Category: Basketball

Vegas, Day 0.

by A.J. Coltrane

We arrived in the casino on Wednesday, early evening. The late, tournament “play-in” games hadn’t started yet.

The game that interested me was Boise St. versus Dayton. I’d seen both teams recently and felt fairly confident that I knew what they were — that I had a good idea of their styles, strengths, weaknesses, and true talent levels.

To backtrack a bit: We’d been enjoying adult beverages starting in the mid-morning. (Especially me.) Free cocktails in the VIP lounge at the airport. Free cocktails on the plane. I was well lubricated. I was ready to make a “fun” bet to kick off the weekend, and Boise St. – Dayton seemed like an excellent place to start.

We made our way to the sports book and were presented with something like this:

sportsbook

But the game I wanted to place a bet on said “SUSP”. Which I took to mean “suspended”. I didn’t know why the betting might be “off” on that game so I asked the attendant:

Me:  “Is the betting off on the Boise St. game?”

Attendant:  “Let’s see… no, the line is +4.5 for Boise St.”

That means that if I were to take Boise St. at say, $50, and they were to either win outright or lose by 4 or less, then I’d win $45.45 and pocket a total of $95.45, counting my original $50 I’d get back. Not bad. But then I’m thinking that if Boise St. is that slim of an underdog maybe I can make more money by betting them to win outright….

Me:  “What’s the Money Line?” (Odds for Boise St. to win outright.)

Attendant:  “+175”

Now that’s interesting! If Boise St. wins outright then I’ll win $87.50 and pocket $137.50. That, to my mind, is a good value bet in this scenario. So, quickly, and with confidence…

Me:  “$50 on the Money Line please.”

Random Regular Leaning On The Counter To My Right:  “Me Likey! They’re my team!”

And by that, he doesn’t mean he’s rooting for Boise St., only that he has money on them too. I take it as an encouraging sign that one of the degenerates approves of my taste in Boise St.

The game begins. Our favorite bartender is feeding me more adult beverages, and I’m feeling pretty good about things:

Boise St. led 29-17 with 2:09 to go in the 1st half.

Boise St. led 29-20 at halftime.

Boise St. led 50-41 with 6:36 to go in the game.

At the 1:24 mark it was still 53-50, Boise St.

Then:

[Dayton’s] Jordan Sibert’s two free throws tied it at 53-53 with 1:02 left, and his long 3-pointer gave the Flyers a 56-55 lead with 34 seconds to go.

After [Boise St.’s] Montigo Alford missed a driving bank shot, [Dayton’s] Pollard got the rebound, was fouled and missed both free throws with 14 seconds left, giving the Broncos a final shot.

The final, contested 3-point attempt by Boise St. missed everything.

Ugh.

But it gets worse before it gets better…

 

 

The Bracket Of Peril – 2015 Edition

by A.J. Coltrane

The Bracket Of Peril is back!

Link here.

The group name is Cheap Seat Eats. Password is TakeMeOut.

They made it easier to join this year. If you played in the group last year you can simply select “Rejoin Group”, and away you go. Up to three entries per person. Have some fun with it and make a non-Kentucky bracket too!

As usual, the winner gets a whole bunch of nothing!

Join soon, the tournament starts Thursday, with the play-in games on Tuesday.

Are You Just Glad To See Me?

by A. J. Coltrane

Tonight is LeBron’s “homecoming” game in Cleveland.

Other NBA matchups (ESPN/StubHub prices):

MATCHUP TICKETS
Washington at Orlando 501 available from $12
Detroit at Minnesota 215 available from $19
New York at Cleveland 56 available from $701
Utah at Dallas 1,064 available from $13
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers 2,159 available from $27

Looks like Cleveland is glad alright.

—-

When is that last time you heard someone say that they were “glad”?

—-

I’m watching the 2nd quarter right now. LeBron lost weight in the offseason and looks like a bigger and younger version of Paul Pierce. He’s positively light on his feet. The rest of the NBA should be terrified.

 

The New ESPN “Odds And Info” Page

by A.J. Coltrane

ESPN has what I think is a new page — “Odds and Info”. It’s on their front page tab right above “Poker”. Clicking through takes you to a page called “Chalk”, which is about as neutral a name as they could have picked so as not to upset the squares.

