The Stupidity of the NFL Playoff System

By Drwg Blaidd

The NFL really needs to change the way that the playoffs are seeded. We have had 2 consecutive seasons where a team that was .500 or worse got to host a team that was at least 4 wins better than them in the opening round of the playoffs.

I think that the NFL needs to go to an NBA style playoff system – you give the division winners with the 2 best records the 1 & 2 seeds (and the bye) and then you rank the remaining teams based on records. It pisses me off that my team, who was tied with the second best record in the conference, has to play on the road the entire playoffs (unless the unlikely scenario of Steelers – Bengals occurs for the AFC championship game – which is moot), just because they happened to be in the same division as a team they tied with, who also held the tie breaker over them. The Steelers probably would have ended up 14-2 if they played in the West and the point would be moot. If you want to keep the division structure, fine. It happens too often that a team won’t make the playoffs as a wild card while a team with a worse record wins their division and gets in.

The list just over the last 5 seasons:

2011 – The Broncos (8-8) make it while the Titans (9-7) do not.
2010 – The 7-9 Sea Chicks make it over the 10-6 Giants and the 10-6 Bucs.
2008 – The 8-8 Chargers make it over the 11-5 Patriots and the 9-7 Jets.

That 2008 Pats team is the only 11 win team that did not make the playoffs that I could find in the 2 wild card era.

My other problem with the playoff seeding is that in the NFL, since it is a single game, home field means a ton more (it is something like a 65-35 advantage in the playoffs) than the other sports where the multi-game series reduces it to something like 55-45 advantage.

The one thing that I am holding out hope for is the Broncos really aren’t that good and they really haven’t been great at home this year. That being said, the Steelers have a banged up O-line, banged up QB, lost their starting RB, have some injuries on defense and are without their starting safety, who can’t play because the altitude might literally kill him.

While we are at it, could someone please let the MLS know that their playoff system really doesn’t work either…

Note: this was written BEFORE the weekend playoff games were played.

Is Brees/Brady the new Elway/Marino Debate?

By Blaidd Drwg

Raise your hand if you would ever thought that the first quarterback to break Dan Marino’s single season yards record would be Drew Brees and not Tom Brady (Brady is about 200 yards from passing Marino also). Brady gets all the press because of the “pass always” offense the Pats run, but it is the high-octane offense in New Orleans that should probably be getting more attention. Heck, you hear about Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski all the time – name any receiver on the Saints (I had to look them up).

The Saints are now 12-3, have scored 505 points (9 less than the Packers and 40 more than the Patriots) and unlike the Pats, have the best pass offense in the league and the 9th best run offense (the Pats are 19th). That is not really the point of this post.

The point of this post is that, to me at least, it seems like Brees/Brady could be the new Marino/Elway argument on who was better. From a statistical standpoint, they two are pretty close:

	GP	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
Brees	153	40,353	276	145	93.6
Brady	160	39,641	297	114	96.3

The real edge that Brady has over Brees is Super Bowl wins – Brady has 4 and Brees 1. In the Marino/Elway battle, Elway had 2 and Marino failed to win the Super Bowl in his only appearance.

I know that the traditional who’s better argument in this century has been Manning/Brady, but I really do think that it should really be Brees/Brady.

Average Would Be Nice

by A.J. Coltrane

	Offense	Defense
Mariners (runs)	30th of 30	15th of 30
Seahawks (points)	26th of 32	15th of 32
Seahawks (yards)	28th of 32	11th of 32

Seahawks (rushing)	27th	8th
Seahawks (passing)	25th	15th

(Stats current as of November 26 pm.)

The first Seattle team to “win” will be the team that can get to at least average on offense. I think both teams are at least two years away from that happening.

And The Kitchen Sink Too

by A.J. Coltrane

According to reports, the Raiders have traded for Carson Palmer. I would have been in favor of the Seahawks acquiring Palmer, but not at this price:

…the Raiders agreed to send their first-round draft choice in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 — which could become a first-round pick based on the level of Palmer’s play — to Cincinnati in exchange for the 31-year-old Palmer.

Yikes. Then there’s this:

This had better work for the Raiders, because there’s no cavalry coming if Palmer fails. The Raiders could get a compensatory pick in as high as the end of the third round for the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency. But for now they’ve traded three 2012 picks for quarterbacks — Palmer (first-rounder), Terrelle Pryor (third-) and Jason Campbell (fourth-) — and lost the second- in exchange for picks this year to take rookie tackle Joe Barksdale and running back Taiwan Jones.

The Seahawks may have actually dodged a bullet. So long as the quarterback position doesn’t become a reanimation of the Kelly Stouffer/ Dan McGwire/ Rick Mirer zombie carousel, anyway.

In other news, boy was I wrong about Aaron Curry, but then, so was everybody.

Raiders fans seem excited though.

Punt, Punt, Punt, Rinse, Repeat

by A.J. Coltrane

Yeah, I know I’m belaboring the point about Tavaris Jackson, but, as Peter King from SI writes:

Seattle’s possessions at Pittsburgh. They ended with a punt, punt, punt, end of the half, punt, punt, punt, punt, surrendered on downs, punt. Charlie Whitehurst anyone?

Charlie Whitehurst is the better option. He may even prove to have some value. Hopefully the Seahawks go to plan “Charlie” soon.

