by A.J. Coltrane

From left to right:  Team Name, Kenpom Rank (minimum, top 50), 3-point percentage and rank, free throw percentage and rank, 3-point attempted quantity and rank. The ranks are relative to all 347 Division I teams.

Then it’s me screwing around with numbers. The “Vol” is the Volatility of the team. It’s 3P% x 3PA%. These are the teams that rely upon 3-pointers for a lot of their offense. If they get hot they can beat anybody, and if they get cold they could lose to anybody. Conversely, a team with a low “Vol” doesn’t take many 3’s and isn’t good at shooting them. A team with a low “Vol” isn’t likely to shoot itself out of, or back into, a game.

The “VR” is that team’s “Vol” rank among the top 150 teams according to Kenpom. (I didn’t care about the Weak Sisters Of The Poor.) “Vol” wound up ranging from 1658 to something like 800. The lowest team on the “top 50 Kenpom list” is NC State at 920. I think it’s telling that the top 50 teams can all shoot at least a little, and with some volume.

The teams are sorted by Q-E, explained below.

Team	Rank	3P%		FT%		3PA%		Vol	VR	Q-E
Cincinnati	37	31.8	266	64.6	305	36.7	75	1167.1	75	-191
Illinois	36	32.8	211	71	116	40.9	28	1341.5	37	-183
Wisconsin	5	34.7	121	62.4	328	39.3	44	1363.7	30	-77
Iowa	34	30.4	304	72.1	77	31	230	942.4	122	-74
Akron	46	34.5	134	66	268	37.3	65	1286.9	45	-69
Wichita St.	35	34	164	68.6	197	35.8	101	1217.2	59	-63
Virginia Commonwealth	22	34.5	129	68.6	199	37.1	69	1280.0	48	-60
Nevada Las Vegas	30	32.7	214	70.4	137	33.8	156	1105.3	89	-58
Denver	42	36.7	53	74.2	34	45.2	3	1658.8	1	-50
Baylor	49	33.8	173	68.5	203	34.6	134	1169.5	73	-39
Iowa St.	38	37.3	42	72.9	61	43	12	1603.9	5	-30
Marquette	24	29.7	317	73.8	41	27.2	298	807.8	140	-19
Arizona	19	36	73	74.1	35	37.7	59	1357.2	33	-14
Oklahoma St.	15	32.4	229	74	38	31.3	219	1014.1	106	-10
Syracuse	9	32.2	240	68.4	205	30.9	235	995.0	110	-5
Mississippi	41	34	163	69.4	168	33.5	161	1139.0	83	-2
Florida	1	38.4	22	68	217	41.4	25	1589.8	6	3
San Diego St.	26	33.5	183	68	218	32.5	190	1088.8	91	7
Louisville	3	32	251	71.1	114	29.9	259	956.8	116	8
Oregon	39	31.3	283	71.8	91	27.8	292	870.1	138	9
New Mexico	28	34.7	120	72.7	66	34.5	136	1197.2	66	16
Belmont	32	38.6	15	72.7	65	40.2	32	1551.7	8	17
Missouri	27	33.5	185	75	23	31.8	205	1065.3	98	20
St. Mary’s	18	38.6	15	72.9	59	38.4	51	1482.2	16	36
Creighton	20	41.8	2	74.8	25	39.4	41	1646.9	3	39
Miami FL	13	35.5	90	65.9	270	34.1	147	1210.6	63	57
Minnesota	17	32.6	219	68.9	186	29	278	945.4	121	59
St. Louis	25	35.7	81	70.1	145	34	150	1213.8	61	69
Connecticut	47	35.9	77	75.1	21	34.2	146	1227.8	56	69
Michigan	10	38.5	20	70.8	122	35.3	106	1359.1	32	86
Georgetown	14	35.7	83	68.1	215	31.8	204	1135.3	84	121
Kansas St.	33	35.8	80	69.2	176	31.9	201	1142.0	81	121
Colorado St.	23	34.1	158	71.7	94	27.8	293	948.0	120	135
Colorado	43	34.5	136	67.3	240	28.4	286	979.8	113	150
Ohio St.	11	36.1	71	70.1	150	30.7	242	1108.3	88	171
Indiana	2	42.6	1	74.8	27	32.9	173	1401.5	25	172
Notre Dame	45	37.4	40	70.1	149	31.2	223	1166.9	76	183
Michigan St.	12	35	110	70.3	139	27.1	300	948.5	119	190
Kansas	8	35.9	75	72.4	68	29.4	271	1055.5	101	196
Duke	6	41.6	3	72.2	76	32	200	1331.2	39	197
North Carolina	31	36.3	66	65.8	276	29.5	269	1070.9	95	203
UCLA	48	34.5	130	71.6	97	23.3	335	803.9	141	205
Pittsburgh	7	35	108	66.3	260	25.6	317	896.0	131	209
Gonzaga	4	37.9	33	71.9	87	30.5	246	1156.0	77	213
Virginia	16	40.4	6	71.5	100	31.1	227	1256.4	53	221
Kentucky	29	36.6	58	64.8	301	28.9	282	1057.7	99	224
Memphis	40	36.5	59	67.7	230	27.6	296	1007.4	109	237
Middle Tennessee	21	38.5	19	69.1	181	26.8	303	1031.8	102	284
North Carolina St.	44	40.2	7	68.2	210	22.9	339	920.6	126	332