The funny thing is that when I stumbled onto it yesterday the tab and page were both named “Betting.” Maybe ESPN instantly got complaints?

Two thoughts:

1.  It’s going to continue to get harder to gamble on sports as information becomes more widely available. That process has been going on since the 1980’s — it’s always been a matter knowing more than the general population. Back then a copy of the Sporting News was enough. Not anymore.

2.  On September 5th, new NBA commissioner Adam Silver said that legalized sports gambling was “inevitable” [ESPN]:

NBA commissioner Adam Silver believes expanded legalized sports betting in the United States is “inevitable,” and the league is open to participating in it.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Sports Business Summit on Thursday in New York, Silver said that he understood that cash-strapped states will pursue legalized sports betting and that the NBA can benefit from it.

“It’s inevitable that, if all these states are broke, that there will be legalized sports betting in more states than Nevada,” Silver said, per Bloomberg.com. “We will ultimately participate in that.”

It’s a change in tune for the NBA, which in 2012 joined the NCAA, NFL, MLB and NHL in suing New Jersey over its efforts to bring legalized sports betting to its casinos and race tracks…

and

“If you have a gentleman’s bet or a small wager on any kind of sports contest, it makes you that much more engaged in it,” Silver said. “That’s where we’re going to see it pay dividends. If people are watching a game and clicking to bet on their smartphones, which is what people are doing in the United Kingdom right now, then it’s much more likely you’re going to stay tuned for a long time.”

More than $3.6 billion was wagered on sports at Nevada sports books in 2013. The American Gaming Association, citing the National Gambling Impact Study, estimates that as much as $380 billion is wagered illegally in the U.S. annually.

Silver seems to think that legally allowing gambling will be good for the NBA, attracting more eyeballs to the telecasts. Given what fantasy football has done for the popularity of the NFL, he may be right. It certainly won’t lead to *fewer* people watching the NBA.

My guess is that ESPN is very quietly trying to get ahead of the curve, or at least not get left behind. Between Silver’s statement, the New Jersey lawsuit, and this new ESPN page, it seems like we’re near a tipping point for legalized sports gambling in the USA.

Something else to help keep me entertained in my retirement!

A New Approach To The NBA Draft

by A.J. Coltrane

From this Grantland link.

The Sacramento Kings are crowdsourcing the NBA draft this year. They solicited input from all non-professional basketball analysts on the internet. They selected nine of those people to video conference with the Kings’ decision makers.

Four of those analysts are going to accompany the team to the draft.

It seems to me to be a *very* smart thing to do. I’ll be paying attention to the outcome.

For what it’s worth — I really like their Noah Vonleh option. I think he’s going to be a terrific player for a long time. I’m not sure that everyone agrees, though Chad Ford has him at #5 on his Big Board.

—–

Here’s a short ESPN piece that talks about what stats tend to translate from college to the NBA.

2014 Bracket of Peril – The Results Show

By Blaidd Drwg

Well, this year’s “Bracket of Peril” was definitely perilous for all of the participants. Not only did no one pick the eventual champion UConn, no one in the pool had more than one final 4 team, and that was a just about everyone and we all had Florida. Most of our fates were sealed during the elite 8 when everyone’s final 4 teams except for Florida were knocked out.

As a result of that, there were 2 players left standing, with the bracket hinging on the Florida-UConn game.  The way it played out JD (sorry, we will only use initials, but you know who you are) had Florida losing the title game and TJ had Florida winning it. Basically, if Florida won the National Championship, TJ would have claimed the CSE title, otherwise we had a tie (I hate total points as the tiebreaker; it is like using rock-paper-scissors or penalty kicks to break a tie). As you know, Florida was upset by UConn, leaving us with the kiss your sister moment of having to crown co-champions in the 2014 Bracket of Peril.

There was much rejoicing.

Congratulations to JD and TJ for surviving, ending the reign of Annie S., and we look forward to you defending your title in 2015 when we introduce even more peril.

Until then, enjoy the accolades that come with winning and this picture of a grail-shaped beacon since we can’t actually afford a real trophy.

Disclaimer: Castle Anthrax not included. There is just too much peril.
Disclaimer: Castle Anthrax not included. There is just too much peril.

