Time Machine: January 1, 2005

by Coltrane

On the old blog I’d do posts with the theme – “Time Machine.” I’d pull emails out of the archives and see how they looked in the current light.

Here’s an email from shortly after the M’s signed Richie Sexson, dated January 1, 2005. For the professional (Joe Posnanski) piece, go to the bottom of this post:

…Ichiro had a “historic” league-record 262 hits in 2004. In 2004 Ichiro drew 49 walks and was hit by a pitch 4 times. Ichiro got on base 315 times, leading the American league. Barry Bonds got on base 376 times last season. The all-time record is 379 by Babe Ruth. Bonds missed that record by 3, but I never heard anyone mention it. Ichiro’s 315 was enough for a 5-way tie for 58th best all-time. Sure, it’s “good”, but is it “historic”?

Robin Ventura... second thoughts about having charged the mound.

As Ichiro approached the hits record a couple of interesting things happened:

1. In the months of September and October Ichiro had a total of 50 hits— 47 singles and 3 doubles. It doesn’t get much emptier than that. Ichiro’s OPS (On Base + Slugging) for the season ranked 22nd in the American league. It’s tough to rank 22nd in OPS when you hit .372, but he literally didn’t do anything *besides* hit singles in 2004.

2. On one or two occasions Ichiro tried to bunt with a runner on 2nd base. He made no attempt to drive the runner in, he was simply trying to pad his hit total. It was a selfish move and it is not “winning baseball”.

Of course, the thing that really bugs me is that I’m going to have to hear about the “historic season” every game for the next 5-7 years, as well as every time Ichiro comes to visit after he retires. Believe me, Neihas is *not* going to miss an opportunity to bring it up ad naseum.

The single-season leaders for Times on Base (Baseball-Reference.com.)

Next subject [Ed: same email] — Sexson/Jacobsen/Leone:

Mike Cameron pretty much got run out of Seattle due to his high strikeout rate. Mike struck out the equivalent of 151 times per full season of play. Here’s how that figure compares to some current and former M’s.

Bucky Jacobsen 181
Justin Leone 167
Richie Sexson 156
Jay Buhner 155
Mike Cameron 151

Be prepared to look at a *lot* of swinging and missing in 2005. In 2004 Jacobsen and Leone both got hurt before the league had figured out how to pitch to them. If anything those strikeout rates are likely to go up. If Jacobsen gets significant playing time in 2005 you can figure on a batting average of about .230. Leone you can forget about, he’s not really a major league player.

In a lot of ways Richie Sexson is the new Jay Buhner. He has good power, he strikes out a lot, and he’ll give the fans another muscle-bound white guy to root for. Figure Sexson for about .260 with 30 HR if he stays healthy. Sexson got hurt twice last year checking his swing– he’s a significant injury risk. The M’s signed him to a $50 million/4 year contract. The other question would be – is a 1B who hits .260 with 30 HR is worth $12.5 million per year? Sexson is now 30 years old — this is also another example of the M’s paying for past performance on an aging player…

——————-

Jacobsen never played another game in the majors. Leone played in one more game — it was two years later with the Padres. (Of course, that’s what tends to happen when your rookie year is age 28 (Jacobsen) and age 27 (Leone.)) So much for those strikeouts I’d predicted.

Sexson hit .244 over the length of that contract, compiling WARs of 4.2, 3.3, -1.4, and -0.3. Fangraphs values those contributions at $14.3m, $12.1m, -$5.6m, and -$2.6m. In other words, the M’s received $18.2 of production from Sexson on a $50m contract. Thank you Bill Bavasi. (Click here for an explanation of WAR.)

I did the digging in the old emails because Joe Posnanki had a really interesting piece today, comparing Ichiro to Nolan Ryan. Both players excell(ed) in at least one statistical category, though you could argue (and Joe does) that neither player was as productive as his reputation would lead you to believe.

