philosophy it will take some of the pressure off of the quarterback position — Jake will be able to sit and learn behind Kerry Collins, taking over either late this year or early next year.
————-
James Carpenter
The Seahawks drafted Offensive Guard/Tackle James Carpenter of Alabama in round one. (The link is to a Seattle Times piece by Jerry Brewer. Brewer is *very* skeptical of the pick.) I think the pick is solid — Carpenter played Left Tackle at Alabama and was the #2 rated Guard in the draft, and the #6 Tackle — if Carpenter doesn’t work out at Tackle he can be moved inside to Guard and team up with Russell Okung on the left side. This would echo the Walter Jones/Steve Hutchinson line of the Super Bowl Seahawks.
Here’s the CBS.sports draft profile for the 6’4″, 325 lb, Carpenter:
All-SEC for both of his years starting at left tackle, Carpenter was a pivotal part of the offensive success the Tide had during the past two seasons. He might lack the quickness the NFL looks for on the blind side, but likely is athletic enough for right tackle and also projects well inside at guard. A steady, durable and reliable performer, don’t be surprised if Carpenter ends up as a quality starter somewhere in the NFL. Positives: Impressive athlete. Excellent technique, decent knee bend and good hand placement. Can sink hips and generate power. Slides feet and extends arms well in pass protection. Has power in hands and can move defenders. Can run and hit second-level targets. Good ability to anchor, seal, trap and pull. Well-schooled in an NFL-style offense. Tough and durable, never missing a start.
Negatives: Lacks the elite foot quickness needed for the NFL left tackle position. Somewhat stiff in hips and hence doesn’t change directions well. Frame is good except legs are a bit long. Vulnerable to double moves, especially inside. Pass protection set is somewhat high. Can be late off snap, mostly with a lot of crowd noise. Dives too much.
Mel Kiper has projected the Seahawks will take head-case QB Ryan Mallet in the 2nd round. My suspicion is that Mallet may be the second coming of Ryan Leaf or Jeff George. If the draft plays out that way I’m not going to be too excited. I still think Charlie Whitehurst needs more of an opportunity to show he can play, or not play.
————
The Browns traded out of the number six pick, effectively passing on Alabama WR Julio Jones. I like Jones a lot, I think he may prove to be the best WR in the draft. I think Colt McCoy was probably a little bummed about that development. Instead the Browns took massive Defensive Tackle Phil Taylor. Taylor supposedly has some issues with his work rate. The Browns need the help on the defensive line, but I’m still not enamored with the pick.
Late edit, Wow! Look what Cleveland got for trading out of the #6 slot! It’s two #1’s, one #2, and two #4’s:
To make the move, the Browns acquired Atlanta’s No. 27 overall pick and second- and fourth-round picks this year, in addition to Atlanta’s first- and fourth-round picks in 2012.
I saw on ESPN that a Cleveland Browns fan is suing the team and the NFL for breach of contract for his personal seat license.
The heart of the lawsuit is this:
Lanci claimed that the lockout denies him the right under the personal seat licenses to go to Browns games and has destroyed the value of the seat-license agreement.
Hey guys. Does Cleveland still rock?
A couple of questions:
1) With the level of futility that the Browns have displayed since their return to the NFL, do they have anyone willing to admit they are still, in fact, a Browns fan?
2) Wouldn’t the value of the seat-license agreement have been further destroyed if the team actually PLAYED another full NFL season?
I know a Browns season ticket holder and they are a die-hard fan. I think they would agree the team being awful has hurt the value of the seats more then the lockout ever would. People in Cleveland wouldn’t go to games toward the end of last year because the team was so bad, would they even notice a lockout?
EA Sports, in conjunction with ESPN is letting the fans pick the cover of Madden ’12. Each team has one player listed and the voting is taking place in a bracket format. There are some guys on there who you would expect and some really questionable selections. I have no idea what criteria they used to pick the players, but here are the selection that make me scratch my head:
Pats: Danny Woodhead. Seriously? On a team with Wes Welker and Tom Brady, you pick the RB who had 4 good games in his career and will probably disappear quicker than he appeared? Heck, Bill Belichek would have been a better selection than Woodhead.
This guy might grace the cover of Madden '12. Seriously.
Broncos: Tim Tebow. Yes, he has the pedigree but he started 3 games, completed 50% of his passes and looks like he will have a better NFL career as a RB than a QB (hint to Jack Locker). Granted, the only other guy I could name on the Broncos is Brandon Lloyd, but still, Tebow? Don’t see it.
Panthers: Jordan Gross. Raise your hand if you have any idea who Jordan Gross is. I had to look him up – he is a right tackle. You know you are in trouble when you are resorting to an offensive lineman as your Madden cover choice. The Panthers are bad, but why not Charles Johnson, Steve Smith, or the sentimental favorite, 41 year old kicker John Kasay.
