By Blaidd Drwg
Brad Mills is apparently going to move starting pitcher Brett Myers into the closer role for 2012. To me, this move does not make a ton of sense. The Astros traded their closer from 2011, Mark Melancon, to the Red Sox in the offseason. Melancon, while not great, is serviceable and cheap. Additionally, the 2011 offseason had a ton of closer/closer candidates available, and you could easily pick up someone for around 3 -5 million on a one year deal. Maybe the Astros didn’t have the budget for it. They probably have someone in their organization who can fill the role at league minimum if need be, but I guess management doesn’t think they are ready.
Enter in Brett Myers. He has racked up 440 innings over the last 2 seasons with an ERA just under 4, and is slated to make about 11 million next season, probably more than you want to pay him, but you are going to pay him that unless you can find someone to take that contract. I guess that Mills doesn’t think Myers will be better than the other 5 guys in their rotation. Here is who they are going to be starting, with their 2011 numbers. Keep in mind that Myers is the only Astros starter who did not miss a turn in the rotation last season and lead the team in innings for the last 2 season.
| W-L | IP | SO | WHIP | ERA | ERA+ | |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 11-11 | 191.0 | 166 | 1.31 | 3.49 | 109 |
| Bud Norris | 6-11 | 186.0 | 176 | 1.33 | 3.77 | 100 |
| AJ Happ | 6-15 | 156.1 | 134 | 1.54 | 5.35 | 71 |
| Jordan Lyles | 2-8 | 94.0 | 67 | 1.41 | 5.36 | 71 |
| Kyle Weiland (at AAA Pawtucket) | 8-10 | 128.1 | 126 | 1.27 | 3.58 | Na |
| Brett Myers | 7-14 | 216.0 | 160 | 1.31 | 4.46 | 85 |
I can understand giving Weiland and Lyles a shot, they are both young and the Astros are not going anywhere in 2012, so why not. Norris and Rodriguez are both locked in at the top of the rotation, so it comes down to Happ vs Myers. Other than being 2 years younger than Myers, there isn’t much difference between the two; they have almost identical rate stats over their careers. Wouldn’t it make more sense to let Happ, Myers, Lyles and Weiland compete for the remaining 3 spots in the rotation and figure out your closer situation later? I can almost guarantee that either Lyles or Weiland will be pitching in AAA before the middle of May, if not sooner, which will then mean you will need a replacement starter. I would guess that starter would ultimately be Brett Myers.
FlatbreadGarden 