As for the picture above, here’s an excerpt from Ryan’s wikipedia entry:

…Before the 1993 season, Ryan announced his retirement, effective at the end of that season. On August 4, just before the end, Ryan had yet another high profile moment – this time an on-the-mound fight. After Ryan hit Robin Ventura of the Chicago White Sox, Ventura charged the mound in order to fight Ryan, who was 20 years his senior. Ryan secured the 26-year-old Ventura in a headlock with his left arm, while pummelling Ventura’s head with his right fist six times before catcher Iván Rodríguez was able to pull Ventura away from Ryan. Ryan stated afterwards it was the same maneuver he used on steers he had to brand on his Texas ranch…

Interestingly – Annie S., my brother, and I were all in the Kingdome to see Nolan Ryan’s last game on September 22 of that same year, though we didn’t know each other until later. (Of course, at that time I already knew my brother, but you get the idea.)

Saving the World Through Salad Dressing

By Iron Chef Leftovers

“I am going to solve all the world’s problems with one salad dressing” –Michael Struk

Salad dressing is usually an afterthought to most people. We buy it pre-made in a jar and it is loaded with stabilizers and salt. What most people don’t realize is that salad dressing is really easy to make at home. My friend Mike adapted the below recipe from the “Le Bec Fin Cookbook”. The dressing is amazing and takes about 5 minutes to prepare.

The Software
1 1/2 cup Good Extra Virgin Olive Oil
1/2 cup Walnut Oil
1/3 cup Verjus
10 Stalks Lemon Thyme – leaves removed from stems
20 basil leaves – chopped
1 tablespoon Mayo
1 teaspoon Dijon Mustard
1/3 teaspoon granulated garlic
Salt and Pepper

The Dressing
Combine everything but the salt and pepper in a blender or food processor. Blend until combined. Taste and add salt and pepper to taste. That is it. It will take you longer to measure the ingredients than it will to put this together.

Notes
If you don’t want to go out and buy Walnut Oil, just substitute Olive Oil for it. If you don’t have Verjus (and you really should in your pantry – don’t know what Verjus is? Click here), substitute a good Red Wine or Champagne Vinegar. You should be able to find Walnut Oil and Verjus at any good specialty food store (in Seattle I would recommend DeLaurenti; over the web I would recommend chefshop.com – which conveniently also has a retail location in Seattle). This recipe produces a good amount of dressing – it can either be scaled down or put in a container and kept in the fridge for 3 days. If you want a thicker dressing, add a bit more Mayo to it.

Very Cool Ornithopter

by Coltrane

I took my WowWee Flytech Dragonfly on a car-camping trip last weekend. It’s an ornithopter that looks like an oversized dragonfly on steroids. We had access to a large open field and were able to get the Dragonfly up to around 100 feet in the air — about the limit of the remote control.

Here’s a short, grainy video by Popular Mechanics, shot at CES in 2007. Note that the pilot is good enough to make the dragonfly alight in his hand at the end.

Here’s another short “review” by a kid who calls himself “Mongo.” He’s actually a pretty good pilot.

Tips and Observations:

1. If there’s enough wind that it’s making the trees move then it’s probably too windy to run the Dragonfly.

2. I purchased the 27Mhz version at Toys-R-Us for $20 about two years ago. It appears that they’re now closer to $40 and only exist in a 49Mhz version. This may partly be a function of it now being September, rather than the Holiday Season.

3. The Dragonfly charges in about 15-20 minutes, which will provide about 7-10 minutes of flight. When it starts to look “tired” then it’s time for a recharge.

4. The toy turns everyone who sees it into a kid again. One time I had a very excited middle-aged guy walk across a big expanse of grass to ask me about it, his bemused wife in tow.

Finally, Two Cats vs the Dragonfly.

Mobile Chowdown V

By Iron Chef Leftovers

I love the idea of Mobile Chowdown – putting a bunch of food trucks in one place and letting people go to town. They do it daily in Portland, SF and LA, but not in Seattle (stupid Flanders…I mean city council and health department) To get around this, we have one off events called Mobile Chowdowns – usually in some parking lot somewhere. This time around it is at Qwest Field:

Mobile Chowdown is coming to Qwest Field north parking lot on Friday, October 1st. Gates open at 5 p.m.!

This works out nicely for me (and Annie S.) – there is also a Mariners game that night. Guess I will be hitting the Chowdown before the game. Tickets are $7 in advance (without the usual Ticketmaster rape fee) or $10 at the door.

