by A.J. Coltrane

According to John Hollinger (ESPN insider only), there are some fairly hard and fast “rules” governing the NBA Playoffs:

Teams that don’t have home-court in the first round, and lost the season series to their opponent, almost always lose.

Up until last season, teams in this situation had lost 41 straight times. Ouch. Last year, there were two exceptions, but even those got giant asterisks — San Antonio beat Dallas, but the Mavs only won the season series because they played against the Spurs’ backups on the last day of the season. And Utah beat Denver, but only after the Nuggets lost half their team and their head coach.

So it’s now up to 46-2 in the past 48 meetings; there were four occasions it happened in the 1990s, but you’re still looking at about a 95 percent fail rate. I’ll go ahead and bet against that unless presented with a darned good reason not to…

The five teams on the short end of that stick this year are Denver, Indiana, Philadelphia, New York, and New Orleans. Of course, that’s before David Stern gets involved.

Then there’s this one:

Since the league went to a 16-team payoff format in 1983-84, only 13 teams have won consecutive series without home-court advantage.

 …This gives us a pool of roughly 300 teams, give or take. Out of that pool, 13 pulled it off. So the odds of pulling this off are roughly 1-in-20; it only happens about once every two years, and it happened each of the past two…

Hollinger goes on to predict a Lakers vs Heat Finals. I think it will be the Lakers against either the Bulls or Heat.

As far as the “David Stern gets involved” — see the Sonics-Suns Western Conference Finals, 1993, Game 7 — the Suns shot 64(!) free throws to the Sonics 36 en route to winning the game 123-110. That result gave the NBA their Barkeley-Jordan Finals matchup. There’s a chart showing the FT/FGA for the series. For reference, the league average in 1993 was .234 (23.4 Free Throws attempted for every 100 Field Goal attempts.) Check out the “spike” in free throw rate favoring the Suns in Game 7:

by A.J. Coltrane

“Rodman, Mullin, Highlight Hall Class Of 2011”

I guess that’s sort of accurate, Dennis Rodman and Chris Mullin *are* going into the Basketball Hall of Fame — but really… look at the charts, starting with career totals:

That’s one way to look at it; the 7’2″ Gilmore had more points and more rebounds than Mullin and Rodman, combined.

Gilmore *did* play forever, maybe his per game stats suffered:

That one favors Gilmore too.

How about career Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes?

There it is again — Gilmore had more career value than Rodman and Mullin combined *and* he contributed at a higher rate per 48 minutes.

I’m of the suspicion that the Hall wanted to admit Rodman due to his seven rebounding titles, five championships and the fact that he was Defensive Player of the Year two times. If Rodman was going in it meant that the Hall finally had to take Gilmore.

Here’s a piece on NBA.com about Gilmore. Check out the highlight reel, though it only sort of does him justice (and try to ignore the commercial at the beginning.)

The two players directly behind him in career points are Ewing and Iverson. (Gilmore is 20th all-time.) He’s also 5th all-time in career rebounds, about 4,700 (41%!) ahead of Ewing. Ewing is already in the Hall of Fame. 

Really, Gilmore should have been admitted 15 years ago.

by A.J. Coltrane

Joe Posnanski hits the essence of the Carmelo Anthony trade on the head:

Many people are asking whether the Knicks made a good trade for Carmelo Anthony. It’s an interesting question, but I think there’s a related question that’s more interesting. I don’t think it matters too much what good players the Knicks gave up for Anthony. I think only one thing matters, and it is this:

Is Carmelo Anthony a franchise player?

….And so we come back to the question that interests me: Is Carmelo Anthony an all-time great player, the kind of player who could lead a team to a championship, be their best player, be their star? If he is that kind of player, then it doesn’t really matter what the Knicks gave up for him, because he was worth it. If he’s not that kind of player, then it doesn’t really matter what the Knicks gave up for him, because the Knicks are likely to get stuck in a cycle that will make it very unlikely for them to win a championship anytime soon…

I’m very firmly of the opinion that Carmelo is not “The Man”. I started to write a post about how Carmelo = Allen Iverson.. a very very good (and overrated) player who wasn’t quite good enough to get the 76ers a championship.

Then I was listening to Mike and Mike a couple of days ago. They brought up an interesting stat:   there have only been two players traded during a season while having a higher scoring average than Carmelo-  Wilt Chamberlain and Bob McAdoo. I was thinking “Wow, McAdoo is another excellent comp.” McAdoo was a great, physical scorer who played somewhat indifferent defense. McAdoo eventually won championships as the 6th man for the Showtime Lakers, but prior to that his career was kind of a disappointment due to a lack of having “won the big one.”

The third player I’m inclined to compare Carmelo to, and this is damning him with faint praise, is Antoine Walker. Antoine Walker wasn’t as good as Carmelo, though his reputation was similar. They both dribble too much, neither is(was) much of a rebounder or really much interested in sharing the ball or playing defense.

The fourth comp, and the first one I thought of, is Patrick Ewing. Great player, just not quite great enough.

What it comes down to is that Carmelo has one outstanding skill. He’s pretty mediocre at everything else. Both he and Amare are basically one-dimensional scorers.

I don’t think that will do it.

by A.J. Coltrane

I was watching the Orlando-Boston game before the Super Bowl this past weekend.  Dwight Howard got the ball on the low block and put together a series of spin moves and scored.

My reaction:  “That’s the Dream Shake!”

Hakeem Olajuwon has been working with big men since 2006, including Kobe Bryant, Rashard Lewis, Yao Ming, and Dwight Howard. Check out #1 on the highlight reel for a great example of the “Dream Shake.”