I say, we start an online campaign to get Jordan Gross on the cover, you know, just because.
Dolphins: Jake Long. Another O-Lineman? Really? Why? Could it get any worse than this? YES:
Seahawks: The 12th Man. WTF? They couldn’t even pick a player? I know that the Seahawks don’t exactly have household names on the roster, but how unimaginative is this? You might as well put me on the cover at that point.
Given the Madden Curse, I think this is going to turn into a screw your rival process where a good number of fans are going to vote for the guy on their rivals team or vote against their own favorite player. Besides, if by some miracle the 12th man ended up on the cover of Madden, does that mean that every Seahawks fan would end up injured in some bizarre way causing them to miss the rest of the season?
Remember a few months back when the president of THE Ohio State University was less than complementary about the non-AQ schools and was raving bout how good the Big 10 is. Well, let’s see how they did in their bowl games:
Wisconsin
19
TCU
21
Loss
Iowa
27
Missouri
24
Win
Illinois
38
Baylor
14
Win
Michigan St
7
Alabama
49
Loss
Penn St
24
Florida
37
Loss
Michigan
14
Mississippi St
52
Loss
Ohio St.
31
Arkansas
26
Win
Hey, Ohio State, remember us?
The Big 10 managed to put 7 teams into bowl games this season, which isn’t as impressive as you would think as you just need to win 6 games to qualify and the Big 10 teams generally play 4 non-conference games, mostly against pretty weak opponents. In the 7 Bowl Games, the Big 10 is a less than stellar 3-4. Only one of those 3 wins was particularly convincing, with a 7-6 Illinois team beating a 7-6 Baylor team, although I will give Iowa credit for managing to beat a pretty good Missouri team. The 4 losses are the problem – Michigan, Penn St and Michigan State all got completely blown out in their bowl games, with the Spartans, co-Big 10 champs, being completely overmatched and run out of the building by an obviously superior Alabama team. Wisconsin ended up losing an epic game to TCU, one of the non-AQ schools that E. Gordon Gee believed should have not been playing in a game like the Rose Bowl. It wasn’t like Wisconsin came in not wanting to be at the game – it was looking like early on the game was going to be a shootout, only to have both teams make adjustments and play what I think might have been the best bowl game of this post season. It really makes me realize just how badly TCU got screwed in the poles and should probably be playing for a National Championship.
I would still love to see Ohio State step up and play Boise St or TCU on the road next season, just to prove that the big boys shouldn’t have anything handed to them on a silver platter. Instead, Ohio State’s only non-conference games that might be a challenge are going to be at Nebraska , and maybe, only because of the suspended players and coach, at Miami. Otherwise, I don’t think Toledo, Akron and Colorado will be too much of a bother for them.
It was a good long first weekend in Vegas of March Madness gambling. I made over 50 (straight) bets on college basketball and won about 65% of them — I had money on all but about two games between Thursday and Sunday. (For the record, betting on every single game is *not* the recommended way to be successful in Vegas.)
The highlight of the weekend was the San Diego State – Temple double overtime game. The Aztecs were 6 point favorites, and the score was close as the game wound down. So close that everyone who had picked San Diego State — and that was everyone in the bar — were loudly rooting for overtime at the end of regulation. And at the end of the first overtime. San Diego State finally pulled away in the second overtime to win by a whopping 7 points! The bar erupted, and there were high-fives with complete strangers all around!
The lowlight was BYU failing to cover as 8.5 point favorites against the Wofford Terriers. Here are the last fifty seconds:
Time
Wofford
Score
BYU
:50
63-73
Jimmer Fredette missed Free Throw.
:50
63-74
Jimmer Fredette made Free Throw.
:41
Cameron Rundles missed Jumper.
63-74
:40
63-74
Noah Hartsock Defensive Rebound.
:14
63-74
Jimmer Fredette missed Three Point Jumper.
:08
Wofford Defensive Rebound.
63-74
:02
Terry Martin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Cameron Rundles.
66-74
That was a killer! Fredette missed a free throw with BYU up 10, then threw up a terrible brick of a 3-point attempt with 14 seconds to go. Wofford capitalized on this “opening” by making a meaningless 3-pointer with 2 seconds to go, reducing the deficit from 11 to 8, and bringing a collective groan from the crowd. (Nobody had picked Wofford, either.) It was kinda funny actually — most times there’s at least some grumbling and swearing when bets are lost. But to lose the bet like that — what are you going to do? Stupid Jimmer Fredette.
What happens to all of those losing tickets?
The Ashtray Of Shame! For proper effect, say it like a super hero would say it.
FlatbreadGarden 