Season 7 is in the Books…

By Iron Chef Leftovers

Well, Top Chef, Season 7 is in the books. I will write my observations on who won after the jump so I don’t spoil it for anyone who has not seen it yet.

I will be honest; I skipped the 5 episodes leading to the finals because, frankly, this season just wasn’t that interesting. There was a twist on the final this season which I did like – the chefs had to make a 4 course meal: one vegetable, one fish, one meat and one dessert. There were no restrictions on the vegetable or dessert, but the fish course had to feature Red Mullet and the meat course had to feature duck. The chefs also had to incorporate a couple additional ingredients into their courses somewhere – pork belly, black cockles and cuttlefish. The chefs also had the use of a past winner as sous chef – Hung, Ilan and Michael Voltaggio were available and the chefs drew knives to determine whom they got (more on this below).

Based on the dishes that were produced, it looks like the right person won. Continue reading “Season 7 is in the Books…” →

Playoff Chances?

By Blaidd Drwg
In looking at the AL East standings this morning after the Sox swept the Mariners, you will see this:

	W-L	GB	Games Remaining	Home	Road
Rays	88-57	—	17	9	8
Yankees	88-58	.5	16	7	9
Red Sox	82-64	6.5	16	9	7

The Yankees just happen to be leading the wild card race, so that means the Sox are also just 6 games back from making the playoffs. The 6 game spread between the Yankees and Red Sox seems pretty insurmountable with just 16 games left in the season, right? Well, maybe not.

One thing we need to consider is schedules – the Sox are 42-30 at home this season, so having more home than road games remaining is a big advantage for them. Here are the remaining schedules for the Rays, Yankees and Sox:

Red Sox			Yankees			Rays
Opponent	G	W-L	Opponent	G	W-L	Opponent	G	W-L
Vs TOR	3	73-73	@BAL	3	58-88	Vs LAA	3	71-74
Vs BAL	3	58-88	Vs TB	4	88-57	@ NYY	4	88-58
@ NYY	3	88-58	Vs BOS	3	82-64	Vs SEA	3	55-91
@ CWS	4	79-66	@ TOR	3	73-73	Vs BAL	3	58-88
Vs NYY	3	88-58	@ BOS	3	82-64	@ KC	4	60-85
Total	16	386-343	Total	16	383-346	Total	17	332-396

Obviously the Rays have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, even with the 4 game series in NY. I think if they split that series, the Rays effectively win the division. It gets a bit more interesting between NY and Boston. They both have 16 games left and play each other 6 of those times. The next 6 games or so will tell where the Sox destiny lies – if they manage to take 5 of the next 6 and the Yankees drop 3 of the next 6 (lets say they go 2-1 in Baltimore and 1-2 vs. TB), that would move the Sox to 4 back of the Yankees. Assuming they both have the same record in their non head-to-head match-ups, the Sox would need to take 4 of 6 to force a playoff, a scenario that is tough, but not out of the question.

If you asked me last weekend if the Sox had a chance, I would have told you no way in hell – they had just lost back to back games with the A’s in Oakland and had to come to Seattle where they typically play poorly. Well, after taking the last game in Oakland and sweeping the Mariners and coupled with the 2-8 stretch the Yankees are on, right now I am not so sure we should be burying the body – I think there might be a faint sign of a pulse there.

Observations on Last Night’s M’s-Red Sox Game

By Blaidd Drwg

The Mariners have hit 90 home runs as a team this season, which is currently tied for last in the AL with the A’s. That is awful. To put it in perspective, the M’s have 2 guys who have double digit home runs – Gutierrez and Branyan, and Branyan leads the team with 14 and he wasn’t even playing in Seattle before July.

The Mariners lineup in last night’s game has hit 56 HR on the season, the AL leader in HR as of last night, Jose Bautista, has hit 46 HR on the season. Normally I would use the excuse that it is a meaningless September game for the M’s and they are getting guys playing time. Unfortunately, the M’s played most of their regulars last night.

