The Erik Bedard Trade – Revisited

By Blaidd Drwg

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times wrote recently that Bedard’s recent pitching has been good enough to make it look like the trade the Mariners made for him back in 2008 wasn’t a complete bust. In case you don’t remember, the M’s traded 5 players – Tony Butler, Adam Jones, Kameron Mickolio, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman for Bedard. Except for Sherrill, all of the other players the M’s moved were in their early 20’s. Butler has not reached the majors, and doesn’t look like he will anytime soon. Mickolio had a couple of cups of coffee with the Orioles and is now pitching for the Diamondbacks. Sherrill spent a year and a half with the Orioles before getting shipped to the Dodgers for a couple of prospects. Jones is a regular in the Orioles lineup and Tillman is in their starting rotation.

Here is how that deal has worked out based on wins above replacement from baseball-reference.com:

*Mickolio’s -0.1 figure is the WAR for Mark Reynolds, whom the Orioles received from the Diamondbacks in the trade for Mickolio.
^Sherrill’s -1.0 figure is the WAR for Josh Bell, whom the Orioles received from the Dodgers in the trade for Sherrill.

It is a pretty significant difference in total WAR – the O’s have picked up about 3 wins a season from the trade while the M’s have picked up about 1 win. It is not like either of these teams are on the verge of the playoffs either, so that is not going to make a huge difference. Where it really ends up hurting is when you look at what the M’s gave up. Jones is only 25 and just starting to enter his prime. He is a fantastic defensive CF and figures to man his position for several years to come. Had the M’s not traded him, they still could have gone out and gotten Franklin Gutierrez – and outfield of Guti, Jones and Ichiro would probably be the best defensive OF in baseball. Couple that with the loss of Tillman, whose numbers probably would have benefited from playing in Safeco, who is only 23 and seems to finally be finding his stride in the majors and will probably end up a #3 or #4 starter (think someone like Jason Vargas or Doug Fister), it makes it hard to believe that 4 injury riddled seasons of Erik Bedard could possibly equate.

Just to add insult to injury (sorry, couldn’t resist) the Orioles have paid less salary to the 5 players they received in the trade over the last 3 seasons (not counting 2011) than the Mariners paid for Erik Bedard in 2008.

Even if Bedard manages to stay healthy and pitches like a Cy Young Award contender and Chris Tillman flames out of the majors, there is no way that Erik Bedard for Adam Jones is not a significant win on the trade ledgers for the Orioles.