Q-E is pretty self-explanatory:  It’s 3PA% rank minus 3P% rank. (The Excel columns were “Q” and “E”. Yeah, I’m a big thinker.) As an example, Cincinnati is the first team listed with a -191. They’re 75th in 3-pointers attempted, and 266th in accuracy. 75 – 266 = -191. My suspicion is that the teams with large negative numbers are going to shoot themselves out of the tournament at some point. Offhand, I’d also guess that those teams lack a guy who can create his own shot, or slash and kick, leading to some desperation heaves late in the shot clock. I’ve seen Cincinnati. It doesn’t feel like an unrealistic set of assumptions. Watching them the other night I kept saying “They look really disjointed…”

On the other hand, the strongly positive teams may benefit from shooting more 3’s. That might bode well if they happen to fall behind and are forced to try to catch up quickly.

It’s interesting to me that there are only two “top-50” teams at worse than -100 “Vol”, but twenty-two teams at better than +100. A large percentage of the top teams are relatively judicious with their 3-point attempts. My guess is that the unwashed masses are shooting a lot of 3’s that they shouldn’t be, but they’ve got to create offense somehow, so that’s how it goes.

If I was smarter I’d be able to do a regression of 3P% vs FT%, I’d expect that there’s some positive correlation to it. At the very least, it illustrates that Cincinnati can’t shoot free throws, either. Poor free throw shooting may do them in, too.

Final note. I like Florida, but their 6th-ranked “Vol” score kinda gives me the heebies.

Burn After Reading mini-spoiler below.

by A.J. Coltrane

A quick recap of the highlighed Thursday/Friday games and picks:

VCU/Wichita State (Pick Wichita):  Wrong! VCU won by 3 after leading by 10 for much of the 2nd half, 72-69.

West Virginia/ Gonzaga (Pick Gonzaga):  Wrong! Blowout by Gonzaga, 77-54.

Texas/ Cincinnati (Pick, pass):  Texas opened the game something like 1-10 from the floor and trailed by as much as 19, then came back to tie before losing by 6.

NC State/ San Diego State (Pick, NC State):  Correct. NC State was too physical for SDS and won by 14.

Virginia/ Florida (Pick Florida):  Correct. I have Florida as a Final Four team in one of my brackets. I had a rooting interest. Final score:  71-45. I was fine with a blowout.

Purdue/ St. Mary’s (Pick Purdue):  Correct. Purdue won by 3 in a game that was close at the end. 72-69.

