Destination Unknown

by Coltrane

The chart below shows the ages of the “rotation” players (19+ minutes per game) of three teams I think Lebron is most likely to go to, listed by order of playing time. I don’t think he’s going to the Knicks or Nets. (The Knicks don’t have the second star to play with, or cap room to afford it without gutting the team. The Nets just plain stink.)

The “21” in the Bulls column is Derrick Rose. Rose is a potential perennial All-Star. The Bulls have Joaquim Noah too. Noah is developing into a very good player.

The “21” in the Heat column is headcase Michael Beasley. Beasley is basically trade bait. The “28” is Dwayne Wade, who has more miles on his odometer than the usual 28 year-old. If Wade breaks down what does Miami have to offer?

Cavs	Heat	Bulls
27	28	25
33	21	21
27	31	29
34	29	25
26	30	24
38	33	34
34	23	30
21	30	27
25	24

Average	Average	Average
29.4	27.7	26.9

The Cavs are borderline old and they’re not going to get better going forward– they’re just going to get more old. It’s time for Lebron to go to elsewhere. If it weren’t for the shadow of Jordan I’d assume he was going to Chicago.

I’m guessing Chicago regardless. My second guess is Miami. It should be fun watching the circus.

Pickup Game

by Coltrane

This is in reference to the Stanford-UConn Women’s Championship Game post. If the Stanford men’s team were to play the UConn women’s team in a pickup game the matchups would look something like this:

Starter	Size	PPG	Starter	Size	PPG (Conf)
Landry Fields	6-7 G/F	22.0	Maya Moore	6-0 F	18.1
Jack Trotter	6-9 F	6.8	Tina Charles	6-4 C	18.9
Jeremy Green	6-4 G	16.6	Tiffany Hayes	5-10 G	8.9
Drew Shiller	6-0 G	7.5	Kalana Green	5-10 G	11.2
Jarret Mann	6-3 PG	5.8	Caroline Doty	5-10 G	6.2

Bench			Bench
Andrew Zimmermann	6-9 F	4.4	Kelly Faris	5-11 G	3.4
Emmanuel Igbinosa	6-2 G	3.9	Megan Gardler	6-0 F	4.3
Da’Veed Dildy	6-4 G	1.1	Lorin Dixon	5-4 G	3.5
			Kaili McLaren	6-2 F	3.7

The UConn women have two players on their team over six feet tall. They’d be giving up 5-6 inches per player. If this pickup game happened in real life the shorter team would insist on mixing up the teams. No contest.

Why Play This Game?

by Blaidd Drwg

#1 UCONN is playing #2 Stanford for the Women’s hoops crown tonight. Why bother? UCONN has won what seems like 5,000 straight games (they last lost in the 2008 final four to Stanford), has beaten 16 (!) ranked opponents this season (including Stanford once this season), has an average margin of victory of 30+ points, hasn’t had an opponent come within less than 20 points of beating them in over a month and has murdered its opponents in the tournament:

Game	Opponent	Opp Rank	Margin Of Victory
1	Southern	NR	56
2	Temple	NR	54
3	Iowa State	#16	38
4	Florida St	#11	40
5	Baylor	#18	20

That Rank column is National Rank, not seed. When was the last time that you saw a top 20 team in any sport get blow out the way that Iowa St, Florida St and Baylor have? This one just won’t be close – unless Stanford’s men’s team shows up for this game.

Dennis Johnson joins the Hall

by Coltrane

Dennis Johnson has been elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame.

Los Angeles Lakers owner Jerry Buss, high school coaching great Bob Hurley Sr., and WNBA star Cynthia Cooper also were in the class announced at the Final Four. NBA veterans Dennis Johnson and Gus Johnson and international star Maciel “Ubiratan” Pereira will be honored posthumously.

I think that his induction was overdue. It’s interesting though, that when compared to Pippen and Gary Payton his credentials don’t look all that overwhelming:

	Points per Game	Rebounds per Game	Assists per Game	All Defensive Team Selections	All NBA Team	All Star	PER Rating	MVP Award Shares
Scottie Pippen	16.1	6.4	5.2	10	7	7	18.6	0.716
Gary Payton	16.3	3.9	6.7	9	9	9	18.9	0.823
Dennis Johnson	14.1	3.9	5.0	9	2	5	14.6	0.084
Player “X”	15.6	4.7	3.6	5	5	5	18.7	0.695

For example, Kevin Garnett has 2.752 award shares over the course of his career, good for 13th all-time. Chris Webber is 45th with .588 Shares. The complete list is here.

Johnson never got much respect from the voters. Larry Bird called him the greatest player he ever played with. I don’t know what that says about Kevin McHale..