It amazes me that the Red Sox stuck around the playoff race as long as they did – their outfield last night: Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava and Ryan Kalish, all rookies. It is a far cry from the OF they started the season with – JD Drew, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Matt Tuiasosopo is the new Willie Bloomquist. He is a guy who is probably a good 25th man because he can play 7 positions but can’t hit his way out of a paper bag and is probably a good clubhouse guy because he is just “happy to be here”. Managers love these type of guys and then fall in love with them, finding a way to put them in the lineup on a semi-regular basis. I understand that Tacoma is playing for the AAA championship and that has prevented the M’s from calling anyone up and that Michael Saunders is hurt, but can you honestly tell me that there is no better option in LF than Tuiasosopo? (Rob Neyer had a wonderfully snarky post about Bloomquist here)

Local product Jon Lester dominated the Mariners once again giving up 1 run with 12 K’s in 8 innings. Last time in Seattle, he had 13K’s and took a no-hitter into the 8th inning before imploding.

The game time was 2:23 last night – impressive considering the Red Sox average game time this season is significantly over 3 hours.

The attendance for last night’s game – 19,063. That is far and away the lowest attendance at a Red Sox-Mariners game that I have been to in the 7 years I have been here. Heck, I can’t remember the last time that I was at any Red Sox game the attendance was that low, in any stadium (it may have been sometime back in 2001).

Low Maintenance Herb Garden

by Coltrane

Given-

1. The price of basil in the supermarket.

2. Having no space for a garden, and a lack of desire to do things like “weed.”

I thought I’d give a “self-watering” planter a try.

This picture was taken after I’d pruned about 12″ of leggy stems off of the tops — the plants have grown well enough that the neighbors are taking note of it and dropping hints about how they’d love some basil.

The planter itself has a reservoir in the bottom, and a water feed tube down one side. There are basically “pillars” of soil that go down two of the corners. The soil in the main part of the container then draws up the water osmotically. The result is that the soil is never too wet and never too dry. Basil seems to like it.

What I’ve learned about basil and the self watering planter:

1. Basil hates it (read: dies) when the temperature drops below 50 degrees F. In Seattle this means waiting to plant until at least late May, or rolling the planter inside at night. (My version has wheels, which is a nice feature.)

2. Flower buds on basil need to be pinched off as they develop, at least every few days.

3. Last year I purchased young basil plants in May, and they were small. This year I bought much bigger plants at Fred Meyer in the middle of June. The small plants cost about $1.49. The larger plants cost $2.99. Both of the batches were the same ending size, and I avoided six weeks of “babysitting” by going with the larger, later season plants.

4. Even though the planter is “self-watering” it still needs to be watered at least every couple of days. When the afternoon temperatures get above about 75 or 80 degrees it needs to be watered every day.

5. Basil requires a few hours of direct sun daily. Dawn until about 10:30am seems to work well.

The planter should be available at any reasonably good-sized garden supply store/nursery for about $40-50. Mine allows for a 3×2 grid of plants. Here’s a slightly smaller version. Here’s another that’s similar to mine (note that the caster option is $10 extra.)

Hey Jealousy

Quarterback Carousel

by Coltrane

Team	Checking In	Checking Out	2009 Record	2009 Passing Rank	2009 Points/ Game
Raiders	Jason Campbell	JaMarcus Russell	5-11	29th	12.3
Redskins	Donovan McNabb	Jason Cambell	4-12	15th	16.6
Eagles	Kevin Kolb	Donovan McNabb	11-5	10th	26.8

John Clayton thinks that Donovan McNabb will add 5-6 points per game to the Redskins’ offense.

I always start by assuming that Clayton is correct. Then, if I don’t agree with him, I figure I must have missed something. However —

Here’s what I think:

McNabb and new coach Mike Shanahan will score 3-5 more points per game than the 2009 Redskins. A big part of that will be (or should be) attributed to the upgrade from Zorn to Shanahan.

The Eagles won’t miss McNabb. Philadelphia was 5th in the league in scoring last year, so some regression back to the pack is figured in the chart below. Kevin Kolb will be an All-Pro within three years.

The Raiders will make a big leap forward with Jason Campbell. Part of that will be due to JaMarcus Russell’s release, simple addition by subtraction.

To sum up:

Donovan McNabb — Overrated.

Jason Campbell — Very underrated.

Kevin Kolb — Mostly unknown commodity, but not for long.