The Seahawks Keep Getting Bigger

by A.J. Coltrane

On Monday the Seahawks traded diminuitive CB Kelly Jennings to Cincinnati for 300-pound DT Clinton McDonald.

From the ESPN piece:

Clinton who?: McDonald was a seventh-round choice of the Bengals in 2009. The team had released him previously. He played in eight games last season. McDonald stands just under 6-2 and converted from linebacker in college. Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly, writing for his 2009 draft guide, lauded McDonald for possessing toughness and a mean streak. He thought McDonald would project as a three-technique defensive tackle in a one-gap scheme. McDonald was not expected to earn a roster spot in Cincinnati.

The trade continues the Seahawks process of getting bigger.

Jerry Brewer hit it on the head about a month ago:

Their goal is to build a championship team with mostly young, athletic 20-something players who possess prototypical size. They want to be an attacking defense-centered team with a mobile quarterback guiding an offense that makes opponents choke on the running game. And they want to build from within, using the draft as their primary resource and filling out the roster with smart free-agency moves that help them acquire players who still have an upside.

…and that’s why Kelly Jennings didn’t fit in anymore.

Uglier And Uglier, Or Something

by A.J. Coltrane

Predictably, expectations for the Seahawks’ season are headed south (Grantland):

FALLING

Seattle Seahawks
OPENING LINE: 7 wins, Over EVEN, Under -120
NOW: 6.5 wins, Over +145, Under -165

Even at 6.5 wins, the Seahawks’ odds keep falling. On Monday, that over was at +130. Now it sits at +145. Although they beat the Chargers in the preseason opener on Thursday, it wasn’t pretty; Tarvaris Jackson looked awful at quarterback, key left tackle Russell Okung sprained his ankle, and the Seahawks left some of their first-team players in for the entire first half, a sign of how far they have to go in installing their offense under new coordinator Darrell Bevell. Would you want to bet on the combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst winning seven or more games this season? It’s become increasingly difficult to find anyone who would say yes to that question.

The Grantland piece links this piece, which talks about the “The Magic of 55 Percent Winners” — how often gamblers have to win to succeed at gambling on sports. Very instructional if you’re at all interested in how the process works.

While we’re here, through two preseason games:

Charlie Whitehurst – 28 of 39, 71.8%, 212 yards. 1 TD, 0 INT, 93.1 rating.

Tavaris Jackson – 14 of 26, 53.8%, 88 yards. 0 TD, 1 INT, 45.0 rating.

And Coltrane favorite:

Colt McCoy – 19 of 28, 67.9%, 231 yards. 4 TD, 0 INT, 132.6 rating.

San Giorgio Commercial – Revisited

By Iron Chef Leftovers

A few weeks ago I was lamenting over a San Giorgio Spaghetti commercial that I couldn’t find, well I finally found it (in the video below at minute 1). It isn’t complete, but you will get the idea. I think they had a budget of about $10 for the commercial and picked up random people off the street to appear in it – the production values are just not there.

I got interrupted when I was watching it so I didn’t hit stop when it was over, and it lead me to encounter a commercial which I forgot about – the NY Giants singing a commercial for Pepsi Lite. I don’t know which is more disturbing – the Giants singing and dancing (terribly) in towels or that there was something called Pepsi Lite in the 1980’s. (The commercial starts at 1:32).

There are some other 1980’s, New York regional commercials in this block too, so enjoy.

Uglier And Uglier

by A.J. Coltrane

Multiple sources are reporting that the Seahawks are parting ways with Matt Hasselbeck. They chose to go with two new guys, signing Tavaris Jackson and Matt Leinhart.

Ugh.

I’m of the opinion that Hasselbeck is cooked, so I’m not broken up about him leaving — I don’t think the Seahawks were going to win more than 9 games with him anyway. Tavaris Jackson, however, is… terrrrrible. Worse than terrible. I thought he stunk with the Vikings — bad technique, bad decision making, just tons of stuff that made me glad he wasn’t my quarterback… I’m not sure I could stand watching him as the quarterback of the Seahawks on the weekly basis.

I’m hoping we won’t have to.

I seem to be in the minority in that I think Whitehurst may still prove that he can play. There’s also the possibility that Leinhart may “get his act together” and show that he’s the guy.

Here’s Mike Sando’s take on it, appropriately titled “Tavaris Jackson? What Seattles Thinking?” John Clayton also has a video at the bottom of the Sando piece.

I know that this has all been rumored for days, but now that it finally happened my reaction is… I’m disgusted.

The Vegas over/under is 6.5 wins for the Seahawks. Take the under before it moves.

Mini Factoid About Running Backs

by A.J. Coltrane

A mini factiod from a piece authored by Bill Barnwell on Bill Simmons’ new website, Grantland. The piece is about the “dangers” of signing different types of NFL free agents. The excerpt below highlights the potential drawbacks in signing free agent veteran running backs:

…that’s two impact backs in the past seven free-agent classes. Running backs simply don’t last long enough — running backs who put up a 1,000-yard season since 1983 have only been able to repeat that performance an average of 1.5 times over the remainder of their careers.

Emphasis mine.

I’m of the suspicion that the probability of a running back following his first 1,000 yard campaign with a 2nd 1,000 yard season is something like 30%.