A Tale of Two Lineups

By Blaidd Drwg

As I sit here this morning thinking about the Mariners game Friday night, I am struck by the lineup they fielded. You have Ichiro and Figgins at the top, Bradley, Olivio, Smoak and Cust in the middle and Wilson, Saunders and Ryan and the back end, Not exactly Murderer’s Row, but it was good enough to get them the win last night after Brendan Ryan, who was batting under .190 going into the at bat, punched a single up the middle to score the winning run.

Talking to Annie at the game made me realize this lineup is pushing the extremes at both ends of the OBP spectrum. Generally the league average OBP is somewhere around .325. You are above average in the .365 to .375 range and, if you are over .400, you are an OBP machine. Conversely, anything under .300 means you probably shouldn’t be a regular in the lineup.

Here is how the lineup last night looked with their OBP listed as of 5/7:

The OBP number is basically how good a players OBP is relative to league average with 100 being league average. This lineup is basically split between the guys who get on base at an above average clip and the guys who are really bad at it. There isn’t much room for middle ground in this lineup, which has a lot to do with why the Mariners are still only in a 3-way tie for 10th in the AL in scoring with Baltimore and Chicago. The interesting thing is that the Mariners are actually second in walks in the AL, only 3 behind the Red Sox. How are they doing it? “Walk this way” and I will show you:

The OBP spread is OBP – BA, it is a quick and dirty way to see how much of a players OBP comes from walks. A value of 100 is considered a very patient hitter, 60 would be about league average and a value of 40 would be a free swinger. I caution you that these numbers are skewed by sample size, but it does illustrate how you can be at the bottom of the league in scoring while being near the top in walks – THIS TEAM DOES NOT HIT. Putting guys on base is great, but it doesn’t help you if you don’t drive them in, which is the Mariners problem. If Eric Wedge handed me the keys to the castle for one day, this is the lineup you would see:

Figgins – 3B
Bradley – LF
Ichiro – RF
Smoak – 1B
Langerhans – CF
Cust – DH
Kennedy – 2B
Giminez – C
Ryan – SS

There isn’t much to work with and I hate Langerhans, but honestly, he is the best option for this lineup right now. If the bats eventually come around and the guys who are walking now continue to do so, this team will have a legitimate shot at a .500 record. If they continue to hit like a bunch of bush leaguers, I will stand by my original win prediction.