Annie S. and I have three brackets each in the same ESPN Tournament Challenge group (77 participants). Annie is currently in 1st, 3rd, and 4th, with the top bracket in the 99.9 percentile. I’m 5th, 6th, and 14th. We’re going to take over the world! (Though right now I’m Pinky and she’s Brain.)

———-

Games to watch:

(8)Kansas St vs (1)Syracuse, 9:15 Saturday on CBS. (Pick, pass):  Just out of morbid curiosity. Kansas St is better (I think) than the general public perception. So is Syracuse.

(5) Vanderbilt vs (4)Wisconsin, 3:10 Saturday on TNT. (Pick Vandy):  Vanderbilt has a smart, veteran team that can really shoot. Wisconsin has their usual highly efficient and very slow setup. I’m rooting for Vanderbilt, they play an aesthetically attractive brand of basketball.

(12)VCU vs (4)Indiana, 4:10 Saturday on TBS. (Pick Indiana):  Can VCU do it again?

(5)New Mexico vs (4)Louisville, 6:40 Saturday on TNT. (Pick Louisville):  Louisville is fun to watch, and I have them as a Final Four team in one of my brackets. That aside, it should be an entertaining game.

Sunday looks like a bunch of dogs.

(13)Ohio vs (12)South Florida, 4:10 Sunday on TBS. (Pick USF):  USF smothered Cal in their play-in game, then smothered Temple — the halftime score was 19-15 Temple, then USF started making shots and it was over. USF is fun to watch and better than the public perception. If I were in Vegas this weekend I’d be riding USF like a rented mule, whatever that means.

I’ll be watching on Sunday, but I expect to see the favorites win most of the games. In the morning game NC State may be able to give Georgetown a challenge. The late game is Cincy/Florida State, which should be close, and ugly. Lehigh (they beat Duke)/ Xavier (defeated Notre Dame) should be competitive, if not easy on the eyes.

by A.J. Coltrane

By request. The NCAA tournament games on the opening Thursday and Friday that I think will be the most watchable and/or interesting.

Full schedule here. All times Pacific.

(12)VCU vs (5)Wichita State, 4:15 Thursday on Tru TV — VCU was last year’s Cinderalla. They’re an up-tempo pressure team. Statheads love Wichita State this year and their highly efficient offense. It’s a contrast of styles. (My pick: Wichita State)

(10)West Virgina vs (7)Gonzaga, 4:20 Thursday on TNT — It’s Gonzaga. The game is being played 75 miles from the WVU campus. It looks like an entertaining matchup to me. (My pick: WVU)

(11)Texas vs (6)Cincinnati, 9:15 Friday on CBS — Texas may win this one. (My pick: pass)

(11)NC State vs (6)San Diego State, 9:40 Friday on Tru TV — I think that this is another potential upset, though I don’t think it’s going to be a pretty game. Texas/Cincy will likely be the more entertaining game, if you have to choose between the two. (My pick: NC State)

(10)Viginia vs (7)Florida, 11:10 Friday on Tru TV — Virginia (with former WSU coach Tony Bennett) will slow it down, Florida will shoot a bunch of threes. Another fun contrast of styles between two fairly evenly matched teams. (My pick:  Florida) 

(10)Purdue vs (7)St. Mary’s, 4:27 Friday on Tru TV — Good, smart veteran guys for both teams. It should be well played and competitive. (My pick: Purdue)

All the games will be televised, either on CBS, TNT, TBS, or Tru TV. If I’ve picked a game that turns out to be a loser there should be something else that’s fun to watch at the same time. Flip around.

by A.J. Coltrane

Ain’t she a beaut?

My favorite sporting event of the year, by far.

I will now go apologize to the Super Bowl.