I thought two things are interesting from Hakeem’s wikipedia entry:

If I had to pick a center [for an all-time best team], I would take Olajuwon. That leaves out Shaq, Patrick Ewing. It leaves out Wilt Chamberlain. It leaves out a lot of people. And the reason I would take Olajuwon is very simple: he is so versatile because of what he can give you from that position. It’s not just his scoring, not just his rebounding or not just his blocked shots. People don’t realize he was in the top seven in steals. He always made great decisions on the court. For all facets of the game, I have to give it to him.

—Michael Jordan

More recently he has been working with Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, helping him diversify his post moves and encouraging more mental focus.

I thought that was interesting… “more mental focus.”  That sums up Howard’s main weakness pretty well — he doesn’t always appear to be thinking when he’s on the court. (That, and his offensive repertoire has been limited to dunks.)

If he ever does figure it out though — look out.

by A.J. Coltrane

LeBron James put up a 32 point, 11 rebound, 10 assist line on the Knicks a couple of nights ago.  That got me thinking – who’s had the most games with a triple-double and 30 or more points?

My initial thought was “Bird”, reasoning that Magic didn’t score enough to be #1. 

Source – TrueHoop on ESPN:

Bird’s tied for 3rd with LeBron and Magic.

Oscar Robertson was the last player to average a triple-double over the course of a season.  In his career he had more 30 point triple-doubles than the next five guys combined.

Can’t Touch This:

by Coltrane

The chart below shows the ages of the “rotation” players (19+ minutes per game) of three teams I think Lebron is most likely to go to, listed by order of playing time.  I don’t think he’s going to the Knicks or Nets.   (The Knicks don’t have the second star to play with, or cap room to afford it without gutting the team.  The Nets just plain stink.) 

The “21” in the Bulls column is Derrick Rose.  Rose is a potential perennial All-Star.  The Bulls have Joaquim Noah too.  Noah is developing into a very good player. 

The “21” in the Heat column is headcase Michael Beasley.  Beasley is basically trade bait.  The “28” is Dwayne Wade, who has more miles on his odometer than the usual 28 year-old.  If  Wade breaks down what does Miami have to offer?

The Cavs are borderline old and they’re not going to get better going forward– they’re just going to get more old.   It’s time for Lebron to go to elsewhere.  If it weren’t for the shadow of Jordan I’d assume he was going to Chicago. 

I’m guessing Chicago regardless.  My second guess is Miami.  It should be fun watching the circus.

by Coltrane

Dennis Johnson has been elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame. 

Los Angeles Lakers owner Jerry Buss, high school coaching great Bob Hurley Sr., and WNBA star Cynthia Cooper also were in the class announced at the Final Four. NBA veterans Dennis Johnson and Gus Johnson and international star Maciel “Ubiratan” Pereira will be honored posthumously.

I think that his induction was overdue.  It’s interesting though, that when compared to Pippen and Gary Payton his credentials don’t look all that overwhelming:

For example, Kevin Garnett has 2.752 award shares over the course of his career, good for 13th all-time.  Chris Webber is 45th with .588 Shares.  The complete list is here.

Johnson never got much respect from the voters.  Larry Bird called him the greatest player he ever played with.  I don’t know what that says about Kevin McHale..

My most vivid memory of Dennis Johnson was from when he was with the Celtics.  He was on a fast break, and he and another player met at the hoop.  Johnson banged the back of his head on the backboard.  I remember him picking himself back up while rubbing the back of his head.  I’m sure most Boston fans best remember his basket after this steal by Larry Bird during the 1987 Conference Finals against the Pistons.  (Isiah Thomas was the victim on that play.) 

I threw Player “X” in there for fun.  Player X had a condition with his knees that forced him out of the league by age 33.  By contrast, Payton and Pipen played through age 38.  Johnson retired after his age 35 season.

Player X?  That’s Sidney Moncrief.

by Coltrane

Hasheem Thabeet is headed to the NBA Developmental (D)-League.   Thabeet was the #2 pick in the 2009 draft.  He becomes the highest draft pick ever to be sent to the D-League.

The popular comparison in the press is Darko Milicic, the #2 pick in the 2003 draft.  I don’t think it’s the most accurate comparison.  Milicic was drafted as an 18 year-old from Serbia.  He has been in the league six years and he’s still less than two years older than Thabeet, who played four years at UConn.

The better comparison is Bryant “Big Country” Reeves.  Reeves was the 6th pick of the 1995 draft.  He played four years at Oklahoma State and was out of the league by age 27.  Both Thabeet and Reeves led their teams as Seniors to the Final Four, which contributed to why they each got drafted as high as they did.  Both had great size and were prolific shot blockers, but neither was mobile.

In a word, they’re both stiffs.

If there was any question that Thabeet would struggle at the pro level there’s a game that should have raised red flags in NBA draft rooms.  The game took place late in Thabeet’s Senior year against Pittburgh and 2009 #39 draft pick DeJuan Blair:

February 16, 2009:  Pittsburgh 76, UConn 68
DeJuan Blair:  10-17 FG, 22 Points, 23 Rebounds (6 offensive), 38 minutes
Hasheem Thabeet:  1-5 FG, 5 Points, 4 Rebounds, 23 minutes (5 fouls)

It was  a direct comparison in a high level game.  Blair completely dominated Thabeet.  Somehow, the executives missed it.   He must have looked great in individual workouts.

Footnote:  Blair has no ACLs in either knee.  That’s one reason that he was drafted in the 2nd round.  Much like Leon Powe, he slipped due to concerns about his knees.  The Spurs got a steal.