My most vivid memory of Dennis Johnson was from when he was with the Celtics. He was on a fast break, and he and another player met at the hoop. Johnson banged the back of his head on the backboard. I remember him picking himself back up while rubbing the back of his head. I’m sure most Boston fans best remember his basket after this steal by Larry Bird during the 1987 Conference Finals against the Pistons. (Isiah Thomas was the victim on that play.)

I threw Player “X” in there for fun. Player X had a condition with his knees that forced him out of the league by age 33. By contrast, Payton and Pipen played through age 38. Johnson retired after his age 35 season.

Player X? That’s Sidney Moncrief.

Here come the Oregon Ducks

by Coltrane

Tim Floyd (former USC and NBA coach) has taken over the helm at UTEP.

Steve Lavin (former UCLA coach and ESPN broadcaster) is now at St. Johns.

The really interesting one to me was Tom Izzo of Michigan State denying that he had been contacted by Oregon.

Ernie Kent is gone. Oregon has hundreds of thousands of Phil Knight’s dollars. They have the Nike empire behind them. Expect them to make a huge splash with their next basketball head coach. It may not be Tom Izzo, but don’t be surprised when it’s a household name. Keep in mind that many basketball camps and AAU teams are affiliated with a brand of shoes and clothing, either “Nike” or somebody else — it’s a huge amount of exposure.

Ernie Kent wasn’t a bad coach, but if Oregon gets a really good, really well connected coach and Nike throws its weight behind him — look out.

Conventional Wisdom – Sweet 16

by Coltrane

Source: ESPN Tournament Challenge. Listed below are the odds that “America” gave each team to make the Sweet 16.

Seed, Team, Odds	Rank
1 Kansas – 90.3%	1
1 Kentucky – 83.9%	2
1 Syracuse – 82.7%	3
2 West Virginia – 76.1%	4
1 Duke – 73.6%	5
2 Kansas State – 62.6%	6
2 Villanova – 58.5%	7
2 Ohio State – 46.8%	8
3 Georgetown – 41.8%	9
3 Baylor – 30.6%	10
3 Pittsburgh – 25.7%	11
3 New Mexico – 13.0%	12
5 Texas A&M – 8.7%	13
9 Louisville – 8.2%	14
4 Wisconsin – 8.0%	15
6 Notre Dame – 7.6%	16
6 Tennessee – 7.0%	17
6 Marquette – 6.7%	18
4 Purdue – 6.5%	19
4 Vanderbilt – 6.5%	20
5 Butler – 5.7%	21
5 Michigan State – 4.8%	22
7 Brigham Young – 4.6%	23
6 Xavier – 4.5%	24
4 Maryland – 3.7%	25
8 Texas – 3.5%	26
8 Gonzaga – 2.9%	27
5 Temple – 2.8%	28
7 Oklahoma State – 2.1%	29
7 Richmond – 1.8%	30
10 Georgia Tech – 1.5%	31
7 Clemson – 1.5%	32
11 Washington – 1.2%	33
11 Minnesota – 1.2%	34
10 Missouri – 1.2%	35
13 Siena – 1.1%	36
8 California – 1.1%	37
10 Florida – 1.1%	38
12 Cornell – 1.0%	39
10 Saint Mary’s – 0.9%	40
9 Florida State – 0.8%	41
12 UTEP – 0.8%	42
12 Utah State – 0.6%	43
9 Wake Forest – 0.5%	44
11 San Diego State – 0.4%	45
13 Murray State – 0.4%	46
9 Northern Iowa – 0.3%	47
11 Old Dominion – 0.3%	48
8 UNLV – 0.3%	49
15 North Texas – 0.3%	50
15 Morgan State – 0.2%	51
15 UC Santa Barbara – 0.2%	52
16 Vermont – 0.2%	53
15 Robert Morris – 0.2%	54
13 Houston – 0.2%	55
16 Lehigh – 0.2%	56
16 East Tennessee State – 0.2%	57
16 AR-Pine Bluff – 0.2%	58
14 Ohio – 0.2%	59
14 Montana – 0.2%	60
12 New Mexico State – 0.1%	61
14 Oakland – 0.1%	62
13 Wofford – 0.1%	63
14 Sam Houston State – 0.1%	64

When filling out my bracket I was looking for:

1. Teams that had guys who could create their own shot with the shot clock running down. This could either be a quick, slashing guard or a Wally Szerbiak equivalent.

2. Teams with experienced guards who share the ball. Note that this is often incompatible with the first point, above. Some teams like Texas lack a true point guard, running combo guards out there instead. Generally speaking I try to avoid teams with one guy who dribbles too much.

3. Teams with good size and length (duh). Ideally the team will have a Tyrus Thomas type, to shut down the J.J. Reddicks of the world.

4. Teams with a high basketball IQ. I was looking for guys who know how to play.

Teams I liked better than everyone else:

#21 Butler – They have the Szerbiak type and they’re fundamentally sound. Good size too.

#23 BYU – I put too much faith into the spreadsheets. Ken Pomeroy’s stats loved them.