By Blaidd Drwg

I really need to congratulate myself. With Ohio St. losing, my bracket is officially done, before the Elite 8. I think this has to be a record for someone who was actually picking games with some degree of knowledge. There were some great games in the Sweet 16 – Bulter continues to surprise everyone, Uconn still refuses to lose, and VCU and Florida St. are in a barn burner. You have to love an Elite 8 with only one #1 seed left. Here are the gritty details :

Coltrane	Annie S	Blaidd Drwg	Winner
Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Kentucky
Syracuse	North Carolina	Syracuse	North Carolina
Uconn	SDSU	SDSU	Uconn
Duke	Duke	Duke	Arizona
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Butler
Florida	Florida	Michigan St.	Florida
Notre Dame	Purdue	Notre Dame	VCU
Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
W – 3  L – 5	W – 3  L – 5	W – 1  L – 7

Here are the standings after the Not So Sweet 16:

	Wins	Points
Blaidd Drwg	31	400
Coltrane	34	520
Annie S.	31	470

Basically bragging rights are coming down to the Florida-Butler game. If Florida wins, Annie S. gets bragging rights and if Butler wins, Coltrane takes the crown. They both have Kansas winning the whole thing, so that is the only game where there is a chance for Annie to take the lead. Here is what we all have remaining:

	Elite 8	Final 4	Final 2	Champ
Blaidd Drwg	1	0	0	0
Coltrane	3	1	1	1
Annie S.	3	2	1	1

I am pulling for Butler for the rest of the Tournament. Not that I want to see Coltrane win, I just want to see Butler have another shot at a national title. Besides, how could you not cheer for a team where the head coach looks like he is fresh out of high school himself.

By Blaidd Drwg

Not a good day for any of us. Losing ND further destroys my already miserable bracket.  The ugly truth:

Coltrane	Annie S	Blaidd Drwg	Winner
Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse	Marquette
UNC	UNC	UNC	UNC
Duke	Duke	Duke	Duke
Texas	Texas	Texas	Arizona
Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
Purdue	Purdue	Georgetown	VCU
Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Florida St.
W – 4  L – 4	W – 4  L – 4	W – 4  L – 4

Here are the standings after day 4:

	Wins	Points
Blaidd Drwg	30	360
Coltrane	31	400
Annie S.	28	350

Coltrane extends his lead, but Annie is in the best shape for the rest of the games. Here is what we all have remaining:

	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Final 2	Champ
Blaidd Drwg	6	4	2	1	0
Coltrane	9	5	3	2	1
Annie S.	7	6	4	2	1

By Blaidd Drwg

Day 3 was an utter disaster for me. The ending of that Pitt game, well, lets just say I am never picking them again. It was a good day of hoops watching though – lots of exciting, close games to keep the viewing interest. I had a bunch to say about the games today, but I am so pissed off at Pittsburgh, that will be for another day. The bloody carnage:

Coltrane	Annie S	Blaidd Drwg	Winner
Kentucky	West Virginia	Kentucky	Kentucky
Uconn	Missouri	Missouri	UConn
SDSU	SDSU	SDSU	SDSU
Florida	Florida	Michigan St.	Florida
Gonzaga	St. John’s	St. John’s	BYU
Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Kansas St.	Wisconsin
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Butler
Lousiville	Lousiville	Lousiville	Richmond
W – 5 L – 3	W – 3 L – 5	W – 2 L – 6

Here are the standings after day 3:

	Wins	Points
Blaidd Drwg	26	320
Coltrane	27	280
Annie S.	24	270

My bracket is essentially done – I have lost the entire Southeast Region. Here is what we all have remaining:

	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Final 2	Champ
Blaidd Drwg	7	6	3	1	0
Coltrane	8	7	3	2	1
Annie S.	8	7	3	2	1

It is now between Annie and Coltrane for bragging rights.