2010 predicted totals — something like:

Team	New QB	2009 Points/ Game	2010 Points/ Game	Change
Raiders	Jason Campbell	12.3	17.1	+4.8
Redskins	Donovan McNabb	16.6	20.5	+3.9
Eagles	Kevin Kolb	26.8	25.4	-1.4

Alex Gibbs

by Coltrane

Recently hired offensive line coach Alex Gibbs has left the Seahawks.

I had originally started to write about Alex Gibbs on January 15 — according to the “Properties” of the piece I’ve been messing with for a while. That’s eight months ago. Evidently I think it’s more interesting now that he’s gone.

From Greg Johns, SeattlePi.com:

Of all the offseason hires by Pete Carroll, the biggest and most ballyhooed was the addition of offensive line coach Alex Gibbs to his Seahawks coaching staff.

Gibbs, 69, was heralded as the guru of zone blocking and one of the most-respected assistants in the NFL.

He was the guy who could take late-round draft picks of marginal talent and mold them into a lean, mean fighting machine that would mow down opposing defensive lines with their cut-blocking skills and open up creases to revive Seattle’s ground game.

He was the man excited about the potential of first-round draft pick Russell Okung, the fellow whose familiarity with veteran guard Ben Hamilton made him a perfect fit, the perfectionist who was cussing and yelling and setting a tough tone for Seattle’s rebuilding line at every practice…

Here’s a couple of excerpts from what I’d written:

One of the coaches joining Pete Carroll in Seattle is Joe Gibbs’ kid, Alex Gibbs. Alex’s recent history includes coaching the offensive line in Denver from 1995-2003. In 2004 Gibbs went to Atlanta, staying on as a consultant from 2005-2006. Finally, in 2008-2009 he served as the offensive line coach with Houston. His resume also includes stops in Kansas City, Indianapolis, San Diego, and with the Los Angeles Raiders. His teams are usually among the league leaders in rushing yards…

[Insert Really Cool Chart That Requires A Bunch Of Work That Somehow Never Got Finished Here]

…besides producing 1,000 yard rushers, the teams in Denver were famous for something else — the offensive linemen would consistently take cracks at the knees of the opposing defensive line. Each week the defensive linemen would say: “Yeah, no. I think I’ll take the week off and protect my knees and career.” The Denver running backs would use that opportunity to run wild. Remember when Magic had 42 points in the All-Star game because nobody wanted to get within 20 feet of him? Yeah, that.

Personally I think that strategy is pretty distasteful. I’d guess if the Seahawks win the fans will look the other way. Do the ends justify the means?

The Greg Johns piece goes into some detail as to the whys and wherefores of Alex Gibbs’ departure. It’s a good piece, and well worth reading for Seahawks fans.

I think it fundamentally comes down to just a few things:

1. Gibbs prefers small, agile linemen. Pete Carroll is building a “big” team. It’s a post for another day, but I’ll bet this years Seahawks as a group are on average at least 1/2″ taller than last year, and at least 5 pounds heavier.

2. The Seahawks offensive line is in a shambles, and Gibbs doesn’t want his good name associated with it. (Pure speculation, but entirely reasonable.)

3. Gibbs is too old for this stuff. The man is 69 years old.

I remember seeing a comedian a number of years ago who said: “Ronald Reagan is 77 years old and he has access to ‘The Button.’ — My grandfather is 77 and we don’t let him touch the remote control.”

I guess that’s an old joke now. If Reagan were alive he’d be 99, and he’s been dead for six years. (Sad thing is, I had to go to wikipedia to confirm he’s actually deceased. He basically went into hiding near the end of his life.)

Further Aside: For those of you too young to remember the Cold War — “The Button” would launch America’s nuclear warheads at the Russians. Just so we’re clear. Watch the movie “WarGames” sometime. In real life Reagan was basically the WOPR computer, minus the scary blinking lights. (And no, the computer wasn’t a reanimated hamburger, though that would be scary.)

Back onto topic. I’ll be very interested to see how the offensive line shapes up this year. I’m going to be especially interested to see if the Seahawks employ the cut-blocking tactics described above.

My hope is that the Seahawks elect to knock people on their butts the old-fashioned way, by using the larger athletes to shove the opposition around.