#25 Maryland – Another Szerbiak type in Greivis Vasquez. This one didn’t work out either.

#31 Georgia Tech, #34 Minnesota, #41 UTEP, #42 Florida State — I liked them for the same reason I liked Baylor. They’re big, physical teams that I thought would “eat” smaller teams.

#37 California — Pac 10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle is a small guard with a great jump shot and good quickness, he can score on anyone. They had the misfortune of running into Duke early.

#47 Northern Iowa. A whole team of guys who know how to play. Good size, good shooting. I didn’t pick them to beat Kansas either.

Teams everyone else liked more than I did:

#14 Louisville — I never watched Louisville and thought that they’d succeed when the sledding got rough. No real team identity on offense.

#16 Notre Dame — The media picks one Great White Hope every year. This year it was Luke Harangody. Combined with the Big East pedigree it was no surprise that they were really overrated. It was also no real surprise that Notre Dame played just as well when Harangody was out with an injury.

#17 Tennessee, #22 Michigan State, #26 Texas — All teams built around little combo guards who dribble too much. It’s ok to have a *big* combo guard, but little ones can be disaster when they get a long athelete harassing them.

#20 Vanderbilt — I didn’t “get” Vanderbilt. Nobody on that team really grabbed me.

#33 Washington — After looking totally disfunctional all year the Huskies turned it on in the tournament. Far and away my biggest surprise.

The New Big Country

by Coltrane

Hasheem Thabeet is headed to the NBA Developmental (D)-League. Thabeet was the #2 pick in the 2009 draft. He becomes the highest draft pick ever to be sent to the D-League.

The popular comparison in the press is Darko Milicic, the #2 pick in the 2003 draft. I don’t think it’s the most accurate comparison. Milicic was drafted as an 18 year-old from Serbia. He has been in the league six years and he’s still less than two years older than Thabeet, who played four years at UConn.

The better comparison is Bryant “Big Country” Reeves. Reeves was the 6th pick of the 1995 draft. He played four years at Oklahoma State and was out of the league by age 27. Both Thabeet and Reeves led their teams as Seniors to the Final Four, which contributed to why they each got drafted as high as they did. Both had great size and were prolific shot blockers, but neither was mobile.

In a word, they’re both stiffs.

If there was any question that Thabeet would struggle at the pro level there’s a game that should have raised red flags in NBA draft rooms. The game took place late in Thabeet’s Senior year against Pittburgh and 2009 #39 draft pick DeJuan Blair:

February 16, 2009: Pittsburgh 76, UConn 68
DeJuan Blair: 10-17 FG, 22 Points, 23 Rebounds (6 offensive), 38 minutes
Hasheem Thabeet: 1-5 FG, 5 Points, 4 Rebounds, 23 minutes (5 fouls)

It was a direct comparison in a high level game. Blair completely dominated Thabeet. Somehow, the executives missed it. He must have looked great in individual workouts.

Footnote: Blair has no ACLs in either knee. That’s one reason that he was drafted in the 2nd round. Much like Leon Powe, he slipped due to concerns about his knees. The Spurs got a steal.

The Rapaport Rule

by Coltrane

I finally got the chance to watch last weekend’s NBA All-Star Celebrity Game.

You may remember Michael Rapaport from the film “True Romance.” (He played Dick Ritchie, Cristian Slater’s clueless actor friend.)

During last year’s celebrity game Rapaport fouled the bejeezus out of anything that moved. He must have committed 20 or more fouls, and they weren’t even “good” fouls. He was just hammering down every time he got near the ball. When interviewed and confronted with the fact that everyone thought he was playing like a jerkwad, he responded by saying “No blood, no foul”. Rapaport was playing ratball and figured it was normal. Needless to say, that’s not really the way to play around former NBA, WBNA, and mostly B-list celebrities during an exhibition game.

This year Rapaport got invited to the game again. During the leadup to the game the celebrity ref (NBA announcer Mike Breen) said that there were two new rules this year:

1. Zero tolerance on backtalk to the ref.

2. A new “Rapaport Rule”: Ten fouls and you’re gone. However, the rule only applies to, you guessed it, Michael Rapaport.

I’ve now watched as far as the late 3rd quarter. Rapaport has been as docile as a puppy. (Not the kind of puppy that chews on the table leg or gets excited and pees on the floor; he’s been the friendly, mellow, good puppy that everyone likes.) Of course, in this case the puppy is a non-stop trash talker.

Evidently Michael Rapaport can take a hint.

————————

If the presence of guns in a movie doesn’t rule it out for you, True Romance is a great film. The cast includes Cristian Slater, Patricia Arquette, Christopher Walken, Dennis Hopper, Gary Oldman, Samuel L. Jackson, Val Kilmer, and Brad Pitt as Rapaport’s stoner roommate Floyd. The movie is written by Quentin Tarantino.