By Blaidd Drwg

Day 2 was a much better day for picking games than Day 1. There were some tight games and fantastic endings. Memphis came within a last second blocked shot of pushing my record to 15-1 for the day and George Mason made a furious comeback to down the once Tops 5 ranked Villanova Wildcats (what happened to them). The game that hurt me is Georgetown losing to VCU, meaning I lose another sweet 16 team in the process. How about Marquette? Has any team ever been the same double digit seed (#11) in their conference tournament and NCAA Tournament in the same year? They are tough and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they end up pushing Syracuse in a tight game. The results from day 2’s games:

Coltrane	Annie S	Blaidd Drwg	Winner
Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.
Villanova	Villanova	George Mason	George Mason
Xavier	Marquette	Marquette	Marquette
Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse	Syracuse
Washington	Georgia	Washington	Washington
UNC	UNC	UNC	UNC
Duke	Duke	Duke	Duke
Michigan	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan
Arizona	Memphis	Memphis	Arizona
Texas	Texas	Texas	Texas
Kansas	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas
Illinois	Illinois	Illinois	Illinois
Georgetown	VCU	Georgetown	VCU
Purdue	Purdue	Purdue	Purdue
Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Florida St.	Florida St.
Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
W – 12 L – 4	W – 12 L – 4	W – 14 L – 2

Here are the standings after day 2:

	Wins	Points
Blaidd Drwg	24	240
Coltrane	22	220
Annie S.	21	210

It is still anyone’s game especially since my bracket isn’t looking so hot in the later rounds – I managed to not pick the winner in only 8 games, but in 5 of those cases, I had the winner going to the Sweet 16, so that does hurt. Here is what we all have remaining:

	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Final 2	Champ
Blaidd Drwg	11	7	4	2	1
Coltrane	15	8	4	2	1
Annie S.	13	8	4	2	1

There are a couple games today that should be interesting:

I really want to watch Richmond-Morehead St. It doesn’t matter who wins this one, there will be at least a #12 seed in the Sweet 16 this season, but you have 2 teams who are playing on a major high, which I think has the makings of a great game.

Gonzaga-BYU should be a win for the Zags. Gonzaga has become another Purdue for me – the years I don’t pick them to do anything, they end up winning a bunch of games and the years that I do pick them to advance, they get bounced in the first round. This year, I picked them to lose in the first round, so of course they beat St. John’s and should beat an undermanned BYU team.

Cincy-Uconn – nothing like having 2 conference rivals play each other in the NCAA tournament. I think this is the letdown game for Uconn – this will be their 7th game in the last 2 weeks and I think the air finally gets let out of the tires in this one.

By Blaidd Drwg

For the Big Dance, Coltrane, Annie S. and I decided to pick brackets for bragging rights on the board. Here is how we did on Day #1:

Coltrane	Annie S.	Blaidd Drwg	Winner
Vandy	Richmond	Vandy	Richmond
Louisville	Louisville	Louisville	Morehead State
West Virginia	West Virginia	West Virginia	West Virginia
Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky	Kentucky
Missouri	Missouri	Missouri	Cincinnati
Uconn	Uconn	Uconn	Uconn
Penn St	Penn St	Penn St	Temple
SDSU	SDSU	SDSU	SDSU
Pitt	Pitt	Pitt	Pitt
Old Dominion	Old Dominion	Butler	Butler
Kansas St	Utah St	Kansas St	Kansas St
Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
Gonzaga	St Johns	St Johns	Gonzaga
BYU	Wofford	BYU	BYU
Michigan St	UCLA	Michigan St	UCLA
Florida	Florida	Florida	Florida
W-10 L-6	W – 9 L – 7	W – 10 L – 6

The standings after round 1:
Coltrane – 10
Blaidd Drwg – 10
Annie S. – 9

Where it gets ugly is the later rounds – Coltrane only lost one of his Sweet 16 teams, Annie 3 and I lost 4, including one of my Elite 8 teams. That is not good for me.

I missed most of the games today as a result of being out of town. Tomorrow I will be working from the couch enjoying about 87 million hours of hoops. Hopefully day 2 will end up better than day 1 for me.