Yu Darvish, the next “Next Big Thing?”

By Blaidd Drwg

There is always the “next big thing” pitcher coming out of Japan. First it was “Nomo Mania”, then it was Hideki “Fat Toad” Irabu, then “Dice-K” Matsuzaka and his mysterious “gyro-ball” and “No-Kei” Igawa and now you have Yu Darvish. Darvish just signed a $60 million dollar contract with the Rangers. The Rangers also had to pay $52 million to Darvish’s Japanese League team as a posting fee, so they essentially signed him to a 6 year, 112 million dollar contract, roughly what Matsuzaka cost in 2007 and roughly the average of what Jered Weaver is making a season.

Japanese starters have largely been unsuccessful making the leap to MLB (there are a number of relief pitchers that have done well though). Nomo is far and away the best and Matsuzaka had a couple of decent seasons (there were a few other decent back of the rotation guys, but no one worth mentioning) , but neither had been dominant to the point of being called a franchise pitcher. Both Nomo and Matsuzaka entered the league at age 26, so let’s take a look at how they did, year by year compared to Jered Weaver. Yes, Weaver had already been in the league 3 years by the time he turned 26, but it is a fair comp since Nomo and Matsuzaka were both expected to be top of the rotation starters the second they entered the league.

Year 1 – Age 26

Year 2 – Age 27

Year 3 – Age 28

Rest of Career

Nomo basically became league average in his 3rd season and then broke down after that, posting just 1 season with an ERA+ over 105 the rest of his career. Matsuzaka basically broke down in his 2nd season and, despite some nice looking numbers in 2008 (thanks to a ton of run support), really wasn’t all that good – he threw a lot of pitches and averaged less than 6 innings a start when healthy. He also probably won’t pitch in 2012 due to arm injuries. It really seems to be a trend where Japanese pitchers come into the league, take it by storm for a year or two and then fade away. These guys should be following a career curve like Jered Weaver, putting up their best seasons between the ages of 26 and 29, but they are not.

I have a few theories on as to why this is:

• They are abused and throw a ton of innings in Japan prior to coming over to the majors. I can’t find pitch counts for Japan, but I would be willing to bet these pitcher routinely through in the 120-130 pitch range early in their career.
• Their conditioning is not sufficient enough for the longer MLB season (the season is longer by about 20 games or 4 starts). Four starts may not seem like a lot, but it is roughly 15% more pitching than what they are used to. To put it in perspective, imagine running a 26 mile marathon and then being told you have to run another 4 miles before you are actually finished.
• They don’t adjust to the talent level in MLB. Basically, they are getting by on raw stuff their first couple of years until hitters figure them out and make adjustments. Once the hitters make adjustments, the pitchers don’t and become hittable.
• They don’t adjust to the strike zone. If you look at the stats of Matsuzaka in his last few seasons in Japan, he walked 84 hitters in 401 innings; he walked 80 in 205 innings in his first big league season. The same hold true for Nomo.
• Their deliveries put too much torque on their arms. Hence the breakdowns at around age 28.

I am not saying that Darvish is going to flop. He shares a lot in common with Nomo and Matsuzaka – they are all power pitchers, they all threw a ton of innings in Japan at an early age, they are all 26 in their first MLB season. Maybe Darvish will be different and have a long career as a top of the rotation starter. Then again, maybe he will fall apart after a couple of seasons.

My prediction: Darvish will have a 135 ERA+ type season, winning the ROY in 2012 and then basically be a league average starter by 2015. I figure he will have ERA+ of something like 118 in 2013, 108 in 2014 and 100 in 2015, getting hurt sometime in 2014-2015 for an extended period of time. I would love to come back to this post in a few years just to see how accurate I am.