Back In My Day

by A.J. Coltrane

Excerpts from Ken Pomeroy:

I’ve tweeted about this a couple times, but it’s worth documenting in a more permanent location: This season, free throws were shot at a better rate than in any previous season in the history of college basketball. To date, my calculations indicate that D-I teams have made 69.82 percent of their attempts from the free throw line. According to the NCAA record book, the previous best was the 69.7 percent made in the 1979 season.

It’s an odd phenomenon, but analysts, journalists, and coaches appear to be programmed to bash fundamentals. That’s another subject deserving of its own article, but criticizing modern free-throw shooting has always been a dubious exercise within that realm. After all, that’s one fundamental we can measure, and free-throw percentage has essentially been constant for the last 50 years.

But my perception is that most people in the game feel like free-throw shooting was better way back when. And if people can’t get that right, one should be skeptical when other fundamentals are criticized. Are players really worse at setting screens, or scoring with their off hand than they were 30 years ago?  I think it’s reasonable to wonder whether we’ve been lied to all along about those things as well.

At least in one respect, the modern player is more fundamentally sound than he’s ever been. And that might be the one subject that’s more boring to write or talk about than random variation. Even in the short time we have left this season, we may hear someone else lament about the state of free-throw shooting. This is one case where that person will not just be wrong, but as far from the truth as one could possibly be.

Bold emphasis mine.

 

My feeling is that college players execute fundamentals as least as well as they once did, when they choose to. Given the free throw shooting numbers, I’d think that jump shooting is as good or better than it’s ever been too. It’s just that today’s defenses are now way more athletic and sophisticated. The court is only so big, the athletes playing on it have gotten bigger and longer over time, and it’s hard to shoot well with a hand in your face all the time.

This may be old fogeyism, but I think the player development system (read: AAU ball) encourages the best players to look for their own shot, and doesn’t reward things like setting screens, blocking out, or sharing the ball. There are more “combo” guards today than there have ever been — primary ball handlers who are programmed to shoot first and think about distributing the ball (or anything else) second.

I think the change in emphasis is what’s bothering the fossils.

Vegas Thoughts, 2014

by A.J. Coltrane

I had pretty much the same year that I had last year — 22-14 (61.1%) on straight bets. I lost the one money line that I chose to play:  Providence were 4 point underdogs against UNC and +170 on the money line, meaning that if Providence won outright then the money line paid loosely twice what the “cover” bet would have paid. Providence lost by two, and covered, but I’d bet on them to win, so…   [insert raspberry sound here]

I also tried to get the +150 money line bet on La Tech against Georgia in the NIT, (and I would have won), but the slowpoke working the sportsbook decided he needed to restock pens instead of taking bets, and we missed the cutoff to place a bet on the game.  [insert another raspberry sound here]

This year’s VCU (misunderstood by the public) team was Colorado. Colorado were mild underdogs against Pitt. They trailed 46-18 at the half and went on to lose by 33. There are a few like that every year that are real head-scratchers, but they’re a big part of the success I’ve been seeing the last few years, so I’m not complaining.

Also, people had no idea that Tennessee is really pretty good.

Final note:  I *could* have gone 22-12 (64.7%) this year, but I ignored the beautiful fairy in my ear telling me to lay off of Ohio State vs Dayton. Twice. Once before my defensible-but-not-awesome-Ohio-State 1st half bet, and again at halftime before an even more ill-advised 2nd half bet.  “Ohio State is playing as badly as they can play. They can’t play worse than this!”

Nope. But they can play equally badly in the second half.

——-

For Fun. Here’s what I think I like Thursday and Friday:

Thursday:

Dayton vs Stanford, Over 133.

Baylor +3.5 vs Wisconsin. This is the game that I’m the least “sold on” for Thursday.

Florida -5 vs UCLA. (Though UCLA is better than people think, still.)

Arizona -7 vs San Diego State

Friday:

Michigan -2.5 vs Tennessee. (Sorry Tennessee, we had a good run!)

Iowa State vs UConn Under 146. The game that I’m the least “sold on” for Friday.

Louisville -5 vs Kentucky

Virginia +2 vs Michigan State. (The Virginia +115 money line looks like a good play too. Either/or would be fine.)

 

For the purposes of the “For Fun  Bets”, I unpacked and unfolded my NCAA notes. The compacted smell of Vegas cigarettes wafted out. Now the notes are sitting on the couch, stinking it up. Yay Vegas.